The DOI matches its Crossref record; 40 of the 41 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 30 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars
Abstract
This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
The paper argues that ethnic fractionalization is the wrong measure for capturing potential conflict; an ethnic polarization index (Q) better predicts civil war incidence. Using logit regressions on 138 countries from 1960–99, ethnic polarization is positive and significant while ethnic fractionalization is not.
Key findings
- Ethnic fractionalization (ETHFRAC) has no statistically significant effect on civil war incidence (coefficient 1.19, z=1.89 in column 1), consistent with Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoeffler (1998).
- Ethnic polarization (ETHPOL) has a positive and statistically significant effect: coefficient 2.37 (z=2.97) alone, and 2.28 (z=2.23) when ETHFRAC is included; ETHFRAC remains insignificant (0.17, z=0.19).
- The effect is economically important: moving polarization from the average (0.51) to Guinea’s level (0.84) almost doubles the probability of conflict; a one-standard-deviation increase (0.24) raises the probability by 67%.
- Robustness checks support ethnic polarization across alternative civil-war definitions (PRIO1000, PRIO25, Doyle–Sambanis, Fearon–Laitin), alternative data sources (Alesina et al., Atlas Narodov Mira), regional dummies, and cross-section regressions; religious polarization is less robust and depends on specification.
Methods
- Logit regressions for civil war incidence using a panel of 138 countries over 1960–99, divided into five-year periods; dependent variable is PRIOCW (PRIO intermediate/high-intensity civil war), with robustness using PRIO1000, PRIO25, DSCW, and FLCW definitions.
- Core explanatory variables: log real GDP per capita at period start (LGDPC), log population (LPOP), primary exports (PRIMEXP), mountains (MOUNTAINS), noncontiguous state (NONCONT), and democracy (DEMOCRACY); ethnic and religious fractionalization/polarization indices are added.
- Ethnic heterogeneity data primarily from the World Christian Encyclopedia; religious data from L’Etat des Religions dans le Monde and The Statesman’s Yearbook; robustness uses Alesina et al. (2003) and Atlas Narodov Mira data.
Limitations
- The paper states no formal limitations section. It notes that religious polarization’s statistical relevance depends on the particular specification, and that when Sub-Saharan African countries are eliminated and ethnic fractionalization is included, ethnic polarization becomes insignificant (coefficient 1.98, z=1.32).
- The paper also reports that ethnic polarization is only marginally significant using the Fearon and Laitin civil-war definition (coefficient 1.95, z=1.97).
- Evident from the text: the analysis is observational cross-country panel logit, so causal interpretation is limited; results may depend on group classification and data source, though the paper argues robustness across sources.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
50 Own result · 19 No basis given · 16 Own interpretation · 11 No full text of the sources · 6 Sources not found · 4 Not checked yet · 4 Own method · 1 Supported · 1 Supported so far · 1 Partly supported · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“In general the correlation between the index of fractionalization obtained using these alternative data sources is very high (over 0.8).”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2000)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Alesina et al (2003) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 2.2 reports a correlation of 0.88 between the paper’s linguistic index and the Soviet index, supporting one instance of the claim. But the corresponding ethnic-index correlation is 0.76, and the paper says the religious index has much lower correlations, so it does not support the generalization that correlations exceed 0.8. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“The correlation with the index of Alesina et al. (2003) is 0.83.”
