The DOI matches its Crossref record; 40 of the 41 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 30 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars
Abstract
This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
The paper argues that ethnic fractionalization is the wrong measure for capturing potential conflict; an ethnic polarization index (Q) better predicts civil war incidence. Using logit regressions on 138 countries from 1960–99, ethnic polarization is positive and significant while ethnic fractionalization is not.
Key findings
- Ethnic fractionalization (ETHFRAC) has no statistically significant effect on civil war incidence (coefficient 1.19, z=1.89 in column 1), consistent with Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoeffler (1998).
- Ethnic polarization (ETHPOL) has a positive and statistically significant effect: coefficient 2.37 (z=2.97) alone, and 2.28 (z=2.23) when ETHFRAC is included; ETHFRAC remains insignificant (0.17, z=0.19).
- The effect is economically important: moving polarization from the average (0.51) to Guinea’s level (0.84) almost doubles the probability of conflict; a one-standard-deviation increase (0.24) raises the probability by 67%.
- Robustness checks support ethnic polarization across alternative civil-war definitions (PRIO1000, PRIO25, Doyle–Sambanis, Fearon–Laitin), alternative data sources (Alesina et al., Atlas Narodov Mira), regional dummies, and cross-section regressions; religious polarization is less robust and depends on specification.
Methods
- Logit regressions for civil war incidence using a panel of 138 countries over 1960–99, divided into five-year periods; dependent variable is PRIOCW (PRIO intermediate/high-intensity civil war), with robustness using PRIO1000, PRIO25, DSCW, and FLCW definitions.
- Core explanatory variables: log real GDP per capita at period start (LGDPC), log population (LPOP), primary exports (PRIMEXP), mountains (MOUNTAINS), noncontiguous state (NONCONT), and democracy (DEMOCRACY); ethnic and religious fractionalization/polarization indices are added.
- Ethnic heterogeneity data primarily from the World Christian Encyclopedia; religious data from L’Etat des Religions dans le Monde and The Statesman’s Yearbook; robustness uses Alesina et al. (2003) and Atlas Narodov Mira data.
Limitations
- The paper states no formal limitations section. It notes that religious polarization’s statistical relevance depends on the particular specification, and that when Sub-Saharan African countries are eliminated and ethnic fractionalization is included, ethnic polarization becomes insignificant (coefficient 1.98, z=1.32).
- The paper also reports that ethnic polarization is only marginally significant using the Fearon and Laitin civil-war definition (coefficient 1.95, z=1.97).
- Evident from the text: the analysis is observational cross-country panel logit, so causal interpretation is limited; results may depend on group classification and data source, though the paper argues robustness across sources.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
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Verification
Claims the paper makes
3 of 30 cited sources checked · 2 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“In general the correlation between the index of fractionalization obtained using these alternative data sources is very high (over 0.8).”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2000)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Alesina et al (2003) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 2.2 reports a correlation of 0.88 between the paper’s linguistic index and the Soviet index, supporting one instance of the claim. But the corresponding ethnic-index correlation is 0.76, and the paper says the religious index has much lower correlations, so it does not support the generalization that correlations exceed 0.8. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Not matched
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“The correlation with the index of Alesina et al. (2003) is 0.83.”
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. (2003) source
The Introduction (page unavailable) says Alesina et al. construct new fractionalization indices, so the citation correctly identifies the source of an index. The 0.83 correlation is presented as the citing paper’s comparison, not as a result attributed to Alesina et al. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
“In the empirical section we show that the index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant explanatory variable for the incidence of civil wars.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satis es the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The index of ethnic fractionalization calculated with our data has a correlation of 0.86 with the index obtained using the Atlas Nadorov Mira (ELF).”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows that for low levels of fractionalization the correlation between ethnic fractionalization 20 and polarization is positive and high.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When we move from two groups to three groups the relationship between FRAC and Q breaks down.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 4 shows that religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is not statistically signi cant.”
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In column 7 we include together the index of ethnic polarization and religious polarization. Only the estimated coe¢ cient of the rst one is statistically signi cant.”
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However only three out of the ten countries with the highest level of religious fractionalization su/ered a civil war.”
