Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?

Hsiang, Solomon M.; Burke, Marshall

doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0868-3

Cited by 342Transboundary Water Resource ManagementPolitical Conflict and GovernanceClimate Change Policy and Economics

Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?

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Hsiang, Solomon M., Burke, Marshall·2014·Climatic Change

DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0868-3

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Abstract

Are violent conflict and socio-political stability associated with changes in climatological variables? We examine 50 rigorous quantitative studies on this question and find consistent support for a causal association between climatological changes and various conflict outcomes, at spatial scales ranging from individual buildings to the entire globe and at temporal scales ranging from an anomalous hour to an anomalous millennium. Multiple mechanisms that could explain this association have been proposed and are sometimes supported by findings, but the literature is currently unable to decisively exclude any proposed pathway. Several mechanisms likely contribute to the outcomes that we observe.

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Authors: Hsiang, S. M., & Burke, M.
Affiliations: National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
University of California, Berkeley (US)
Corresponding author: Hsiang, Solomon M.
ORCID: Hsiang, Solomon M.
Burke, Marshall
Venue: Climatic Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2013-10-17
Volume: 123
Issue: 1
Pages: 39-55
ISSN: 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
1573-1480
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0868-3
OpenAlex: W2137983397
Cited by: 342
References: 82
Citations by year: 2026: 12 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 30 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 33 · 2017: 53 · 2016: 18 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 2
FWCI: 56.58
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: hybrid
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
Locations: Climatic Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation
U.S. Department of Energy
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Keywords: climate change, violent conflict, socio-political stability, climate-conflict nexus, causal mechanisms, social stability

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