The DOI matches its Crossref record; 40 of the 41 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 30 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars
Abstract
This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
The paper argues that ethnic fractionalization is the wrong measure for capturing potential conflict; an ethnic polarization index (Q) better predicts civil war incidence. Using logit regressions on 138 countries from 1960–99, ethnic polarization is positive and significant while ethnic fractionalization is not.
Key findings
- Ethnic fractionalization (ETHFRAC) has no statistically significant effect on civil war incidence (coefficient 1.19, z=1.89 in column 1), consistent with Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoeffler (1998).
- Ethnic polarization (ETHPOL) has a positive and statistically significant effect: coefficient 2.37 (z=2.97) alone, and 2.28 (z=2.23) when ETHFRAC is included; ETHFRAC remains insignificant (0.17, z=0.19).
- The effect is economically important: moving polarization from the average (0.51) to Guinea’s level (0.84) almost doubles the probability of conflict; a one-standard-deviation increase (0.24) raises the probability by 67%.
- Robustness checks support ethnic polarization across alternative civil-war definitions (PRIO1000, PRIO25, Doyle–Sambanis, Fearon–Laitin), alternative data sources (Alesina et al., Atlas Narodov Mira), regional dummies, and cross-section regressions; religious polarization is less robust and depends on specification.
Methods
- Logit regressions for civil war incidence using a panel of 138 countries over 1960–99, divided into five-year periods; dependent variable is PRIOCW (PRIO intermediate/high-intensity civil war), with robustness using PRIO1000, PRIO25, DSCW, and FLCW definitions.
- Core explanatory variables: log real GDP per capita at period start (LGDPC), log population (LPOP), primary exports (PRIMEXP), mountains (MOUNTAINS), noncontiguous state (NONCONT), and democracy (DEMOCRACY); ethnic and religious fractionalization/polarization indices are added.
- Ethnic heterogeneity data primarily from the World Christian Encyclopedia; religious data from L’Etat des Religions dans le Monde and The Statesman’s Yearbook; robustness uses Alesina et al. (2003) and Atlas Narodov Mira data.
Limitations
- The paper states no formal limitations section. It notes that religious polarization’s statistical relevance depends on the particular specification, and that when Sub-Saharan African countries are eliminated and ethnic fractionalization is included, ethnic polarization becomes insignificant (coefficient 1.98, z=1.32).
- The paper also reports that ethnic polarization is only marginally significant using the Fearon and Laitin civil-war definition (coefficient 1.95, z=1.97).
- Evident from the text: the analysis is observational cross-country panel logit, so causal interpretation is limited; results may depend on group classification and data source, though the paper argues robustness across sources.
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Claims the paper makes
50 Own result · 19 No basis given · 16 Own interpretation · 11 No full text of the sources · 6 Sources not found · 4 Not checked yet · 4 Own method · 1 Supported · 1 Supported so far · 1 Partly supported · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“In general the correlation between the index of fractionalization obtained using these alternative data sources is very high (over 0.8).”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2000)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Alesina et al (2003) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 2.2 reports a correlation of 0.88 between the paper’s linguistic index and the Soviet index, supporting one instance of the claim. But the corresponding ethnic-index correlation is 0.76, and the paper says the religious index has much lower correlations, so it does not support the generalization that correlations exceed 0.8. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- Not matched
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“The correlation with the index of Alesina et al. (2003) is 0.83.”