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- Probably not a substantial claim. 19
- It may state two separate claims as one. 21
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative e/ect on growth.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine 1997 source
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. 2003 source
The Introduction says the paper broadly confirms earlier findings of a negative effect of ethnic fragmentation on growth. Section 3 reports an inverse relationship between ethnic fractionalization and per-capita growth, while noting that the association vanishes after controlling for potential mediating variables. Page numbers were not supplied. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Not matchedcites La Porta et al. 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the fractionalization index the size of each group has no e/ect on the weight of the probabilities of two individuals belonging to di/erent groups whereas in the Q index these probabilities are weighted by the relative size of each group.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless we should notice that only in 3,6% of the countries the number of groups is equal to two.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 3 checks the relative strength of the index of ethnic polarization versus fractionalization and shows that the coe¢ cient on ethnic fractionalization is not signi cantly di/erent from zero while the one on polarization is positive and signi cant.”
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows a similar pattern: for low levels of religious fractionalization the correlation with polarization is positive. However for intermediate and high levels of religious fractionalization the correlation is zero.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index is precisely the index DP (1 , 4) 13 .”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This implies a very high degree of polarization (0.96), and a low level of fractionalization (0.52).”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedSingle caseTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Imagine now that we increase the size of one group by epsilon and decrease the size of another group by the same amount. Now the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of fractionalization is smaller than its relative size, c i < π i , and the reverse happens for the smallest group.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is easy to show that the discrete Gini index (DG) calculated using a discrete metric is simply the index of fractionalization”
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the index of polarization the result is the opposite: the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of polarization is larger than its relative size, ˜ c i > π i , and the reverse happens to the smallest group.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We showed in the previous section that the index of fractionalization can be interpreted as a Gini index with a discrete metric (belong/do not belong to the group) instead of an Euclidean income distance.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However for the medium range the correlation is zero and for high levels of fractionalization the correlation with polarization is negative.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 6 shows the basic logit regressions using both religious fractionalization and religious polarization. The coe¢ cient of the index of religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is marginally insigni cant while the index of religious polarization (RELPOL) is statistically signi cant.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In both cases the degree of religious fractionalization is low.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index captures the idea of a large majority versus a large minority as the worst possible situation since the index in this case is close to the maximum.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“The Q index can be interpreted as the polarization measure of Esteban and Ray (1994) with a discrete metric.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Esteban and Ray (1994) source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Columns 1 and 2 show that ethnic polarization is statistically signi cant in the presence of regional dummies 31 , with and without the inclusion of ethnic fractionalization”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELPOL | | | | | 0.73 (1.00) | 3.90 (1.97) | 0.44 (0.65) | 3.29 (1.59) |”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✗ Asserted: fails✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHPOL | | 2.37 (2.97) | 2.28 (2.23) | | | | 2.27 (2.84) | 2.09 (2.03) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 2.31 (2.76) | 1.95 (1.97) | 2.33 (2.16) | 2.05 (2.41) | 2.31 (2.23) | 2.32 (2.74) | 2.11 (2.02) | 2.35 (2.12) | 2.13 (2.48) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 34 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 3.35 (2.46) | 3.42 (2.48) | 3.26 (2.37) | 3.53 (2.44) | 2.95 (2.15) | 3.27 (2.26) |”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe quote only partly states this claim.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHFRAC | 1.19 (1.89) | | 0.17 (0.19) | | | | | 0.04 (0.05) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHFRAC | -0.52 (0.65) | 0.01 (0.01) | 0.57 (0.62) | -0.06 (0.09) | 0.18 (0.20) | -0.73 (0.92) | -0.14 (0.15) | 0.57 (0.63) | -0.17 (0.23) |”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✗ Asserted: fails✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“opposite to what happens with the coe¢ cient of the index of fractionalization calculated using the same source (estimated coe¢ cient=1.27 and z=1.67).”