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. (2003) source
The Introduction (page unavailable) says Alesina et al. construct new fractionalization indices, so the citation correctly identifies the source of an index. The 0.83 correlation is presented as the citing paper’s comparison, not as a result attributed to Alesina et al. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
“In the empirical section we show that the index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant explanatory variable for the incidence of civil wars.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satis es the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The index of ethnic fractionalization calculated with our data has a correlation of 0.86 with the index obtained using the Atlas Nadorov Mira (ELF).”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows that for low levels of fractionalization the correlation between ethnic fractionalization 20 and polarization is positive and high.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When we move from two groups to three groups the relationship between FRAC and Q breaks down.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 4 shows that religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is not statistically signi cant.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In column 7 we include together the index of ethnic polarization and religious polarization. Only the estimated coe¢ cient of the rst one is statistically signi cant.”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However only three out of the ten countries with the highest level of religious fractionalization su/ered a civil war.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Probably not a substantial claim. 19
- It may state two separate claims as one. 21
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative e/ect on growth.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine 1997 source
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. 2003 source
The Introduction says the paper broadly confirms earlier findings of a negative effect of ethnic fragmentation on growth. Section 3 reports an inverse relationship between ethnic fractionalization and per-capita growth, while noting that the association vanishes after controlling for potential mediating variables. Page numbers were not supplied. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Not matchedcites La Porta et al. 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the fractionalization index the size of each group has no e/ect on the weight of the probabilities of two individuals belonging to di/erent groups whereas in the Q index these probabilities are weighted by the relative size of each group.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless we should notice that only in 3,6% of the countries the number of groups is equal to two.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 3 checks the relative strength of the index of ethnic polarization versus fractionalization and shows that the coe¢ cient on ethnic fractionalization is not signi cantly di/erent from zero while the one on polarization is positive and signi cant.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows a similar pattern: for low levels of religious fractionalization the correlation with polarization is positive. However for intermediate and high levels of religious fractionalization the correlation is zero.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index is precisely the index DP (1 , 4) 13 .”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This implies a very high degree of polarization (0.96), and a low level of fractionalization (0.52).”
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Imagine now that we increase the size of one group by epsilon and decrease the size of another group by the same amount. Now the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of fractionalization is smaller than its relative size, c i < π i , and the reverse happens for the smallest group.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is easy to show that the discrete Gini index (DG) calculated using a discrete metric is simply the index of fractionalization”
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the index of polarization the result is the opposite: the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of polarization is larger than its relative size, ˜ c i > π i , and the reverse happens to the smallest group.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We showed in the previous section that the index of fractionalization can be interpreted as a Gini index with a discrete metric (belong/do not belong to the group) instead of an Euclidean income distance.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However for the medium range the correlation is zero and for high levels of fractionalization the correlation with polarization is negative.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 6 shows the basic logit regressions using both religious fractionalization and religious polarization. The coe¢ cient of the index of religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is marginally insigni cant while the index of religious polarization (RELPOL) is statistically signi cant.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In both cases the degree of religious fractionalization is low.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index captures the idea of a large majority versus a large minority as the worst possible situation since the index in this case is close to the maximum.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“The Q index can be interpreted as the polarization measure of Esteban and Ray (1994) with a discrete metric.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Esteban and Ray (1994) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Columns 1 and 2 show that ethnic polarization is statistically signi cant in the presence of regional dummies 31 , with and without the inclusion of ethnic fractionalization”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELPOL | | | | | 0.73 (1.00) | 3.90 (1.97) | 0.44 (0.65) | 3.29 (1.59) |”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHPOL | | 2.37 (2.97) | 2.28 (2.23) | | | | 2.27 (2.84) | 2.09 (2.03) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 2.31 (2.76) | 1.95 (1.97) | 2.33 (2.16) | 2.05 (2.41) | 2.31 (2.23) | 2.32 (2.74) | 2.11 (2.02) | 2.35 (2.12) | 2.13 (2.48) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 34 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 3.35 (2.46) | 3.42 (2.48) | 3.26 (2.37) | 3.53 (2.44) | 2.95 (2.15) | 3.27 (2.26) |”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHFRAC | 1.19 (1.89) | | 0.17 (0.19) | | | | | 0.04 (0.05) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHFRAC | -0.52 (0.65) | 0.01 (0.01) | 0.57 (0.62) | -0.06 (0.09) | 0.18 (0.20) | -0.73 (0.92) | -0.14 (0.15) | 0.57 (0.63) | -0.17 (0.23) |”
