The DOI matches its Crossref record; 40 of the 41 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 30 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars
Abstract
This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
The paper argues that ethnic fractionalization is the wrong measure for capturing potential conflict; an ethnic polarization index (Q) better predicts civil war incidence. Using logit regressions on 138 countries from 1960–99, ethnic polarization is positive and significant while ethnic fractionalization is not.
Key findings
- Ethnic fractionalization (ETHFRAC) has no statistically significant effect on civil war incidence (coefficient 1.19, z=1.89 in column 1), consistent with Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoeffler (1998).
- Ethnic polarization (ETHPOL) has a positive and statistically significant effect: coefficient 2.37 (z=2.97) alone, and 2.28 (z=2.23) when ETHFRAC is included; ETHFRAC remains insignificant (0.17, z=0.19).
- The effect is economically important: moving polarization from the average (0.51) to Guinea’s level (0.84) almost doubles the probability of conflict; a one-standard-deviation increase (0.24) raises the probability by 67%.
- Robustness checks support ethnic polarization across alternative civil-war definitions (PRIO1000, PRIO25, Doyle–Sambanis, Fearon–Laitin), alternative data sources (Alesina et al., Atlas Narodov Mira), regional dummies, and cross-section regressions; religious polarization is less robust and depends on specification.
Methods
- Logit regressions for civil war incidence using a panel of 138 countries over 1960–99, divided into five-year periods; dependent variable is PRIOCW (PRIO intermediate/high-intensity civil war), with robustness using PRIO1000, PRIO25, DSCW, and FLCW definitions.
- Core explanatory variables: log real GDP per capita at period start (LGDPC), log population (LPOP), primary exports (PRIMEXP), mountains (MOUNTAINS), noncontiguous state (NONCONT), and democracy (DEMOCRACY); ethnic and religious fractionalization/polarization indices are added.
- Ethnic heterogeneity data primarily from the World Christian Encyclopedia; religious data from L’Etat des Religions dans le Monde and The Statesman’s Yearbook; robustness uses Alesina et al. (2003) and Atlas Narodov Mira data.
Limitations
- The paper states no formal limitations section. It notes that religious polarization’s statistical relevance depends on the particular specification, and that when Sub-Saharan African countries are eliminated and ethnic fractionalization is included, ethnic polarization becomes insignificant (coefficient 1.98, z=1.32).
- The paper also reports that ethnic polarization is only marginally significant using the Fearon and Laitin civil-war definition (coefficient 1.95, z=1.97).
- Evident from the text: the analysis is observational cross-country panel logit, so causal interpretation is limited; results may depend on group classification and data source, though the paper argues robustness across sources.
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Claims the paper makes
50 Own result · 19 No basis given · 16 Own interpretation · 11 No full text of the sources · 6 Sources not found · 4 Not checked yet · 4 Own method · 1 Supported · 1 Supported so far · 1 Partly supported · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“In general the correlation between the index of fractionalization obtained using these alternative data sources is very high (over 0.8).”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2000)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Alesina et al (2003) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 2.2 reports a correlation of 0.88 between the paper’s linguistic index and the Soviet index, supporting one instance of the claim. But the corresponding ethnic-index correlation is 0.76, and the paper says the religious index has much lower correlations, so it does not support the generalization that correlations exceed 0.8. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- Not matched
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“The correlation with the index of Alesina et al. (2003) is 0.83.”
