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Changing wildfire, changing forests: the effects of climate change on fire regimes and vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Open accessAbstract
Background: Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana, USA) have been immense in recent years, capturing the attention of resource managers, fire scientists, and the general public. This paper synthesizes understanding of the potential effects of changing climate and fire regimes on Pacific Northwest forests, including effects on disturbance and stress interactions, forest structure and composition, and post-fire ecological processes. We frame this information in a risk assessment context, and conclude with management implications and future research needs. Results: Large and severe fires in the Pacific Northwest are associated with warm and dry conditions, and such conditions will likely occur with increasing frequency in a warming climate. According to projections based on historical records, current trends, and simulation modeling, protracted warmer and drier conditions will drive lower fuel moisture and longer fire seasons in the future, likely increasing the frequency and extent of fires compared to the twentieth century. Interactions between fire and other disturbances, such as drought and insect outbreaks, are likely to be the primary drivers of ecosystem change in a warming climate. Reburns are also likely to occur more frequently with warming and drought, with potential effects on tree regeneration and species composition. Hotter, drier sites may be particularly at risk for regeneration failures. Conclusion: Resource managers will likely be unable to affect the total area burned by fire, as this trend is driven strongly by climate. However, fuel treatments, when implemented in a spatially strategic manner, can help to decrease fire intensity and severity and improve forest resilience to fire, insects, and drought. Where fuel treatments are less effective (wetter, high-elevation, and coastal forests), managers may consider implementing fuel breaks around high-value resources. When and where post-fire planting is an option, planting different genetic stock than has been used in the past may increase seedling survival. Planting seedlings on cooler, wetter microsites may also help to increase survival. In the driest topographic locations, managers may need to consider where they will try to forestall change and where they will allow conversions to vegetation other than what is currently dominant.
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“Changes in fire regimes can also contribute to a shift in vegetation composition, as more frequent fires, especially those coinciding with drought or insect outbreaks, suppress seedling regeneration and push, for example, closed forests toward more open forest-steppe systems (77,78).”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [77]
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Fettig, C., Audley, J. P., Mortenson, L. A., Hamud, S. M., & Flowers, R. W. (2025) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire8030109 · Cited by 1
Assessing the Effectiveness of Object Detection Models for Early Forest Wildfire Detection
Dinavahi, G. A., & Addanki, U. K. (2024) · 2024 5th International Conference on Data Intelligence and Cognitive Informatics (ICDICI) · doi:10.1109/icdici62993.2024.10810989 · Cited by 1
“Climate change further exacerbates this trend, with projections indicating more frequent and severe droughts, creating a tinderbox environment ripe for wildfires [3].”
External drivers of changes in wildland firefighter safety policies and practices
Cordner, A. (2024) · International journal of wildland fire · doi:10.1071/wf24142 · Cited by 1
Fire-associated microbial shifts in soils of western conifer forests with Armillaria root disease
Axen, A. J. F., Kim, M.-S., Klopfenstein, N. B., Ashiglar, S., Hanna, J., Bennett, P. I., & Stewart, J. E. (2024) · Applied and Environmental Microbiology · doi:10.1128/aem.01312-24 · Cited by 1
“Impacts from these interacting influences are increasingly important, as climate change and anthropogenic activity continue to raise fire severity and frequency in the regions of North America where A. solidipes is prevalent (31).”
