Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa

“Conversely, Hendrix & Salehyan (2012) find evidence that positive and negative rainfall deviations are associated with social conflict, but abundance, rather than scarcity, is associated with violent events.”

“…therefore an obstacle to the achievement of sustainable development objectives in Africa because they reinforce the vicious circle of poverty and further reduce the access of populations to basic services (education, health, nutrition, electricity, and drinking water) (Hendrix & Salehyan, 2012).”

“In Africa, Kenya has experienced a growing trend of rural-to-urban migration as farmers are unable to cope with frequent droughts (Hendrix and Salehyan 2012).”

“…that weather aberrations—such as prolonged dry seasons, droughts, abnormally high temperatures, or excessive rainfall—are associated with increased levels of conflict (Burke et al., 2009; Hendrix & Saleyhan, 2012; Hsiang et al., 2011; Kelley et al., 2015; Landis, 2012; Raleigh & Kniveton, 2012).”

“Current and continuing debate points out that climatic changes are correlated with conflict risk, with rising temperatures and declining precipitation often leading to armed conflict (Hendrix and Salehyan 2012; Raleigh and Kniveton 2012).”

“…© 2020 Universitas Sebelas Maret In the east African countries, including Ethiopian, climate change and global warming coupled with anthropogenic ecological change effects significantly harmed the economy and livelihoods, lead to community conflicts (Black et al., 2011; Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012).”

“Thegranularity in actions, actors, and spatio-temporal scales has led to the use of event data across many conflict research tasks encompassing both predictive (e.g. Brandt, Freeman & Schrodt, 2011; Chiba & Gleditsch, 2017) and explanatory (e.g. Hendrix & Salehyan, 2012) aims.”

“Competition, especially that for scarce services and other economic resources, is commonly cited as a hypothesis in the link between climate shocks and violence (Harari and Ferrara, 2018; Theisen et al., 2013; Hsiang et al., 2013; Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012).”

“In some regions, climate-driven agricultural losses intersect with political fragility, contributing to civil unrest and armed clashes that exacerbate trauma exposure (Hendrix & Salehyan, 2012).”

“Importantly, these results are more in line with demandbased arguments of conflict, which emphasize agricultural abundance and its impact on violence (Hendrix and Salehyan 2012; Jaafar and Woertz 2016; Koren and Bagozzi 2017; Koren 2018; Crost and Felter 2020; Linke and Ruether 2021) rather than supply-based arguments…”

“Access to arable land and water are some of the resources that are often adversely affected by climate variability and when the access is limited, conflict may arise (Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012; Koubi et al., 2012).”

“Once we have monthly precipitation, maximum and mean temperature data for each administrative unit, we calculate their anomalies as the monthly deviation from the longterm (1961–1990) mean for that month, divided by the panel’s standard deviation [57].”

“The livestock population also directly affects rangelands’ carrying capacity, which is also influenced by the blockage of mobility routes [17,43].”

“This is particularly true for Sub-Saharan Africa where the impacts of climate change are expected to negatively affect water access and availability (Edenhofer et al., 2014; FAO, 2014, 2015; Fung et al., 2011; Mekonnen & Hoekstra, 2016; Pachauri et al., 2014).”

“…of African GDP, our focus is on SSA countries.1 There is a considerable amount of evidence suggesting that extreme weather shocks and social unrest are closely linked in SSA countries through resource competition and rising food prices (Hendrix & Salehyan, 2012; Raleigh, Choi & Kniveton, 2015).”

“A body of empirical evidence points to a set of linkages between environmental shocks and conflict risk (Hendrix and Salehyan 2012; Hsiang, Burke, and Miguel 2013; McGuirk and Nunn 2021), but researchers acknowledge that mediating institutional factors are very important and best elucidated through…”

“A study made by Hendrix and Salehyan (2012) found that rainfall variability has a historical effect on cases of political conflict; in effect, rainfall may correlate with civil war and insurgency; moreover, wetter years are more likely to suffer from violent events.”

“Third, drawing on our focus on Sahara-Sahel transition zones as a key area of interest for security research and policymaking (Detges, 2017; Hendrix & Salehyan, 2012; Raleigh, 2010; Raleigh & Kniveton, 2012), as well as the general interest in the expansion of the Sahara Desert, we retain these…”

“…by many of the same overarching grievances and demands as protests – such as poverty, food shortages and inequality (De Juan and Wegenast, 2020; Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012; Heslin, 2021; Smith, 2014) – riots are comparatively more costly and tend to emerge in response to more existential…”

“…large-scale protest events are more likely to be reported than small-scale events (Oliver and Meyer 1999); more violent events are more likely to receive coverage (Hendrix and Salehyan 2012); and geographic location influences reports of human rights abuses (Caliendo, Gibney, and Payne 1999).”