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When ethnic dominance is included with the Q index, column 3, its coe¢ cient is not signi cant while ethnic polarization continues being a signi cant explanatory variable on the probability of civil wars.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELFRAC | | | | 0.37 (0.36) | | -4.97 (1.65) | | -4.45 (1.39) |”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✗ Asserted: fails✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Collier (2001) also emphasizes that the relationship between ethnic diversity and the risk of violent con icts is not monotonic. Highly heterogeneous societies have even a lower probability of civil wars than homogeneous societies. The highest risk is associated with the middle range of ethnic diversity. 8”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Collier (2001) source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Horowitz (1985), which is the seminal reference on the issue of ethnic groups in con ict, argues that the relationship between ethnic diversity and civil wars is not monotonic: there is less violence in highly homogeneous and highly heterogeneous societies, and more con icts in societies where a large ethnic minority faces an ethnic majority.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Horowitz (1985)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Finally Fearon and Laitin (2003) indicate that a large population implies di¢ culties in controlling what goes on at the local level and increases the number of potential rebels that can be recruited by the insurgents.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However their theoretical arguments, as they recognize explicitly, are based on polarized societies 4 not on highly fractionalized cases.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine (1997) source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoe› er (2002) nd that neither ethnic fractionalization nor religious fractionalization have any statistically signi cant e/ect on the probability of civil wars.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) consider that the size of the population is an additional proxy for the bene ts of a rebellion since it measures potential labor income taxation.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) point out that the existence of natural resources provide an opportunity for rebellion since these resources can be used to nance the war and increases the payo/ if victory is achieved.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
“In this paper we have shown that the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
In the paper
“Notice also that Fearon (2003) points out that the index of fractionalization, being not sensitive to discontinuities, cannot capture important di/erences in ethnic structures. In particular the idea of majority rule is not well re ected by the index of fractionalization.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We argued before that a high number of di/erent groups increases the coordination problems and, therefore, given a level of polarization, the probability of civil wars may be smaller.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The absolute z-statistics in parenthesis are calculated using standard errors adjusted for clustering.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“In addition Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) con rm that ethnolinguistic fractionalization has a direct negative e/ect on growth, probably due to its impact on the transmission of ideas.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper relies on this without support.
Civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.
“There is no doubt that civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Figure 3's data source is reversed
MinorThe text says Figure 3 uses Alesina et al.'s data, but the figure caption identifies the Atlas Nadorov Mira as its source.
“Figure 3 shows the relationship between the index of ethnic fractionalization and ethnic polarization constructed using the data of Alesina et al. (2003).”
“Figure 3: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Atlas Nadorov Mira.”
Figure 4's data source is reversed
MinorThe text says Figure 4 uses Atlas Nadorov Mira data, but its caption identifies Alesina et al. as the source.
“Figure 4 shows ethnic fractionalization and polarization calculated using the data from the Atlas Nadorov Mira, the third basic source of data on ethnic diversity.”
“Figure 4: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Alesina et al. (2003).”
Citations
Cites
Mauro, P. (1995) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/2946696 · Cited by 8,820
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
FEARON, J. D., & LAITIN, D. D. (2003) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055403000534 · Cited by 7,366
(2012) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.102.7.i · Cited by 7,275
Greed and grievance in civil war
Collier, P. D. (2004) · Oxford Economic Papers · doi:10.1093/oep/gpf064 · Cited by 6,295
La Porta, R. (1999) · Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization · doi:10.1093/jleo/15.1.222 · Cited by 5,699
Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions
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“This result is consistent with Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoeffler (1998).”