plain- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“opposite to what happens with the coe¢ cient of the index of fractionalization calculated using the same source (estimated coe¢ cient=1.27 and z=1.67).”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When ethnic dominance is included with the Q index, column 3, its coe¢ cient is not signi cant while ethnic polarization continues being a signi cant explanatory variable on the probability of civil wars.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELFRAC | | | | 0.37 (0.36) | | -4.97 (1.65) | | -4.45 (1.39) |”
plain- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Collier (2001) also emphasizes that the relationship between ethnic diversity and the risk of violent con icts is not monotonic. Highly heterogeneous societies have even a lower probability of civil wars than homogeneous societies. The highest risk is associated with the middle range of ethnic diversity. 8”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Collier (2001) source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Horowitz (1985), which is the seminal reference on the issue of ethnic groups in con ict, argues that the relationship between ethnic diversity and civil wars is not monotonic: there is less violence in highly homogeneous and highly heterogeneous societies, and more con icts in societies where a large ethnic minority faces an ethnic majority.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Horowitz (1985)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Finally Fearon and Laitin (2003) indicate that a large population implies di¢ culties in controlling what goes on at the local level and increases the number of potential rebels that can be recruited by the insurgents.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However their theoretical arguments, as they recognize explicitly, are based on polarized societies 4 not on highly fractionalized cases.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine (1997) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoe› er (2002) nd that neither ethnic fractionalization nor religious fractionalization have any statistically signi cant e/ect on the probability of civil wars.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) consider that the size of the population is an additional proxy for the bene ts of a rebellion since it measures potential labor income taxation.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) point out that the existence of natural resources provide an opportunity for rebellion since these resources can be used to nance the war and increases the payo/ if victory is achieved.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
“In this paper we have shown that the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
In the paper
“Notice also that Fearon (2003) points out that the index of fractionalization, being not sensitive to discontinuities, cannot capture important di/erences in ethnic structures. In particular the idea of majority rule is not well re ected by the index of fractionalization.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We argued before that a high number of di/erent groups increases the coordination problems and, therefore, given a level of polarization, the probability of civil wars may be smaller.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The absolute z-statistics in parenthesis are calculated using standard errors adjusted for clustering.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“In addition Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) con rm that ethnolinguistic fractionalization has a direct negative e/ect on growth, probably due to its impact on the transmission of ideas.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper relies on this without support.
Civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.
“There is no doubt that civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 11
“Figure 3 shows the relationship between the index of ethnic fractionalization and ethnic polarization constructed using the data of Alesina et al. (2003).”
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 14
“Figure 3: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Atlas Nadorov Mira.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 11
“Figure 4 shows ethnic fractionalization and polarization calculated using the data from the Atlas Nadorov Mira, the third basic source of data on ethnic diversity.”
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 15
“Figure 4: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Alesina et al. (2003).”
Citations
Cites
Mauro, P. (1995) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/2946696 · Cited by 8,820
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
FEARON, J. D., & LAITIN, D. D. (2003) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055403000534 · Cited by 7,366
(2012) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.102.7.i · Cited by 7,275
Greed and grievance in civil war
Collier, P. D. (2004) · Oxford Economic Papers · doi:10.1093/oep/gpf064 · Cited by 6,295
La Porta, R. (1999) · Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization · doi:10.1093/jleo/15.1.222 · Cited by 5,699
Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions
Easterly, W., & Levine, R. (1997) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355300555466 · Cited by 5,649 · cited 4×
“The index of ethnic 4 Easterly and Levine, 1997, pp. 1205, 1232, and 1241. fractionalization has a simple interpretation as the probability that two randomly selected individuals from a given country will not belong to the same ethnic group.5 Many authors have found, however, that even though…”
BackgroundInfluentialKuper, L., & Horowitz, D. L. (1986) · Contemporary Sociology A Journal of Reviews · doi:10.2307/2069338 · Cited by 4,891
Mauro, P. (1995) · doi:10.1007/s12117-997-1097-9 · Cited by 4,683
Alesina, A., Devleeschauwer, A., Easterly, W., Kurlat, S., & Wacziarg, R. (2003) · Journal of Economic Growth · doi:10.1023/a:1024471506938 · Cited by 3,432
On economic causes of civil war
Collier, P. D. (1998) · Oxford Economic Papers · doi:10.1093/oep/50.4.563 · Cited by 2,523 · cited 3×
“This result is consistent with Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoeffler (1998).”
BackgroundResult
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- Barrett, David B., ed., World Christian encyclopedia. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1982.