Forrester, T. D., Spitz, D. B., Merems, J. L., Wisdom, M., Rowland, M., Johnson, B. K., Smith, J. B., Levi, T., Long, R. A., & Clark, D. A. (2024) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122005 · Cited by 1
Wildfire Risk Assessment and Detection for Remote Terrain
Essikpe, R., & Christen, J. B. (2024) · Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems · doi:10.1109/mwscas60917.2024.10658939 · Cited by 1
Smith, J. E., & Hoover, C. (2024) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f15071264 · Cited by 1
Barrett, S., Yates, C. J., Dillon, R., Dilly, M., Varcoe, B., Martin, D., Castlehow, B., & Gosper, C. (2024) · Australian Journal of Botany · doi:10.1071/bt23081 · Cited by 1
Surface-layer turbulence associated with a fast spreading grass fire
Zhong, S., Gonzalez-Fuentes, M., Clements, C., Bian, X., Heilman, W., Charney, J., Valero, M. M., Kochanski, A., & Kiefer, M. T. (2024) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110000 · Cited by 1
Jones, K., & Vukomanovic, J. (2023) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire6060236 · Cited by 1
Once upon a time in Mexico: Holocene biogeography of the spotted bat (Euderma maculatum)
Sanchez, D. E., Walker, F. M., Sobek, C., Lausen, C., & Chambers, C. L. (2023) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0274342 · Cited by 1
Ballard, T. C., Cooper, M. R., Lowrie, C., & Erinjippurath, G. (2023) · arXiv.org · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2305.02397 · Cited by 1
“Combined, the interplay of increasing wildfire risk, drought severity, and insect stress in response to climate change can create positive feedback mechanisms that amplify carbon reversal risk in forest carbon projects [7].”
BackgroundRunte, G. C., Oono, R., Molinari, N. A., Proulx, S., & D'Antonio, C. (2022) · Frontiers in Forests and Global Change · doi:10.3389/ffgc.2022.995487 · Cited by 1
“Globally, conifer forests are experiencing the detrimental impacts of climate change in the form of increased aridity and large high-intensity wildfires (Breshears et al., 2005; Allen et al., 2015; Halofsky et al., 2020; Stephens et al., 2020).”
BackgroundMani, J., & Varghese, A. O. (2022) · Journal of Tropical Forestry and Environment · doi:10.31357/jtfe.v11i02.5597 · Cited by 1
Masara, I. K., Murugesan, S. B., Myint, S., Zhu, Y.-H., & Fisher, J. (2022) · doi:10.1002/essoar.10510596.1 · Cited by 1
Pandit, K., Johnson, D. J., Smith, J. E., Domke, G. M., & Lichstein, J. W. (2026) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2026.123928 · Cited by 1
A review of wildfire impacts on stream temperature and turbidity across scales
Chen, J., & Chang, H. (2022) · Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment · doi:10.1177/03091333221118363 · Cited by 37
“…and heterogeneity of tree species with different levels of fire tolerance, such as regional climate (Fried et al., 2004; Gonzalez et al., 2010; Halofsky et al., 2020), the proximity to human activities (Mietkiewicz et al., 2020), forestry practices (Zald and Dunn, 2018), and vulnerability…”
BackgroundXue, C.-L., Ghirardelli, A., Chen, J.-P., Tarolli, P., & Pirotti, F. (2026) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111497
Matsane, W., Dhau, I., Mothapo, M. C., & Chikoore, H. (2026) · Scientific African · doi:10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03716
Contemporary Silvicultural Practices in the Western Portion of the Pacific Northwest, USA
Slesak, R., Deisenhofer, F. U., & Powers, M. (2026) · Journal of Forests · doi:10.1007/s44392-026-00110-y
Kohon, J. N., Tunalilar, O., Jespersen, B. V., Dys, S., Toda, E., & Carder, P. (2026) · Journal of Applied Gerontology · doi:10.1177/07334648251414184
Wall, S. A., Moffett, K. B., Patton, A., Leshchinsky, B., Wilcox, A. C., Sanders, M. A., Chang, H., & Roering, J. J. (2026) · International Journal of Wildland Fire · doi:10.1071/wf25206
Sagar, N., Belmokhtar, N., Boizot, N., Alves, A. M. M., Chassagnaud, D., Fichot, R., Rodrigues, J., & Pâques, L. E. (2026) · Journal of Near Infrared Spectroscopy · doi:10.1177/09670335261476250
Mah, A. Y. J., & Tilt, J. H. (2026) · Coastal Management · doi:10.1080/08920753.2026.2722732
Kranabetter, J., & Philpott, T. (2026) · Mycorrhiza · doi:10.1007/s00572-026-01307-x
“There are also likely to be important ancillary effects in relation to increased warming, particularly wildfire (Halofsky et al. 2020), that could also alter EMF communities with more frequent and severe disturbance cycles.”
