Rejecting or Accepting Parameter Values in Bayesian Estimation
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This article explains a decision rule that uses Bayesian posterior distributions as the basis for accepting or rejecting null values of parameters. This decision rule focuses on the range of plausible values indicated by the highest density interval of the posterior distribution and the relation between this range and a region of practical equivalence (ROPE) around the null value. The article also discusses considerations for setting the limits of a ROPE and emphasizes that analogous considerations apply to setting the decision thresholds for p values and Bayes factors.
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By convention, the ROPE range is often set at half the size of Cohen's definition of small effect size (0.2), resulting in ROPE values of ±0.1 and ±0.05 for standardized mean differences and standardized regression coefficients, respectively.
“There is no uniquely correct ROPE; however, by convention, the ROPE range is often set at half the size of Cohen’s definition of small effect size (i.e. 0.2 [306];) resulting in ROPE values of ±0.1 and ±0.05 for standardized mean differences (e.g. Cohen’s d = group 1 mean – group 2 mean/pooled standard deviation) and standardized regression coefficients (i.e. sβ = coefficient from a regression on”
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Smit, E. A., Milne, A. J., Dean, R. T., & Weidemann, G. (2019) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0218570 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Obtaining Evidence for No Effect
Dienes, Z. P. (2021) · Collabra Psychology · doi:10.1525/collabra.28202 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Casillas, J. V. (2021) · Languages · doi:10.3390/languages6010009 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Kück, K., Naik, B. I., Domino, K. B., Posner, K. L., Saager, L., Stuart, A. R., Johnson, K. B., Alpert, S. B., Durieux, M. E., Sinha, A. K., et al. (2023) · Anesthesiology · doi:10.1097/aln.0000000000004510 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Reconsidering the Duchenne Smile: Indicator of Positive Emotion or Artifact of Smile Intensity?
Girard, J. M., Shandar, G., Liu, Z., Cohn, J. F., Yin, L., & Morency, L. (2019) · International Conference on Affective Computing and Intelligent Interaction and workshops · doi:10.1109/acii.2019.8925535 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
“If desired, we can also use the HDI+ROPE decision rule to make discrete interpretations of the results [42].”
MethodInfluentialdockerHDDM: A User-Friendly Environment for Bayesian Hierarchical Drift-Diffusion Modeling
Pan, W., Geng, H., Zhang, L., Fengler, A., Frank, M. J., Zhang, R., & Chuan-Peng, H. (2025) · Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/25152459241298700 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
“Here, we demonstrate Bayesian inference using an approach that combines the approach combining highest density interval (HDI) and the region of practical equivalence (ROPE; Kruschke, 2018; see Box 1).”
A Meta-Analysis of Avian Egg Traits Cueing Egg-Rejection Defenses Against Brood Parasitism
Samaš, P., Hauber, M. E., & Honza, M. (2021) · Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.3389/fevo.2021.703208 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Pick, J. L., Kasper, C., Allegue, H., Dingemanse, N. J., Dochtermann, N. A., Laskowski, K. L., Lima, M. R., Schielzeth, H., Westneat, D. F., WRIGHT, J. M., et al. (2023) · Methods in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1111/2041-210x.14200 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Behavioral strategies during incubation influence nest and female survival of Wild Turkeys
Lohr, A., Martin, J. A., Wann, G. T., Cohen, B. S., Collier, B. A., & Chamberlain, M. J. (2020) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.6812 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
“We used methodology outlined by Kruschke (2018) and Makowski et al. (2019) to develop decision rules using Bayesian posterior probabilities as a basis to determine the statistical significance of covariates on period survival rates.”
MethodFour principles for improved statistical ecology
Popovic, G. C., Mason, T. J., Drobniak, S. M., Marques, T. A., Potts, J., Joo, R., Altwegg, R., Burns, C. C. I., Mccarthy, M. A., Johnston, A., et al. (2024) · Methods in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1111/2041-210x.14270 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
“…is the quantity of interest and must be pri - oritised in analysis and reporting, along with a discussion on how ecologically relevant the measured effect size is, which must be based on knowledge of the system (see Kruschke, 2018 , for review on meaningful effect sizes in different fields).”