- Paxton John, New York: Macmillan, 1983, 1985
- Wolfson Michael C, 1994, American Economic Review, 84
Cited by
Sorted by citations
US Food Aid and Civil Conflict
Nunn, N., & Qian, N. (2014) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.104.6.1630 · Cited by 2,104
Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Data Set
Wimmer, A., Cederman, L., & Min, B. (2009) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.1177/000312240907400208 · Cited by 1,059
McCoy, J., Rahman, T., & Somer, M. (2018) · American Behavioral Scientist · doi:10.1177/0002764218759576 · Cited by 1,023
Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War
Cederman, L.-E., Gleditsch, K. S., & Buhaug, H. (2013) · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139084161 · Cited by 978
Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis
Cederman, L.-E., Wimmer, A., & Min, B. (2010) · World Politics · doi:10.1017/s0043887109990219 · Cited by 1,346
Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain? How Legislatures Affect Economic Growth and Investment
Wright, J. (2008) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00315.x · Cited by 702
Birthplace diversity and economic prosperity
Alesina, A., Harnoss, J., & Hillel Rapoport, C. (2016) · Journal of Economic Growth · doi:10.1007/s10887-016-9127-6 · Cited by 675
“…concerns.6 Empirically, diversity is commonly measured by ethno-linguistic fractionalization (Easterly and Levine 1997; Alesina et al. 2003; Fearon 2003; Desmet et al. 2012) and ethno-linguistic polarization indices (Esteban and Ray 1994; Reynal-Querol 2002 and Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005).”
BackgroundVolatility and the natural resource curse
van der Ploeg, F., & Poelhekke, S. (2009) · Oxford Economic Papers · doi:10.1093/oep/gpp027 · Cited by 613
Climate, conflict and forced migration
Abel, G. J., Brottrager, M., Crespo Cuaresma, J., & Muttarak, R. (2019) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003 · Cited by 564
“There is evidence that violence, in particular, serves as a main push factor in the case of forced migration (Moore and Shellman, 2004; Schmeidl, 1997).”
BackgroundThe Origins of Ethnolinguistic Diversity
Michalopoulos, S. (2012) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.102.4.1508 · Cited by 557
Ethnicity and Conflict: An Empirical Study
Esteban, J. M., Mayoral, L., & Ray, D. (2012) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.102.4.1310 · Cited by 560
“It might be argued (see, e.g., Schneider and Wiesehomeier, 2006) that the factors that contribute to the outbreak of a war do not coincide with the ones that keep feeding it.”
BackgroundReligion and Preferences for Social Insurance
Scheve, K. F., & Stasavage, D. (2006) · Quarterly Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1561/100.00005052 · Cited by 462
“23 This variable is from Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005).”
BackgroundBeyond Fractionalization: Mapping Ethnicity onto Nationalist Insurgencies
Cederman, L., & Girardin, L. (2007) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055407070086 · Cited by 461
Polarization, Horizontal Inequalities and Violent Civil Conflict
Østby, G. (2008) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343307087169 · Cited by 749
Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices
Bazzi, S., & Blattman, C. (2013) · American Economic Journal Macroeconomics · doi:10.1257/mac.6.4.1 · Cited by 455
The long-run effects of the scramble for Africa
Michalopoulos, S., & Papaioannou, E. (2016) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20131311 · Cited by 424
“Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005b) and Esteban et al. (2010) show a strong negative correlation between ethnolinguistic polarization and conflict.”
BackgroundON THE THEORY OF ETHNIC CONFLICT
Caselli, F., & Coleman, W. J. (2006) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01103.x · Cited by 413
Linking Conflict to Inequality and Polarization
Esteban, J. M., & Ray, D. (2011) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.101.4.1345 · Cited by 397
Churchill, S. A., & Smyth, R. (2020) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104663 · Cited by 400
What drives international financial flows? Politics, institutions and other determinants
Papaioannou, E. (2008) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2008.04.001 · Cited by 386
Social Media, Echo Chambers, and Political Polarization
Barberá, P. (2020) · Social Media and Democracy · doi:10.1017/9781108890960.004 · Cited by 373
“…and the comparative empirical evidence on this question is scarce, despite the well-known link between polarization and political violence in countries with high levels of ethnic fractionalization (see, e.g., Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005 ), which increases the urgency of research on this area.”
Seeds of distrust: conflict in Uganda
Rohner, D., Thoenig, M., & Zilibotti, F. (2013) · Journal of Economic Growth · doi:10.1007/s10887-013-9093-1 · Cited by 371
Laurence, J. (2009) · European Sociological Review · doi:10.1093/esr/jcp057 · Cited by 362
“…ow nloaded from of ethnic fractionalisation and ethnic polarization in the incidence of interethnic violence (Easterly and Levine, 1997; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005a; 2005b), exploring the possibility that propensity for conflict is greater not with increasing heterogeneity but…”
BackgroundKalyvas, S. N. (2008) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414008317949 · Cited by 366
The political economy of linguistic cleavages
Desmet, K., Ortuño-Ortı́n, I., & Wacziarg, R. T. (2011) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.02.003 · Cited by 367
“We use the polarization measure from Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialRivalry and Revenge: Violence against Civilians in Conventional Civil Wars1
Balcells, L. (2010) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2010.00588.x · Cited by 361
Migration, Diversity, and Economic Growth
Bove, V., & Elia, L. (2016) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.08.012 · Cited by 366
“Yet, whereas several authors have argued theoretically in terms of polarization but used as an empirical proxy the index of fractionalization, Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005a) show how polarization is better suited to capture the concept of social tensions.”
