Cited by 640Fire effects on ecosystemsForest Management and PolicyRangeland and Wildlife Management

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Changing wildfire, changing forests: the effects of climate change on fire regimes and vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA

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Halofsky, Jessica E., Peterson, David L., Harvey, Brian J.·2020·Fire Ecology

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Abstract

Background: Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana, USA) have been immense in recent years, capturing the attention of resource managers, fire scientists, and the general public. This paper synthesizes understanding of the potential effects of changing climate and fire regimes on Pacific Northwest forests, including effects on disturbance and stress interactions, forest structure and composition, and post-fire ecological processes. We frame this information in a risk assessment context, and conclude with management implications and future research needs. Results: Large and severe fires in the Pacific Northwest are associated with warm and dry conditions, and such conditions will likely occur with increasing frequency in a warming climate. According to projections based on historical records, current trends, and simulation modeling, protracted warmer and drier conditions will drive lower fuel moisture and longer fire seasons in the future, likely increasing the frequency and extent of fires compared to the twentieth century. Interactions between fire and other disturbances, such as drought and insect outbreaks, are likely to be the primary drivers of ecosystem change in a warming climate. Reburns are also likely to occur more frequently with warming and drought, with potential effects on tree regeneration and species composition. Hotter, drier sites may be particularly at risk for regeneration failures. Conclusion: Resource managers will likely be unable to affect the total area burned by fire, as this trend is driven strongly by climate. However, fuel treatments, when implemented in a spatially strategic manner, can help to decrease fire intensity and severity and improve forest resilience to fire, insects, and drought. Where fuel treatments are less effective (wetter, high-elevation, and coastal forests), managers may consider implementing fuel breaks around high-value resources. When and where post-fire planting is an option, planting different genetic stock than has been used in the past may increase seedling survival. Planting seedlings on cooler, wetter microsites may also help to increase survival. In the driest topographic locations, managers may need to consider where they will try to forestall change and where they will allow conversions to vegetation other than what is currently dominant.

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Gan, T., Tucker, G., Hutton, E., Piper, M., Overeem, I., Kettner, A., Campforts, B., Moriarty, J., Undzis, B., Pierce, E., et al. (2024) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024 · Cited by 4
“The results demonstrated that the Data Component design provides a consistent way to access and use online datasets from multiple sources and to easily couple data with models, which increases the accessibility and reusability of research datasets Another advantage of the Data Component design is…”
Background
Wall-to-wall mapping of carbon loss within the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone after the 2020 catastrophic wildfire
Matsala, M., Myroniuk, V., Borsuk, O., Vishnevskiy, D., Schepaschenko, D., Shvidenko, A., Kraxner, F., & Bilous, A. (2023) · Annals of Forest Science · doi:10.1186/s13595-023-01192-w · Cited by 4
Wildfire smoke, environmental justice, and young children in urban Pacific Northwest communities
Jones, S. A., Lins, J., Abay, H., Pham, K., & Dittrich, R. (2023) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101581 · Cited by 4
Postglacial Fire and Vegetation History from Doheney Lake in the Sinlahekin Wildlife Area, Okanogan County, Washington
Walsh, M. K., Haydon, K., & Swedberg, D. (2023) · Northwest Science · doi:10.3955/046.096.0104 · Cited by 4
Timber harvest and wildfires drive long-term habitat dynamics for an arboreal rodent
Linnell, M., Lesmeister, D. B., Yang, Z., & Davis, R. J. (2023) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109779 · Cited by 4
Variable self-thinning explains hydrological responses to stand replacement in even-aged forests
Benyon, R. G., Inbar, A., Sheridan, G., Lyell, C. S., & Lane, P. N. J. (2023) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129157 · Cited by 9
Young forests and fire: Using lidar–imagery fusion to explore fuels and burn severity in a subalpine forest reburn
Braziunas, K. H., Abendroth, D. C., & Turner, M. G. (2022) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1002/ecs2.4096 · Cited by 5
“Anticipating fire behavior as climate change and fire activity accelerate is an increasingly pressing challenge in fire-prone landscapes where vegetation may reburn more frequently than their historical baseline (Coop et al., 2020; Enright et al., 2015; Halofsky et al., 2020; Prichard et al., 2017).”
