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Changing wildfire, changing forests: the effects of climate change on fire regimes and vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Open accessAbstract
Background: Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana, USA) have been immense in recent years, capturing the attention of resource managers, fire scientists, and the general public. This paper synthesizes understanding of the potential effects of changing climate and fire regimes on Pacific Northwest forests, including effects on disturbance and stress interactions, forest structure and composition, and post-fire ecological processes. We frame this information in a risk assessment context, and conclude with management implications and future research needs. Results: Large and severe fires in the Pacific Northwest are associated with warm and dry conditions, and such conditions will likely occur with increasing frequency in a warming climate. According to projections based on historical records, current trends, and simulation modeling, protracted warmer and drier conditions will drive lower fuel moisture and longer fire seasons in the future, likely increasing the frequency and extent of fires compared to the twentieth century. Interactions between fire and other disturbances, such as drought and insect outbreaks, are likely to be the primary drivers of ecosystem change in a warming climate. Reburns are also likely to occur more frequently with warming and drought, with potential effects on tree regeneration and species composition. Hotter, drier sites may be particularly at risk for regeneration failures. Conclusion: Resource managers will likely be unable to affect the total area burned by fire, as this trend is driven strongly by climate. However, fuel treatments, when implemented in a spatially strategic manner, can help to decrease fire intensity and severity and improve forest resilience to fire, insects, and drought. Where fuel treatments are less effective (wetter, high-elevation, and coastal forests), managers may consider implementing fuel breaks around high-value resources. When and where post-fire planting is an option, planting different genetic stock than has been used in the past may increase seedling survival. Planting seedlings on cooler, wetter microsites may also help to increase survival. In the driest topographic locations, managers may need to consider where they will try to forestall change and where they will allow conversions to vegetation other than what is currently dominant.
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“Changes in fire regimes can also contribute to a shift in vegetation composition, as more frequent fires, especially those coinciding with drought or insect outbreaks, suppress seedling regeneration and push, for example, closed forests toward more open forest-steppe systems (77,78).”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [77]
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Duarte, E., Rubilar, R., Matus, F., Garrido-Ruiz, C., Merino, C., Smith‐Ramírez, C., Aburto, F., Rojas, C., Stehr, A., Dörner, J., et al. (2024) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire7070230 · Cited by 22
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“Our findings suggest stand-replacing patches in northwestern Cascadia are currently recovering in similar ways as they have in the past and that the ingredients necessary for forest recovery (i.e., abundant and diverse regeneration) are present, indicating forests in north-western Cascadia are currently resilient to s…”
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“Additionally, research conducted on logging business owners in Minnesota, USA highlighted that the later onset of frost and shorter frozen ground periods not only disrupt wood harvesting operations but also affect the durability and stability of winter roads and ice bridges over streams [56].”
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Hydrologic responses to wildfires in western Oregon, USA
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“Also, these affiliations or authors of these institutes are primarily engaging in studies related to fires and their impact on health, air quality, weather, eco-system, and climate change [34, 47, 60–62].”
Droughts impede water balance recovery from fires in the Western United States
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“Catastrophic fires are increasing at an unprecedented rate in the Western United States (WUS) 1–3 .”
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“Due to the far-reaching effects of anthropogenic climate change, wildfires are predicted to continue to increase in frequency and severity (Flannigan et al., 2005; Halofsky et al., 2020; Hope et al., 2016), and extreme pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events are expected to become more commonplace (Peterson et al.”
BackgroundSamburova, V., Schneider, E. D., Rüger, C. P., Inouye, S., Sion, B., Axelrod, K., Bahdanovich, P., Friederici, L., Raeofy, Y., Berli, M., et al. (2023) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire6050186 · Cited by 17
Designing Equitable, Transparent Community-Engaged Disaster Research
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Human and natural resource exposure to extreme drought at 1.0 °C–4.0 °C warming levels
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“Limited water resources and increased evaporative demand advance tree mortality, fueling increasingly catastrophic wildfires (van Mantgem et al 2009, Ruffault et al 2018, Stephens et al 2018, Brando et al 2020, Halofsky et al 2020).”
BackgroundThe response and management of species sensitive to altered fire regimes
Lindenmayer, D. B., Zylstra, P., DellaSala, D. A., Taylor, C., & Legge, S. (2025) · Nature Reviews Biodiversity · doi:10.1038/s44358-025-00086-1 · Cited by 14
“In some cases, generalizations are limited by the high concentration of studies in North America (60% (ref.”
InfluentialLinking Fire, Food Webs, and Fish in Stream Ecosystems
Roon, D. A., Bellmore, J. R., Benjamin, J. R., Robinne, F., Flitcroft, R. L., Compton, J. E., Ebersole, J. L., Dunham, J. B., & Bladon, K. D. (2025) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-024-00955-4 · Cited by 17
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Drinking water under fire: Water utilities' vulnerability to wildfires in the Pacific Northwest
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“…with decades of historical fire suppression, have in part supported larger fires and are partially to blame for the severe wildfires seasons the PNW has recently experienced (Abatzoglou et al., 2021; Abatzoglou & Williams, 2016; Halofsky et al., 2020; Keane et al., 2019; Littell et al., 2009).”
