The DOI matches its Crossref record; 40 of the 41 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 30 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars
Abstract
This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
The paper argues that ethnic fractionalization is the wrong measure for capturing potential conflict; an ethnic polarization index (Q) better predicts civil war incidence. Using logit regressions on 138 countries from 1960–99, ethnic polarization is positive and significant while ethnic fractionalization is not.
Key findings
- Ethnic fractionalization (ETHFRAC) has no statistically significant effect on civil war incidence (coefficient 1.19, z=1.89 in column 1), consistent with Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoeffler (1998).
- Ethnic polarization (ETHPOL) has a positive and statistically significant effect: coefficient 2.37 (z=2.97) alone, and 2.28 (z=2.23) when ETHFRAC is included; ETHFRAC remains insignificant (0.17, z=0.19).
- The effect is economically important: moving polarization from the average (0.51) to Guinea’s level (0.84) almost doubles the probability of conflict; a one-standard-deviation increase (0.24) raises the probability by 67%.
- Robustness checks support ethnic polarization across alternative civil-war definitions (PRIO1000, PRIO25, Doyle–Sambanis, Fearon–Laitin), alternative data sources (Alesina et al., Atlas Narodov Mira), regional dummies, and cross-section regressions; religious polarization is less robust and depends on specification.
Methods
- Logit regressions for civil war incidence using a panel of 138 countries over 1960–99, divided into five-year periods; dependent variable is PRIOCW (PRIO intermediate/high-intensity civil war), with robustness using PRIO1000, PRIO25, DSCW, and FLCW definitions.
- Core explanatory variables: log real GDP per capita at period start (LGDPC), log population (LPOP), primary exports (PRIMEXP), mountains (MOUNTAINS), noncontiguous state (NONCONT), and democracy (DEMOCRACY); ethnic and religious fractionalization/polarization indices are added.
- Ethnic heterogeneity data primarily from the World Christian Encyclopedia; religious data from L’Etat des Religions dans le Monde and The Statesman’s Yearbook; robustness uses Alesina et al. (2003) and Atlas Narodov Mira data.
Limitations
- The paper states no formal limitations section. It notes that religious polarization’s statistical relevance depends on the particular specification, and that when Sub-Saharan African countries are eliminated and ethnic fractionalization is included, ethnic polarization becomes insignificant (coefficient 1.98, z=1.32).
- The paper also reports that ethnic polarization is only marginally significant using the Fearon and Laitin civil-war definition (coefficient 1.95, z=1.97).
- Evident from the text: the analysis is observational cross-country panel logit, so causal interpretation is limited; results may depend on group classification and data source, though the paper argues robustness across sources.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
3 of 30 cited sources checked · 2 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“In general the correlation between the index of fractionalization obtained using these alternative data sources is very high (over 0.8).”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2000)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Alesina et al (2003) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 2.2 reports a correlation of 0.88 between the paper’s linguistic index and the Soviet index, supporting one instance of the claim. But the corresponding ethnic-index correlation is 0.76, and the paper says the religious index has much lower correlations, so it does not support the generalization that correlations exceed 0.8. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Not matched
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“The correlation with the index of Alesina et al. (2003) is 0.83.”
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. (2003) source
The Introduction (page unavailable) says Alesina et al. construct new fractionalization indices, so the citation correctly identifies the source of an index. The 0.83 correlation is presented as the citing paper’s comparison, not as a result attributed to Alesina et al. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
“In the empirical section we show that the index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant explanatory variable for the incidence of civil wars.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satis es the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The index of ethnic fractionalization calculated with our data has a correlation of 0.86 with the index obtained using the Atlas Nadorov Mira (ELF).”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows that for low levels of fractionalization the correlation between ethnic fractionalization 20 and polarization is positive and high.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When we move from two groups to three groups the relationship between FRAC and Q breaks down.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 4 shows that religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is not statistically signi cant.”
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In column 7 we include together the index of ethnic polarization and religious polarization. Only the estimated coe¢ cient of the rst one is statistically signi cant.”
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However only three out of the ten countries with the highest level of religious fractionalization su/ered a civil war.”