Background
Case Study on Developing a Comprehensive Voluntary Environmental Performance and Process Standard for Alpine Resorts Using Four Business Management Principles
Foster, B. (2021) · Mountain Research and Development · doi:10.1659/mrd-journal-d-20-00078.1 · Cited by 4
“Guest satisfaction precedes loyalty (Merli et al 2019): hospitality services must provide a baseline of amenities, cleanliness, safety, and service no lower than that of competitors before gaining additional loyalty from environmental initiatives (Han 2015).”
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Role of fire and fire cues in seed germination, seedling vigor, and establishment of species from fire-prone vegetation and its potential in African underutilized leafy vegetables and edible weeds
Fajinmi, O. O., Olarewaju, O., & van Staden, J. (2021) · Biostimulants for Crops from Seed Germination to Plant Development · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-823048-0.00002-2 · Cited by 4
Assessing the spatiotemporal dynamics of wildfire drivers in Southeast Asia: An explainable spatial machine learning framework
Xia, L., Yang, Z.-X., Yang, Y., Han, L., Jia, C., Li, J., Fan, W.-X., & Liu, R. (2026) · Environmental impact assessment review · doi:10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108337 · Cited by 3
Snowpack decline kindles more severe fire in the western United States
Balik, J. A., Coop, J., & Parks, S. (2026) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae4e4a · Cited by 3
“…this snowpack decline, northwestern US watersheds generally experience a later summer or fall fire season, and as such, fire season outcomes may be more strongly modulated by antecedent spring and summer conditions, and less strongly influenced by snowpack (Holden et al 2018, Halofsky et al 2020).”
Characterizing Indoor Surface VOC Contamination after the 2025 Los Angeles Fires
Stinson, B. W., Lei, E., & Gall, E. T. (2026) · Environmental Science & Technology Letters · doi:10.1021/acs.estlett.5c01015 · Cited by 3
WildfireVLM: AI-powered Analysis for Early Wildfire Detection and Risk Assessment Using Satellite Imagery
Ayanzadeh, A., Dixit, P., Kamal, S., & Halem, M. (2026) · IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS) · doi:10.1109/igarss60577.2026.11730269 · Cited by 4
“Regions such as California, Australia, the Amazon rainforest, and the Mediterranean basin have experienced increasingly large-scale wildfire events driven by prolonged droughts, rising temperatures, and land-use changes [4–8].”
Exploring the potential role of built environments in wildlife conservation during wildfires
Hohwieler, K., Pizà‐Roca, C., Brunton, E. A., Ward, M., & Cristescu, R. H. (2025) · Conservation Science and Practice · doi:10.1111/csp2.70200 · Cited by 2
“Changing fire regimes are causing widespread ecosystem changes and becoming a conservation concern for many threatened species globally (Doherty et al., 2024; Halofsky et al., 2020; Pivello et al., 2021; Tomas et al., 2021).”
Implications of recent wildfires for forest management on federal lands in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Cova, G. R., Prichard, S. J., Zald, H. S. J., Gaines, W. L., & Kane, V. R. (2025) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2025.123262 · Cited by 4
Groundwater storage changes in the United States using baseflow recession method: Comparison with GRACE and well observations
Hameed, M., Nayak, M., & Ahangar, M. A. (2025) · Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102946 · Cited by 3
Significant mortality of old trees across a dry forest landscape, Oregon, USA
Johnston, J. D., Stephens, P. N., Schmidt, M. R., Jeronimo, S., Brackett, A. E., Wuenschel, A. E., Ulrich, D. E. M., Paine, R. H., Duloisy, L. F., Greenler, S. M., et al. (2025) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2025.122907 · Cited by 3
Warming temperatures and decreasing soil moisture are increasing tree mortality in mature Douglas-fir forests of western Oregon, USA.
