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Changing wildfire, changing forests: the effects of climate change on fire regimes and vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Open accessAbstract
Background: Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana, USA) have been immense in recent years, capturing the attention of resource managers, fire scientists, and the general public. This paper synthesizes understanding of the potential effects of changing climate and fire regimes on Pacific Northwest forests, including effects on disturbance and stress interactions, forest structure and composition, and post-fire ecological processes. We frame this information in a risk assessment context, and conclude with management implications and future research needs. Results: Large and severe fires in the Pacific Northwest are associated with warm and dry conditions, and such conditions will likely occur with increasing frequency in a warming climate. According to projections based on historical records, current trends, and simulation modeling, protracted warmer and drier conditions will drive lower fuel moisture and longer fire seasons in the future, likely increasing the frequency and extent of fires compared to the twentieth century. Interactions between fire and other disturbances, such as drought and insect outbreaks, are likely to be the primary drivers of ecosystem change in a warming climate. Reburns are also likely to occur more frequently with warming and drought, with potential effects on tree regeneration and species composition. Hotter, drier sites may be particularly at risk for regeneration failures. Conclusion: Resource managers will likely be unable to affect the total area burned by fire, as this trend is driven strongly by climate. However, fuel treatments, when implemented in a spatially strategic manner, can help to decrease fire intensity and severity and improve forest resilience to fire, insects, and drought. Where fuel treatments are less effective (wetter, high-elevation, and coastal forests), managers may consider implementing fuel breaks around high-value resources. When and where post-fire planting is an option, planting different genetic stock than has been used in the past may increase seedling survival. Planting seedlings on cooler, wetter microsites may also help to increase survival. In the driest topographic locations, managers may need to consider where they will try to forestall change and where they will allow conversions to vegetation other than what is currently dominant.
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“Changes in fire regimes can also contribute to a shift in vegetation composition, as more frequent fires, especially those coinciding with drought or insect outbreaks, suppress seedling regeneration and push, for example, closed forests toward more open forest-steppe systems (77,78).”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [77]
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“— Temperate North America : In addition to boreal forests, the Mediterranean chaparral and temperate conifer forests have also experienced increasing extreme fires in the last decade [57,58].”
Effects of Climate Change on Natural-Caused Fire Activity in Western U.S. National Forests
Heidari, H., Arabi, M., & Warziniack, T. (2021) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos12080981 · Cited by 59
Wildfire Smoke Exposure and Incident Dementia
Elser, H. C., Frankland, T. B., Chen, C., Tartof, S. Y., Mayeda, E. R., Lee, G. S., Northrop, A. J., Torres, J. M., Benmarhnia, T., & Casey, J. A. (2024) · JAMA Neurology · doi:10.1001/jamaneurol.2024.4058 · Cited by 51
Identifying and managing disturbance‐stimulated flammability in woody ecosystems
Lindenmayer, D. B., & Zylstra, P. (2023) · Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · doi:10.1111/brv.13041 · Cited by 49
Nikinmaa, L., Lindner, M., Cantarello, E., Gardiner, B., Jacobsen, J. B., Jump, A. S., Parra, C., Plieninger, T., Schuck, A., Seidl, R., et al. (2023) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117039 · Cited by 52
A Disrupted Historical Fire Regime in Central British Columbia
Brookes, W., Daniels, L. D., Copes‐Gerbitz, K., Baron, J. N., & Carroll, A. L. (2021) · Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.3389/fevo.2021.676961 · Cited by 46
“Historical baselines are also used to gauge departures from historical conditions and determine where ecological restoration or fire hazard mitigation are warranted (Hessburg et al., 2005, 2016; Stephens et al., 2012, 2013; Halofsky et al., 2020).”
BackgroundKarna, Y. K., Penman, T., Aponte, C., Hinko-Najera, N., & Bennett, L. T. (2020) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118255 · Cited by 40
Post‐Wildfire Stability of Unsaturated Hillslopes Against Rainfall‐Triggered Landslides
Abdollahi, M., Vahedifard, F., & Tracy, F. (2023) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef003213 · Cited by 39
“In their study of 203 burned basins in the Western United States (Gartner et al., 2005), concluded that 12% of the observed debris flows were initially generated from shallow landslides.”
BackgroundInfluentialHolocene fire history in southwestern China linked to climate change and human activities
Yuan, Z., Wu, D., Wang, T., Ma, X., Li, Y., Shao, S., Zhang, Y., & Zhou, A. (2022) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107615 · Cited by 44
Anthropogenic contaminants in glacial environments I: Inputs and accumulation
Beard, D., Clason, C., Rangecroft, S., Poniecka, E., Ward, K. J., & Blake, W. (2022) · Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment · doi:10.1177/03091333221107376 · Cited by 39
“The frequency and intensity of wildfires are expected to increase as our climate warms (Dupuy et al., 2020; Halofsky et al., 2020) and so BC deposits on glaciers are also likely to increase.”