BackgroundGlobal Well-Being and Mental Health in the Internet Age
Vuorre, M., & Przybylski, A. K. (2023) · Clinical Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/21677026231207791 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
“To determine the practical significance of the standardized associations, we report posterior probabilities that their magnitudes exceed the region of practical equivalence (ROPE) to zero ( p ROPE ; Kruschke, 2018) as defined by [ − 0.1, 0.1] (Ferguson & Heene, 2021).”
InfluentialA Bayesian Theory of Mind Approach to Nonverbal Communication
Lee, J. J., Sha, F., & Breazeal, C. (2019) · ACM/IEEE International Conference on Human-Robot Interaction (HRI) · doi:10.1109/hri.2019.8673023 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
“1 around the null value of zero [43].”
BackgroundNeural dynamics differentially encode phrases and sentences during spoken language comprehension
Bai, F., Meyer, A., & Martin, A. E. (2022) · PLoS Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3001713 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
German Vargas, G., Kunert, N., Hammond, W. M., Berry, Z. C., Werden, L. K., Smith‐Martin, C. M., Wolfe, B. T., Toro, L., Mondragón‐Botero, A., Pinto‐Ledezma, J. N., et al. (2022) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.14128 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
“We defined the ROPE based on the variability of the response variable in question as [−0.1 * SDy, 0.1 * SDy] (Kruschke, 2018), where SDy is the standard deviation of either Ks, ΨTLP or ΨP50.”
MethodInfluentialKelter, R. (2020) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Computational Statistics · doi:10.1002/wics.1523 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
“Future research should consider developing new indices or investigating indices of significance or effect size already proposed in the literature, like the region of practical equivalence (ROPE) as proposed by Kruschke (2013) and Kruschke and Liddell (2018), the MAP-based p-value (Mills, 2017) and the probability of d…”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialHow do oncoming traffic and cyclist lane position influence cyclist overtaking by drivers?
Rasch, A., Boda, C.-N., Thalya, P., Aderum, T., Knauss, A., & Dozza, M. (2020) · Accident Analysis and Prevention · doi:10.1016/j.aap.2020.105569 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
“These differences, or contrasts, offer a way to determine the effect size and significance of a factor in a model: the 95 % highest-density interval (HDI) can be compared to a use-case-specific region of practical equivalence, typically centred around zero (Kruschke, 2018).”
BackgroundKelter, R. (2020) · Computational Statistics · doi:10.1007/s00180-020-01034-7 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
“A different widely used approach is based on the region of practical equivalence (ROPE), see Kruschke (2013, 2015, 2018) and also Lakens (2017) and Lakens et al. (2018).”
MethodEye movements track prioritized auditory features in selective attention to natural speech
Gehmacher, Q., Schubert, J., Schmidt, F., Hartmann, T., Reisinger, P., Rösch, S., Schwarz, K., Popov, T. G., Maria Chait, A., & Weisz, N. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48126-2 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
“Future studies should take advantage of the fi ndings presented here and de fi ne a region of practical equivalence (ROPE) to further infer support for any potential null-hypothesis testing 48 .”
BackgroundThe effects of psychosocial stress on intergroup resource allocation
Schweda, A., Faber, N. S., Crockett, M. J., & Kalenscher, T. (2019) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-019-54954-w · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Porumbescu, G. A., Piotrowski, S. J., & Mabillard, V. (2020) · Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory · doi:10.1093/jopart/muaa049 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
“Acknowledging calls to avoid discrete accept or reject decisions (Kruschke 2018) we also examine the strength of our parameter estimates (difference in means and effect size) related to these hypotheses using a Bayesian estimation strategy (Kruschke 2018).”