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- Probably not a substantial claim. 19
- It may state two separate claims as one. 21
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative e/ect on growth.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine 1997 source
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. 2003 source
The Introduction says the paper broadly confirms earlier findings of a negative effect of ethnic fragmentation on growth. Section 3 reports an inverse relationship between ethnic fractionalization and per-capita growth, while noting that the association vanishes after controlling for potential mediating variables. Page numbers were not supplied. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Not matchedcites La Porta et al. 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the fractionalization index the size of each group has no e/ect on the weight of the probabilities of two individuals belonging to di/erent groups whereas in the Q index these probabilities are weighted by the relative size of each group.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless we should notice that only in 3,6% of the countries the number of groups is equal to two.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 3 checks the relative strength of the index of ethnic polarization versus fractionalization and shows that the coe¢ cient on ethnic fractionalization is not signi cantly di/erent from zero while the one on polarization is positive and signi cant.”
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows a similar pattern: for low levels of religious fractionalization the correlation with polarization is positive. However for intermediate and high levels of religious fractionalization the correlation is zero.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index is precisely the index DP (1 , 4) 13 .”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This implies a very high degree of polarization (0.96), and a low level of fractionalization (0.52).”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedSingle caseTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Imagine now that we increase the size of one group by epsilon and decrease the size of another group by the same amount. Now the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of fractionalization is smaller than its relative size, c i < π i , and the reverse happens for the smallest group.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is easy to show that the discrete Gini index (DG) calculated using a discrete metric is simply the index of fractionalization”
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the index of polarization the result is the opposite: the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of polarization is larger than its relative size, ˜ c i > π i , and the reverse happens to the smallest group.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We showed in the previous section that the index of fractionalization can be interpreted as a Gini index with a discrete metric (belong/do not belong to the group) instead of an Euclidean income distance.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However for the medium range the correlation is zero and for high levels of fractionalization the correlation with polarization is negative.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 6 shows the basic logit regressions using both religious fractionalization and religious polarization. The coe¢ cient of the index of religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is marginally insigni cant while the index of religious polarization (RELPOL) is statistically signi cant.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In both cases the degree of religious fractionalization is low.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index captures the idea of a large majority versus a large minority as the worst possible situation since the index in this case is close to the maximum.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“The Q index can be interpreted as the polarization measure of Esteban and Ray (1994) with a discrete metric.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Esteban and Ray (1994) source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Columns 1 and 2 show that ethnic polarization is statistically signi cant in the presence of regional dummies 31 , with and without the inclusion of ethnic fractionalization”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELPOL | | | | | 0.73 (1.00) | 3.90 (1.97) | 0.44 (0.65) | 3.29 (1.59) |”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✗ Asserted: fails✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHPOL | | 2.37 (2.97) | 2.28 (2.23) | | | | 2.27 (2.84) | 2.09 (2.03) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 2.31 (2.76) | 1.95 (1.97) | 2.33 (2.16) | 2.05 (2.41) | 2.31 (2.23) | 2.32 (2.74) | 2.11 (2.02) | 2.35 (2.12) | 2.13 (2.48) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 34 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 3.35 (2.46) | 3.42 (2.48) | 3.26 (2.37) | 3.53 (2.44) | 2.95 (2.15) | 3.27 (2.26) |”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe quote only partly states this claim.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHFRAC | 1.19 (1.89) | | 0.17 (0.19) | | | | | 0.04 (0.05) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHFRAC | -0.52 (0.65) | 0.01 (0.01) | 0.57 (0.62) | -0.06 (0.09) | 0.18 (0.20) | -0.73 (0.92) | -0.14 (0.15) | 0.57 (0.63) | -0.17 (0.23) |”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✗ Asserted: fails✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“opposite to what happens with the coe¢ cient of the index of fractionalization calculated using the same source (estimated coe¢ cient=1.27 and z=1.67).”
