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Changing wildfire, changing forests: the effects of climate change on fire regimes and vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA
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Background: Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana, USA) have been immense in recent years, capturing the attention of resource managers, fire scientists, and the general public. This paper synthesizes understanding of the potential effects of changing climate and fire regimes on Pacific Northwest forests, including effects on disturbance and stress interactions, forest structure and composition, and post-fire ecological processes. We frame this information in a risk assessment context, and conclude with management implications and future research needs. Results: Large and severe fires in the Pacific Northwest are associated with warm and dry conditions, and such conditions will likely occur with increasing frequency in a warming climate. According to projections based on historical records, current trends, and simulation modeling, protracted warmer and drier conditions will drive lower fuel moisture and longer fire seasons in the future, likely increasing the frequency and extent of fires compared to the twentieth century. Interactions between fire and other disturbances, such as drought and insect outbreaks, are likely to be the primary drivers of ecosystem change in a warming climate. Reburns are also likely to occur more frequently with warming and drought, with potential effects on tree regeneration and species composition. Hotter, drier sites may be particularly at risk for regeneration failures. Conclusion: Resource managers will likely be unable to affect the total area burned by fire, as this trend is driven strongly by climate. However, fuel treatments, when implemented in a spatially strategic manner, can help to decrease fire intensity and severity and improve forest resilience to fire, insects, and drought. Where fuel treatments are less effective (wetter, high-elevation, and coastal forests), managers may consider implementing fuel breaks around high-value resources. When and where post-fire planting is an option, planting different genetic stock than has been used in the past may increase seedling survival. Planting seedlings on cooler, wetter microsites may also help to increase survival. In the driest topographic locations, managers may need to consider where they will try to forestall change and where they will allow conversions to vegetation other than what is currently dominant.
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“Changes in fire regimes can also contribute to a shift in vegetation composition, as more frequent fires, especially those coinciding with drought or insect outbreaks, suppress seedling regeneration and push, for example, closed forests toward more open forest-steppe systems (77,78).”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [77]
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“As a result, mi-croclimatic factors such as light and moisture differ across the postfire landscape and substantially influence initial vegetation regeneration (Harvey et al. 2016; Donato et al. 2016; Halofsky et al. 2020).”
Kilning with smoke-affected air impacts the chemical and aromatic qualities of Cascade hops.
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“…globally is changing, with climate change increasing fire activity in areas that have historically experienced relatively little fire (e.g., Halofsky et al. 2020, Jain et al. 2024; Krawchuk et al. 2009; Senande-Rivera et al. 2022) while increased agricultural activity reduces fire…”
Barnes, M., Roebuck, A., Grieger, S., Aronstein, P., Garayburu‐Caruso, V. A., Munson, K. M., Young, R., Bladon, K. D., Bailey, J. D., Graham, E. B., et al. (2025) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-22-4491-2025 · Cited by 1
“This response is important to note as shifts in fire severity do not occur uniformly across all ecosystem types (Francis et al., 2023; Halofsky et al., 2020; Reilly et al., 2017), which may influence post-fire P dynamics across ecosystems.”
Meraj, G., Hashimoto, S., Dasgupta, R., & Mitra, B. (2025) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.70098
“Similarly, Halofsky et al. (2020) demonstrated that climate change, particularly increased temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, has led to longer dry seasons and more erratic weather patterns, ultimately contributing to the increasing occurrence and spread of fires.”
Alhaj-Khalaf, M. W., Shataee, S., Jahdi, R., & Jolly, W. M. (2025) · European Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1007/s10342-025-01804-2
“In addition, climate change is projected to lead to warmer and drier conditions, signifi - cantly impacting wildfire regimes (Halofsky et al. 2020 ).”
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“Studies predict a fourfold increase in very large fires ( > 5000 ha) between 2041–2070 and 1971–2000 [1].”
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“Fire has been a consistent feature on landscapes across the western United States for centuries (Bowman et al. 2011; Halofsky et al. 2020 ).”
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“…al., 2021; Higuera and Abatzoglou, 2021) due to a legacy of fuel build-up from previous management action (Haugo et al., 2019; Zald and Dunn, 2018), encroachment of the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) (Radeloff et al., 2018), and climate change (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016; Halofsky et al., 2020).”
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“The compound effect of these factors is impacting ecosystems and biodiversity [13,14].”