BackgroundDickinson, G. N., Miller, D. D., Bajracharya, A., Bruchard, W., Durbin, T., McGarry, J., Moser, E. P., Nuñez, L. A., Pukkila, E. P., Scott, P. S., et al. (2022) · GeoHealth · doi:10.1029/2021gh000546 · Cited by 38
“Ground-based wildfire smoke sampling via dual sorbent air samplers was conducted in Idaho and Washington during the 2019 and 2020 wildfire seasons.”
BackgroundInfluentialPathologists and entomologists must join forces against forest pest and pathogen invasions
Jactel, H., Desprez‐Loustau, M., Battisti, A., Brockerhoff, E. G., Santini, A., Stenlid, J., Björkman, C., Branco, M., Dehnen‐Schmutz, K., Douma, J. C., et al. (2020) · NeoBiota · doi:10.3897/neobiota.58.54389 · Cited by 47
“Large and severe fires associated with warm and dry conditions, more frequent in a warming climate, may also favour insect outbreaks (Halofsky et al. 2020) and, conversely, trees killed by pests and pathogens may fuel forest fires (Jenkins et al. 2008).”
BackgroundShirk, A. J., Jones, G. M., Yang, Z., Davis, R. J., Ganey, J. L., Gutiérrez, R. J., Healey, S. P., Hedwall, S. J., Hoagland, S., Maes, R., et al. (2022) · Landscape Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10980-022-01457-1 · Cited by 38
“As our expanding human footprint and changing climate increase the frequency and magnitude of ecological disturbances, many landscapes are changing rapidly and often dramatically (e.g., Serra-Diaz et al. 2018; Halofsky et al. 2020).”
BackgroundWildfire and prescribed burning impacts on air quality in the United States
Altshuler, S., Zhang, Q., Kleinman, M., Garcia-Menendez, F., Moore, C. T., Hough, M. L., Stevenson, E., Chow, J., Jaffe, D., & Watson, J. (2020) · Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association · doi:10.1080/10962247.2020.1813217 · Cited by 36
Dastour, H., Ahmed, M. R., & Hassan, Q. K. (2024) · Ecological Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2024.102531 · Cited by 37
Climate change strongly affects future fire weather danger in Indian forests
Barik, A., & Roy, S. B. (2023) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-023-01112-w · Cited by 35
Stark, G., Ma, L., Zeng, Z., Du, W., & Levy, O. (2023) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16802 · Cited by 49
“…e.g. removal of rocks, Pike et al., 2010), alongside changes in precipitation, extreme events, and fire regimes (e.g. decreasing vegetation cover, Halofsky et al., 2020; Nolan et al., 2021), we must better understand the resulting thermal constraints on activity in animals (Kearney et al., 2021).”
BackgroundEvers, C., Busby, S., Nielsen‐Pincus, M., & Holz, A. (2022) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire5020041 · Cited by 44
“Chronically drier fuels will prime temperate rainforests for more frequent fire as a result [103,107,108], which will likely burn at severity levels similar to those observed during P2 (i.”
BackgroundQuantifying the smoke-related public health trade-offs of forest management
Schollaert, C., Jung, J., Wilkins, J. L., Alvarado, E., Baumgartner, J. C., Brun, J., Busch-Isaksen, T., Lydersen, J., Marlier, M. M., Marshall, J. D., et al. (2023) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-023-01253-y · Cited by 34
Aparício, B. A., Santos, J. A., Freitas, T. R., Sá, A. C. L., Pereira, J. M. C., & Fernandes, P. M. (2022) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-022-03399-8 · Cited by 37
Gaines, W. L., Hessburg, P. F., Aplet, G. H., Henson, P., Prichard, S. J., Churchill, D. J., Jones, G. M., Isaak, D. J., & Vynne, C. (2021) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119794 · Cited by 41
“Climate change in shifting areas of moist mixed-conifer forest to dry mixed-conifer forests, and areas of sparse woodland and shrub steppe or chaparral are likewise expanding within former areas of dry pine and dry mixed-conifer forest (Littell et al. 2010, Halofsky et al. 2020).”