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When ethnic dominance is included with the Q index, column 3, its coe¢ cient is not signi cant while ethnic polarization continues being a signi cant explanatory variable on the probability of civil wars.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELFRAC | | | | 0.37 (0.36) | | -4.97 (1.65) | | -4.45 (1.39) |”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✗ Asserted: fails✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Collier (2001) also emphasizes that the relationship between ethnic diversity and the risk of violent con icts is not monotonic. Highly heterogeneous societies have even a lower probability of civil wars than homogeneous societies. The highest risk is associated with the middle range of ethnic diversity. 8”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Collier (2001) source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Horowitz (1985), which is the seminal reference on the issue of ethnic groups in con ict, argues that the relationship between ethnic diversity and civil wars is not monotonic: there is less violence in highly homogeneous and highly heterogeneous societies, and more con icts in societies where a large ethnic minority faces an ethnic majority.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Horowitz (1985)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Finally Fearon and Laitin (2003) indicate that a large population implies di¢ culties in controlling what goes on at the local level and increases the number of potential rebels that can be recruited by the insurgents.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However their theoretical arguments, as they recognize explicitly, are based on polarized societies 4 not on highly fractionalized cases.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine (1997) source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoe› er (2002) nd that neither ethnic fractionalization nor religious fractionalization have any statistically signi cant e/ect on the probability of civil wars.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) consider that the size of the population is an additional proxy for the bene ts of a rebellion since it measures potential labor income taxation.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) point out that the existence of natural resources provide an opportunity for rebellion since these resources can be used to nance the war and increases the payo/ if victory is achieved.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
“In this paper we have shown that the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
In the paper
“Notice also that Fearon (2003) points out that the index of fractionalization, being not sensitive to discontinuities, cannot capture important di/erences in ethnic structures. In particular the idea of majority rule is not well re ected by the index of fractionalization.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We argued before that a high number of di/erent groups increases the coordination problems and, therefore, given a level of polarization, the probability of civil wars may be smaller.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The absolute z-statistics in parenthesis are calculated using standard errors adjusted for clustering.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“In addition Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) con rm that ethnolinguistic fractionalization has a direct negative e/ect on growth, probably due to its impact on the transmission of ideas.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper relies on this without support.
Civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.
“There is no doubt that civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Figure 3's data source is reversed
MinorThe text says Figure 3 uses Alesina et al.'s data, but the figure caption identifies the Atlas Nadorov Mira as its source.
“Figure 3 shows the relationship between the index of ethnic fractionalization and ethnic polarization constructed using the data of Alesina et al. (2003).”
“Figure 3: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Atlas Nadorov Mira.”
Figure 4's data source is reversed
MinorThe text says Figure 4 uses Atlas Nadorov Mira data, but its caption identifies Alesina et al. as the source.
“Figure 4 shows ethnic fractionalization and polarization calculated using the data from the Atlas Nadorov Mira, the third basic source of data on ethnic diversity.”
“Figure 4: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Alesina et al. (2003).”
Citations
Cites
Mauro, P. (1995) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/2946696 · Cited by 8,820
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
FEARON, J. D., & LAITIN, D. D. (2003) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055403000534 · Cited by 7,366
(2012) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.102.7.i · Cited by 7,275
Greed and grievance in civil war
Collier, P. D. (2004) · Oxford Economic Papers · doi:10.1093/oep/gpf064 · Cited by 6,295
La Porta, R. (1999) · Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization · doi:10.1093/jleo/15.1.222 · Cited by 5,699
Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions
Easterly, W., & Levine, R. (1997) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355300555466 · Cited by 5,649 · cited 4×
“The index of ethnic 4 Easterly and Levine, 1997, pp. 1205, 1232, and 1241. fractionalization has a simple interpretation as the probability that two randomly selected individuals from a given country will not belong to the same ethnic group.5 Many authors have found, however, that even though…”
BackgroundInfluentialKuper, L., & Horowitz, D. L. (1986) · Contemporary Sociology A Journal of Reviews · doi:10.2307/2069338 · Cited by 4,891
Mauro, P. (1995) · doi:10.1007/s12117-997-1097-9 · Cited by 4,683
Alesina, A., Devleeschauwer, A., Easterly, W., Kurlat, S., & Wacziarg, R. (2003) · Journal of Economic Growth · doi:10.1023/a:1024471506938 · Cited by 3,432
On economic causes of civil war
Collier, P. D. (1998) · Oxford Economic Papers · doi:10.1093/oep/50.4.563 · Cited by 2,523 · cited 3×
“This result is consistent with Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoeffler (1998).”
