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Cited by 559Political Conflict and GovernanceTransboundary Water Resource ManagementNatural Resources and Economic Development

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Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa

Hendrix, Cullen S, Salehyan, Idean·2012·Journal of Peace Research
DOI 10.1177/0022343311426165
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Abstract

Much of the debate over the security implications of climate change revolves around whether changing weather patterns will lead to future conflict. This article addresses whether deviations from normal rainfall patterns affect the propensity for individuals and groups to engage in disruptive activities such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, communal conflict, and anti-government violence. In contrast to much of the environmental security literature, it uses a much broader definition of conflict that includes, but is not limited to, organized rebellion. Using a new database of over 6,000 instances of social conflict over 20 years – the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) – it examines the effect of deviations from normal rainfall patterns on various types of conflict. The results indicate that rainfall variability has a significant effect on both large-scale and smaller-scale instances of political conflict. Rainfall correlates with civil war and insurgency, although wetter years are more likely to suffer from violent events. Extreme deviations in rainfall – particularly dry and wet years – are associated positively with all types of political conflict, though the relationship is strongest with respect to violent events, which are more responsive to abundant than scarce rainfall. By looking at a broader spectrum of social conflict, rather than limiting the analysis to civil war, we demonstrate a robust relationship between environmental shocks and unrest.

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Metadata

Authors
Hendrix, C. S., & Salehyan, I.
Affiliations
  • William & Mary (US)
  • University of North Texas (US)
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Peace Research
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2012-01-01
Volume
49
Issue
1
Pages
35-50
ISSN
  • 0022-3433 (ISSN-L)
  • 1460-3578
DOI
10.1177/0022343311426165
OpenAlex
W2115231242
Cited by
559
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 25 · 2025: 39 · 2024: 46 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 58 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 38 · 2019: 51 · 2018: 33 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 41 · 2015: 31 · 2014: 38 · 2013: 27 · 2012: 16
FWCI
118.15
Type
journal article
Language
en
Update notices
correction (2012-04-11)
Open access
closed
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of Peace Research (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Army Research Office
  • Army Research Laboratory
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
Keywords
climate change, rainfall variability, social conflict, environmental security, civil war, insurgency, political violence, riots, strikes, community conflict, environmental shocks, Africa

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