BackgroundModeling and prediction of fire occurrences along an elevational gradient in Western Himalayas
Bar, S., Parida, B. R., Pandey, A. C., Shankar, B. U., Kumar, P., Panda, S. K., & Behera, M. D. (2022) · Applied Geography · doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2022.102867 · Cited by 38
Disturbance and management effects on forest soil organic carbon stocks in the Pacific Northwest.
Nave, L., DeLyser, K., Domke, G., Holub, S. M., Janowiak, M., Kittler, B., Ontl, T., Sprague, E., Sucre, E., Walters, B., et al. (2022) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1002/eap.2611 · Cited by 33
Kobziar, L. N., Hiers, J. K., Belcher, C. M., Bond, W. J., Enquist, C. A. F., Loudermilk, E. L., Miesel, J., O’Brien, J. J., Pausas, J. G., Hood, S. M., et al. (2024) · Fire Ecology · doi:10.1186/s42408-024-00272-0 · Cited by 51
Silveira, J. S., Paulo, J., Mendes, J., Alves, D., Ribeiro, L., & Viegas, C. (2022) · Expert systems with applications · doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2021.116380 · Cited by 32
FLAME: fire detection in videos combining a deep neural network with a model-based motion analysis
Gragnaniello, D., Greco, A., Sansone, C., & Vento, B. (2025) · Neural computing & applications (Print) · doi:10.1007/s00521-024-10963-z · Cited by 31
UAV Based Spatiotemporal Analysis of the 2019–2020 New South Wales Bushfires
Ullah, F., Khan, S. I., Munawar, H. S., Qadir, Z., & Qayyum, S. (2021) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su131810207 · Cited by 31
Northwest Forest Plan—the first 25 years (1994–2018): watershed condition status and trends
Dunham, J. B., Hirsch, C., Gordon, S. N., Flitcroft, R. L., Chelgren, N. D., Snyder, M. N., Hockman-Wert, D. P., Reeves, G. H., Andersen, H., Anderson, S. A., et al. (2022) · doi:10.2737/pnw-gtr-1010 · Cited by 6
“Changing climates may also cause direct drought-related mortality of large trees that are important nesting/roosting structure (Gutiérrez et al. 2017), as well as large shifts in the forest types that recover (or not) after a stand-replacing event (Halofsky et al. 2020, Peterson et al. 2014).”
Dong, H., Wu, H., Sun, P., & Ding, Y.-H. (2022) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su141610107 · Cited by 30
Northern spotted owl nesting forests as fire refugia: a 30-year synthesis of large wildfires
Lesmeister, D. B., Davis, R. J., Sovern, S. G., & Yang, Z.-Q. (2021) · Fire Ecology · doi:10.1186/s42408-021-00118-z · Cited by 30
“…Davis et al. 2011; Clark et al. 2013; Rockweit et al. 2017; Lesmeister et al. 2019), yet the issue has been debated in the scientific literature, especially when also considering other spotted owl subspecies (e.g., Hanson et al. 2009; Spies et al. 2010; Ganey et al. 2017; Lesmeister et al. 2018).”
BackgroundHaller, A. P., Ştefănică, M., Butnaru, G. I., & Butnaru, R. C. (2023) · Kybernetes · doi:10.1108/k-09-2022-1254 · Cited by 37
Ebel, B. A., Wagenbrenner, J. W., Kinoshita, A. M., & Bladon, K. D. (2022) · Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics · doi:10.2478/johh-2022-0033 · Cited by 36
“Additionally, assessment of functional recovery may need to project hydrologic functional adequacy into the future to account for vegetation or climate shifts (e.g., Halofsky et al., 2020).”
BackgroundAsthma exacerbation due to climate change-induced wildfire smoke in the Western US
Stowell, J. D., Yang, C.-E., Fu, J. S., Scovronick, N., Strickland, M., & Liu, Y. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac4138 · Cited by 29
The state of wildfire and bushfire science: Temporal trends, research divisions and knowledge gaps
Haghani, M., Kuligowski, E. D., Rajabifard, A., & Kolden, C. A. (2022) · Safety Science · doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2022.105797 · Cited by 42
Zahabnazouri, S., Belmont, P., David, S. R., Wigand, P. E., Elia, M., & Capolongo, D. (2025) · Sensors · doi:10.3390/s25103097 · Cited by 39
“Fire patterns have historically been influenced by climate variability, with fires being more common in drier, warmer climates [12].”
System-level feedbacks of active fire regimes in large landscapes
Povak, N., Hessburg, P., Salter, R., Gray, R., & Prichard, S. (2023) · Fire Ecology · doi:10.1186/s42408-023-00197-0 · Cited by 28
“However, high-elevation cold forests in the Tripod region are characterized by moderately infrequent to frequent, moderate-, and high-severity fires (Agee 1996, 2003; Halofsky et al 2020).”