BackgroundResult
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 41 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- Barrett, David B., ed., World Christian encyclopedia. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1982.
- Paxton John, New York: Macmillan, 1983, 1985
- Wolfson Michael C, 1994, American Economic Review, 84
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 101–200 of 1,384
Segmentary Lineage Organization and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Moscona, J., Nunn, N., & Robinson, J. A. (2020) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta16327 · Cited by 108
“…the historical roots of conflict (e.g., Besley and Reynal-Querol (2014), Depetris-Chauvin (2015), Michalopoulos and Papaioannou (2016)) or the importance of ethnic or social factors (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005), Esteban, Mayoral, and Ray (2012), Rohner, Thoenig, and Zilibotti (2013)).”
BackgroundCollective Action and Representation in Autocracies: Evidence from Russia’s Great Reforms
Dower, P. C., Finkel, E., Gehlbach, S. G., & Nafziger, S. (2017) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055417000454 · Cited by 110
Does Foreign Aid Help?Preprint
Djankov, S., Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal‐Querol, M. (2006) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.896550 · Cited by 138
“This finding, however, is not robust to the specification of the model (see, for instance, Fearon and Laitin 2003, and Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2002, 2005) and depends heavily on the imputation criterion of missing data.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationDeterminants of Financial Development
Huang, Y. (2011) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1057/9780230302495 · Cited by 112
DellaVigna, S., & Ferrara, E. L. (2010) · American Economic Journal Economic Policy · doi:10.1257/pol.2.4.26 · Cited by 119
Rules That Matter: Political Institutions and the Diversity—Conflict Nexus
Schneider, G., & Wiesehomeier, N. (2008) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343307087176 · Cited by 111
How Ethnic Diversity Affects Economic Growth
Gören, E. (2014) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.01.012 · Cited by 124
POLACHEK, S. W., & Sevastianova, D. (2011) · Journal of International Trade & Economic Development · doi:10.1080/09638191003749783 · Cited by 108
The International Politics of Incomplete Sovereignty: How Hostile Neighbors Weaken the State
Lee, M. M. (2018) · International Organization · doi:10.1017/s0020818318000085 · Cited by 111
“Collier and Hoeffler 2004; Fearon and Laitin 2011; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005.”
BackgroundPoverty and Civil War: Revisiting the Evidence
Djankov, S., & Reynal‐Querol, M. (2010) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_00046 · Cited by 103
“Next, Reynal-Querol (2002) and Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005a, 2005b) show that ethnic polarization explains the likelihood of conflicts and civil wars.”
BackgroundSelf-citationMore Inequality, More Killings: The Maoist Insurgency in Nepal
Nepal, M., Bohara, A. K., & Gawande, K. (2011) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00529.x · Cited by 109
Colonial Legacy, State-building and the Salience of Ethnicity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Ali, M., Fjeldstad, O., Jiang, B., & Shifa, A. B. (2018) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/ecoj.12595 · Cited by 114
Explaining Population Displacement Strategies in Civil Wars: A Cross-National Analysis
Lichtenheld, A. (2020) · International Organization · doi:10.1017/s0020818320000089 · Cited by 111
“From Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005.”
Politician hate speech and domestic terrorism
Piazza, J. A. (2020) · International Interactions · doi:10.1080/03050629.2020.1739033 · Cited by 125
“…observations for various Latin American regimes in the 1960s and 1970 s. Social and political polarization has been also found to be important for fueling civil wars in countries (Elbadawi 1999; Gubler and Selway 2012; Humphreys and Weinstein 2008; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005; Scarcelli 2014).”
BackgroundSiegel, A. A. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108890960.005 · Cited by 123
Ravndal, J. A. (2017) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12254 · Cited by 116
“This premise, too, builds on research derived from the civil war literature, but this time on the violent consequences of highly polarized conflicts (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005; Østby, 2008).”