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. (2003) source
The Introduction (page unavailable) says Alesina et al. construct new fractionalization indices, so the citation correctly identifies the source of an index. The 0.83 correlation is presented as the citing paper’s comparison, not as a result attributed to Alesina et al. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
“In the empirical section we show that the index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant explanatory variable for the incidence of civil wars.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satis es the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The index of ethnic fractionalization calculated with our data has a correlation of 0.86 with the index obtained using the Atlas Nadorov Mira (ELF).”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows that for low levels of fractionalization the correlation between ethnic fractionalization 20 and polarization is positive and high.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When we move from two groups to three groups the relationship between FRAC and Q breaks down.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 4 shows that religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is not statistically signi cant.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In column 7 we include together the index of ethnic polarization and religious polarization. Only the estimated coe¢ cient of the rst one is statistically signi cant.”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However only three out of the ten countries with the highest level of religious fractionalization su/ered a civil war.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Probably not a substantial claim. 19
- It may state two separate claims as one. 21
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative e/ect on growth.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine 1997 source
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. 2003 source
The Introduction says the paper broadly confirms earlier findings of a negative effect of ethnic fragmentation on growth. Section 3 reports an inverse relationship between ethnic fractionalization and per-capita growth, while noting that the association vanishes after controlling for potential mediating variables. Page numbers were not supplied. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Not matchedcites La Porta et al. 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the fractionalization index the size of each group has no e/ect on the weight of the probabilities of two individuals belonging to di/erent groups whereas in the Q index these probabilities are weighted by the relative size of each group.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless we should notice that only in 3,6% of the countries the number of groups is equal to two.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 3 checks the relative strength of the index of ethnic polarization versus fractionalization and shows that the coe¢ cient on ethnic fractionalization is not signi cantly di/erent from zero while the one on polarization is positive and signi cant.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows a similar pattern: for low levels of religious fractionalization the correlation with polarization is positive. However for intermediate and high levels of religious fractionalization the correlation is zero.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index is precisely the index DP (1 , 4) 13 .”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This implies a very high degree of polarization (0.96), and a low level of fractionalization (0.52).”
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Imagine now that we increase the size of one group by epsilon and decrease the size of another group by the same amount. Now the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of fractionalization is smaller than its relative size, c i < π i , and the reverse happens for the smallest group.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is easy to show that the discrete Gini index (DG) calculated using a discrete metric is simply the index of fractionalization”
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the index of polarization the result is the opposite: the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of polarization is larger than its relative size, ˜ c i > π i , and the reverse happens to the smallest group.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We showed in the previous section that the index of fractionalization can be interpreted as a Gini index with a discrete metric (belong/do not belong to the group) instead of an Euclidean income distance.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However for the medium range the correlation is zero and for high levels of fractionalization the correlation with polarization is negative.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 6 shows the basic logit regressions using both religious fractionalization and religious polarization. The coe¢ cient of the index of religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is marginally insigni cant while the index of religious polarization (RELPOL) is statistically signi cant.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In both cases the degree of religious fractionalization is low.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index captures the idea of a large majority versus a large minority as the worst possible situation since the index in this case is close to the maximum.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“The Q index can be interpreted as the polarization measure of Esteban and Ray (1994) with a discrete metric.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Esteban and Ray (1994) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Columns 1 and 2 show that ethnic polarization is statistically signi cant in the presence of regional dummies 31 , with and without the inclusion of ethnic fractionalization”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELPOL | | | | | 0.73 (1.00) | 3.90 (1.97) | 0.44 (0.65) | 3.29 (1.59) |”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHPOL | | 2.37 (2.97) | 2.28 (2.23) | | | | 2.27 (2.84) | 2.09 (2.03) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 2.31 (2.76) | 1.95 (1.97) | 2.33 (2.16) | 2.05 (2.41) | 2.31 (2.23) | 2.32 (2.74) | 2.11 (2.02) | 2.35 (2.12) | 2.13 (2.48) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 34 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 3.35 (2.46) | 3.42 (2.48) | 3.26 (2.37) | 3.53 (2.44) | 2.95 (2.15) | 3.27 (2.26) |”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The quote only partly states this claim.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHFRAC | 1.19 (1.89) | | 0.17 (0.19) | | | | | 0.04 (0.05) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHFRAC | -0.52 (0.65) | 0.01 (0.01) | 0.57 (0.62) | -0.06 (0.09) | 0.18 (0.20) | -0.73 (0.92) | -0.14 (0.15) | 0.57 (0.63) | -0.17 (0.23) |”