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. (2003) source
The Introduction (page unavailable) says Alesina et al. construct new fractionalization indices, so the citation correctly identifies the source of an index. The 0.83 correlation is presented as the citing paper’s comparison, not as a result attributed to Alesina et al. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
“In the empirical section we show that the index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant explanatory variable for the incidence of civil wars.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satis es the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The index of ethnic fractionalization calculated with our data has a correlation of 0.86 with the index obtained using the Atlas Nadorov Mira (ELF).”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows that for low levels of fractionalization the correlation between ethnic fractionalization 20 and polarization is positive and high.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When we move from two groups to three groups the relationship between FRAC and Q breaks down.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 4 shows that religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is not statistically signi cant.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In column 7 we include together the index of ethnic polarization and religious polarization. Only the estimated coe¢ cient of the rst one is statistically signi cant.”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However only three out of the ten countries with the highest level of religious fractionalization su/ered a civil war.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Probably not a substantial claim. 19
- It may state two separate claims as one. 21
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative e/ect on growth.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine 1997 source
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. 2003 source
The Introduction says the paper broadly confirms earlier findings of a negative effect of ethnic fragmentation on growth. Section 3 reports an inverse relationship between ethnic fractionalization and per-capita growth, while noting that the association vanishes after controlling for potential mediating variables. Page numbers were not supplied. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Not matchedcites La Porta et al. 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the fractionalization index the size of each group has no e/ect on the weight of the probabilities of two individuals belonging to di/erent groups whereas in the Q index these probabilities are weighted by the relative size of each group.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless we should notice that only in 3,6% of the countries the number of groups is equal to two.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 3 checks the relative strength of the index of ethnic polarization versus fractionalization and shows that the coe¢ cient on ethnic fractionalization is not signi cantly di/erent from zero while the one on polarization is positive and signi cant.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows a similar pattern: for low levels of religious fractionalization the correlation with polarization is positive. However for intermediate and high levels of religious fractionalization the correlation is zero.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index is precisely the index DP (1 , 4) 13 .”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This implies a very high degree of polarization (0.96), and a low level of fractionalization (0.52).”
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Imagine now that we increase the size of one group by epsilon and decrease the size of another group by the same amount. Now the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of fractionalization is smaller than its relative size, c i < π i , and the reverse happens for the smallest group.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is easy to show that the discrete Gini index (DG) calculated using a discrete metric is simply the index of fractionalization”
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the index of polarization the result is the opposite: the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of polarization is larger than its relative size, ˜ c i > π i , and the reverse happens to the smallest group.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We showed in the previous section that the index of fractionalization can be interpreted as a Gini index with a discrete metric (belong/do not belong to the group) instead of an Euclidean income distance.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However for the medium range the correlation is zero and for high levels of fractionalization the correlation with polarization is negative.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 6 shows the basic logit regressions using both religious fractionalization and religious polarization. The coe¢ cient of the index of religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is marginally insigni cant while the index of religious polarization (RELPOL) is statistically signi cant.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In both cases the degree of religious fractionalization is low.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index captures the idea of a large majority versus a large minority as the worst possible situation since the index in this case is close to the maximum.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“The Q index can be interpreted as the polarization measure of Esteban and Ray (1994) with a discrete metric.