Mburu, E., & Kiage, L. M. (2026) · Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment · doi:10.1177/03091333261480971
Prior low-severity fires reduce the risk of persistent forest loss from subsequent fires
Gui, S., Zhang, S., Zhang, Y., Wang, J. A., Zhu, Z., Gonçalves-Souza, T., Ombadi, M., Liu, Y.-L., Tang, J., Reich, P., et al. (2026) · bioRxiv · doi:10.64898/2026.08.23.746551
“Benefits ranked by area were greatest where low-severity burning is ecologically plausible and likely to reduce future severity without creating high-severity legacies, such as many Mediterranean and temperate conifer systems with increasing fire risk under a changing climate 1,48,55,62 .”
Applestein, C., Price, S. J., & Germino, M. (2026) · Fire Ecology · doi:10.1186/s42408-026-00539-8
“…need is acute in the vast and remote expanses of semiarid lands affected by exotic plant species that are altering wildfire regimes in ways that exceed the adaptive capacity of native vegetation (Aslan and Dickson 2020; Tomat-Kelly and Flory 2023; Bradley et al. 2018; Halofsky et al. 2020).”
Management of Forests and Wildlife at the Wildland–Urban Interface in the Eastern United States
Fredericksen, T. (2026) · Conservation · doi:10.3390/conservation6030096
“Unlike the relatively moist eastern deciduous forests, climate change is exacerbating fire danger in the drier fire-prone forests and shrublands in the western states [72,73].”
Sánchez-Martínez, J., Lagresa, A., López‐Saavedra, M., Schneider-Pérez, I., Arnau-Sarabia, X., Martínez-Sepúlveda, M., Jiménez-Llobet, M., & Martí, J. (2026) · Climate Services · doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100690
Evaluation of CNN and U-Net Models for Segmenting and Predicting Wildfires from Satellite Images
Bhole, A., Sawant, S., & Joshi, A. (2026) · International Conference on Computing Communication Control and automation · doi:10.1109/iccubea69821.2026.11702450
Bhusal, N., Marques, S., Poudel, S., Palaiologou, P., Roussou, O., Kalabokidis, K. D., & Borges, J. G. (2026) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f17080886
Smith, G. R., & Hamman, S. T. (2026) · Natural areas journal · doi:10.3375/2162-4399-46.3.5
Remote Sensing Techniques Shaping the Future of Wildfire Early Detection
Raza, M., Yin, X.-C., Abbas, T., Ahmad, I., Aslam, R. W., Tanveer, M. F., & Morimitsu, H. (2026) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery · doi:10.1002/widm.70094
McCrimmon, D., Chellman, N., Wensman, S., Plach, A., & McConnell, J. (2026) · Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2025jd046161
“…how biomass burning drives atmospheric composition and global climate (Legrand et al., 2016), and in turn, how climate impacts the frequency and severity of wildfires by influencing fuel loads, temperature, and precipitation (Halofsky et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2019; McKenzie et al., 2004).”
Beisel, J. D., Parks, S., Cansler, C., Affleck, D. L. R., Ballantyne, A. P., & Larson, A. J. (2026) · Fire Ecology · doi:10.1186/s42408-026-00543-y
“Climate change and altered fire regimes are impacting tree regeneration dynamics across forested landscapes (Halofsky et al. 2020; Kemp et al. 2016; Stevens-Rumann et al. 2022; Stevens-Rumann and Morgan 2019), leading to potential shifts in forest type or conversion to non-forest (Coop et al. 2020;…”
Dittel, J. W., & Clark, D. A. (2026) · Journal of Wildlife Management · doi:10.1002/jwmg.70234
Escobedo, F. J., Cheng, H., Thomas, A. S., & Moses, A. (2026) · Forest Policy and Economics · doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103818
Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events
Lucash, M. S., Lamping, J., Nowell, B. L., Scheller, R. M., Banerjee, T., Buettner, W. C., Fawcett, J. E., Hurteau, M. D., Parks, S. A., Rancher, W., et al. (2026) · Fire Ecology · doi:10.1186/s42408-026-00526-z
“…society and the environment (Bowman et al. 2009; Khaykin et al. 2020), extraordinary wildfires have been linked to a combination of factors, including climate change, fuel accumulation, and expanding human development into fire-prone landscapes (Halofsky et al. 2020; Pau-sas and Keeley 2021).”