BackgroundSanogo, T. (2018) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.09.008 · Cited by 117
Cross-Cuttingness, Cleavage Structures and Civil War Onset
Selway, J. (2010) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123410000311 · Cited by 96
Acemoğlu, D., Fergusson, L., & Johnson, S. (2019) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdz042 · Cited by 97
Volatility, Financial Development and the Natural Resource CursePreprint
Poelhekke, S., & van der Ploeg, F. (2007) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 99
Ethnic Inequality and the Ethnification of Political Parties
Huber, J. D., & Suryanarayan, P. (2015) · World Politics · doi:10.1017/s0043887115000349 · Cited by 94
Natural Resources and Violent Conflict
Nillesen, E., & Bulte, E. (2014) · Annual Review of Resource Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-resource-091912-151910 · Cited by 100
Yamamura, E. (2015) · International Economic Journal · doi:10.1080/10168737.2015.1020323 · Cited by 79
Ethnic Cleavages and Irregular War: Iraq and Vietnam
Kalyvas, S. N., & Kocher, M. A. (2007) · Politics & Society · doi:10.1177/0032329207302403 · Cited by 92
What Is European Integration Really About? A Political Guide for Economists
Spolaore, E. (2013) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.27.3.125 · Cited by 100
The Logic of Ethnic and Religious Conflict in Africa
McCauley, J. F. (2017) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781316796252 · Cited by 88
Uneven Growth: A Framework for Research in Development Economics
Ray, D. (2010) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.24.3.45 · Cited by 99
Desertion and Collective Action in Civil Wars
McLauchlin, T. (2015) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/isqu.12205 · Cited by 65
On war intensity and schooling attainment: The case of Bosnia and Herzegovina
Swee, E. L. (2015) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.08.001 · Cited by 90
“This index satisfies the partial correlation condition as it is well-known that ethnic distributions that are closer to bi-polarity are more likely to engage in ethnic conflict (Reynal-Querol, 2002; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundRace and Responsiveness: An Experiment with South African Politicians
McClendon, G. (2016) · Journal of Experimental Political Science · doi:10.1017/xps.2015.10 · Cited by 90
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND URBAN CONCENTRATIONS: UNBUNDLING SPATIAL LAGS*
Poelhekke, S., & van der Ploeg, F. (2009) · Journal of Regional Science · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9787.2009.00632.x · Cited by 89
“Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005 ln Land area PWT 6.2 (Heston et al., 2006) Notes: The following variables are observed only every five years, where we impute missing years within each five-year period with the value of the most recent year such that FDI is regressed on beginning of period (five…”
InfluentialEconomic and Social Factors Driving the Third Wave of DemocratizationPreprint
Papaioannou, E., & Siourounis, G. D. (2004) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.566021 · Cited by 89
Polarization and Ethnic Conflict in a Widened Strategic Setting
Forsberg, E. (2008) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343307087185 · Cited by 89
Diversity and trust: The role of shared values
Beugelsdijk, S., & Klasing, M. J. (2015) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2015.10.014 · Cited by 90
Openness and internal conflict
Magee, C., & Massoud, T. G. (2010) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343310388834 · Cited by 87
The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa
Michalopoulos, S., & Papaioannou, E. (2011) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w17620 · Cited by 97
Kong, G.-W., Kong, D.-M., Qin, N., & Yu, L. (2022) · Journal of Business Ethics · doi:10.1007/s10551-022-05236-5 · Cited by 75
“Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) show that ethnic diversity increases government expenditures, reduces domestic investment and generates internal conflicts, all of which impede economic growth.”
Segregation, Rent Control, and Riots: The Economics of Religious Conflict in an Indian City
Field, E., Levinson, M., Pande, R., & Visaria, S. (2008) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.98.2.505 · Cited by 87
Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa
McGuirk, E. F., & Nunn, N. (2025) · Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdae027 · Cited by 85
Becken, S., & Carmignani, F. (2016) · Annals of Tourism Research · doi:10.1016/j.annals.2016.09.002 · Cited by 90
Ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars
Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal‐Querol, M. (2010) · Economics of Governance · doi:10.1007/s10101-010-0077-8 · Cited by 87
Self-citationPropaganda and Conflict: Theory and Evidence from the Rwandan GenocidePreprint
Yanagizawa-Drott, D. (n.d.) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 82
Wimmer, A. (2015) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414015592645 · Cited by 85
“Many subsequent studies have found a similar correlation between ethno-linguistic fractionalization and growth rates (Alesina, Devleeschauwer, Easterley, Kurlat, & Wacziarg, 2003; Alesina & La Ferrara, 2005; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005; Rodrik, 1999; Sala-iMartin, Dopperlhoffer, & Miller, 2004).”