MethodDeterminants of Effect of Extracorporeal CO 2 Removal in Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure
Dianti, J., McNamee, J. J., Slutsky, A. S., Fan, E., Ferguson, N. D., McAuley, D. F., & Goligher, E. C. (2023) · NEJM Evidence · doi:10.1056/evidoa2200295 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Dopamine regulates decision thresholds in human reinforcement learning in males
Chakroun, K., Wiehler, A., Wagner, B., Mathar, D., Ganzer, F., van Eimeren, T., Sommer, T., & Peters, J. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-41130-y · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Tschötschel, R., Schuck, A. R. T., Schwinges, A., & Wonneberger, A. (2021) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2021.101655 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Disrupted state transition learning as a computational marker of compulsivity
Sharp, P. B., Dolan, R., & Eldar, E. (2020) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291721003846 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
“For hypothesis testing, we defined a Region Of Practical Equivalence (ROPE; Kruschke, 2018) representing the range of insignificant effect sizes, and compared it to the 95% most credible parameter values (i.e. the 95% Highest Density Intervals; HDI).”
ResultEliasen, A. U., Pedersen, C. E. T., Rasmussen, M. A., Wang, N., Soverini, M., Fritz, A., Stokholm, J., Chawes, B., Morin, A., Bork‐Jensen, J., et al. (2022) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2022.03.019 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
“To focus on interactions with larger effect sizes, we defined a region of practical equivalence (ROPE) to no effect between 0.91 and 1.10 on the odds ratio scale (24), and estimate the posterior probability that interactions have an effect outside this region (see supplementary methods).”
BackgroundInfluentialClaesdotter‐Knutsson, E., André, F., Fridh, M., Delfin, C., Håkansson, A., & Lindström, M. (2021) · JMIR Pediatrics and Parenting · doi:10.2196/30889 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
“Furthermore, the region of practical equivalence (ROPE) approach was used to determine whether an estimated difference was of practical and/or clinical importance [26].”
Projecting Flood Risk Dynamics for Effective Long‐Term Adaptation
Schoppa, L., Barendrecht, M. H., Paprotny, D., Sairam, N., Sieg, T., & Kreibich, H. (2024) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef003258 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Unsupervised learning reveals interpretable latent representations for translucency perception
Liao, C., Sawayama, M., & Xiao, B. (2023) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010878 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Williams, Z. J., Schaaf, R. C., Ausderau, K., Baranek, G. T., Barrett, D. J., Cascio, C. J., Dumont, R. L., Eyoh, E. E., Failla, M. D., Feldman, J. I., et al. (2023) · Molecular Autism · doi:10.1186/s13229-023-00563-4 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
“These interval null hypotheses were assessed using a Bayesian hypothesis testing procedure based on the region of practical equivalence (ROPE [136]) and the ROPE Bayes factor ( BF ROPE [141–143]).”
MethodExploration of a novel virtual environment improves memory consolidation in ADHD
Baumann, V., Birnbaum, T., Breitling-Ziegler, C., Tegelbeckers, J., Dambacher, J., Edelmann, E., Bergado-Acosta, J. R., Flechtner, H., & Krauel, K. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-78222-4 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Exploring the relationship between anthropomorphism and theory‐of‐mind in brain and behaviour
Hortensius, R., Kent, M., Darda, K. M., Jastrzab, L. E., Koldewyn, K., Ramsey, R., & Cross, E. S. (2021) · Human Brain Mapping · doi:10.1002/hbm.25542 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
“In addition, similar to Experiment 1, we used the HDI of the posterior distribution and a ROPE around the null decision rule (Kruschke, 2018).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialTsirgiotis, J. M., Young, R. L., & Weber, N. (2021) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-021-05300-5 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“For differences between two proportions, log odds ratios (LORs) are reported.”