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The Volatility Curse: Revisiting the Paradox of PlentyPreprint
van der Ploeg, F., & Poelhekke, S. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1392136 · Cited by 33
The long-term educational cost of war: evidence from landmine contamination in Cambodia
Merrouche, O. (2006) · Working paper series - Institute for Fiscal Studies/Working papers · doi:10.1920/wp.ifs.2006.0611 · Cited by 34
Regional inequalities and the West–East divide in Turkey since 1913
Aşık, G. A., Karakoç, U., & Pamuk, Ş. (2023) · The Economic History Review · doi:10.1111/ehr.13245 · Cited by 33
The economics of secession: a review of legal, theoretical, and empirical aspects
Madiès, T., Rota‐Graziosi, G., Tranchant, J.-P., et al. (2018) · Zeitschrift für schweizerische Statistik und Volkswirtschaft/Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik/Swiss journal of economics and statistics · doi:10.1186/s41937-017-0015-6 · Cited by 33
Does violence against civilians depress voter turnout? Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina
Alacevich, C., & Zejcirovic, D. (2020) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2020.04.006 · Cited by 41
Happy but Unequal: Differences in Subjective Well-Being across Individuals and Space in Colombia
Burger, M., Hendriks, M., & Ianchovichina, E. (2021) · Applied Research in Quality of Life · doi:10.1007/s11482-021-09954-2 · Cited by 38
Arezki, R., & Brückner, M. (2011) · Journal of International Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.11.001 · Cited by 33
Reputation, group structure and social tensions
Rohner, D. (2010) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.10.008 · Cited by 31
Grievances and Opportunities: Religious Violence across Political Regimes
Muchlinski, D. (2014) · Politics and Religion · doi:10.1017/s1755048314000534 · Cited by 32
Resource Curse and Power Balance: Evidence from Iran
Bjorvatn, K., Farzanegan, M. R., & SCHNEIDER, F. G. (2013) · Review of Middle East Economics and Finance · doi:10.1515/rmeef-2012-0029 · Cited by 33
Benefit Sharing Among Local Resource Users: The Role of Property Rights
Torpey-Saboe, N., Andersson, K. P., Mwangi, E., Persha, L., Salk, C. F., & Wright, G. D. (2015) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.03.005 · Cited by 32
Jha, S. (2018) · Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/epolic/eiy009 · Cited by 32
Democratic Creative Destruction? The Effect of a Changing Media Landscape on Democracy
Nielsen, R. K., & Fletcher, R. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108890960.008 · Cited by 35
Ethnic Favoritism: Micro Evidence from GuineaPreprint
Kudamatsu, M. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1440303 · Cited by 34
The Economic Effects of Violent Conflict: Evidence from Asset Market ReactionsPreprint
Guidolin, M., & Ferrara, E. L. (2005) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.825889 · Cited by 32
Economic Effects of Domestic and Neighbouring Countries’ Cultural DiversityPreprint
Gören, E. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2255492 · Cited by 32
“5One argument for treating cultural distance across groups as constant and equal was put forward by Garcia-Montalvo & Reynal-Querol (2005b), who argued that ”[...] the dynamics of hand, the widely used measure of ethnic fractionalisation is highly sensitive to the number of groups, and on the other…”
InfluentialIncome growth, ethnic polarization, and political risk: Evidence from international oil price shocks
Brüeckner, M., & Gradstein, M. (2014) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2014.05.005 · Cited by 31
Cinyabuguma, M. M., & Putterman, L. G. (2010) · Journal of African Economies · doi:10.1093/jae/ejq040 · Cited by 31
“A possible explanation for the apparent discrepancy can be found in recent contributions, including Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005), which suggest that the true global relationship between ethnic heterogeneity and economic growth is U-shaped because having a few large, competing ethnic groups may…”
ResultRay, D., & Bell, C. (2008) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_292-2 · Cited by 33
Anyanwu, J. C. (2014) · African Development Review · doi:10.1111/1467-8268.12077 · Cited by 32
“From the mid2000s onwards, Central and South Asia has been the deadliest region.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialPolitical economy of dynamic resource wars
van der Ploeg, F. (2017) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2017.09.002 · Cited by 30
Ethnic diversity and transport poverty
Churchill, S. A. (2020) · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/j.tra.2020.07.012 · Cited by 36
Modeling Explosive Opinion Depolarization in Interdependent Topics
Ojer, J., Starnini, M., & Pastor‐Satorras, R. (2023) · Physical Review Letters · doi:10.1103/physrevlett.130.207401 · Cited by 34
McDoom, O. S., & Gisselquist, R. M. (2015) · Social Indicators Research · doi:10.1007/s11205-015-1145-9 · Cited by 32
“1999; Baldwin and Huber 2010), the absence of violent conflict (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005), democratic transition (Przeworski et al.”
BackgroundInfluentialFedderke, J., Luiz, J. M., & de Kadt, R. (2007) · Social Indicators Research · doi:10.1007/s11205-007-9090-x · Cited by 31
“More recent measures include Alesina et al. (2003), Fearon (2003), Roeder (2001) and Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) .”