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Esteban and Ray (1994) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Columns 1 and 2 show that ethnic polarization is statistically signi cant in the presence of regional dummies 31 , with and without the inclusion of ethnic fractionalization”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELPOL | | | | | 0.73 (1.00) | 3.90 (1.97) | 0.44 (0.65) | 3.29 (1.59) |”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHPOL | | 2.37 (2.97) | 2.28 (2.23) | | | | 2.27 (2.84) | 2.09 (2.03) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 2.31 (2.76) | 1.95 (1.97) | 2.33 (2.16) | 2.05 (2.41) | 2.31 (2.23) | 2.32 (2.74) | 2.11 (2.02) | 2.35 (2.12) | 2.13 (2.48) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 34 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 3.35 (2.46) | 3.42 (2.48) | 3.26 (2.37) | 3.53 (2.44) | 2.95 (2.15) | 3.27 (2.26) |”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The quote only partly states this claim.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHFRAC | 1.19 (1.89) | | 0.17 (0.19) | | | | | 0.04 (0.05) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHFRAC | -0.52 (0.65) | 0.01 (0.01) | 0.57 (0.62) | -0.06 (0.09) | 0.18 (0.20) | -0.73 (0.92) | -0.14 (0.15) | 0.57 (0.63) | -0.17 (0.23) |”
plain- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“opposite to what happens with the coe¢ cient of the index of fractionalization calculated using the same source (estimated coe¢ cient=1.27 and z=1.67).”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When ethnic dominance is included with the Q index, column 3, its coe¢ cient is not signi cant while ethnic polarization continues being a signi cant explanatory variable on the probability of civil wars.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELFRAC | | | | 0.37 (0.36) | | -4.97 (1.65) | | -4.45 (1.39) |”
plain- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Collier (2001) also emphasizes that the relationship between ethnic diversity and the risk of violent con icts is not monotonic. Highly heterogeneous societies have even a lower probability of civil wars than homogeneous societies. The highest risk is associated with the middle range of ethnic diversity. 8”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Collier (2001) source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Horowitz (1985), which is the seminal reference on the issue of ethnic groups in con ict, argues that the relationship between ethnic diversity and civil wars is not monotonic: there is less violence in highly homogeneous and highly heterogeneous societies, and more con icts in societies where a large ethnic minority faces an ethnic majority.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Horowitz (1985)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Finally Fearon and Laitin (2003) indicate that a large population implies di¢ culties in controlling what goes on at the local level and increases the number of potential rebels that can be recruited by the insurgents.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However their theoretical arguments, as they recognize explicitly, are based on polarized societies 4 not on highly fractionalized cases.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine (1997) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoe› er (2002) nd that neither ethnic fractionalization nor religious fractionalization have any statistically signi cant e/ect on the probability of civil wars.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) consider that the size of the population is an additional proxy for the bene ts of a rebellion since it measures potential labor income taxation.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) point out that the existence of natural resources provide an opportunity for rebellion since these resources can be used to nance the war and increases the payo/ if victory is achieved.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
“In this paper we have shown that the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
In the paper
“Notice also that Fearon (2003) points out that the index of fractionalization, being not sensitive to discontinuities, cannot capture important di/erences in ethnic structures. In particular the idea of majority rule is not well re ected by the index of fractionalization.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We argued before that a high number of di/erent groups increases the coordination problems and, therefore, given a level of polarization, the probability of civil wars may be smaller.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The absolute z-statistics in parenthesis are calculated using standard errors adjusted for clustering.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“In addition Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) con rm that ethnolinguistic fractionalization has a direct negative e/ect on growth, probably due to its impact on the transmission of ideas.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper relies on this without support.
Civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.
“There is no doubt that civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 11
“Figure 3 shows the relationship between the index of ethnic fractionalization and ethnic polarization constructed using the data of Alesina et al. (2003).”
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 14
“Figure 3: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Atlas Nadorov Mira.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 11
“Figure 4 shows ethnic fractionalization and polarization calculated using the data from the Atlas Nadorov Mira, the third basic source of data on ethnic diversity.”
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 15
“Figure 4: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Alesina et al. (2003).”
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Sorted by citations
Items 701–800 of 1,383
A Generalized Index of Ethno-Linguistic Fractionalization ∗
Bossert, W., & Ferrara, E. L. (2005) · Cited by 7
A General Class of Social Distance Measures
Brown, G. K., & Langer, A. (2016) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/mpw002 · Cited by 6
“Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005), however, have argued that for certain socio-economic and political outcomes, the patterns of demographic structure picked up by FRAC may not be the most appropriate, theoretically or empirically.”