MethodInfluentialWiebels, K., Addis, D. R., Moreau, D., van Mulukom, V., Onderdijk, K. E., & Roberts, R. P. (2020) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1037/xlm0000831 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Angelakis, S., Weber, N., & Nixon, R. D. V. (2020) · Journal of Anxiety Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102324 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
The effects of divided attention at encoding on specific and gist-based associative episodic memory
Greene, N. R., & Naveh‐Benjamin, M. (2021) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/s13421-021-01196-9 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
“Following the approach to parameter interpretation advocated by Kruschke (2011, 2018), we specified a region of practical equivalence (ROPE) around 0.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialDynamic associations between glucose and ecological momentary cognition in Type 1 Diabetes
Hawks, Z., Beck, E. D., Jung, L., Fonseca, L. M., Sliwinski, M. J., Weinstock, R. S., Grinspoon, E. A., Xu, I., Strong, R. W., Singh, S. M., et al. (2024) · npj Digital Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41746-024-01036-5 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
“Variation was operationalized with respect to the tau matrix and quanti fi ed using the test for practical equivalence with region bounds 0 ; 0 : 2 (cid:2) SD y h i 91,92 .”
Widespread cryptic variation in genetic architecture between the sexes
van der Bijl, W., & Mank, J. E. (2021) · Evolution Letters · doi:10.1002/evl3.245 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Han, H. (2022) · Epidemiology and Infection · doi:10.1017/s0950268822000255 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“In this context, a ROPE means a range of a parameter of interest that shall be considered practically near-zero or trivial [34].”
BackgroundResultInfluentialG-matrix stability in clinally diverging populations of an annual weed
Henry, G. A., & Stinchcombe, J. R. (2022) · Evolution · doi:10.1093/evolut/qpac005 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Svärd, M., Bärgman, J., & Victor, T. (2020) · Accident Analysis & Prevention · doi:10.1016/j.aap.2020.105853 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
“The ROPE is a range of values that can be considered equivalent for practical purposes (Kruschke, 2018) and was here ́a priori set to +/- 100 ms (for this type of analysis – decided in workshop with experts not having seen the study results before the decision of ROPE).”
BackgroundThe impact of biological sex on alternative splicingPreprint
Karlebach, G., Veiga, D. F. T., Mays, A. D., Chatzipantsiou, C., Barja, P. P., Chatzou, M., Kesarwani, A. K., Daniš, D., Kararigas, G., Zhang, X., et al. (2018) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/490904 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
How do drivers overtake pedestrians? Evidence from field test and naturalistic driving data
Rasch, A., Panero, G., Boda, C.-N., & Dozza, M. (2020) · Accident Analysis & Prevention · doi:10.1016/j.aap.2020.105494 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“According to the methods for Bayesian hypothesis testing proposed by Kruschke (2018), only if the HDI falls completely outside of the ROPE can the null hypothesis be rejected, and only if the HDI falls completely inside the ROPE can the null hypothesis be accepted.”
MethodResultOberleitner, F., Hartmann, H., Hasibeder, R., Huang, J., Losso, A., Mayr, S., Oberhuber, W., Wieser, G., & Bahn, M. (2022) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.14369 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Improving Inferences about Null Effects with Bayes Factors and Equivalence TestsPreprint
Lakens, D., McLatchie, N. M., Isager, P. M., Scheel, A. M., & Dienes, Z. P. (2018) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/qtzwr · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Sokolovič, L., Hofmann, M., Mohammad, N., & Kukolja, J. (2023) · Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnagi.2023.1267434 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
“Since we want to formulate suggestions for clinical practice, we also define the region of practical equivalence (Kruschke, 2018) as the interval between − 1.7 and 1.7 Hedges’ g .”
MethodInfluentialLiao, J., Midya, V., & Berg, A. S. (2019) · The American Statistician · doi:10.1080/00031305.2019.1701550 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
“Alternatively, Krushke and others (Freedman, Lowe, and Macaskill 1984; Hobbs and Carlin 2007; Carlin and Louis 2008; Edwards and Berry 2010; Kruschke 2011, 2013, 2014, 2018) have championed a procedure called region of practical equivalence (ROPE), in which 0 = {θ : ‖θ − θ0‖ ≤ δ} is treated as a…”
BackgroundMethodFacial first impressions form two clusters representing approach-avoidance
Jones, A. L., & Kramer, R. S. S. (2021) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.cogpsych.2021.101387 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
The effect of sleep deprivation on objective and subjective measures of facial appearance
Holding, B. C., Sundelin, T., Cairns, P., Perrett, D. I., & Axelsson, J. (2019) · Journal of Sleep Research · doi:10.1111/jsr.12860 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
“When analysing subjective ratings of health, fatigue and paleness of the images as the response variables, ordinal models were used because Likert‐type scales cannot be assumed to be interval data (Liddell & Kruschke, 2018).”