BackgroundCherif, M., & Gazdar, K. (2010) · International Journal of Banking and Finance · doi:10.32890/ijbf2010.7.1.8 · Cited by 82
Birthplace diversity and economic complexity: Cross-country evidence
Bahar, D., Hillel Rapoport, C., & Turati, R. (2019) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/j.respol.2020.103991 · Cited by 89
Immigrant Diversity and Economic Performance in Cities
Kemeny, T. (2014) · International Regional Science Review · doi:10.1177/0160017614541695 · Cited by 82
“This is precisely the line of argument theorized and confirmed at the national scale in recent work by development economists (Alesina and Drazen 1991; Easterly and Levine 1997; Rodrik 1999; Alesina and La Ferrara 2005; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005).”
BackgroundResultBaten, J., & Mumme, C. (2013) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2013.06.007 · Cited by 78
Ethnicity and party preference in sub-Saharan Africa
Basedau, M., Erdmann, G., Lay, J., & Stroh, A. (2011) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2011.553366 · Cited by 79
The Role of the Government in Adaptation to Climate Change
Osberghaus, D., Dannenberg, A., Mennel, T., et al. (2010) · Environment and Planning C Government and Policy · doi:10.1068/c09179j · Cited by 79
Luiz, J. M. (2015) · Journal of International Business Studies · doi:10.1057/jibs.2015.6 · Cited by 80
Why Is Inequality High in Africa?†
Shimeles, A., & Nabassaga, T. (2017) · Journal of African Economies · doi:10.1093/jae/ejx035 · Cited by 78
Democracy, inequality, and institutional quality
Kotschy, R., & Sunde, U. (2016) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.10.006 · Cited by 78
‘Us’ and ‘Them’: the origin of identity, and its economic implications
Eaton, B. C., Eswaran, M., & Oxoby, R. J. (2011) · Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d économique · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5982.2011.01652.x · Cited by 76
“Recently, Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) have proposed an index of polarization along ethnic and religious lines.”
Terrorism and spatial disparities: Does interregional inequality matter?
Ezcurra, R., & Palacios, D. (2016) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.01.004 · Cited by 82
The Diverse Effects of Diversity on Democracy
Gerring, J., Hoffman, M., & Zarecki, D. (2016) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s000712341600003x · Cited by 79
“37 Myerson 2008.”
The geography of natural resources, ethnic inequality and civil conflicts
Leßmann, C., & Steinkraus, A. (2019) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2019.01.005 · Cited by 87
Terrorism in the Worlds of Welfare Capitalism
Krieger, T., & Meierrieks, D. (2010) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002710367885 · Cited by 80
“Grabbing Hand” or “Helping Hand”?: Corruption and the Economic Role of the State
Hopkin, J., & Rodríguez‐Pose, A. (2007) · Governance · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0491.2007.00353.x · Cited by 76
Lindemann, S. (2008) · Cited by 74
Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa
McGuirk, E. F., & Nunn, N. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w28243 · Cited by 84
The Primacy of the Local: Identifying Terrorist Hot Spots Using Geographic Information Systems
Nemeth, S., Mauslein, J. A., & Stapley, C. S. (2014) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1017/s0022381613001333 · Cited by 77
The Making of the Middle-Class in Africa: Evidence from DHS Data
Shimeles, A., & Ncube, M. Z. (2015) · The Journal of Development Studies · doi:10.1080/00220388.2014.968137 · Cited by 94
What Determines Financial Development?Preprint
Huang, Y. (2006) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.925051 · Cited by 78
Neighbourhood ethnic diversity and mental health in Australia
Churchill, S. A., Farrell, L., & Smyth, R. (2019) · Health Economics · doi:10.1002/hec.3928 · Cited by 73
Colaresi, M. P., & Carey, S. C. (2008) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002707310427 · Cited by 73
“Drawing on data collected by Reynal-Querol and Montalvo (2005), we have also analyzed ethnic polarization (5), reli gious polarization (6), and religious fractionalization (7).”