BackgroundModeling wildfire effects on streamflow in the Cascade Mountains, Oregon, USA
Wampler, K. A., Bladon, K. D., & Faramarzi, M. (2023) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129585 · Cited by 32
Mucioki, M., Sowerwine, J., Sarna-Wojcicki, D., Lake, F. K., & Bourque, S. (2021) · Journal of Ethnobiology · doi:10.2993/0278-0771-41.3.313 · Cited by 28
Effects of Wildfire on Rockfall Occurrence: A Review through Actual Cases in Spain
Sarro, R., Pérez-Rey, I., Tomas, R., Alejano, L., Hernández-Gutiérrez, L., & Mateos, R. (2021) · Applied Sciences · doi:10.3390/app11062545 · Cited by 28
“Trends in global wildfire activity are changing dangerously, as climatic conditions due to global warming clearly influence the frequency, severity, and extent of wildfires [4,5].”
BackgroundSolanki, A. C., Gurjar, N., Sharma, S. K., Wang, Z., Kumar, A., Solanki, M. K., Divvela, P. K., Yadav, K., & Kashyap, B. K. (2024) · Frontiers in Microbiology · doi:10.3389/fmicb.2024.1258934 · Cited by 27
Facing the Wildfire Spread Risk Challenge: Where Are We Now and Where Are We Going?
Sun, J., Qi, W., Huang, Y.-D., Xu, C., & Yang, W.-T. (2023) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire6060228 · Cited by 27
“In the literature, this cluster mainly represents research in the field of regional ecology, such as studies related to vegetation after wildfires [23,24].”
BackgroundFunctional traits and climate drive interspecific differences in disturbance‐induced tree mortality
Barrere, J., Reineking, B., Cordonnier, T., Kulha, N., Honkaniemi, J., Peltoniemi, M., Korhonen, K. T., Ruiz‐Benito, P., Zavala, M. A., & Künstler, G. (2023) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16630 · Cited by 31
“For instance, fire is most often attributed to hotter and drier conditions (Halofsky et al., 2020; Xu et al., 2020), biotic disturbances are notably promoted by milder winters (Weed et al., 2013) while for windthrow, the effect of climate might mainly result in a shift in storm tracks (Seneviratne…”
BackgroundParente, J., Tonini, M., Stamou, Z., Koutsias, N., & Pereira, M. (2023) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire6050198 · Cited by 26
Tannenbaum-Baruchi, C., Ashkenazi, I., & Rapaport, C. (2024) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104335 · Cited by 25
Babur, E., Dindaroğlu, T., Danish, S., Häggblom, M., Ozlu, E., Gozukara, G., & Uslu, O. S. (2022) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115939 · Cited by 25
Satellite monitoring of forest fire impact and regeneration using NDVI and LST
Digavinti, J., & Manikiam, B. (2021) · Journal of Applied Remote Sensing · doi:10.1117/1.jrs.15.042412 · Cited by 25
Enhanced CH4 emissions from global wildfires likely due to undetected small fires
Zhao, J., Ciais, P., Chevallier, F., Canadell, J. G., van der Velde, I. R., Chuvieco, E., Chen, Y., Zhang, Q., He, K., & Zheng, B. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-56218-w · Cited by 29
Liu, Y., Li, X., Cheng, Z., Liu, X., Dai, J., Zhao, X., Chen, J., Li, M., Chen, Z., & Sun, Q. (2022) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107881 · Cited by 25
Soil Biological Responses under Different Vegetation Types in Mediterranean Area
Panico, S. C., Memoli, V., Santorufo, L., Aiello, S., Barile, R., Marco, A. D., & Maisto, G. (2022) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph19020903 · Cited by 24
Metadata
- Authors
- Halofsky, J. E., Peterson, D. L., & Harvey, B. J.
- Affiliations
- US Forest Service (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Halofsky, Jessica E.
- Venue
- Fire Ecology
- Published
- 2020-01-27
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 1933-9747 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3000989483
- Cited by
- 640
- References
- 235
- Citations by year
- 2026: 74 · 2025: 142 · 2024: 141 · 2023: 121 · 2022: 91 · 2021: 62 · 2020: 8
- FWCI
- 26.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Fire Ecology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (G17AS00114)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Keywords
- climate change, forest fires, fire regimes, Pacific Northwest forests, insect outbreaks, fuel moisture content, fire season length, fire severity, fuel treatment, firebreaks, post-fire regeneration, seedling survival, forest resilience, forest composition, vegetation change, fire risk assessment
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