BackgroundMethodGupte, J., Justino, P., & Tranchant, J.-P. (2014) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002714547886 · Cited by 32
Explaining Violent Intra-Ethnic Conflict
Warren, T. C., & Troy, K. K. (2014) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002713515400 · Cited by 30
Duca, J. V., & Saving, J. L. (2017) · Journal of Macroeconomics · doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.09.002 · Cited by 32
Terms of Trade and Growth of Resource Economies: A Tale of Two CountriesPreprint
Fosu, A. K. (2015) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.13140/rg.2.1.4368.3689 · Cited by 30
Isaacs, M. (2016) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414016655534 · Cited by 30
B, F. D. A., Turati, R., Valette, J., & Vasilakis, C. (2019) · Journal of Economic Geography · doi:10.1093/jeg/lbz016 · Cited by 77
“Following Ottaviano and Peri (2006), Ager and Brückner (2013), Suedekum et al.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialUnbundling the effect of political instability on income redistribution
Vu, T. V. (2022) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102189 · Cited by 29
Testa, C. (2012) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.04.005 · Cited by 29
BUTTER, GUNS AND ICE‐CREAM THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA
Caruso, R. (2010) · Defence and Peace Economics · doi:10.1080/10242690903568975 · Cited by 29
“Indexes of ethnic fractionalization and polarization are from Montalvo and Reynal‐Queirol ( 2005 ).”
BackgroundInequality and Fractionalization
Casey, G. P., & Owen, A. L. (2013) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.10.007 · Cited by 32
From Side Show to Centre Stage: Civil Conflict after the Cold War
Lacina, B. (2004) · Security Dialogue · doi:10.1177/0967010604044976 · Cited by 29
Bureaucratic Capacity and Class Voting: Evidence from across the World and the United States
Kasara, K., & Suryanarayan, P. (2019) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/707793 · Cited by 28
Ethnic Conflict and the Informational Dividend of Democracy
Laurent‐Lucchetti, J., Rohner, D., & Thoenig, M. (2023) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvad031 · Cited by 36
ETHNIC DIVERSITY AND THE SPREAD OF CIVIL WAR
Novta, N. (2016) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1111/jeea.12171 · Cited by 29
Polarization, foreign military intervention, and civil conflict
Abu‐Bader, S., & Ianchovichina, E. (2018) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.06.006 · Cited by 31
Explaining the number of rebel groups in civil wars
Walter, B. F. (2018) · International Interactions · doi:10.1080/03050629.2019.1554573 · Cited by 28
Segregation, Polarization, and Ethnic Conflict
Klašnja, M., & Novta, N. (2014) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002714550084 · Cited by 31
“Most countries have country-level polarization below 0.6 in cross-national data (e.g., Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005).15 In our empirical results, 0.7 or 0.8 is the threshold at which the effect of segregation on conflict switches from negative to positive.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialBasedau, M., & Juan, A. D. (2008) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1119171 · Cited by 28
Natural Resource Distribution and Multiple Forms of Civil WarPreprint
Morelli, M., & Rohner, D. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1662434 · Cited by 28
“The empirical literature on con ict has found that the existence of natural resources and of ethnic divisions make a country more prone to war (see e.g., Collier and Hoe er, 2004; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
What is European Integration Really About? A Political Guide for Economists
Spolaore, E. (2013) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w19122 · Cited by 28
Collective Action in Diverse Sierra Leone Communities
Glennerster, R., Miguel, E. A., & Rothenberg, A. D. (2010) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w16196 · Cited by 29
Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany
Albarosa, E., & Elsner, B. (2023) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106228 · Cited by 34
Is Ethnic Diversity Good for the Environment? A Cross-Country Analysis
Das, J., & Dirienzo, C. E. (2009) · The Journal of Environment & Development · doi:10.1177/1070496509355274 · Cited by 27
“See for example, Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005), Fearon (2003), and Roeder (2001).”
BackgroundGeography, institutions and development: a review of the long-run impacts of climate change
Castells‐Quintana, D., López–Uribe, M. D. P., & McDermott, T. K. J. (2016) · Climate and Development · doi:10.1080/17565529.2016.1167665 · Cited by 27
“…a significant determinant of conflict; in societies where a large ethnic minority faces an ethnic majority severe conflict is more likely to arise (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).25 Thus, where climate change is expected to reinforce existing inequalities, this could have knock-on effects for…”
BackgroundEconomic Shocks, Civil War & Ethnicity
Janus, T., & Riera‐Crichton, D. (2013) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.01.003 · Cited by 28
When Do Religious Leaders Support Faith-Based Violence? Evidence from a Survey Poll in South Sudan
Basedau, M., & Koos, C. (2015) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1065912915603128 · Cited by 27
Migration, Trade and IncomePreprint
Ortega, F., & Peri, G. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2250323 · Cited by 27
Melting pot or salad bowl: the formation of heterogeneous communities
Reich, B., & Advani, A. (2015) · doi:10.1920/wp.ifs.2015.1530 · Cited by 28
“1Easterly and Levine (1997), Alesina et al. (1999), Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005), Ashraf and Galor (2013), and Rasul and Rogger (2015), amongst others.”