Cline, S., Lee, E., Waschmann, R., Bollman, M. A., & Beedlow, P. (2025) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110681 · Cited by 3
FOCUS: Improving fire detection on videos by scenario adaptation
Gragnaniello, D., Greco, A., Sansone, C., & Vento, B. (2025) · Image and Vision Computing · doi:10.1016/j.imavis.2025.105679 · Cited by 3
A decade-long study on mortality in European larch (Larix decidua Mill.), Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Car.) and their hybrid
Sagar, N., Pâques, L. E., & Chantepie, S. (2025) · Annals of Forest Science · doi:10.1186/s13595-025-01294-7 · Cited by 3
“…more severe and recurrent drought episodes (Solomon et al. 2007; Cook et al. Page 2 of 18 Sagar et al. Annals of Forest Science (2025) 82:24 2018), irregular precipitation (Donat et al. 2013), fire hazards (Halofsky et al. 2020), and increased impacts of pests and diseases (Sturrock et al. 2011).”
Effects of Fire Intensity on Soil Microbial Ecology in a Grassland Ecosystem
Lebre, P., Fouché, J., Bosch, J., Pertierra, L. R., Varliero, G., Frisby, A., Barker, N. P., Greve, M., Tichapondwa, S., & Cowan, D. (2025) · Environmental Microbiology · doi:10.1111/1462-2920.70124 · Cited by 3
“This study assessed the impact of different fire intensities on the soil microbial communities of grasslands, which will be subject to increased fire intensity due to the effects of climate change (Halofsky et al. 2020).”
The increase of wildfires and their impact: the importance of prevention and measures through the example of Ofunato
Kotozaki, Y. (2025) · Frontiers in Forests and Global Change · doi:10.3389/ffgc.2025.1589796 · Cited by 5
Reliability of satellite-based vegetation maps for planning wildfire-fuel treatments in shrub steppe: Inferences from two contrasting national parks.
Price, S. J., Kluender, C. R., Germino, M., & Rodhouse, T. (2025) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125808 · Cited by 3
Quantifying Western US tree carbon stocks and sequestration from fires
Jiang, P., Russell, M. B., Babcock, C., & Frelich, L. (2025) · Fire Ecology · doi:10.1186/s42408-025-00360-9 · Cited by 3
“This can be attributed to the warmer and less drought-prone twentieth century, which increased forest productivity making forests denser with greater carbon biomass (Littell et al. 2016; Halofsky et al. 2020).”
The mountains are calling, but will visitors go? Modeling the effect of weather and air quality on visitation to Pacific Northwest parks and protected areas using mobile device data
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“Predictive models also forecast more wet and dry extremes and elevated wildfire activity throughout the 21st century [7,8].”
Drivers of Wildfire Spatial Expansion: Modeling Insights from Semi-Arid Oak Forests of W Iran
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Chinese pangolins facilitate ecological restoration in burned forest sites by burrowing
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Rockweit, J. T., Dugger, K. M., Lesmeister, D. B., Davis, R. J., Franklin, A. B., & Higley, J. M. (2024) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110701 · Cited by 3
PyroVision: A Deep Learning Based Model for Wildfire Detection in Satellite Imagery
Sifat, S. A., Hasan, M., Joy, S. B. N., Habib, M. A., & Rahman, R. (2024) · International Conference on Electrical Engineering and Information Communication Technology · doi:10.1109/iceeict62016.2024.10534576 · Cited by 3
“The connection between rising temperatures, longer dry periods, increased wildfires and their widespread impact contributes to significant changes in wildfire risk [2].”
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Succession and climatic stochasticity induce long-term decline of a forest browser
Long, E. S., Tham, E. J., & Ferrer, R. P. (2024) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0298231 · Cited by 3
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Sogacheva, L., Virtanen, T. H., Sundström, A., Kolmonen, P., Sofiev, M. A., Lappalainen, H. K., & Arola, A. (2024) · Big Earth Data · doi:10.1080/20964471.2024.2316730 · Cited by 3
“The evidence shows that fires in the far North are becoming wider, hotter, and more frequent (Halofsky et al., 2020; Mack et al., 2021).”