BackgroundInfluentialThe Legacy of Historical Conflict: Evidence from Africa
BESLEY, T., & REYNAL-QUEROL, M. (2014) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055414000161 · Cited by 322
Self-citationLinguistic Diversity and Redistribution
Desmet, K., Ortuño-Ortín, I., & Weber, S. (2009) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1162/jeea.2009.7.6.1291 · Cited by 324
“In contrast to Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005), who demonstrate the relevance of polarization in the context of ethnic con ‡ict, we show that diversity and polarization are similar in their impact on redistribution.”
BackgroundResultOn the Salience of Ethnic Conflict
Esteban, J. M., & Ray, D. (2008) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.98.5.2185 · Cited by 324
Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross Country Evidence Really Show?
Cotet, A., & Tsui, K. K. (2013) · American Economic Journal Macroeconomics · doi:10.1257/mac.5.1.49 · Cited by 317
Political Marginalization, Climate Change, and Conflict in African Sahel States
Raleigh, C. (2010) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2486.2009.00913.x · Cited by 276
Intergroup conflict and Intra-Group punishment in an experimental contest game
Abbink, K., Brandts, J., Herrmann, B., & Orzen, H. (2010) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.100.1.420 · Cited by 264
“Numerous studies have empirically investigated the impact of economic growth (Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti, 2004), or ethnic polarisation and fragmentation (Fearon and Laitin, 2003; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005 ) on likelihood and intensity of civil conflict.”
Openness and income: The roles of trade and migration
Ortega, F., & Peri, G. (2013) · Journal of International Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2013.11.008 · Cited by 296
“55 Garcia-Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005a, 2005b) argue that it is more appropriate to use polarization, as opposed to fractionalization measures.”
BackgroundSocial Identification and Ethnic Conflict
Sambanis, N., & Shayo, M. (2013) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055413000038 · Cited by 280
Geography, poverty and conflict in Nepal
Do, Q., & Iyer, L. (2010) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343310386175 · Cited by 277
“While Fearon & Laitin (2003) find no effect of social divisions (measured by ethnic fractionalization), Montalvo & Reynal-Querol (2005) find a strong relationship between social divisions and civil war, when social divisions are measured using a polarization index, which is discussed in detail in…”
BackgroundResultSquare Pegs in Round Holes: Inequalities, Grievances, and Civil War
Buhaug, H., Cederman, L., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2013) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/isqu.12068 · Cited by 269
“Others have argued that it is not so much diversity that increases the risk of conflict but polarization, especially a situation where two large ethnic groups face one another (Forsberg 2008; Horowitz 1985; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005; Østby 2008).”
BackgroundEsteban, J. M., Gradín, C., & Ray, D. (2006) · The Journal of Economic Inequality · doi:10.1007/s10888-006-9032-x · Cited by 247
Culture, Ethnicity and Diversity
Desmet, K., Ortuño-Ortín, I., & Wacziarg, R. T. (2015) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20150243 · Cited by 269
Can cultural norms reduce conflicts? Confucianism and peasant rebellions in Qing China
Kung, J. K., & Ma, C. (2014) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.08.006 · Cited by 253
Voting intentions in Africa: ethnic, economic or partisan?
Bratton, M., Bhavnani, R., & Chen, T.-H. (2012) · Commonwealth and Comparative Politics · doi:10.1080/14662043.2012.642121 · Cited by 242
“To capture social context, we employ statistics that measure the fractionalisation of ‘politically relevant ethnic groups’ (PREG) (Posner, 2004)14 and the degree of ethnic polarisation, the maximal when individuals belong to one of two rival groups of the same size, the former maximal when every individual belongs to…”
BackgroundMethodCultural diversity and economic growth: Evidence from the US during the age of mass migration
Ager, P., & Brüeckner, M. (2013) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.07.011 · Cited by 236
Neighborhood Ethnic Diversity and Trust
Schmid, K., Ramiah, A. A., & Hewstone, M. (2014) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/0956797613508956 · Cited by 248
“For White British respondents, we used the ethnic-fractionalization index (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005), which ranges from 0 (low) to 1 (high); higher scores reflect greater probability of encountering a non-White British person in the neighborhood.”