plain- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“opposite to what happens with the coe¢ cient of the index of fractionalization calculated using the same source (estimated coe¢ cient=1.27 and z=1.67).”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When ethnic dominance is included with the Q index, column 3, its coe¢ cient is not signi cant while ethnic polarization continues being a signi cant explanatory variable on the probability of civil wars.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELFRAC | | | | 0.37 (0.36) | | -4.97 (1.65) | | -4.45 (1.39) |”
plain- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Collier (2001) also emphasizes that the relationship between ethnic diversity and the risk of violent con icts is not monotonic. Highly heterogeneous societies have even a lower probability of civil wars than homogeneous societies. The highest risk is associated with the middle range of ethnic diversity. 8”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Collier (2001) source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Horowitz (1985), which is the seminal reference on the issue of ethnic groups in con ict, argues that the relationship between ethnic diversity and civil wars is not monotonic: there is less violence in highly homogeneous and highly heterogeneous societies, and more con icts in societies where a large ethnic minority faces an ethnic majority.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Horowitz (1985)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Finally Fearon and Laitin (2003) indicate that a large population implies di¢ culties in controlling what goes on at the local level and increases the number of potential rebels that can be recruited by the insurgents.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However their theoretical arguments, as they recognize explicitly, are based on polarized societies 4 not on highly fractionalized cases.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine (1997) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoe› er (2002) nd that neither ethnic fractionalization nor religious fractionalization have any statistically signi cant e/ect on the probability of civil wars.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) consider that the size of the population is an additional proxy for the bene ts of a rebellion since it measures potential labor income taxation.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) point out that the existence of natural resources provide an opportunity for rebellion since these resources can be used to nance the war and increases the payo/ if victory is achieved.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
“In this paper we have shown that the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
In the paper
“Notice also that Fearon (2003) points out that the index of fractionalization, being not sensitive to discontinuities, cannot capture important di/erences in ethnic structures. In particular the idea of majority rule is not well re ected by the index of fractionalization.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We argued before that a high number of di/erent groups increases the coordination problems and, therefore, given a level of polarization, the probability of civil wars may be smaller.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The absolute z-statistics in parenthesis are calculated using standard errors adjusted for clustering.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“In addition Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) con rm that ethnolinguistic fractionalization has a direct negative e/ect on growth, probably due to its impact on the transmission of ideas.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper relies on this without support.
Civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.
“There is no doubt that civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 11
“Figure 3 shows the relationship between the index of ethnic fractionalization and ethnic polarization constructed using the data of Alesina et al. (2003).”
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 14
“Figure 3: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Atlas Nadorov Mira.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 11
“Figure 4 shows ethnic fractionalization and polarization calculated using the data from the Atlas Nadorov Mira, the third basic source of data on ethnic diversity.”
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 15
“Figure 4: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Alesina et al. (2003).”
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“…of natural resources, secondary school attainment (Collier and Hoeffler, 2004; Collier et al., 2005), income inequality (Sambanis, 2005), poverty (Djankov and Reynal-Querol, 2008), ethnic polarization (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005) or even the effect of diseases (Cervellati et al., 2010).”
BackgroundSvensson, I. (2016) · Handbooks of sociology and social research · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-31395-5_23 · Cited by 21
The Politics of Ethnic Identity in Sub-Saharan Africa
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“Between-group parity indicates ethnic polarization: the larger, richer and more similarly sized ethnic groups are, the more likely the chance of conflict incidence between them (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005).”
BackgroundInfluentialIndividualism and political instability
Ezcurra, R. (2020) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2020.101959 · Cited by 22
Dominant Forms of Conflict in Changing Political Systems
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What explains ethnic organizational violence? Evidence from Eastern Europe and Russia
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“Montalvo and Reynol-Querol (2005) find that ethnic polarization is robustly associated with the onset of civil war.”