Background
Assessment and Analysis of Forest Fires in Bulgaria
Velichkova, R., Gieva, E., & Simova, I. (2024) · CIEES 2023 · doi:10.3390/engproc2024060002 · Cited by 3
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Berardi, D., Galuppi, M., Libertà, A., & Lombardi, M. (2023) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire6110427 · Cited by 3
A Link Between Hydroclimate Variability and Biomass Burning During the Last Millennium in the Interior Pacific Northwest
Mark, S., Abbott, M., Steinman, B., Fernandez, A., Wise, E., Walsh, M., & Whitlock, C. (2023) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl105202 · Cited by 3
“Although the fire season in the dry forests of the Upper Columbia River Basin occurs between May and October, winter and spring precipitation influences soil moisture and fuel conditions (Halofsky et al., 2020; Wright & Agee, 2004).”
Riparian vegetation response amid variable climate conditions across the Upper Gila River watershed: informing Tribal restoration priorities
Petrakis, R., Norman, L. M., & Middleton, B. (2023) · Frontiers in Environmental Science · doi:10.3389/fenvs.2023.1179328 · Cited by 3
The Outlook for the UNECE Forest Sector in a Changing Climate
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“The changes in fire dynamics caused by climate change adversely affect the recovery of forest structure and composition, hampering the provision of forest ecosystem services (Halofsky et al., 2020).”
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Assessment of public and private land cover change in the United States from 1985–2018
Healey, N., Taylor, J. L., & Auch, R. (2023) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/acd3d8 · Cited by 3
“Current wildfire regimes are shifting toward greater intensity and frequency (Halofsky et al 2020).”
Background
Bark Beetle Effects on Fire Regimes Depend on Underlying Fuel Modifications in Semiarid Systems
Ren, J., Hanan, E. J., Hicke, J. A., Kolden, C. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Tague, C., Bart, R. R., Kennedy, M. C., Liu, M., & Adam, J. C. (2023) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2022ms003073 · Cited by 3
“The “gray phase” occurs 6–15 years after beetle outbreak, when dead foliage falls to the ground but snags remain standing (Halofsky et al., 2020).”
Background
PreDisM: Pre-Disaster Modelling With CNN Ensembles for At-Risk Communities
Anand, V., & Miura, Y. (2021) · arXiv.org · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2112.13465 · Cited by 3
“…warm and dry conditions cause severe and vast wildfires, and such fires could frequently occur as global warming extends fire seasons in the future (Halofsky et al., 2020); more extreme rainfalls are expected due to warming climate (Knutson et al., 2015) and the slow-downed tropical cyclones which…”
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Northwest Forest Plan-the first 25 years (1994–2017)
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Are green firebreaks a useful fire management tool under climate change in southeastern Australia?
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Passive acoustic monitoring with AI‐based detection and identification reveal sooty grouse hooting patterns in western Oregon
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Repeated fire and extended drought influence forest resilience in Arizona Sky Islands
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“Growing wildfire size, post-fire changes in fuel complexes, and hotter, drier climates also increase the likelihood of overlapping, uncharac-teristically large high severity burn scars from successive fires (Holden et al 2010; Coop et al 2016; Halofsky et al 2020).”
Insights into Forest Composition Effects on Wildland–Urban Interface Wildfire Suppression Expenditures in British Columbia
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Prevailing Climate Patterns for Concurrent High Temperature and Low Precipitation Days in Canada
Rajulapati, C., Crawford, A., Papalexiou, S., & Stroeve, J. (2025) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2025gl118662 · Cited by 2
“…periods of low precipitation and high temperatures significantly increase the risk and severity of widespread droughts (Hu et al., 2023), wildfires (Halofsky et al., 2020; Richardson et al., 2022), low crop yields (Hamed et al., 2021; Lu et al., 2018), and weak streamflows (Gupta et al., 2023).”
