Cited by 62Diabetes Management and ResearchDiabetes Management and EducationDiabetes Treatment and Management

A Neural-network-based approach to personalize insulin bolus calculation using continuous glucose monitoring

Open access
Cappon, Giacomo, Vettoretti, Martina, Marturano, Francesca, Facchinetti, Andrea, Sparacino, Giovanni·2018·Journal of Diabetes Science and Technology

Abstract

Background: In type 1 diabetes (T1D) therapy, the calculation of the meal insulin bolus is performed according to a standard formula (SF) exploiting carbohydrate intake, carbohydrate-to-insulin ratio, correction factor, insulin on board, and target glucose. Recently, some approaches were proposed to account for preprandial glucose rate of change (ROC) in the SF, including those by Scheiner and by Pettus and Edelman. Here, the aim is to develop a new approach, based on neural networks (NN), to optimize and personalize the bolus calculation using continuous glucose monitoring information and some easily accessible patient parameters. Method: The UVa/Padova T1D Simulator was used to simulate data of 100 virtual adults in a single-meal noise-free scenario with different conditions in terms of meal amount and preprandial blood glucose and ROC values. An NN was trained to learn the optimal insulin dose using the SF parameters, ROC, body weight, insulin pump basal infusion rate and insulin sensitivity as features. The performance of the NN for meal bolus calculation was assessed by blood glucose risk index (BGRI) and compared to the methods by Scheiner and by Pettus and Edelman. Results: The NN approach brings to a small but statistically significant ( P < .001) reduction of BGRI value, equal to 0.37, 0.23, and 0.20 versus SF, Scheiner, and Pettus and Edelman, respectively. Conclusion: This preliminary study showed the potentiality of using NNs for the personalization and optimization of the meal insulin bolus calculation. Future work will deal with more realistic scenarios including technological and physiological/behavioral sources of variability.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This in silico study developed a neural-network corrector (NNC) to personalize meal insulin bolus calculation using CGM-derived and patient-specific features. In 100 virtual adults under noise-free single-meal conditions, NNC improved BGRI versus standard formula and two literature ROC-correction methods, though errors sometimes worsened glycemic outcomes.

Key findings

  • NNC produced a small but statistically significant median BGRI reduction of 0.37 [0.02, 1.51] versus SF, 0.23 [0.01, 0.99] versus Scheiner, and 0.20 [0.01, 0.95] versus Pettus and Edelman, all P < .001.
  • NNC approximated the optimal correction closely: median ΔBGRI for OPT versus NNC was 0 [–0.02, 0.01], P = .30, while SF versus OPT showed a median improvement of 0.40 [0.04, 1.56].
  • In representative cases, adult#26 had BGRI(SF)=14.27, BGRI(OPT)=BGRI(NNC)=12.10, BGRI(SC)=13.59, BGRI(PE)=13.07; adult#59 had BGRI(SF)=4.01, BGRI(OPT)=BGRI(NNC)=3.26, BGRI(SC)=3.27, BGRI(PE)=3.39.
  • The paper reports that in several scenarios NNC error led to worse BGRI than SF, and that there was no correlation between the optimal correction and the actual insulin bolus amount, suggesting fixed ROC corrections may be suboptimal.

Methods

  • Data were generated with the UVa/Padova T1D Simulator for 100 virtual adults in a single-meal noise-free scenario, with meal amounts of 50–100 g CHO, preprandial BG levels of 60, 70, 80, 100, 150, and 250 mg/dL, and ROC values of –2, –1, 1, and 2 mg/dL/min, yielding 144 conditions per subject and a final dataset of 9963 records.
  • The optimal correction was identified by simulating 41 equally spaced correction values and selecting the one minimizing BGRI; NNC was a feedforward fully connected NN with three hidden layers, dropout layers, 10 inputs (GC, ROC, IOB, CR, CF, GT, Ib, BW, VC, CHO), RMSprop training, TPE hyperparameter optimization, 80/20 train/test split, and 5-fold cross-validation.
  • Glycemic outcome was assessed by BGRI, with between-method differences tested by nonparametric multiway ANOVA followed by Dunn’s post hoc test at 0.1% significance.