MethodEthnic fractionalization, natural resources and armed conflict
Wegenast, T. C., & Basedau, M. (2013) · Conflict Management and Peace Science · doi:10.1177/0738894213508692 · Cited by 87
“In fact, some of the civil war countries indicating ethnic grievances and resource-related risks (e.g. Chad, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, and Sudan) also exhibit fairly high polarization values (see Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundNatural resource dependence, non-tradables, and economic growth
Brüeckner, M. (2010) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2010.06.002 · Cited by 70
Discrete Polarisation with an Application to the Determinants of Genocides*
Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal‐Querol, M. (2008) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02193.x · Cited by 68
“12 Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005b) show that the index RQ can be derived from a rent seeking model of conflict.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationCan Polarization Be Positive? Conflict and Institutional Development in Africa
LeBas, A. (2018) · American Behavioral Scientist · doi:10.1177/0002764218756923 · Cited by 79
“…ethnic groups, weighted by the size of each group; others use measures of inequality or linguistic similarity between groups to calculate ethnic distance (Alesina, Devleeschauwer, Easterly, Kurlat, & Wacziarg, 2003; Duclos, Esteban, & Ray, 2004; Fearon, 2003; Reynal-Querol & Montalvo, 2005).”
BackgroundPrimaries on Demand? Intra-Party Politics and Nominations in Ghana
Ichino, N., & Nathan, N. L. (2012) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123412000014 · Cited by 66
Can oil-rich countries encourage entrepreneurship?
Farzanegan, M. R. (2014) · Entrepreneurship and Regional Development · doi:10.1080/08985626.2014.981869 · Cited by 64
“It is shown that ethnically fractionalized countries are at the higher risk of resource curse (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005; Hodler 2006).”
BackgroundOn the heterogeneity of terror
Kis‐Katos, K., Liebert, H., & Schulze, G. G. (2014) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.02.009 · Cited by 68
“If ethnic fragmentation increases, a potential dominance of one ethnicity over another is expected to decrease; ethnic tensions may be less concentrated and thus may cause less grievances (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
InfluentialThe Long Term Educational Cost of War: Evidence from Landmine Contamination in Cambodia
Merrouche, O. (2011) · The Journal of Development Studies · doi:10.1080/00220388.2010.485633 · Cited by 68
Determinants of Constitutional Change: Why do Countries Change Their Form of Government?Preprint
Hayo, B., & Voigt, S. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1562553 · Cited by 68
Why Political Competition Can Increase Patronage
Driscoll, B. (2017) · Studies in Comparative International Development · doi:10.1007/s12116-017-9238-x · Cited by 68
Dincer, O. C. (2010) · Contemporary Economic Policy · doi:10.1111/j.1465-7287.2010.00215.x · Cited by 71
The geography of linguistic diversity and the provision of public goods
Desmet, K., Gomes, J. A., & Ortuño-Ortı́n, I. (2019) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.102384 · Cited by 70
How Governments Shape the Risk of Civil Violence: India's Federal Reorganization, 1950–56
Lacina, B. (2013) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12074 · Cited by 62
Democratic Transparency in the Platform Society
Gorwa, R., & Ash, T. G. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108890960.013 · Cited by 71
Neighborhood Diversity and Social Identity Complexity
Schmid, K., Hewstone, M., & Ramiah, A. A. (2012) · Social Psychological and Personality Science · doi:10.1177/1948550612446972 · Cited by 64
“In this article, we operationalize diversity in terms of the ethnic fractionalization of a social unit (see e.g., Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005), a diversity index that captures not only the representational proportion of the country’s ethnic minority groups in a given spatial unit but also…”
MethodNatural resources and fiscal performance: Does good governance matter?
