Psychiatric history and subthreshold symptoms as predictors of the occurrence of depressive or anxiety disorder within 2 years
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Past episodes of depressive or anxiety disorders and subthreshold symptoms have both been reported to predict the occurrence of depressive or anxiety disorders. It is unclear to what extent the two factors interact or predict these disorders independently. AIMS: To examine the extent to which history, subthreshold symptoms and their combination predict the occurrence of depressive (major depressive disorder, dysthymia) or anxiety disorders (social phobia, panic disorder, agoraphobia, generalised anxiety disorder) over a 2-year period. METHOD: This was a prospective cohort study with 1167 participants: the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety. Anxiety and depressive disorders were determined with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, subthreshold symptoms were determined with the Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology-Self Report and the Beck Anxiety Inventory. RESULTS: Occurrence of depressive disorder was best predicted by a combination of a history of depression and subthreshold symptoms, followed by either one alone. Occurrence of anxiety disorder was best predicted by both a combination of a history of anxiety disorder and subthreshold symptoms and a combination of a history of depression and subthreshold symptoms, followed by any subthreshold symptoms or a history of any disorder alone. CONCLUSIONS: A history and subthreshold symptoms independently predicted the subsequent occurrence of depressive or anxiety disorder. Together these two characteristics provide reasonable discriminative value. Whereas anxiety predicted the occurrence of an anxiety disorder only, depression predicted the occurrence of both depressive and anxiety disorders.
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A family or personal history of mood or anxiety disorders is an important predictor of anxiety symptoms.
“A family [33] or personal history of mood or anxiety disorders [34,35] is an important predictor of anxiety symptoms.”
From Canadian clinical practice guidelines for the management of anxiety, posttraumatic stress and obsessive-compulsive disorders (2014) · cites this paper as [35]
The section ‘History and subthreshold disorder as predictors of the occurrence of anxiety disorders’ reports that a personal history of anxiety disorder predicted an anxiety disorder within two years. It also reports some predictive value for depressive history, although that association fell below significance in multiple regression. The cited paper studies the occurrence of anxiety disorders, not anxiety symptoms; the family-history clause is attributed to a different citation. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSubthreshold symptoms put one at risk for subsequent mental disorder.
“Since it is known that subthreshold symptoms put one at risk for subsequent mental disorder (Karsten et al., 2011; Rössler et al., 2011)”
From Blended care in the treatment of subthreshold symptoms of depression and psychosis in emerging adults: A randomised controlled trial of Acceptance and Commitment Therapy in Daily-Life (ACT-DL) (2020) · cites this paper as Karsten et al., 2011
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- Authors
- Karsten, J., Hartman, C. A., Smit, J. H., Zitman, F. G., Beekman, A. T. F., Cuijpers, P., van der Does, A. J. W., Ormel, J., Nolen, W. A., & Penninx, B. W. J. H.
- Affiliations
- University Medical Center Groningen (NL)
- Amsterdam Neuroscience (NL)
- Leiden University Medical Center (NL)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Karsten, Julie
- ORCID
- Venue
- British Journal of Psychiatry
- Publisher
- Royal College of Psychiatrists
- Published
- 2011-03
- Volume
- 198
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 206-212
- ISSN
- 0007-1250 (ISSN-L)
- 1472-1465
- OpenAlex
- W2101514363
- Cited by
- 155
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 18 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 13.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The British Journal of Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Pure Amsterdam UMC (publishedVersion)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (publishedVersion)
- Amsterdam UMC (VU Amsterdam) - Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Leiden Repository (Leiden University) (submittedVersion)
- Digital Academic REpository of VU University Amsterdam (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) (submittedVersion)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Universiteit Leiden (10‐000‐1002)
- Rijksuniversiteit Groningen (10‐000‐1002)
- ZonMw (10‐000‐1002)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
- GGZ inGeest
- Rivierduinen
- GGZ Friesland
- GGZ Drenthe
- Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg (10-000-1002)
- Trimbos-instituut
- Leids Universitair Medisch Centrum
- Universitair Medisch Centrum Groningen
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Mental Health Treatment and Access
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Mental Health Research Topics
- Keywords
- subthreshold symptoms, history of depression, depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, social anxiety disorder, panic disorder, agoraphobia, generalized anxiety disorder, risk prediction, prospective cohort, NESDA
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Anxiety Disorders, Depressive Disorder, Epidemiologic Methods, Female, Humans, Interview, Psychological, Male, Netherlands, Prognosis, Psychiatric Status Rating Scales, Disease Progression
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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