Limitations

  • Stated by the paper: this is a preliminary in silico, noise-free, single-meal study in 100 virtual adults; future work is needed with more realistic scenarios including technological and physiological/behavioral variability, and NNC error can worsen BGRI in several scenarios.
  • Stated by the paper: the NNC’s domain of validity is restricted because optimal correction of the standard formula may require all possible physiological classes/typologies during training, and limitations are intrinsically related to the strict constraints of the original SF structure.
  • Evident from the text: there was no real-patient or clinical validation, no CGM sensor error/noise, no SMBG error, no behavioral variability, only adult virtual subjects, and ROC = 0 and ±3 mg/dL/min were excluded; only NNs were evaluated among possible nonlinear machine learning methods.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1177/1932296818759558

Cites

30 of 30 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 6 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data
    § Abstract

    In the in silico noise-free single-meal study on 100 virtual adults, the neural-network-based approach (NNC) reduces the blood glucose risk index (BGRI) compared with the standard formula (SF) by a median of 0.37 (P < .001).

    “The NN approach brings to a small but statistically significant (P < .001) reduction of BGRI value, equal to 0.37, 0.23, and 0.20 versus SF, Scheiner, and Pettus and Edelman, respectively.”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “SF-OPT SF-NNC OPT-NNC SC-NNC PE-NNC ΔBGRI 0.40 [0.04, 1.56] 0.37 [0.02, 1.51] 0 [–0.02, 0.01] 0.23 [0.01, 0.99] 0.20 [0.01, 0.95] P value <.001 <.001 .30 <.001 <.001”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Abstract

    In the in silico noise-free single-meal study on 100 virtual adults, the NNC reduces BGRI compared with the Pettus and Edelman method (PE) by a median of 0.20 (P < .001).

    “The NN approach brings to a small but statistically significant (P < .001) reduction of BGRI value, equal to 0.37, 0.23, and 0.20 versus SF, Scheiner, and Pettus and Edelman, respectively.”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “Overall, according to Figure 3, NNC introduces a small but statistical significant improvement (P < .001) equal to 0.23 and 0.20 if compared with SC and PE, respectively (see Table 1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Results

    Using the optimal correction (OPT), there is a statistically significant median BGRI improvement of 0.40 compared with SF (P < .001).

    “In particular, using the optimal correction, we obtained a statistically significant (P < .001) median BGRI improvement of 0.40 (see Table 1).”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “SF-OPT SF-NNC OPT-NNC SC-NNC PE-NNC ΔBGRI 0.40 [0.04, 1.56] 0.37 [0.02, 1.51] 0 [–0.02, 0.01] 0.23 [0.01, 0.99] 0.20 [0.01, 0.95] P value <.001 <.001 .30 <.001 <.001”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Results

    There is no statistically significant difference in BGRI between OPT and NNC (median difference equal to 0, P = .30).

    “No statistically significant difference between the two distributions is found (median difference equal to 0, P = .30).”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “SF-OPT SF-NNC OPT-NNC SC-NNC PE-NNC ΔBGRI 0.40 [0.04, 1.56] 0.37 [0.02, 1.51] 0 [–0.02, 0.01] 0.23 [0.01, 0.99] 0.20 [0.01, 0.95] P value <.001 <.001 .30 <.001 <.001”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Abstract

    In the in silico noise-free single-meal study on 100 virtual adults, the NNC reduces BGRI compared with the Scheiner method (SC) by a median of 0.23 (P < .001).

    “The NN approach brings to a small but statistically significant (P < .001) reduction of BGRI value, equal to 0.37, 0.23, and 0.20 versus SF, Scheiner, and Pettus and Edelman, respectively.”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “Overall, according to Figure 3, NNC introduces a small but statistical significant improvement (P < .001) equal to 0.23 and 0.20 if compared with SC and PE, respectively (see Table 1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 6
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 3
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Results

    In the representative example of adult#26 (Gc = 250, ROC = -1, CHO = 100), NNC avoids hypoglycemia and keeps BG greater than 70 mg/dL, while SF, SC, and PE lead to severe hypoglycemia.

    “In the top panel case (adult#26, Gc = 250, ROC = –1 and CHO = 100) the NNC achieves significantly better results compared to SF, SC and PE being able to avoid hypoglycemia.”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “Notably, while SF, SC and PE lead adult#26 to severe hypoglycemia, NNC allows to keep BG greater than 70 mg/dL significantly reducing BGRI.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § Results

    In several scenarios, the NNC error is relevant and, compared to SF, leads to worse BGRI values because the model errs in approximating OPT.

    “However, Figure 3 points out that, in several scenarios, the NNC error is relevant and, compared to SF, lead to worse BGRI values.”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “In particular, BG control worsens when using NNC to estimate due to the error the model makes in approximating OPT.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    In the preliminary study by Marturano et al, SC and PE did not perform effectively for all subjects; for a subset of tested subjects, a deterioration of glycemic control was observed.