Anshasy, A. A. E., & Katsaiti, M. (2013) · Journal of Macroeconomics · doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.05.006 · Cited by 63
Ethnic Polarization, Ethnic Salience, and Civil War
Bhavnani, R., & Miodownik, D. (2008) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002708325945 · Cited by 63
“Schneider and Wiesehomeier (2006) take exception to findings that support the polarization– conflict link, arguing instead that highly polarized countries are no more likely to experience civil war than countries characterized by low levels of ethnic polarization and suggesting that…”
BackgroundEthnic Diversity and Social Capital in Indonesia
Mavridis, D. A. (2014) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.10.028 · Cited by 63
The Political Boundaries of Ethnic Divisions
Bazzi, S., & Gudgeon, M. (2020) · American Economic Journal Applied Economics · doi:10.1257/app.20190309 · Cited by 72
Chapter 49 Public Action for Public Goods
Banerjee, A., Iyer, L. S., & Somanathan, R. (2007) · Handbook of development economics · doi:10.1016/s1573-4471(07)04049-1 · Cited by 66
Moral opinion polarization and the erosion of trust
Rapp, C. H. (2016) · Social Science Research · doi:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2016.02.008 · Cited by 62
Does Diversity Impair Human Development? A Multi-Level Test of the Diversity Debit Hypothesis
Gerring, J., Thacker, S. C., Lu, Y., & Huang, W. (2014) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.07.019 · Cited by 65
The economic costs of civil war
Costalli, S., Moretti, L., & Pischedda, C. (2017) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343316675200 · Cited by 69
Does Heterogeneity Hinder Democracy?
Merkel, W., & Weiffen, B. (2012) · Comparative Sociology · doi:10.1163/156913312x638606 · Cited by 61
“In turn, Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) developed a measure of ethnic polarization, assessing whether the constellation of ethnic groups in a country comes close to the equilibrium between two groups that is deemed particularly dangerous.”
BackgroundWhat Determines the Suspension of Budget Support?
Molenaers, N., Gagiano, A., Smets, L., et al. (2014) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.09.025 · Cited by 60
Misinformation and Its Correction
Wittenberg, C., & Berinsky, A. J. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108890960.009 · Cited by 64
Ethnic Diversity and Ethnic Strife. An Interdisciplinary Perspective
Kanbur, R., Rajaram, P. K., & Varshney, A. (2010) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.11.034 · Cited by 58
“By and large the econometrics literature does not explore the feedback loop in the other direction, taking ethnicity as a given, a phenomenon that changes only slowly relative to the processes of economic growth.”
BackgroundRodríguez‐Pose, A., & von Berlepsch, V. (2018) · European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie · doi:10.1007/s10680-018-9507-z · Cited by 61
“(2003), Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005a) and Gören (2014), we include both indices of fractionalization and polarization in our model, as both indices capture a different aspect of diversity.10”
InfluentialPoverty, Social Divisions, And Conflict In Nepal
Do, Q., & Iyer, L. (2007) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-4228 · Cited by 58
How different are the correlates of onset and continuation of civil wars?
Bleaney, M., & Dimico, A. (2011) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343310394697 · Cited by 57
Heterogeneity and Collective Management: Evidence from Common Forests in Himachal Pradesh, India
Naidu, S. C. (2008) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.07.001 · Cited by 57
Consent or Conflict: Coevolution of Coordination and Networks
Buskens, V., Corten, R., & Weesie, J. (2008) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343307087177 · Cited by 65
The Myth of Consociationalism? Conflict Reduction in Divided Societies
Selway, J., & Templeman, K. (2011) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414011425341 · Cited by 65
The Political Economy of European Integration
(1995) · Brill | Nijhoff eBooks · doi:10.1163/9789004639034 · Cited by 57
Islam and Large-Scale Political Violence: Is There a Connection?
Fish, M. S., Jensenius, F. R., & Michel, K. (2010) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414010376912 · Cited by 56
Metadata
- Authors
- Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal-Querol, M.
- Affiliations
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
- The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433.
- ORCID
- Montalvo, José G
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2005-06-01
- Volume
- 95
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 796-816
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1975264861
- Semantic Scholar
- d34e25710e0f59c77127215c237c4e3a5a19820b
- Cited by
- 1,386
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 33 · 2025: 63 · 2024: 64 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 97 · 2021: 76 · 2020: 89 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 77 · 2017: 61 · 2016: 70 · 2015: 90 · 2014: 79 · 2013: 80 · 2012: 61
- FWCI
- 145.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Development › Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Keywords
- ethnic fractionalization, ethnic conflict, civil war, ethnic distance, ethnic diversity, economic growth, political instability, corruption, investment, ethnic classification
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-13, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-13 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