BackgroundStability in deeply divided societies: escaping ethnic-based armed conflict in Guinea
Bah, M. D. (2016) · African Identities · doi:10.1080/14725843.2016.1143800 · Cited by 7
“…of the literature maintains that violent conflicts and civil wars are often the feature of nations with deep ethnic divisions (Guelke, 2012, p. 33; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005, p. 796). ellingsen (2000) found that ‘countries with several groups (3–4) have higher risk of civil conflict than…”
BackgroundConsequences of Linguistic Distance for Economic Growth
Gören, E. (2017) · Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1111/obes.12205 · Cited by 7
Doorenspleet, R. (2018) · The theories, concepts and practices of democracy · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-91656-9_4 · Cited by 8
Commodity Windfalls, Polarization, and Net Foreign Assets
Brückner, M., & Arezki, R. (2010) · IMF Working Paper · doi:10.5089/9781455205400.001 · Cited by 7
Siburian, M. E. (2019) · International Journal of Social Economics · doi:10.1108/ijse-12-2018-0661 · Cited by 7
Diversity Deficit and Scale-Flip
Bharathi, N., Malghan, D. V., Mishra, S., & Rahman, A. (2020) · The Journal of Development Studies · doi:10.1080/00220388.2020.1802011 · Cited by 7
“…empirical support across a range of outcomes beyond public goods provision including increased conflicts (Collier, 2004; Collier & Hoeffler, 1998; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005); reduced social trust (Alesina & La Ferrara, 2002; Dinesen & Sønderskov, 2015); social cohesion (van der Meer &…”
Security of Property Rights for Whom?
Lawson-Remer, T. (2014) · Oxford Development Studies · doi:10.1080/13600818.2013.878327 · Cited by 10
“…played by ethnic cleavages: some studies indicate that high degrees of social fractionalization make civil war more likely (Reynal-Querol, 2002; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005), but other studies indicate that social fractionalization, which includes both religious and ethnic cleavages, is…”
BackgroundAn Assessment of the Causes of Conflict in Nepal
Tiwari, B. N. (2007) · UNM’s Digital Repository (University of New Mexico) · doi:10.4324/9780203869390-25 · Cited by 10
Mergers of Equals and UnequalsPreprint
Smeets, V., Ierulli, K., & Gibbs, M. J. (2006) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.947081 · Cited by 7
When Does Ethnic Diversity Lead to Violence? Evidence from the 2007 Elections in KenyaPreprint
Markussen, T., & Mbuvi, K. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1891796 · Cited by 7
“The RQ index was the measure of polarization used in Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005.”
MethodIdentity and language policiesPreprint
Masella, P., Clots‐Figueras, I., & Aspachs-Bracons, O. (2007) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 7
Post-Conflict Recovery: Resource Mobilization and PeacebuildingPreprint
Boyce, J. K. (2008) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.7275/1282859 · Cited by 8
FDI, the Brain Drain and Trade: Channels and EvidencePreprint
Ivļevs, A., & de Mélo, J. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1399554 · Cited by 7
Clientelism and ethnic divisionPreprint
Isaksson, A., & Bigsten, A. (2014) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 7
Democratization, Violent Social Conflicts, and GrowthPreprint
Cervellati, M., & Sunde, U. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1812528 · Cited by 7
Trade and Civil Conflict: Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence
Cali, M. A., & Mulabdić, A. (2014) · The World Bank Open Knowledge Repository (World Bank) · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-7125 · Cited by 8
Untouchability And Public Infrastructure
Bros, C., & Couttenier, M. (2010) · HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) · Cited by 7
Kinship and Conflict: Evidence from Segmentary Lineage Societies in Sub-Saharan Africa
Moscona, J., Nunn, N., & Robinson, J. (2018) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w24209 · Cited by 8
Does Islam Practice Tolerance? Some Notes from Quranic PerspectivePreprint
Usman, A. H. (2018) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0366.v1 · Cited by 7
“prerequisite for anyone who wants a safe and peaceful [10].”