Bharathi, A., Akash, S., & Raj, L. S. (2026) · Discover Plants · doi:10.1007/s44372-026-00742-6
“The xerophytic condition leads to forest fire risk at any time [13].”
Taştan, B. (2026) · Balıkesir Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi · doi:10.31795/baunsobed.1678188
What drives animal responses to high severity fire? The role of functional traits
Vielleux, G. A., Penman, T. D., Reynolds, V. A., & Swan, M. H. (2026) · Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · doi:10.1002/brv.70192
Modeling Delayed Mortality of Fire-Damaged Pines in Korea
Bae, J., Kim, J.-H., Jung, Y., & Chung, S. (2026) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f17060682
Reburned: the effect of repeated high-severity fires on soil properties in California forests
Wilson, S. G., Brune, J. F., & Pressler, Y. (2026) · Geoderma · doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2026.117815
Sufianto, H., & Wardoyo, J. (2026) · IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science · doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1629/1/012008
“The rise of climate-driven fire hazards necessitates adaptive architecture capable of mitigating emerging risks (Halofsky et al., 2020).”
Prioritizing Conservation of Trailing‐Edge Populations for Future Climate‐Resilient Forests
Boyce, N., Hamann, A., Dorrell, G., & Nielsen, S. E. (2026) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.70971
“For example, some areas may offer climatically suitable habitat but lack appropriate soil substrates, disturbance regimes, or successional stages needed for successful establishment (Halofsky et al. 2020; Ni and Vellend 2024).”
Yang, F., Liu, Y., Zeng, X., Yang, K., Tan, Y., & Yang, J. (2026) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f17050592
Majumdar, D., & Dutta, S. (2026) · Proceedings of Indian National Science Academy · doi:10.1007/s43538-026-00782-2
PyroAdapt: Adapting Wildfire Prediction under Spatial Heterogeneity and Temporal Shift
Jiang, E., & Sun, W. (2026) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.12435
“…shifts the spatial pattern, seasonality, and distribution of fire weather (Jones et al., 2022) and fuel conditions (Baltzer et al., 2021; Ellis et al., 2022; Halofsky et al., 2020), so the predictor–fire relationships a model learns from historical data may not hold in the year it is deployed.”
Chemical and Sensory Evaluation of Smoke-Related Volatile Phenols in Hops and Beer
Samia, R. S., Dailey, J., Williams, S., Pitra, T., Schilaty, T., Schultz, A., González, A. C., Alexander, J., & Shellhammer, T. (2026) · Journal of the American Society of Brewing Chemists · doi:10.1080/03610470.2026.2652812
“[1] The majority of hops produced in the United States are grown in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, and Idaho), with harvest occurring during peak wildfire season.”
Global wood cascades from terrestrial sources to terrestrial, freshwater, and marine sinks
Wohl, E. E., Maximenko, N., & Helm, R. R. (2026) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105425
Metadata
- Authors
- Halofsky, J. E., Peterson, D. L., & Harvey, B. J.
- Affiliations
- US Forest Service (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Halofsky, Jessica E.
- Venue
- Fire Ecology
- Published
- 2020-01-27
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 1933-9747 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3000989483
- Cited by
- 640
- References
- 235
- Citations by year
- 2026: 74 · 2025: 142 · 2024: 141 · 2023: 121 · 2022: 91 · 2021: 62 · 2020: 8
- FWCI
- 26.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Fire Ecology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (G17AS00114)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Keywords
- climate change, forest fires, fire regimes, Pacific Northwest forests, insect outbreaks, fuel moisture content, fire season length, fire severity, fuel treatment, firebreaks, post-fire regeneration, seedling survival, forest resilience, forest composition, vegetation change, fire risk assessment
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