MethodHorizontal Inequality, Crosscutting Cleavages, and Civil War
Gubler, J. R., & Selway, J. S. (2012) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002711431416 · Cited by 227
“Results were mixed, however, even for studies that used similar measures (Collier and Hoeffler 1998, 2000, 2004; Fearon and Laitin 2003; Reynal-Querol 2002; Posner 2004; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005; Kalyvas 2007; Fearon, Kasara, and Laitin 2007; Wimmer, Cederman, and Min 2009).”
BackgroundResultPolarization, Fractionalization and Conflict
Esteban, J. M., & Ray, D. (2008) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343307087175 · Cited by 229
Geography as Motivation and Opportunity
Weidmann, N. B. (2009) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002709336456 · Cited by 227
Economic and social factors driving the third wave of democratization
Papaioannou, E., & Siourounis, G. D. (2008) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2008.04.005 · Cited by 222
Implications of an Economic Theory of Conflict: Hindu-Muslim Violence in India
Mitra, A., & Ray, D. (2014) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/676316 · Cited by 223
The Effect of Civil War on Education, 1980—97
Lai, B. H., & Thyne, C. L. (2007) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343307076631 · Cited by 230
Bad Religion? Religion, Collective Action, and the Onset of Armed Conflict in Developing Countries
Basedau, M., Pfeiffer, B., & Vüllers, J. (2014) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002714541853 · Cited by 223
Misinformation, Disinformation, and Online Propaganda
Guess, A. M., & Lyons, B. A. (2020) · Social Media and Democracy · doi:10.1017/9781108890960.003 · Cited by 284
Alesina, A., Easterly, W. R., & Matuszeski, J. (2006) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1111/j.1542-4774.2010.01009.x · Cited by 206
Separate and Suspicious: Local Social and Political Context and Ethnic Tolerance in Kenya
Kasara, K. (2013) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1017/s0022381613000777 · Cited by 198
Determinants of International Emergency Aid—Humanitarian Need Only?
Fink, G., & Redaelli, S. (2010) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2010.09.004 · Cited by 213
“Higher fractionalization is generally associated with higher risk of internal conflicts, lower provision of public goods and higher inequality levels (Easterly and Levine, 1997; Garcia-Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundThe economic effects of violent conflict: Evidence from asset market reactions
Guidolin, M., & Ferrara, E. L. (2010) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343310381853 · Cited by 228
“Some of these studies explore the factors that affect the likelihood of conflict onset and duration (e.g. Collier & Hoeffler, 1998, 2004; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005); other studies find a negative relationship between political instability and investments (e.g. Alesina & Perotti, 1996;…”
BackgroundWar Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust, and Conflict
Rohner, D., Thoenig, M., & Zilibotti, F. (2013) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdt003 · Cited by 202
Education, Language and Identity
Clots‐Figueras, I., & Masella, P. (2013) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/ecoj.12051 · Cited by 207
Ethnicity and Conflict: Theory and Facts
Esteban, J. M., Mayoral, L., & Ray, D. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1222240 · Cited by 202
Unity in Diversity? How Intergroup Contact Can Foster Nation Building
Bazzi, S., Gaduh, A., Rothenberg, A. D., & Wong, M. (2019) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20180174 · Cited by 194
Polarization and Conflict: Theoretical and Empirical Issues
Esteban, J. M., & Schneider, G. (2008) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343307087168 · Cited by 197
Historical Legacies and African Development
Michalopoulos, S., & Papaioannou, E. (2020) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.20181447 · Cited by 202
On the simultaneity problem in the aid and growth debate
Brüeckner, M. (2011) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.1259 · Cited by 179
Esteban, J. M., Morelli, M., & Rohner, D. (2015) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/682584 · Cited by 187
The Measurement of Cross-cutting Cleavages and Other Multidimensional Cleavage Structures
Selway, J. (2011) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/mpq036 · Cited by 186
Parochial Politics: Ethnic Preferences and Politician CorruptionPreprint
Banerjee, A., & Pande, R. (2007) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.976548 · Cited by 178
Can states buy peace? Social welfare spending and civil conflicts
Taydaş, Z., & Peksen, D. (2012) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343311431286 · Cited by 183
Measuring Ethnic Voting: Do Proportional Electoral Laws Politicize Ethnicity?
