Neuropsychological tests accurately predict incident Alzheimer disease after 5 and 10 years
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether neuropsychological tests accurately predict incident Alzheimer disease (AD) after 5 and 10 years in participants of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) who were initially nondemented. METHODS: The CSHA was conducted in three waves: CSHA-1 (1991 to 1992), CSHA-2 (1996 to 1997), and CSHA-3 (2001 to 2002). The 10-year prediction study included those who completed neuropsychological testing at CSHA-1 and received a diagnostic assessment at CSHA-3 (n = 263). The 5-year prediction study included those who completed neuropsychological testing at CSHA-2 and received a diagnostic assessment at CSHA-3 (n = 551). The diagnostic workup for dementia at CSHA-3 was formulated without knowledge of neuropsychological test performance at CSHA-1 or CSHA-2. The authors excluded cases with a baseline diagnosis of dementia or a prior history of any condition likely to affect the brain. Age and education were included in all analyses as covariates. RESULTS: In the 10-year follow-up study, only one test (short delayed verbal recall) emerged from the forward regression analyses. The model with this test and two covariates was significant, chi2 (3) = 31.61, p < 0.0001 (sensitivity = 73%, specificity = 70%). In the 5-year follow-up study, three tests (short delayed verbal recall, animal fluency, and information) emerged from the forward logistic regression analyses. The model was significant, chi2 (5) = 91.34, p < 0.0001 (sensitivity = 74%, specificity = 83%). Both models were supported with bootstrapping estimates. CONCLUSIONS: In a large epidemiologic sample of nondemented participants, neuropsychological tests accurately predicted conversion to Alzheimer disease after 5 and 10 years.
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Story recall may be less sensitive to MCI or an evolving dementia than tests of verbal list learning or visual memory.
“Second, story recall may be less sensitive to MCI or an evolving dementia than tests of verbal list learning [11–16] or perhaps visual memory [17].”
From Neuropsychological Criteria for Mild Cognitive Impairment Improves Diagnostic Precision, Biomarker Associations, and Progression Rates (2014) · cites this paper as [16]
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- Authors
- Tierney, M. C., Yao, C., Kiss, A., & McDowell, I.
- Affiliations
- Sunnybrook Health Science Centre (CA)
- Venue
- Neurology
- Published
- 2005-06-14
- Volume
- 64
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1853-1859
- ISSN
- 0028-3878 (ISSN-L)
- 1526-632X
- OpenAlex
- W1969713976
- Cited by
- 274
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 20 · 2013: 15 · 2012: 14
- FWCI
- 9.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Neurology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Psychological Testing and Assessment
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Historical and Modern Theater Studies
- Keywords
- Alzheimer's disease, neuropsychological assessment, conversion to dementia, animal fluency, Canadian Study of Health and Aging, non-demented elderly, sensitivity and specificity
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Canada, Dementia, Educational Status, Female, Genetic Testing, Genotype, Health Surveys, Humans, Male, Memory Disorders, Neuropsychological Tests, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Reproducibility of Results, Cohort Studies, Genetic Predisposition to Disease
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