BackgroundUsing Political Cues for Attitude Formation in Post-Conflict ContextsPreprint
Garbiras-Díaz, N., García-Sánchez, M., & Matanock, A. M. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3483939 · Cited by 8
Regional Inequalities and the West-East Divide in Turkey Since 1880Preprint
Aşık, G. A., Karakoç, U., & Pamuk, Ş. (2020) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 7
Pastoral conflicts and (dis)trust: Evidence from Nigeria using an instrumental variable approachPreprint
Tuki, D. (2023) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/tgw5f · Cited by 7
A global map of amenities: Public goods, ethnic divisions and decentralization
Seidel, A. (2023) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103113 · Cited by 8
You'll never walk alone: Loneliness, religion, and politico‐economic transformation
Tubadji, A. (2023) · Politics & Policy · doi:10.1111/polp.12538 · Cited by 5
Hearn, B. A., Oxelheim, L., & Randøy, T. (2023) · Corporate Governance An International Review · doi:10.1111/corg.12547 · Cited by 6
“That measure focusses on a smaller number of tribal groups making up larger fractions of a population, where the smaller number of groups provides greater incentive for conflict (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
Doi, K., & Hiwatari, M. (2023) · Applied Research in Quality of Life · doi:10.1007/s11482-023-10212-w · Cited by 6
“It becomes maximum when two equally sized groups face each other (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
Social justice and the millennium development goals: the challenge of intersecting inequalities
Kabeer, N. (2014) · Cited by 6
Strategies to Deal with Terrorism
Frey, B. S., & Osterloh, M. (2017) · CESifo Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/cesifo/ifx013 · Cited by 6
“Such a combination of 3 Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005 find that ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explan- ation of the incidence of civil wars.”
Public infrastructure provision and ethnic favouritism: Evidence from South Africa
Walters, L., Bittencourt, M. F., & Chisadza, C. (2022) · Economics of Transition and Institutional Change · doi:10.1111/ecot.12325 · Cited by 8
Les causes des conflits civils : avancées récentes à l’aide de données désagrégées
Laville, C. (2020) · Revue française d économie · doi:10.3917/rfe.193.0123 · Cited by 6
Ethnic diversity and informal work in Ghana
Churchill, S. A., & Danquah, M. (2020) · Working Paper Series · doi:10.35188/unu-wider/2020/883-2 · Cited by 6
Piazza, J. A. (2022) · Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression · doi:10.1080/19434472.2022.2061570 · Cited by 6
“In such situations, the majority community comes to view the minority as a threat and incidents of political violence increase (Danzell et al., 2019; Horowitz, 2000; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundThe Failure of “Yugoslavia’s Last Chance”: Ante Marković and his Reformists in the 1990 Elections
Glaurdić, J., Filipović, V., & Lesschaeve, C. (2022) · Nationalities Papers · doi:10.1017/nps.2022.54 · Cited by 6
“As previously noted, both have been extensively used in the literatures on ethnic conflict and elections (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005; Esteban and Ray 2011; Esteban, Mayoral, and Ray 2012; Kapid ž i ć 2014).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialRacial diversity, child stunting and underweight: Policies design and promotion in South Africa
Koomson, I., Afoakwah, C., & Twumasi, M. A. (2024) · Journal of Policy Modeling · doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.009 · Cited by 6
Does Democracy Increase Growth More in New Countries?
Sylwester, K. (2015) · Economics and Politics · doi:10.1111/ecpo.12055 · Cited by 6
Lindquist, K. (2012) · Digital Commons at Illinois Wesleyan University (Illinois Wesleyan University) · Cited by 6
After civil war: an empirical study of ethnic intolerance in the Western Balkans
Dyrstad, K. (2010) · Cited by 6
Is there a link between globalisation and civil conflict?
Ezcurra, R., & Manotas-Hidalgo, B. (2017) · World Economy · doi:10.1111/twec.12514 · Cited by 11
The impact of social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks on civil conflicts
Giménez-Gómez, J.-M., & Zergawu, Y. Z. (2018) · Journal of Policy Modeling · doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.02.007 · Cited by 5
Ajide, K. B. (2019) · Economic Change and Restructuring · doi:10.1007/s10644-019-09245-9 · Cited by 6
Religious dominance and empathy
Braun, R. (2020) · Theory and Society · doi:10.1007/s11186-020-09378-1 · Cited by 6
Hwang, T. (2017) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108890960.012 · Cited by 12
Access to the banking sector and employment in Africa
Ouedraogo, R., Sawadogo, R., & Sawadogo, H. (2021) · The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.qref.2021.09.009 · Cited by 6
Low agricultural potential exacerbates the effect of temperature on civil conflicts
Goyette, J., & Smaoui, M. (2021) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107250 · Cited by 6
The (Mis)Use ofSDas Age Diversity Measure: Introducing the MeanSD
Meulenaere, K. D., Biemann, T., & Boone, C. (2021) · Work Aging and Retirement · doi:10.1093/workar/waab042 · Cited by 6
Sümeghy, D. (2022) · Regional Statistics · doi:10.15196/rs120106 · Cited by 6
Regime change and religious discrimination after the Arab uprisings
Klocek, J., Ha, H. J., & Sumaktoyo, N. G. (2022) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/00223433221085894 · Cited by 6
“Several studies have also linked social diversity to higher probabilities of conflict and discrimination (see Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005), while others argue that diversity can actually reduce conflict (see Dowd, 2016).”