Huber, J. D. (2012) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00601.x · Cited by 173
“For example, if the “purple” group is one of Fearon’s groups and this group cannot be identified in a survey, then the survey is discarded if the purple group has more than 10% of the population in Fearon’s data.”
BackgroundA Confirmation Bias View on Social Media Induced Polarisation During Covid-19
Modgil, S., Singh, R. K., Gupta, S., & Dennehy, D. (2021) · Information Systems Frontiers · doi:10.1007/s10796-021-10222-9 · Cited by 197
“The proliferation of social media has been a catalyst to inducing a dangerous, socio-cultural polarisation of society (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005; Spohr, 2017; Vishwa-nath, 2015).”
Genetic Diversity and the Origins of Cultural Fragmentation
Ashraf, Q. H., & Galor, O. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.3.528 · Cited by 177
“…by Esteban, Mayoral and Ray (2012), across the ethnic groups in a country’s population, where ethnic groups by country are classified according to Fearon (2003) and the definition of polarization that is applied is the one due to Reynal-Querol (2002) and Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005).”
Economic growth, size of the agricultural sector, and urbanization in Africa
Brüeckner, M. (2011) · Journal of Urban Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jue.2011.08.004 · Cited by 166
Can the MDGs Provide a Pathway to Social Justice? The Challenge of Intersecting Inequalities
Kabeer, N. (2010) · SOAS Research Online (SOAS University of London) · Cited by 164
Ecology, trade and states in pre-colonial Africa
Fenske, J. (2011) · repository of the Library and Information Centre, Hungarian Academy of Sciences (REAL-J) · Cited by 171
Buhaug, H. (2010) · Conflict Management and Peace Science · doi:10.1177/0738894209343974 · Cited by 164
Collective Action in Diverse Sierra Leone Communities
Glennerster, R., Miguel, E. A., & Rothenberg, A. D. (2013) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/ecoj.12030 · Cited by 155
“4 Using Montalvo and Reynal-Querol’s (2005) preferred ethnic polarisation measure in place of ELFi does not change the main result of no ethnic impacts below (estimates not shown).”
InfluentialPromises and pitfalls of an emerging research program: the microdynamics of civil war
Kalyvas, S. N. (2008) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511755903.017 · Cited by 152
Esteban, J. M., & Ray, D. (2011) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1111/j.1542-4774.2010.01016.x · Cited by 159
Aid with multiple personalities
Djankov, S., Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal‐Querol, M. (2008) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2008.09.005 · Cited by 151
Self-citationArbatlı, C. E., Ashraf, Q. H., Galor, O., & Klemp, M. (2020) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta13734 · Cited by 167
Ray, D., & Esteban, J. M. (2017) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205 · Cited by 172
“This is the index used by Montalvo & Reynal-Querol (2005) in their study of the determinants of intermediate- and high-intensity civil war, as defined by the PRIO.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialWhat's in a Line? Is Partition a Solution to Civil War?
Sambanis, N., & Schulhofer-Wohl, J. (2009) · International Security · doi:10.1162/isec.2009.34.2.82 · Cited by 147
Stichnoth, H., & der Straeten, K. V. (2011) · Journal of Economic Surveys · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6419.2011.00711.x · Cited by 152
“In one study (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005a) they also study economic growth and come to the opposite conclusion than Alesina et al. (2003), namely that polarization is more strongly associated with growth than fractionalization.”
Regime legitimation, elite cohesion and the durability of autocratic regime types
Kailitz, S., & Stockemer, D. (2015) · International Political Science Review · doi:10.1177/0192512115616830 · Cited by 153
“Despite the fact that the empirical results on relationships between ethnic fractionalization and insurgency and civil war are mixed (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005; Easterly and Levine, 1997), we have decided to include this factor.”
BackgroundRevisiting the greed and grievance explanations for violent internal conflict
Murshed, S. M., & Tadjoeddin, M. Z. (2008) · Journal of International Development · doi:10.1002/jid.1478 · Cited by 153
“Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) find that ethnic polarisation is a significant explanatory variable for civil war onset, while ethnic fractionalisation is not.”