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“Prescribed wildfire burns have been touted as beneficial to the ecosystem, and might reduce the risk of more severe naturally born wildfires (Halofsky et al. 2020).”
Has climate change affected the fire regimes in semi-arid areas of northeastern Iran?
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“…significant relationships with the climate change; So that the years of severe, large, and widespread fires were associated with the severe drought and hot conditions, which significantly had the positive relationships with the increasing temperature (Sibold and Veblen 2006; Halofsky et al. 2020).”
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“However, tropical rainforests are also at risk of forest and land fires during the dry season (Suyatno, 2015), which can be influenced by climate change (Halofsky et al ., 2020).”
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“…conditions and increased fire activity and intensity, making the 2015 fire season the worst overall in state history, painfully revealing the hazards and challenges that Washingtonians and WA DNR would face as the era of megafires progressed (WA DNR 2017a; Halofsky, Peterson, and Harvey 2020).”
BackgroundPérez-Bertozzi, L., Vega-Araya, M., Díaz-Orias, J., & Guadamuz-Eras, D. (2024) · Revista de Ciencias Ambientales · doi:10.15359/rca.58-1.12
“…(IV), que permiten correlacionar parámetros biofí-sicos de la vegetación, siendo el Índice “ Normalized Difference Vegetation Index” (NDVI, siglas en inglés), uno de los más comúnmente utilizados para estudios espacio-temporales del comportamiento de la vegetación (Halofsky et al., 2020).”
BackgroundInfluentialKvarnlöf, L., & Ekholm, S. (2023) · Sociologisk forskning · doi:10.37062/sf.60.25401
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Fajardo-Cantos, Á., Moya, D., Lucas‐Borja, M. E., Plaza‐Álvarez, P. A., Peña‐Molina, E., Gonzalez-Romero, J., & Heras, J. D. L. (2023) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire6080283 · Cited by 1
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Busby, S., & Holz, A. (2022) · Frontiers in Forests and Global Change · doi:10.3389/ffgc.2022.890893
Ribeiro, R. R. R., Trejo-Rangel, M. A., & Sulaiman, S. N. (2021) · Territorium · doi:10.14195/1647-7723_29-1_5
“This has been reported in different regions of the world like Asia, North America, Europe, and the United States (Liang et al., 2017; Duane et al., 2019; Halofsky et al., 2020; Stephens et al., 2020; Vilà-Vilardell et al., 2020).”
BackgroundEvidence of wildfire smoke in surface water of an unburned watershed
Evans, J., Norman, A., & Reid, M. (2021) · doi:10.1002/essoar.10506718.1
“Smoke can be transported thousands of kilometers (Duck et al., 2007; Hung et al., 2020) and persist for months (Yu et al., 2019).”
BackgroundJahami, M., & Khandelwal, B. (2026) · Biomass and Bioenergy · doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2026.109324
Simpson, M. G., Kertis, J. A., Acker, S. A., Hochhalter, P. A., Bell, D., Gregory, M., & Demeo, T. (2026) · doi:10.2737/pnw-gtr-1041
Rusere, F., Greeves, S., Stanley, M. F., Logan, J. A., Moon, S., Seamon, E., Alessa, L., Kliskey, A., & Smith, A. M. S. (2026) · Safety Science · doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2026.107404
Boone, K., Hall, S., Kruger, C., Bernardita Sallato, C., & Yorgey, G. (2026) · Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development · doi:10.5304/jafscd.2026.154.018
Cherif, A., Chaudhry, S., & Akhtar, S. (2024) · International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications · doi:10.14569/ijacsa.2024.01510119
“Recent studies have * Corresponding authors. indicated that forest fires and climate change are related [8].”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Halofsky, J. E., Peterson, D. L., & Harvey, B. J.
- Affiliations
- US Forest Service (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Halofsky, Jessica E.
- Venue
- Fire Ecology
- Published
- 2020-01-27
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 1933-9747 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3000989483
- Cited by
- 640
- References
- 235
- Citations by year
- 2026: 74 · 2025: 142 · 2024: 141 · 2023: 121 · 2022: 91 · 2021: 62 · 2020: 8
- FWCI
- 26.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Fire Ecology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (G17AS00114)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Keywords
- climate change, forest fires, fire regimes, Pacific Northwest forests, insect outbreaks, fuel moisture content, fire season length, fire severity, fuel treatment, firebreaks, post-fire regeneration, seedling survival, forest resilience, forest composition, vegetation change, fire risk assessment
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