MethodInfluentialSelective and deferred treatment of clinical mastitis in seven New Zealand dairy herds
Bates, A., Laven, R. A., Bork, O., Hay, M., McDowell, J., & Saldias, B. (2020) · Preventive Veterinary Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2020.104915 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Perceived Emotions of Harmonic Cadences
Smit, E. A., Dobrowohl, F. A., Schaal, N. K., Milne, A. J., & Herff, S. A. (2020) · Music & Science · doi:10.1177/2059204320938635 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
“Evidence for the tested hypotheses will be qualified by the guidelines proposed by Jeffreys (1998) as cited by Kruschke (2018): 1.”
Social norms in adolescent risk engagement and recommendation
Ciranka, S., & van den Bos, W. (2021) · British Journal of Developmental Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjdp.12369 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
The human factor: Weather bias in manual lake water quality monitoring
Rand, J. M., Nanko, M. O., Lykkegaard, M. B., Wain, D., King, D. W., Bryant, L. D., & Hunter, A. J. (2022) · Limnology and Oceanography Methods · doi:10.1002/lom3.10488 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
“To evaluate the significance of the Bayesian results, we report the Region of Practical Equivalence (ROPE), which is broadly the Bayesian equivalent of a p-value (Kruschke 2018).”
MethodKelter, R. (2021) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/s12874-021-01341-7 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
“Second, the proposals based on the region of practical equivalence (ROPE) made by Kruschke [36, 58], Kruschke and Liddell [22] and Kelter [32] are outlined.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialPuri, R., & Hinder, M. R. (2021) · Neuropsychologia · doi:10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2021.108120 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Early nest initiation and vegetation density enhance nest survival in Wild Turkeys
Keever, A. C., Collier, B. A., Chamberlain, M. J., & Cohen, B. S. (2022) · The Auk · doi:10.1093/ornithology/ukac050 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Insect community structure covaries with host plant chemistry but is not affected by prior herbivory
Visakorpi, K., Riutta, T., Martínez-Bauer, A. E., Salminen, J., & Gripenberg, S. (2019) · Ecology · doi:10.1002/ecy.2739 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Richter, T., Geres, L. S., König, S., Braziunas, K. H., Senf, C., Thom, D., Bässler, C., Müller, J. C., Seidl, R., & Seibold, S. (2024) · Communications Biology · doi:10.1038/s42003-024-07239-6 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“The ROPE percentage indicates the proportion of the 95% HDI within this area, which here is de fi ned as a range from – 0.1 * SD y to 0.1 * SD y 90 .”
InfluentialHuang, X., & Xu, S. (2025) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2025.121542 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Williams, Z. J., Barnett, H., & Szigeti, B. (2026) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2025.4809 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
New relevance and significance measures to replace p-values
Stahel, W. A. (2021) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0252991 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“” [7] I come back to these concepts in Section 2.”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialNishihama, Y., Nakayama, S. F., & Tabuchi, T. (2022) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2022.107560 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
- Authors
- Kruschke, J. K.
- Affiliations
- Indiana University Bloomington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kruschke, John K.
- ORCID
- Kruschke, John K.
- Venue
- Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2018-05-08
- Volume
- 1
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 270-280
- ISSN
- 2515-2459 (ISSN-L)
- 2515-2467
- OpenAlex
- W2801776818
- Cited by
- 734
- References
- 51
- Citations by year
- 2026: 99 · 2025: 128 · 2024: 128 · 2023: 98 · 2022: 85 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 67 · 2019: 25 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 41.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science (publishedVersion)
- IUScholarWorks Open (Indiana University) (submittedVersion)
- OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Food and Drug Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Distribution Estimation and Applications
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- Bayesian hypothesis testing, null hypothesis rejection, highest density interval, region of practical equivalence, posterior distribution, decision threshold, p-values, Bayes factor, parameter values
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