    “In addition, these methods did not perform effectively for all the subjects, but for a subset of the tested subjects a deterioration of glycemic control was observed.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Marturano et al21

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation
    § Methods

    Dropout layers were interposed between hidden layers to prevent overfitting and improve the generalization capability of NNC.

    “In addition, two dropout layers have been interposed between each hidden layer to prevent overfitting and improve the generalization capability of NNC.24”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [24] 24. Srivastava N, Hinton G, Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Salakhutdinov R. Dropout: a simple way to prevent neural networks from overfitting. J Machine Learning Res. 2014;15:1929-1958. [Google Scholar]

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    A preliminary study by Marturano et al showed that SC and PE are on average more effective than SF, but their performance is strongly dependent on the specific preprandial condition in terms of BG level and ROC value.

    “In this context, a preliminary study by Marturano et al21 evaluated these two methodologies in an in-silico, noise-free environment showing that, despite being on average more effective than the SF, their performance is strongly dependent on the specific preprandial condition in terms of BG level and ROC value.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Marturano et al21

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data
    § Methods

    Hyper-parameter performance was assessed in a 5-fold cross-validation setting.

    “Then, for a given set of hyper-parameters h, block B assesses its performance in a 5-fold cross-validation setting.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § Results

    In an in silico study of 100 virtual subjects in noise-free conditions, the new NN-based method outperforms SF, SC, and PE in terms of BGRI over 24 hours, and is close to the optimum determined by exhaustive search.

    “An in silico study performed in 100 virtual subjects in noise-free conditions, showed that, in terms of glycemic outcomes measured as BGRI over 24 hours, the new method outperforms the literature approaches SF, SC, and PE, and is close to the optimum determined by exhaustive search.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
7 of 7

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • The NN-based bolus calculator achieved significantly lower blood glucose risk index values than the standard formula.

    “The results showed that the NN-based BC achieved significantly lower BGRI values than did the SF.”
  • Cappon et al. used a large training set of simulated data to train a neural network that predicts the optimal value for X to correct Gc in the standard formula.

    “In particular, Cappon et al. [37] used a large training set of simulated data to train a neural network (NN) that predicts the optimal value for X, i.e., the value of X that optimizes post-prandial glucose control.”
  • Although on average the NN-based bolus calculator improved glycemic control compared to the standard formula, in a non-negligible number of cases the dose provided by the NN-based bolus calculator led to worse glycemic control than the standard formula.

    “Although, on average, the NN-based BC did improve BG control when compared to the SF, in a non-negligible number of cases the dose provided by the NN-based BC led to worse glycemic control than did the SF.”
  • The neural network hyper-parameters were tuned using a five-fold cross-validation procedure.

    “The NN hyper-parameters (i.e., the number of neurons per layer and the activation function type) were tuned using a five-fold CV procedure, in other words, the training set was divided into five groups of data, four of which were used for training the NN and the remaining one used as a validation set to compute the mean squared error (MSE).”

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 5

  1. Reiterer F, Proceedings of the 9th IFAC Symposium on Biological and Medical Systems (BMS 2015), 2015, 231
  2. Scheiner G., 2015, Practical CGM: Improving Patient Outcomes Through Continuous Glucose Monitoring
  3. Marturano F, 2017, 17th Annual Diabetes Technology Meeting (DTM)
  4. Srivastava N, 2014, J Machine Learning Res, 15, 1929
  5. Bergstra J, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 24 (NIPS 2011), 2011, 2546

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Cappon, G., Vettoretti, M., Marturano, F., Facchinetti, A., & Sparacino, G.
Affiliations
University of Padua (IT)
Corresponding author
Sparacino, Giovanni
Venue
Journal of Diabetes Science and Technology
Published
2018-03
Volume
12
Issue
2
Pages
265-272
ISSN
1932-2968 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2792894037
Cited by
62
References
30
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 6
FWCI
6.96
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Journal of Diabetes Science and Technology (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Padua Research Archive (University of Padova) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Education
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Treatment and Management
Keywords
type 1 diabetes, continuous glucose monitoring, artificial neural networks, standard formula, insulin sensitivity, body weight
MeSH terms
Blood Glucose, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1, Humans, Hypoglycemic Agents, Insulin, Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring, Neural Networks, Computer, Datasets as Topic

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