BackgroundThe role of rural producer organizations for agricultural service provision in fragile states
Ragasa, C., & Golan, J. (2014) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12105 · Cited by 27
“Conflict is likely to erode trust and can lead to greater transaction costs to cooperation, especially when victims and perpetrators originate from the same communities or regions, and so may cause new acts of violence (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005; Hellin, Lundy, and Meijer 2007).”
Untouchability, homicides and water access
Bros, C., & Couttenier, M. (2015) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2014.12.001 · Cited by 27
The Language of Economic Growth:A New Measure of Linguistic Heterogeneity
Liu, A. H., & Pizzi, E. (2016) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123416000260 · Cited by 31
Ezcurra, R. (2018) · Defence and Peace Economics · doi:10.1080/10242694.2018.1446621 · Cited by 27
“Specifically, various empirical studies show that the degree of ethnic polarization is more relevant in this context than the level of ethnic fractionalization (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005; Esteban, Mayoral, and Ray 2012).”
BackgroundMethodImmigration and Political Instability
Gebremedhin, T. A., & Mavisakalyan, A. (2013) · Kyklos · doi:10.1111/kykl.12024 · Cited by 26
Measuring Social Polarization with Ordinal and Categorical Data
Permanyer, I., & D’Ambrosio, C. (2013) · Journal of Public Economic Theory · doi:10.1111/jpet.12093 · Cited by 27
Vüllers, J., Pfeiffer, B., & Basedau, M. (2015) · International Interactions · doi:10.1080/03050629.2015.1048855 · Cited by 26
Climate Change and Cross-State Islamist Terrorism in Nigeria
Price, G. N., & Elu, J. U. (2017) · Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy · doi:10.1515/peps-2016-0047 · Cited by 28
“…of zero Islamic terrorism events appeals to the evidence and theory that ethnic/religious heterogeneity and polarization can be a driver of violent conflict and terrorism (Caselli & Coleman, 2013; Danzell, Yeh & Pfannenstiel, 2016; Esteban, Mayoral & Ray, 2012; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundThe Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries
Compaoré, A., Mlachila, M., Ouedraogo, R., & Sourouema, W. S. (2020) · IMF Working Paper · doi:10.5089/9781513530055.001 · Cited by 26
Civil Conflict, Democratization, and Growth: Violent Democratization as Critical Juncture
Cervellati, M., & Sunde, U. (2014) · Scandinavian Journal of Economics · doi:10.1111/sjoe.12054 · Cited by 27
The Privatization of Public Services in American Cities
Trounstine, J. L. (2015) · Social Science History · doi:10.1017/ssh.2015.61 · Cited by 25
Local Religious Institutions and the Impact of Interethnic Inequality on Conflict
Cao, X., Duan, H., Liu, C., & Wei, Y. (2018) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqy035 · Cited by 26
Nigerian Governance Challenge: Exploring the Role of Natural Resource Rents
Fagbemi, F., & Adeoye, O. G. (2020) · Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies · doi:10.1177/0974910120919001 · Cited by 27
“…to this assertion, since Nigeria is a resource-rich country with highly ethnical fractionalized groups, increased resource rents have put the country at higher risk of political instability, poor governance, and weak public institutions over the years (Henri, 2019; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundThe Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries
Ouedraogo, R., Mlachila, M., Sourouema, W. S., & Compaoré, A. (2020) · World Economy · doi:10.1111/twec.13218 · Cited by 30
Provoking local ethnic violence – A global study on ethnic polarization and terrorist targeting
Python, A., Brandsch, J., & Tskhay, A. (2017) · Political Geography · doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.02.001 · Cited by 29
Temperature, maize yield, and civil conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa
Jun, T. (2017) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1941-0 · Cited by 26
“Therefore, civil conflict incidence is the union of civil conflict onset and duration (Elbadawi and Sambanis 2002; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005).”
BackgroundObstacle to Peace? Ethnic Geography and Effectiveness of Peacekeeping
Salvatore, J. D. (2018) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123418000200 · Cited by 29
“15 Costalli and Moro 2012; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005.”