BackgroundSupport for Redistribution in Western Europe: Assessing the role of religion
Stegmueller, D., Scheepers, P. L. H., Roßteutscher, S., & de Jong, E. (2011) · European Sociological Review · doi:10.1093/esr/jcr011 · Cited by 146
“Finding a distance measure is not easy, which is why it is often left out of widely used polarization and fractionalization indices (e.g Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2002, 2005a, b; Alesina et al. 2003).”
Ethno-Nationalist Dyads and Civil War
Cederman, L., Buhaug, H., & Rød, J. K. (2009) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002709336455 · Cited by 144
Churchill, S. A., & Smyth, R. (2017) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.02.032 · Cited by 150
Ginsburgh, V. A., & Weber, S. (2020) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.20191316 · Cited by 167
Violence “from above” or “from below”? The Role of Ethnicity in Bosnia’s Civil War
Weidmann, N. B. (2011) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1017/s0022381611000831 · Cited by 140
Natural resources and income inequality: The role of ethnic divisions
Fum, R. M., & Hodler, R. (2010) · Economics Letters · doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2010.03.008 · Cited by 137
Resource Curse and Power Balance: Evidence from Oil-Rich Countries
Bjorvatn, K., Farzanegan, M. R., & SCHNEIDER, F. G. (2012) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.03.003 · Cited by 141
Spolaore, E., & Wacziarg, R. T. (2009) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_00554 · Cited by 136
“…This theoretical ambiguity is reflected in the ongoing debate on the role of ethnic divisions in fostering civil conflict, including contributions by Fearon and Laitin (2003), Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005), and Desmet, Ortuño-Ortín, and Wacziarg (2012, 2015), among many others.”
A Generalized Index of Fractionalization
Bossert, W., D’Ambrosio, C., & Ferrara, E. L. (2010) · Economica · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0335.2010.00844.x · Cited by 141
“In economics, the index of ethnic polarization RQ (see Reynal-Querol 2002; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005) shares a structure similar to that of ELF and of GELF.”
BackgroundON ETHNIC CONFLICT AND THE ORIGINS OF TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM
Basuchoudhary, A., & Shughart, W. F. (2010) · Defence and Peace Economics · doi:10.1080/10242690902868343 · Cited by 136
Resource concentration and civil wars
Morelli, M., & Rohner, D. (2015) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.06.003 · Cited by 143
Do Religious Factors Impact Armed Conflict? Empirical Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa
Basedau, M., Strüver, G., Vüllers, J., & Wegenast, T. C. (2011) · Terrorism and Political Violence · doi:10.1080/09546553.2011.619240 · Cited by 139
Albertus, M., Fenner, S., & Slater, D. (2018) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108644334 · Cited by 136
Østby, G., Urdal, H., Tadjoeddin, M. Z., Murshed, S. M., & Strand, H. (2011) · The Journal of Development Studies · doi:10.1080/00220388.2010.506911 · Cited by 124
“Following Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005: 798) we define polarisation as: RQ ¼ 1 XN r¼1 1=2 pr 1=2 2 pr ð1Þ where pr denotes the population share of religious group r in a province.”
BackgroundFacts and Where to Find Them: Empirical Research on Internet Platforms and Content Moderation
Keller, D., & Leerssen, P. (2020) · Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) · doi:10.1017/9781108890960
Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text
Mueller, H., & Rauh, C. (2017) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055417000570 · Cited by 134
On the Ethnic Origins of African Development: Chiefs and Precolonial Political Centralization
Michalopoulos, S., & Papaioannou, E. (2014) · Academy of Management Perspectives · doi:10.5465/amp.2012.0162 · Cited by 121
Metadata
- Authors
- Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal-Querol, M.
- Affiliations
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
- The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433.
- ORCID
- Montalvo, José G
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2005-06-01
- Volume
- 95
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 796-816
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1975264861
- Semantic Scholar
- d34e25710e0f59c77127215c237c4e3a5a19820b
- Cited by
- 1,386
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 33 · 2025: 63 · 2024: 64 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 97 · 2021: 76 · 2020: 89 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 77 · 2017: 61 · 2016: 70 · 2015: 90 · 2014: 79 · 2013: 80 · 2012: 61
- FWCI
- 145.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Development › Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Keywords
- ethnic fractionalization, ethnic conflict, civil war, ethnic distance, ethnic diversity, economic growth, political instability, corruption, investment, ethnic classification
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-13, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-13 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
