Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food
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Provision of food is a prerequisite for the functioning of human society. Cropland where food and feed are grown is the central, limiting resource for food production. The amount of cropland needed depends on population numbers, average food consumption patterns, and output per unit of land. Around the globe, these factors show large differences. We use data from the Food and Agriculture Organization to consistently assess subcontinental dynamics of how much land was needed to supply the prevailing diets during a span of 46 y, from 1961 to 2007. We find that, in most regions, diets became richer while the land needed to feed one person decreased. A decomposition approach is used to quantify the contributions of the main drivers of cropland requirements for food: changes in population, agricultural technology, and diet. We compare the impact of these drivers for different subcontinents and find that potential land savings through yield increases were offset by a combination of population growth and dietary change. The dynamics of the three factors were the largest in developing regions and emerging economies. The results indicate an inverse relationship between the two main drivers behind increased land requirements for food: with socioeconomic development, population growth decreases and, at the same time, diets become richer. In many regions, dietary change may override population growth as major driver behind land requirements for food in the near future.
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In the past 40 years, the cropland area required to meet humanity's rising food demand grew by approximately 30%, despite substantial agricultural intensification.
“In the past 40 years, the cropland area required to meet humanity's rising food demand grew by approximately 30%, despite substantial agricultural intensification [41].”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [41]
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- Authors
- Kastner, T., Rivas, M. J. I., Koch, W., & Nonhebel, S.
- Affiliations
- Center for Energy and Environmental Sciences, University of Groningen, 9747 AG, Groningen, The Netherlands;
- University of Graz (AT)
- University of Groningen (NL)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2012-04-16
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 18
- Pages
- 6868-6872
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC3345016
- OpenAlex
- W2010425532
- Semantic Scholar
- ecf552df63f1b0601291168f7b15344831ee0e92
- Cited by
- 568
- References
- 24
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 36 · 2023: 36 · 2022: 43 · 2021: 43 · 2020: 40 · 2019: 46 · 2018: 50 · 2017: 55 · 2016: 48 · 2015: 49 · 2014: 33 · 2013: 31 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 32.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development
- Keywords
- dietary change, population growth, agricultural technology, crop yield improvement, emerging markets, food security
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Diet, Food Supply, Food Technology, Humans, Population Dynamics, United Nations, Crops, Agricultural
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