Establishing Causality Using Longitudinal Hierarchical Linear Modeling: An Illustration Predicting Achievement From Self-Control
Open accessAbstract
The predictive validity of personality for important life outcomes is well established, but conventional longitudinal analyses cannot rule out the possibility that unmeasured third-variable confounds fully account for the observed relationships. Longitudinal hierarchical linear models (HLM) with time-varying covariates allow each subject to serve as his or her own control, thus eliminating between-individual confounds. HLM also allow the directionality of the causal relationship to be tested by reversing time-lagged predictor and outcome variables. We illustrate these techniques through a series of models that demonstrate that within-individual changes in self-control over time predict subsequent changes in GPA but not vice-versa. The evidence supporting a causal role for self-control was not moderated by IQ, gender, ethnicity, or income. Further analyses rule out one time-varying confound: self-esteem. The analytic approach taken in this study provides the strongest evidence to date for the causal role of self-control in determining achievement.
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Duckworth, Tsukayama and May [2010] show that changes in self-control predict subsequent changes in report card grades.
“Likewise, Duckworth, Tsukayama and May [2010] use longitudinal hierarchical linear models to show that changes in self-control predict subsequent changes in report card grades.”
From Personality Psychology and Economics (2011) · cites this paper as Duckworth, Tsukayama and May [2010]
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- Authors
- Duckworth, A. L., Tsukayama, E., & May, H.
- Affiliations
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Consortium for Policy Research in Education (US)
- Corresponding author
- Tsukayama, Eli
- Venue
- Social Psychological and Personality Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2010-08-05
- Volume
- 1
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 311-317
- ISSN
- 1948-5506 (ISSN-L)
- 1948-5514
- PMC
- PMC2957016
- OpenAlex
- W2121412132
- Cited by
- 234
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 16 · 2017: 23 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 9.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Social Psychological and Personality Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (K01AG033182)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Grit, Self-Efficacy, and Motivation
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Personality Traits and Psychology
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Keywords
- self-control, academic performance, GPA, causal inference, time-lagged effects, within-person change, self-esteem
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