BackgroundMigheli, M. (2018) · Review of Development Economics · doi:10.1111/rode.12567 · Cited by 8
Inequality, Polarization and Violent Conflict: The Maoist Insurgency in Nepal
Nepal, M., Bohara, A. K., & Gawande, K. (2007) · UNM’s Digital Repository (University of New Mexico) · Cited by 6
Beyond Zeroes and Ones: The Severity and Evolution of Civil ConflictPreprint
Chaudoin, S., Peskowitz, Z., & Stanton, C. (2012) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2135780 · Cited by 6
Rivalry and Revenge: Making Sense of Violence against Civilians in Conventional Civil WarsPreprint
Balcells, L. (2008) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 6
Osberghaus, D., & Baccianti, C. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · Cited by 6
The Global Financial Crisis and Development: Whither Africa?Preprint
Fosu, A. K. (2010) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 6
Stewart, F. (2011) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 6
Trade Openness, Conflict Risk and Income InequalityPreprint
Oloufade, D. K. (2012) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2135222 · Cited by 6
“This result is in line with Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) when they noted: ‘Trade may be restricted to individuals of the same ethnic group; public infrastructure may have an ethnic bias; government expenditure may favor some ethnic groups, etc.’, (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005, p. 796).”
Determinants of Constitutionally Safeguarded Judicial Review – Insights Based on a New IndicatorPreprint
Gutmann, J., Hayo, B., & Voigt, S. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1947244 · Cited by 6
Initial Factors Behind the Third Wave of DemocratizationPreprint
Papaioannou, E., & Siourounis, G. D. (2007) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 6
POLACHEK, S. W., & Sevastianova, D. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1556550 · Cited by 6
Divided We Stay Home: Social Distancing and Ethnic DiversityPreprint
Egorov, G., Сергеевич, Е. Р., Makarin, A., & Petrova, M. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3609527 · Cited by 6
Crime and Conflicts in Africa: Consequences of Corruption?Preprint
Asongu, S. A., & Kodila‐Tedika, O. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2493322 · Cited by 6
Coming Apart? Cultural Distances in the United States Over TimePreprint
Bertrand, M., & Kamenica, E. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3208730 · Cited by 6
The Causes of Ukrainian Famine Mortality, 1932-33
Markevich, A., Naumenko, N., & Qian, N. (2021) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w29089 · Cited by 6
Hate Crime Increases with Minoritized Group RankPreprint
Cikara, M., Fouka, V., & Tabellini, M. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3863364 · Cited by 6
FavoritismPreprint
Bramoullé, Y., & Goyal, S. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1484756 · Cited by 6
Refugees, Diversity and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Bertinelli, L., Cömertpay, R., & Maystadt, J.-F. (2022) · World Bank policy research working paper · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-10052 · Cited by 6
Economic Shocks and Conflict: The (Absence of?) Evidence from Commodity Price- Working Paper 274Preprint
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Persistent Income Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Institution Index and Effective VAT
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Toward economic function of elite social networks
Jiang, X.-F., Xiong, L., Bai, L., et al. (2023) · Chinese Journal of Physics · doi:10.1016/j.cjph.2023.08.003 · Cited by 5
Ethnic inequality and forced displacement
Hennicke, M., & Brück, T. (2022) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0266448 · Cited by 2
“The ethnic composition alone can spur conflict, in particular where two ethnic groups are of similar size [11, 39].”
