Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change
Open accessAbstract
Humans have altered the Earth’s land surface since the Paleolithic mainly by clearing woody vegetation first to improve hunting and gathering opportunities, and later to provide agricultural cropland. In the Holocene, agriculture was established on nearly all continents and led to widespread modification of terrestrial ecosystems. To quantify the role that humans played in the global carbon cycle over the Holocene, we developed a new, annually resolved inventory of anthropogenic land cover change from 8000 years ago to the beginning of large-scale industrialization (ad 1850). This inventory is based on a simple relationship between population and land use observed in several European countries over preindustrial time. Using this data set, and an alternative scenario based on the HYDE 3.1 land use data base, we forced the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model in a series of continuous simulations to evaluate the impacts of humans on terrestrial carbon storage during the preindustrial Holocene. Our model setup allowed us to quantify the importance of land degradation caused by repeated episodes of land use followed by abandonment. By 3 ka BP, cumulative carbon emissions caused by anthropogenic land cover change in our new scenario ranged between 84 and 102 Pg, translating to c. 7 ppm of atmospheric CO 2 . By ad 1850, emissions were 325–357 Pg in the new scenario, in contrast to 137–189 Pg when driven by HYDE. Regional events that resulted in local emissions or uptake of carbon were often balanced by contrasting patterns in other parts of the world. While we cannot close the carbon budget in the current study, simulated cumulative anthropogenic emissions over the preindustrial Holocene are consistent with the ice core record of atmospheric δ 13 CO 2 and support the hypothesis that anthropogenic activities led to the stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at a level that made the world substantially warmer than it otherwise would be.
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Human use of land causes major global changes in biodiversity, biogeochemistry, geomorphic processes, and climate.
“Human populations and their use of land have now transformed ecosystem pattern and process across most of the terrestrial biosphere (1, 2), causing major global changes in biodiversity (3), biogeochemistry (4–6), geomorphic processes (7), and climate (8).”
From Used planet: a global history (2013) · cites this paper as [4]
KK10 predicts land use from population data using empirically derived nonlinear relationships with population density.
“The KK10 model (Figs. 1B and 2 B and D) (4) predicts land use from population data using empirically derived nonlinear relationships with population density.”
From Used planet: a global history (2013) · cites this paper as [4]
There are significant differences in the land-use definitions of different models, with HYDE focusing exclusively on cultivated, pasture, and urban areas, and KK10 on land use more generally, including shifting cultivation and forest harvest along with agricultural land use.
“there are significant differences in the land-use definitions of different models, with HYDE focusing exclusively on cultivated, pasture, and urban areas, and KK10 on land use more generally, including shifting cultivation and forest harvest along with agricultural land use.”
From Used planet: a global history (2013) · cites this paper as [4]
In KK10, low-density populations with high per-capita land use first expand to fill all usable land and then intensify land use as population densities increase over time.
“In this model, low-density populations with high per-capita land use first expand to fill all usable land and then intensify land use (use less land per capita) as population densities increase over time.”
From Used planet: a global history (2013) · cites this paper as [4]
Hypotheses relating human activity to historical climate change have yet to be tested rigorously under the full range of plausible historical conditions.
“As a result, hypotheses relating human activity to historical climate change have yet to be tested rigorously under the full range of plausible historical conditions (4, 24).”
From Used planet: a global history (2013) · cites this paper as [4]
Global land use and population datasets divided into five arc minute grid cells (spatial resolution approximately 85 km2 at the equator) were obtained for the HYDE 3.1 and KK10 global land-use models.
“Global land use and population datasets divided into five arc minute grid cells (spatial resolution ∼85 km2 at the equator) were obtained for the HYDE 3.1 (19, 31) and KK10 (4) global land-use models.”
From Used planet: a global history (2013) · cites this paper as [4]
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Self-citationEllis, E. C., Kaplan, J. O., Fuller, D. Q., Vavrus, S., Klein Goldewijk, K., & Verburg, P. H. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1217241110 · Cited by 812 · see citing works
Self-citationWhen did the Anthropocene begin? A mid-twentieth century boundary level is stratigraphically optimal
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Self-citationUnexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass
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A global data set of the extent of irrigated land from 1900 to 2005
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Self-citationAnthropogenic soils are the golden spikes for the Anthropocene
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Natural and anthropogenic variations in methane sources during the past two millennia
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Constraints on the Late Holocene Anthropogenic Contribution to the Atmospheric Methane Budget
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Anthropogenic burning and the Anthropocene in late-Holocene California
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- Authors
- Kaplan, J. O., Krumhardt, K. M., Ellis, E. C., Ruddiman, W. F., Lemmen, C., & Goldewijk, K. K.
- Affiliations
- École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (CH)
- University of Maryland, Baltimore County (US)
- University of Virginia (US)
- Institut für Küstenforschung, Germany
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Kaplan, Jed O.
- Venue
- The Holocene
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2010-12-30
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 775-791
- ISSN
- 0959-6836 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-0911
- OpenAlex
- W2075746856
- Cited by
- 659
- References
- 99
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 34 · 2024: 47 · 2023: 53 · 2022: 61 · 2021: 66 · 2020: 50 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 48 · 2017: 39 · 2016: 35 · 2015: 55 · 2014: 39 · 2013: 37 · 2012: 18
- FWCI
- 19.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- infoscience.epfl.ch
- Locations
- The Holocene (publishedVersion)
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Zentrum für Materialforschung und kustenforschung (The Helmholtz Center Geesthacht) (submittedVersion)
- Infoscience (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) (submittedVersion)
- Infoscience (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- OPUS (Augsburg University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (119049)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- anthropogenic land cover change, Holocene, CO2 emissions, terrestrial carbon storage, land use history, land degradation, land abandonment, atmospheric CO2 stabilization
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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