Projections of the cost of cancer care in the United States: 2010–2020
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Current estimates of the costs of cancer care in the United States are based on data from 2003 and earlier. However, incidence, survival, and practice patterns have been changing for the majority of cancers. METHODS: Cancer prevalence was estimated and projected by phase of care (initial year following diagnosis, continuing, and last year of life) and tumor site for 13 cancers in men and 16 cancers in women through 2020. Cancer prevalence was calculated from cancer incidence and survival models estimated from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program data. Annualized net costs were estimated from recent SEER-Medicare linkage data, which included claims through 2006 among beneficiaries aged 65 years and older with a cancer diagnosis. Control subjects without cancer were identified from a 5% random sample of all Medicare beneficiaries residing in the SEER areas to adjust for expenditures not related to cancer. All cost estimates were adjusted to 2010 dollars. Different scenarios for assumptions about future trends in incidence, survival, and cost were assessed with sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Assuming constant incidence, survival, and cost, we projected 13.8 and 18.1 million cancer survivors in 2010 and 2020, respectively, with associated costs of cancer care of 124.57 and 157.77 billion 2010 US dollars. This 27% increase in medical costs reflects US population changes only. The largest increases were in the continuing phase of care for prostate cancer (42%) and female breast cancer (32%). Projections of current trends in incidence (declining) and survival (increasing) had small effects on 2020 estimates. However, if costs of care increase annually by 2% in the initial and last year of life phases of care, the total cost in 2020 is projected to be $173 billion, which represents a 39% increase from 2010. CONCLUSIONS: The national cost of cancer care is substantial and expected to increase because of population changes alone. Our findings have implications for policy makers in planning and allocation of resources.
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The global economic cost of treating the 12.9 million new cancer patients diagnosed worldwide in 2009 was estimated at US$286 billion.
“The global economic cost of treating the 12.9 million new cancer patients diagnosed worldwide in 2009 was estimated at US$286 billion.100”
This study's prevalence estimates differ somewhat from those used in published calculations of cancer care costs.
“Our prevalence estimates differ somewhat from estimates used in the calculations of costs of cancer care reported elsewhere (9).”
From Cancer Survivors in the United States: Prevalence across the Survivorship Trajectory and Implications for Care (2013) · cites this paper as [9]
Alternative assumptions about future survival and incidence trends affect projections of cancer survivor numbers less than US population aging does.
“Different future assumptions of survival and incidence trends have shown to have a smaller impact on projections of the number of cancer survivors compared with the aging of the US population (9).”
From Cancer Survivors in the United States: Prevalence across the Survivorship Trajectory and Implications for Care (2013) · cites this paper as [9]
Both this study and the cost-of-care study projected prevalence using constant incidence and survival trends but dynamic population trends.
“In both studies, the prevalence projections were based on constant incidence and survival trends but dynamic population trends.”
From Cancer Survivors in the United States: Prevalence across the Survivorship Trajectory and Implications for Care (2013) · cites this paper as [9]
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- Authors
- Mariotto, A. B., Robin Yabroff, K., Shao, Y., Feuer, E. J., & Brown, M. L.
- Affiliations
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- Venue
- JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2011-01-12
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 117-128
- ISSN
- 0027-8874 (ISSN-L)
- 1460-2105
- PMC
- PMC3107566
- OpenAlex
- W2050056063
- Cited by
- 2,657
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 71 · 2025: 74 · 2024: 89 · 2023: 122 · 2022: 138 · 2021: 231 · 2020: 221 · 2019: 240 · 2018: 219 · 2017: 210 · 2016: 232 · 2015: 198 · 2014: 159 · 2013: 259 · 2012: 105
- FWCI
- 488.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic and Financial Impacts of Cancer
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Healthcare Policy and Management
- Keywords
- cancer care costs, cost projections, cancer prevalence, cancer survivors, prostate cancer, breast cancer, Medicare beneficiaries, SEER-Medicare linkage, incidence trends, cancer survival, health care expenditure
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Health Expenditures, Female, Forecasting, Medicare, Humans, Lung Neoplasms, Male, Medical Record Linkage, Neoplasms, Population Dynamics, United States, Colorectal Neoplasms, Incidence, Prevalence, Survival Rate, Survival Analysis, Health Care Costs, Cost of Illness, SEER Program
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