BackgroundInfluentialComparative Media Regulation in the United States and Europe
Fukuyama, F., & Grotto, A. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108890960.010 · Cited by 28
REsCape: an Agent-Based Framework for Modeling Resources, Ethnicity, and Conflict
Bhavnani, R., Miodownik, D., & Nart, J. (2013) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 25
Swee, E. L. (2014) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2015.05.007 · Cited by 24
Taking care of your own: ethnic and religious heterogeneity and income inequality
Dincer, O. C., & Lambert, P. J. (2012) · Journal of Economic Studies · doi:10.1108/01443581211245883 · Cited by 25
“Figure 3 is taken from of Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) and shows FI and PI as functions of the number of groups (assumed of equal size).”
BackgroundInfluentialThe Long-run Effects of Agricultural Productivity on Conflict, 1400-1900
Iyigun, M. F., Nunn, N., & Qian, N. (2017) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w24066 · Cited by 24
Measuring ethnic stratification and its effect on trust in Africa
Hodler, R., Srisuma, S., Vesperoni, A., & Zurlinden, N. (2020) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102475 · Cited by 25
“…Among other diversity measures, the univariate polarization indices in Esteban and Ray (1994), Duclos et al. (2004), and Reynal-Querol and Montalvo (2005) are related to our model but present a crucial difference: while we assume that the alienation between two individuals is only…”
Mueller, H., Rohner, D., & Schönholzer, D. (2021) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1093/ej/ueab045 · Cited by 24
Inequality between identity groups and social unrest
Houle, C., Ruck, D. J., Bentley, R. A., & Gavrilets, S. (2022) · Journal of The Royal Society Interface · doi:10.1098/rsif.2021.0725 · Cited by 29
“Esteban & Ray [57] showed how the equilibrium contributions to conflict depend on the indices of inequality, fractionalization and polarization [60] in the society.”
BackgroundEthnic Diversity and Informal Work in Ghana
Churchill, S. A., & Danquah, M. (2022) · The Journal of Development Studies · doi:10.1080/00220388.2022.2061852 · Cited by 24
“Where nij is as defined previously, we calculate indices of ethnic polarization using the approach in Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005), which is as follows: ETHNIC POLARIZATION ¼ 1 Xi i¼1 0:5 nij 0:5 2 nij The index of ethnic polarization captures the conflict dimension of ethnic diversity and…”
MethodQuantifying the influence of climate variability on armed conflict in Africa, 2000-2015
Wang, Q., Hao, M., Helman, D., Ding, F., Jiang, D., Xie, X., Chen, S., & Ma, T. (2023) · Environment, Development and Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s10668-022-02436-x · Cited by 24
Who does better for the economy? Presidents versus parliamentary democracies
McManus, R., & Özkan, F. G. (2018) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-018-0552-2 · Cited by 24
Horizontal Inequality and Data Challenges
Canelas, C., & Gisselquist, R. M. (2018) · Social Indicators Research · doi:10.1007/s11205-018-1932-1 · Cited by 25
“Contributors were also asked to calculate and consider in their initial analyses two related measures of ‘cross-cuttingness’ from the political science literature (Rae and Taylor 1970; Selway 2011),5 along with several common indicators of ethnic diversity (the ethnic fractionization index (Taylor and Hudson 1972) and…”
BackgroundReligious diversity and entrepreneurship in transition: lessons for policymakers
Nikolova, E., & Simroth, D. (2015) · IZA Journal of European Labor Studies · doi:10.1186/s40174-014-0028-4 · Cited by 50
“We also ran specifications in which religious diversity is measured by religious polarization, which is maximized when there are two groups of equal size.11 The literature has argued that cultural polarization is more relevant for outcomes such as civil war (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005).”