“Relying on rather narrow time periods, Hendrix & Salehyan (2012) and Raleigh & Kniveton (2012) also predict the exacerbation of small- and large-scale instances of political conflict in Africa due to future increases in rainfall variability.”

“However, carbon inequality indirectly affects macroeconomic stability since it depends on policies emphasizing environmental legislation and cleaner energy, which may have delayed economic effects but are necessary for environmental sustainability (Hendrix & Salehyan, 2012).”

“Hendrix and Salehyan (2012) find that deviations from the annual long-term average increases the risk of civil war onset and violent events.”

“Where agriculture is largely rain-fed, i.e. countries that lack extensive irrigation systems and are not heavily industrialized, weather is crucial, and is also a key to conict probability (Miguel et al., 2004; Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012).”

“As examples, see Adano et al. (2012), Benjaminsen et al. (2012), Butler and Gates (2012), Devitt and Tol (2012), Fjelde and von Uexkull (2012), Hendrix and Salehyan (2012), Hsiang et al. (2011), Raleigh and Urdal (2007), Raleigh (2010), Raleigh and Kniveton (2012) and Theisen (2012).”

“Hendrix and Salehyan (2012) show how there is a nonlinear relation between rainfall and social conflict in their studied group of countries in Africa and Scheffran et al. (2012) remind us of the “possible tipping points” and “possible critical thresholds” that may exist in agents’ behaviors that…”

“Moreover, our paper speaks to the growing literature on the nexus between climate change, weather, and conflict (see Dell et al., 2014; Hsiang et al., 2013; Burke et al., 2015, for recent overviews and Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012 and Miguel, 2005 for evidence from Africa).”

“Moreover, the study by Hendrix and Salehyan (2012) demonstrated that changes in rainfall have a significant impact on socially motivated violent conflicts in African countries, and the occurrence of political social conflict events is exacerbated by significant increases in droughts and floods…”

“The literature shows that a decrease in resources due to reduced rainfall in a region increases the risk of conflict (Raleigh & Urdal, 2007); a result confirmed by the work of Hendrix and Salehyan (2012), and Theisen (2012).”

“One of the defining factors of climate change is the alteration of rainfall intensity [1].”

“In general, climate stressors produce societal stress and violence through their effect on the availability of agricultural commodities (Hendrix and Salehyan 2012).”

“While climatic variability has generally been linked with higher likelihoods of trans-boundary conflict (e.g., Hendrix & Salehyan, 2012) and conflict intensity (Papaioannou, 2016), multiple benefits can be derived from climate change adaptation at the basin level.”

“For instance, Hendrix and Salehyan (2012) underscore a number of adverse outcomes that result from low rainfall.”

“Hendrix and Salehyan (2012) examine whether change in rainfall patterns can affect internal unrest.”

“…inmanycommunities and regions in Africa due to heavy reliance on agricultural production as a key livelihood strategy often results in resource-use competition over abundant or scarce resources (Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012), resulting in some instances in outright violent or armed conflict.”

“Research links climate-related shocks to an increased likelihood of violence, forced migration, and deteriorating economic conditions (Feitelson and Tubi 2017; Hendrix and Salehyan 2012; Plante et al. 2017).”

“…damage the infrastructures; degrade human capital, deteriorate macroeconomic environment and may weaken institutions quality through violence, political unrest and civil war, among others (Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012; Burke et al. 2015; Harari and Ferrara, 2018; Helderop and Grubesic, 2019).”

“, especially AD 1950 and forward) or even shorter time periods (AD 1980 and forward) (Burke et al. 2010; Hsiang et al. 2011; Hendrix and Glaser 2007; Hendrix and Salehyan 2012; Jensen and Gleditsch 2009; Meier et al. 2007; Miguel et al. 2004; Raleigh and Kniveton 2012; Koubi et al. 2012; Theisen 2012), their results f…”

“There is a burgeoning literature linking agricultural income with political violence and social unrest (e.g. Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012; Koren and Bagozzi, 2017; Koren and Schon, 2023; Linke and Ruether, 2021), often concluding that conflict can lead to food insecurity, and that agricultural shocks…”