BackgroundResources and Governance in Sierra Leone’s Civil War
Voors, M. J., van der Windt, P. C., Papaioannou, K. J., & Bulte, E. (2016) · The Journal of Development Studies · doi:10.1080/00220388.2016.1160068 · Cited by 24
“Other work has focused on so-called horizontal inequality (based on inequality coinciding with identity-based cleavages, see Østby et al., 2009; Stewart, 2000), or on ethnic diversity and conflict (for example, Esteban, Mayoral, & Ray, 2012; Horowitz, 1985; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
Leivas, P. H. S., & dos Santos, A. M. A. (2018) · Oxford Development Studies · doi:10.1080/13600818.2017.1394450 · Cited by 21
“Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) find evidence that ethnic polarisation significantly explains the incidence of civil wars.”
BackgroundInfluentialThe endless nexus between ethnic diversity, social exclusion and institutional quality of Pakistan
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Australia’s Gambling Epidemic: The Role of Neighbourhood Ethnic Diversity
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Ethnic Polarization And The Duration Of Civil Wars
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Self-citationEthnolinguistic diversity and urban agglomeration
Eberle, U. J., Henderson, J. V., Rohner, D., et al. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2002148117 · Cited by 20
Impact of Cultural Diversity on Western Balkan Countries’ Performance
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“Ethnic polarization index - Proposed by Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005), who apply the polarization index proposed by Esteban and Ray (1994), and shown to be correlated with incidence of civil wars; - Aghion et al. (2004), found to be correlated with the degree of insulation of political leaders.”
BackgroundOil Price Shocks and Conflict Escalation: Onshore versus Offshore
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Maintaining ethnic dominance: Diversity, power, and violent repression
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“It reaches its maximum, 1, when the population is evenly distributed between two ethnic groups following the assumption that demographic polarization leads to competition and conflict (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundIshiyama, J., Martinez, M., & Ozsut, M. (2018) · Social Science Quarterly · doi:10.1111/ssqu.12474 · Cited by 23
Duvanova, D., Nikolaev, A. G., Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy, A., & Semenov, A. (2015) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2015.10.003 · Cited by 21
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Socioeconomic perspectives on violent conflict in Indonesia
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“Grievance: Stewart (2000; 2008); Gurr (1970); Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005).”
BackgroundVasilakis, C., Docquier, F., Turrati, R., et al. (2020) · Bangor University Research Portal (Bangor University) · Cited by 19
Prepare developed democracies for long-run economic slowdowns
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“See Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) for a detailed discussion.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialOilfields, Mosques and Violence: Is There a Resource Curse in Xinjiang?
Hong, J. Y., & Yang, W. (2018) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123417000564 · Cited by 21
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“Moreover, diverse society generates a multicultural society that leads to conflicts within the society as well as within the firms (Reynal-Querol and Montalvo 2005).”
BackgroundDo we agree? Measuring the cohesiveness of preferences
Alcalde–Unzu, J., & Vorsatz, M. (2015) · Theory and Decision · doi:10.1007/s11238-015-9494-z · Cited by 20
“Since it has been found in several studies that some aspects of group cohesiveness like income disparity and ethnic polarization affect important socio–economic variables such as growth and the probability of conflicts (see Alesina and Rodrik [2], Persson and Tabellini [22], and Montalvo and Reynol–Querol [21]), it is…”
BackgroundDoes religious diversity make us unhappy?
Okulicz‐Kozaryn, A. (2011) · Mental Health Religion & Culture · doi:10.1080/13674676.2010.550277 · Cited by 20
“Economists use ethno-linguistic fractionalisation or polarisation 6 to explain economic development (Alesina et al, 2003 ; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005a ), governance (Lind, 2007 ) and civil wars (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005b , 2002 ).”
Does ethnic diversity increase violent crime? A global analysis of homicide rates, 1995–2013
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“Additionally, we test a measure of polarization introduced by economists that corresponds well with Fearon’s size of the second-largest group (Esteban and Ray, 2008; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
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Self-citationHashimoto, B. (2020) · International Organization · doi:10.1017/s0020818320000065 · Cited by 17
“Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005; Nunn and Puga 2012; OECD 2018; World Bank 2019.”