IGNITE-NET: fire risk prediction using dynamic receptive fields and dynamic channel fusion attention
Verma, A., Ranga, V., & Vishwakarma, D. K. (2025) · Advances in Space Research · doi:10.1016/j.asr.2025.10.085 · Cited by 1
Do Changes in Monoterpenes and Non-Structural Carbohydrate Reserves Signal Post-Fire Vulnerability in Pines?
Liu, Y.-Z., Citra, N., Ishangulyyeva, G., Han, C., & Erbilgin, N. (2025) · Journal of Chemical Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10886-025-01655-6 · Cited by 2
“In recent decades, wildfire frequency, size, and intensity have increased across boreal forests, particularly in North America, driven by climate warming and land-use change (de Groot et al. 2013; Strahan et al. 2016 ; Halofsky et al. 2020 ).”
Thermal behaviour of lipids in short-lived seeds of Australian rainforest species
Sommerville, K., Hill, L., Offord, C., & Walters, C. (2025) · Annals of Botany · doi:10.1093/aob/mcaf181 · Cited by 2
“Additional environmental stresses such as drought, fire, disease and climate change have led some species to the brink of extinction (Costion et al ., 2015; Fensham et al ., 2020; Halofsky et al ., 2020) and are contributing to a growing need to preserve rain-forest species ex situ .”
Investigating the dynamic behaviour of merging fire fronts
Filkov, A., Holyland, B., Cirulis, B., Moinuddin, K., Sutherland, D., Sharples, J., Hilton, J., Clements, C., & Penman, T. D. (2025) · International journal of wildland fire · doi:10.1071/wf24126 · Cited by 2
Distinct bird assemblages emerge after fire versus forest harvest but converge with early seral forest development
Frank, G. S., Betts, M. G., Kroll, A., Verschuyl, J., Rivers, J. W., Swanson, M. E., & Krawchuk, M. (2025) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1002/eap.70032 · Cited by 2
“…of large legacy trees for avian biodiversity we found is likely relevant to a range of forest management practices, and it underscores the importance of managing for forest resilience so that such legacies are maintained in the face of increasing fire extent and severity (Halofsky et al., 2020).”
Heat Wave, Cone Crops, Forest-Floor Small Mammals, and Mustelid Predation in Coniferous Forests of Southern British Columbia
Sullivan, T. P., Sullivan, D. S., & Vyse, A. (2025) · Ecologies · doi:10.3390/ecologies6020039 · Cited by 2
“In addition to the consequences for human health and social well-being, periods of sustained temperature stress have negative effects on fire regimes and the mortality of plants and trees in forest ecosystems [6,7].”
Magnifier: A Multigrained Neural Network-Based Architecture for Burned Area Delineation
Cambrin, D. R., Colomba, L., & Garza, P. (2025) · IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/jstars.2025.3565819 · Cited by 4
“Magniﬁerimprovesthequality oftheresultsof + 2.65% on average intersection over union while leading to a restrained increase in terms of the number of trainable parameters compared to the original model.”
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Authors: Halofsky, J. E., Peterson, D. L., & Harvey, B. J.
Affiliations: US Forest Service (US)
University of Washington (US)
Corresponding author: Halofsky, Jessica E.
ORCID: Halofsky, Jessica E.
Peterson, David L.
Harvey, Brian J.
Venue: Fire Ecology
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2020-01-27
Volume: 16
Issue: 1
ISSN: 1933-9747 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1186/s42408-019-0062-8
OpenAlex: W3000989483
Cited by: 640
References: 235
Citations by year: 2026: 74 · 2025: 142 · 2024: 141 · 2023: 121 · 2022: 91 · 2021: 62 · 2020: 8
FWCI: 26.23
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 (tdm)
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 (vor)
Locations: Fire Ecology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Funders: Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (G17AS00114)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
Keywords: climate change, forest fires, fire regimes, Pacific Northwest forests, insect outbreaks, fuel moisture content, fire season length, fire severity, fuel treatment, firebreaks, post-fire regeneration, seedling survival, forest resilience, forest composition, vegetation change, fire risk assessment

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Changing wildfire, changing forests: the effects of climate change on fire regimes and vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA

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