Busby, S., Klock, A. M., & Fried, J. S. (2023) · Fire Ecology · doi:10.1186/s42408-023-00219-x · Cited by 13
“Antecedentes Seis megaincendios sincrónicos de alta severidad y conducidos por el viento, quemaron más de 300 mil ha de bosques templados mésicos en las montañas West Cascades en el noreste de los estados de Oregón y el sudeste de Washington (EEUU) a principios de septiembre de 2020.”
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Lindenmayer, D. B., Bowd, E., & Gibbons, P. (2022) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2021.0082 · Cited by 20
“These include mixed conifer forests such as coastal Douglas fir/western red cedar/western hemlock forests in western North America ([17], lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var.”
BackgroundInfluentialManzo, S., Nicholson, E., Devereux, Z., Fisher, R., Brown, C. W., Scott, P., & Shaffer, H. B. (2021) · Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management · doi:10.3996/jfwm-20-094 · Cited by 13
“Large and severe fires associated with warm, dry conditions are also expected to increase in frequency with climate change in Washington and Oregon, the northernmost range of NPT (Halofsky et al. 2020).”
BackgroundDetermination of Firebrand Characteristics Using Thermal Videos
Prohanov, S., Filkov, A., Kasymov, D., Agafontsev, M., & Reyno, V. (2020) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire3040068 · Cited by 13
Vose, J. M., Peterson, D. L., Fettig, C. J., Halofsky, J. E., Hiers, J. K., Keane, R. E., Loehman, R. A., & Stambaugh, M. C. (2021) · Managing forest ecosystems · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-73267-7_12 · Cited by 15
Self-citationMachine learning based risk analysis and predictive modeling of structure fire related casualties
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“The analysis aimed to provide insights into the development trajectory of forest fire prediction and inform future research directions.”
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“Consequently, a wildfire can engulf large areas, and threatening lives (Carroll et al., 2004) and natural resources (Shin et al., 2019; Halofsky et al., 2020).”
Turney, F., Saide, P., Munoz, P. A. J., Muñoz‐Esparza, D., Hyer, E., Peterson, D., Frediani, M., Juliano, T., DeCastro, A. L., Kosović, B., et al. (2023) · Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2023jd038873 · Cited by 12
Self-citationCritical climate thresholds for fire in wet, temperate forests
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“…mediates the response to fire is becoming increasingly important as the size and frequency of wildfires increase across the western U.S. and other regions globally (Bowd et al., 2021; Busby et al., 2020; Donato et al., 2009; Gustafsson et al., 2021; Halofsky et al., 2020; McCord et al., 2019).”
BackgroundAdaptive Governance in Fire-Prone Landscapes
Platt, E. K., Charnley, S., Bailey, J. D., & Cramer, L. A. (2022) · Society & Natural Resources · doi:10.1080/08941920.2022.2035872 · Cited by 19
“Wildfire has become a major driver of ecological change across the western United States (e.g., Halofsky, Peterson, and Harvey 2020).”
BackgroundEvidence of Smoke From Wildland Fire in Surface Water of an Unburned Watershed
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“Wildland fires cause major alterations to the biogeochemistry of ecosystems and are anticipated to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change (Dupuy et al., 2020; Halofsky et al., 2020; Smith et al., 2020).”
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“In these instances, significant changes to stand structure, composition, and function can occur, with longer term eco-system conversion (e.g., forest to grassland) being a possible outcome in extreme cases (Halofsky et al., 2020; Turner et al., 2019).”
Self-citationThe impacts of fire use in the Brazilian Amazon: a bibliometric analysis
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Forest Carbon Storage in the Western United States: Distribution, Drivers, and Trends
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“This is likely due to fires being characteristically large and severe when they occur (Halofsky et al., 2020).”
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“Studies suggests that a reason for the increase in fire risk in different parts of the world is attributable to changes in climate extremes due to human induced changes [6, 7].”
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“The authors in [4] performed their analysis over the Pacific Northwest, USA for finding the effects of climate change on fire regimes.”
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Extreme fire severity interacts with seed traits to moderate post‐fire species assemblages
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Wildfires and Climate Change in the Ukrainian Polissia During 2001–2023
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Optimizing fuel treatments for community wildfire mitigation planning
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Self-citationThe impact of climate change on endangered plants and lichen
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CNN based Real-time Forest Fire Detection System for Low-power Embedded Devices
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Metadata
- Authors
- Halofsky, J. E., Peterson, D. L., & Harvey, B. J.
- Affiliations
- US Forest Service (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Halofsky, Jessica E.
- Venue
- Fire Ecology
- Published
- 2020-01-27
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 1933-9747 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3000989483
- Cited by
- 640
- References
- 235
- Citations by year
- 2026: 74 · 2025: 142 · 2024: 141 · 2023: 121 · 2022: 91 · 2021: 62 · 2020: 8
- FWCI
- 26.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Fire Ecology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (G17AS00114)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Keywords
- climate change, forest fires, fire regimes, Pacific Northwest forests, insect outbreaks, fuel moisture content, fire season length, fire severity, fuel treatment, firebreaks, post-fire regeneration, seedling survival, forest resilience, forest composition, vegetation change, fire risk assessment
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