BackgroundInequality and inter-group conflicts: experimental evidence
Abbink, K., Masclet, D., & Mirza, D. (2017) · Social Choice and Welfare · doi:10.1007/s00355-017-1089-x · Cited by 18
Effects of social norms and fractionalization on voting behaviour in Japan
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Ethnic Diversity, Civil War and Redistribution*
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“This prediction is consistent with the empirical findings of Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) of conflict being especially likely in highly polarized societies.”
Glaurdić, J., & Vuković, V. (2017) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-017-0435-y · Cited by 18
Rising Ethnic Diversity in the United States Accompanies Shifts Toward an Individualistic Culture
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“To compute a measure of ethnic diversity, we employed the ethnic fractionalization (EF) index (Alesina et al., 2003; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
MethodHelfstein, S. (2013) · Defence and Peace Economics · doi:10.1080/10242694.2013.763505 · Cited by 18
“Studies of civil conflict reflect a similar debate, with some arguing that ethnic fractionalization plays little role in civil conflict (Fearon and Laitin 2003; Collier and Hoeffler 2004), while others stress that it is a critical factor (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005).”
BackgroundEthnic and Religious Diversity and Income Inequality
Dincer, O., & Hotard, M. (2011) · Eastern Economic Journal · doi:10.1057/eej.2010.58 · Cited by 21
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Diversity and Diversion: How Ethnic Composition Affects Diversionary Conflict
Haynes, K. (2015) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqv006 · Cited by 17
“…could render leaders of ethnically polarized states more likely to initiate diversionary conflict in response to domestic unrest.5 Recent empirical work finds that ethnically polarized states are most prone to domestic instability and violence (Reynal-Querol 2002; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005).”
BackgroundMethodDuclos, J., & Taptué, A.-M. (2014) · Handbook of income distribution · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-59428-0.00006-0 · Cited by 19
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“Figure 1 is similar to Figure 1 shown by Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialInflation and the Structure of Economic and Political Systems
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Religion and cooperation across the globe
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Families and Foes: Ethnic Civil War Duration.
Kirschner, S. A. (2009) · Deep Blue (University of Michigan) · Cited by 17
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“Some scholars find that higher levels of diversity increase the potential for conflict or discrimination (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005), while others find that religious diversity can actually decrease conflict (Dowd 2016).”
BackgroundYong, E. L. (2019) · Asian Journal of German and European Studies · doi:10.1186/s40856-019-0043-3 · Cited by 18
“For example, ethnic and religious polarization can devastate economic prosperity through adversely affecting investment, budget allocation by government, and the risk of civil war (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2003, 2005a, 2005b, 2010).8”
BackgroundInfluentialLu, Y., & Yang, X. Y. (2020) · Journal of Health and Social Behavior · doi:10.1177/0022146520904373 · Cited by 20
Boone, C., & Özcan, S. (2020) · Organization Science · doi:10.1287/orsc.2019.1338 · Cited by 17
Linguistic polarization and conflict in the Basque Country
Gardeazábal, J. (2011) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-011-9869-9 · Cited by 17
Butcher, C. R. (2014) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343314552717 · Cited by 17
Colonial legacy, polarization and linguistic disenfranchisement: The case of the Sri Lankan War
Dower, P. C., Ginsburgh, V. A., & Weber, S. (2016) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.12.006 · Cited by 17
“We situate our investigation in the well-established literature on polarization and conflict (Esteban and Ray, 1994; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundAkdede, S. H. (2011) · Bulletin of Economic Research · doi:10.1111/j.1467-8586.2010.00385.x · Cited by 17
Inequality and Riots – Experimental EvidencePreprint
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Democracy, Regime Durability and Terrorism in Africa
Ajide, K. B. (2019) · Defence and Peace Economics · doi:10.1080/10242694.2019.1671090 · Cited by 16
Hao, Y., & Xue, M. M. (2015) · Explorations in Economic History · doi:10.1016/j.eeh.2016.12.004 · Cited by 17
The unanimity rule and religious fractionalisation in the Polish-Lithuanian Republic
Roháč, D. (2008) · Constitutional Political Economy · doi:10.1007/s10602-008-9037-5 · Cited by 16
Inherently vulnerable? Ethnic geography and the intensity of violence in the Bosnian civil war
Salvatore, J. D. (2015) · Political Geography · doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2015.11.008 · Cited by 16
“Using countries as units of analysis, Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) shows that conflict in highly polarized societies tends to be very severe, conditional on conflict actually breaking out.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialEthnic Diversity and Economic Performance in China: The Role of Education, FDI, and Trade
Lee, S. Y., Lim, E. J., & Meng, Q. (2018) · Emerging Markets Finance and Trade · doi:10.1080/1540496x.2018.1429906 · Cited by 16
“The second conventional index of ethnic diversity is referred to as the polarization index (PI) from Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005).”