MethodRainfall Inequality, Political Power, and Ethnic Conflict in AfricaPreprint
Guariso, A., & Rogall, T. (2017) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2961694 · Cited by 25
The Political-Economic Causes of the Soviet Great Famine, 1932–33Preprint
Markevich, A., Naumenko, N., & Qian, N. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3894621 · Cited by 24
Ivļevs, A. (2016) · International Journal of Manpower · doi:10.1108/ijm-08-2015-0117 · Cited by 23
“…higher infant mortality, higher extent of corruption and higher incidence of civil conflicts (Alesina et al., 2003; Alesina and La Ferrara, 2005; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005; Miguel and Gugerty, 2005), while other contributions show that the role of ethnic fractionalisation positive…”
BackgroundExternal Intervention, Identity, and Civil War
Sambanis, N., Skaperdas, S., & Wohlforth, W. (2020) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414020912279 · Cited by 24
Ethnicity and Violence During Democratic Transitions: Evidence from South Africa
Amodio, F., & Chiovelli, G. (2017) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvx034 · Cited by 25
Subjective Well‐Being and Peaceful Uprisings
Witte, C., Burger, M., & Ianchovichina, E. (2020) · Kyklos · doi:10.1111/kykl.12219 · Cited by 24
“These studies focus on the effect of grievances, proxied by objective indicators including GDP growth and ethnic tensions, on armed conflict and find mixed results (Buhaug, Cederman & Gleditisch, 2014; Ciccone, 2011; Collier & Hoeffler, 2004; Collier, Hoeffler & Rohner, 2009; Esteban & Ray, 2008; Fearon & Laitin, 2003…”
Adult mortality and urbanization: Examination of a weak connection in sub-Saharan Africa
Brüeckner, M. (2019) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.05.019 · Cited by 23
CEO political liberalism, stakeholders, and firms’ support for LGBT employees
Weng, D. H., Chuang, Y., Zhang, C., & Church, R. L. (2022) · The Leadership Quarterly · doi:10.1016/j.leaqua.2022.101645 · Cited by 24
Social Norms in the Aftermath of Ethnic Violence
Whitt, S. (2012) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002712459714 · Cited by 22
“…most likely where ethnic divisions become highly salient and polarizing and cooperative norms and institutions are either absent or have eroded (Sambanis 2001; Elbadawi and Sambanis 2002; Posner 2004; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005; Hegre and Sambanis 2006; Wood 2008; Bhavnani and Miodownik 2009).”
BackgroundThe Maoist Insurgency in Nepal
Upreti, B. C. (2006) · South Asian Survey · doi:10.1177/097152310501300103 · Cited by 23
Marquardt, K. L., & Herrera, Y. M. (2015) · Social Science Quarterly · doi:10.1111/ssqu.12187 · Cited by 23
Climate-Induced International Migration and Conflicts
Cattaneo, C., & Bosetti, V. (2016) · CESifo Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/cesifo/ifx010 · Cited by 23
Csata, Z., Hlatky, R., & Liu, A. H. (2020) · East European Politics · doi:10.1080/21599165.2020.1843439 · Cited by 26
“Unfortunately, when measuring diversity, we are not able to use standard measures of heterogeneity – e.g. fractionalisation (Alesina et al. 2003; Liu 2015) or polarisation (Csata 2020; Garcia-Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005).”
MethodThe conceptualization and measurement of social polarization
Permanyer, I. (2010) · The Journal of Economic Inequality · doi:10.1007/s10888-010-9143-2 · Cited by 24
“In order to explore the existing relationship between the occurrence of conflict and polarization levels we will replicate some of the regressions carried out in the paper of Montalvo and Reynal-Querol [11] but introducing our new polarization indices.”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialReligious Diversity: Helping or Hindering Entrepreneurs in Transition Countries?Preprint
Nikolova, E., & Simroth, D. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2272615 · Cited by 23
A Comparison of polarization measuresPreprint
Esteban, J. M., & Ray, D. (2007) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 26
The Ethnicity Distraction ? Political Credibility And Partisan Preferences In Africa
Keefer, P. E. (2010) · The World Bank Open Knowledge Repository (World Bank) · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-5236 · Cited by 24
Metadata
- Authors
- Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal-Querol, M.
- Affiliations
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
- The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433.
- ORCID
- Montalvo, José G
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2005-06-01
- Volume
- 95
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 796-816
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1975264861
- Semantic Scholar
- d34e25710e0f59c77127215c237c4e3a5a19820b
- Cited by
- 1,386
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 33 · 2025: 63 · 2024: 64 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 97 · 2021: 76 · 2020: 89 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 77 · 2017: 61 · 2016: 70 · 2015: 90 · 2014: 79 · 2013: 80 · 2012: 61
- FWCI
- 145.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Development › Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Keywords
- ethnic fractionalization, ethnic conflict, civil war, ethnic distance, ethnic diversity, economic growth, political instability, corruption, investment, ethnic classification
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-13, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-13 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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