BackgroundRohner, D. (2019) · Revue d économie du développement · doi:10.3917/edd.324.0005 · Cited by 8
Kern, F. G., Holzinger, K., & Kromrey, D. (2023) · Third World Quarterly · doi:10.1080/01436597.2023.2213636 · Cited by 5
“Relative ethnic group size is a common indicator of political significance (Buhaug, Cederman, and Rød 2008; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005), as larger groups can dominate smaller groups given differences in electoral mobilisation potential.”
BackgroundThe national question and Nigeria’s ethnic and identity crises
Monday, T. U., & Ogundiya, I. S. (2023) · African Identities · doi:10.1080/14725843.2023.2265574 · Cited by 8
“According to this opinion, violent conflicts and civil wars are uncontrollable components of nations with significant ethnic divisions (Collier & Hoeffler, 2004; Fearon & Laitin, 2003; Guelke, 2012; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
Valentowitsch, J., Kindig, M., & Burr, W. (2024) · Baltic Journal of Management · doi:10.1108/bjm-09-2023-0367 · Cited by 4
Elections, governance, and polarization in Indonesian villages
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“…(García-Guadilla & Mallen, 2018), (social) media influence (Yarchi et al., 2021), state crises (Handlin, 2018), income inequality (Winkler, 2019), and the differences in social structures in the form of ethnic, religious, or ideological (Carothers & O’Donohue, 2020; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
You’re not welcome! Violence and support for an open grazing ban policy in Kaduna, Nigeria
Tuki, D. (2024) · Environment and Security · doi:10.1177/27538796241293243 · Cited by 5
“Some studies have found that polarization peaks in a society when the population is evenly split between two cultural groups, which, in turn, increases the risk of conflict (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2003, 2005).”
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Sincere voting in an electorate with heterogeneous preferences
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“See Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005).”
GIS for Credible Identification Strategies in Economics Research
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Khadan, J., & Ruprah, I. J. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-02994-4_7 · Cited by 5
The Employment Effects of Ethnic Politics
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Gender Disparities in Post-Conflict Societies: A Cross-National Analysis
Mitra, A., & Bang, J. (2021) · Feminist Economics · doi:10.1080/13545701.2021.1901128 · Cited by 5
“…11 We also replicate our results using the ethnic polarization index, which captures the conflict potential of ethnic divisions (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005), and the geographic variation in the PDSI within a country to capture regional disparities in income shocks.”
ResultEthnolinguistic diversity, quality of local public institutions, and firm-level innovation
Focacci, C. N., Kovač, M., & Spruk, R. (2023) · International Review of Law and Economics · doi:10.1016/j.irle.2023.106155 · Cited by 5
On the measurement of electoral volatility
Sarkar, S., & Dash, B. B. (2023) · Mathematical Social Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2023.10.005 · Cited by 5
Refugees and Intrastate Armed Conflict : A Contagion Process Approach
Forsberg, E. (2009) · KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) · Cited by 5
Predicting the intensity and location of violence in war
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Metadata
- Authors
- Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal-Querol, M.
- Affiliations
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
- The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433.
- ORCID
- Montalvo, José G
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2005-06-01
- Volume
- 95
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 796-816
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1975264861
- Semantic Scholar
- d34e25710e0f59c77127215c237c4e3a5a19820b
- Cited by
- 1,386
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 33 · 2025: 63 · 2024: 64 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 97 · 2021: 76 · 2020: 89 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 77 · 2017: 61 · 2016: 70 · 2015: 90 · 2014: 79 · 2013: 80 · 2012: 61
- FWCI
- 145.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Development › Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Keywords
- ethnic fractionalization, ethnic conflict, civil war, ethnic distance, ethnic diversity, economic growth, political instability, corruption, investment, ethnic classification
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