BackgroundDiasporas, diversity, and economic activity: Evidence from 18th-century Berlin
Hornung, E. (2018) · Explorations in Economic History · doi:10.1016/j.eeh.2018.10.001 · Cited by 16
An Empirical Analysis of Post‐Merger Organizational Integration
Smeets, V., Ierulli, K., & Gibbs, M. J. (2016) · Scandinavian Journal of Economics · doi:10.1111/sjoe.12161 · Cited by 16
“A potential reason is suggested by the literature on ethnic conflict and assimilation (e.g., Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005; Caselli and Coleman, 2010).”
BackgroundIs Africa Different? Historical Conflict and State DevelopmentPreprint
Dincecco, M., Fenske, J. E., & Onorato, M. G. (2014) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2538198 · Cited by 16
Should they stay or should they go? Climate Migrants and Local Conflicts
Bosetti, V., Cattaneo, C., & Peri, G. (2018) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w24447 · Cited by 15
Governance and Civil War Onset
Fearon, J. D. (2011) · doi:10.1596/9123 · Cited by 84
Decentralization, historical state capacity and public goods provision in Post-Soviet Russia
Foa, R. (2022) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105807 · Cited by 24
Egalitarian norms, economic development, and ethnic polarization
Haagsma, R., & von Mouche, P. (2012) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2012.10.005 · Cited by 15
Iran’s Multi-ethnic Mosaic: A 23-Year Perspective
Majbouri, M., & Fesharaki, S. (2017) · Social Indicators Research · doi:10.1007/s11205-017-1800-4 · Cited by 16
“Polarization index is defined based on Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005).”
MethodConsumers as VAT "Evaders": Incidence, Social Bias, and Correlates in Colombia
Fergusson, L., Molina, C., & Riaño, J. F. (2019) · Economía · doi:10.1353/eco.2019.0001 · Cited by 15
Amin, S., Ahmad, N., Iqbal, A., & Mustafa, G. (2021) · Environment Development and Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s10668-020-01181-3 · Cited by 15
“2003; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005) or other believe panel data (Leigh 2006; Reynal-Querol and Montalvo 2005).”
BackgroundShutdown policies and conflict worldwide
Berman, N., Couttenier, M., Monnet, N., & Ticku, R. (2021) · Journal of comparative economics (Print) · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2021.09.004 · Cited by 14
“30 Both variables can capture the relationship between ethnic cleavages and political instability or conflict that could exist across countries (Esteban and Ray, 1994, 1999; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
Metadata
- Authors
- Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal-Querol, M.
- Affiliations
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
- The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433.
- ORCID
- Montalvo, José G
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2005-06-01
- Volume
- 95
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 796-816
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1975264861
- Semantic Scholar
- d34e25710e0f59c77127215c237c4e3a5a19820b
- Cited by
- 1,386
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 33 · 2025: 63 · 2024: 64 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 97 · 2021: 76 · 2020: 89 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 77 · 2017: 61 · 2016: 70 · 2015: 90 · 2014: 79 · 2013: 80 · 2012: 61
- FWCI
- 145.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Development › Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Keywords
- ethnic fractionalization, ethnic conflict, civil war, ethnic distance, ethnic diversity, economic growth, political instability, corruption, investment, ethnic classification
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