The DOI matches its Crossref record; 40 of the 41 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 30 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars
Abstract
This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
The paper argues that ethnic fractionalization is the wrong measure for capturing potential conflict; an ethnic polarization index (Q) better predicts civil war incidence. Using logit regressions on 138 countries from 1960–99, ethnic polarization is positive and significant while ethnic fractionalization is not.
Key findings
- Ethnic fractionalization (ETHFRAC) has no statistically significant effect on civil war incidence (coefficient 1.19, z=1.89 in column 1), consistent with Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoeffler (1998).
- Ethnic polarization (ETHPOL) has a positive and statistically significant effect: coefficient 2.37 (z=2.97) alone, and 2.28 (z=2.23) when ETHFRAC is included; ETHFRAC remains insignificant (0.17, z=0.19).
- The effect is economically important: moving polarization from the average (0.51) to Guinea’s level (0.84) almost doubles the probability of conflict; a one-standard-deviation increase (0.24) raises the probability by 67%.
- Robustness checks support ethnic polarization across alternative civil-war definitions (PRIO1000, PRIO25, Doyle–Sambanis, Fearon–Laitin), alternative data sources (Alesina et al., Atlas Narodov Mira), regional dummies, and cross-section regressions; religious polarization is less robust and depends on specification.
Methods
- Logit regressions for civil war incidence using a panel of 138 countries over 1960–99, divided into five-year periods; dependent variable is PRIOCW (PRIO intermediate/high-intensity civil war), with robustness using PRIO1000, PRIO25, DSCW, and FLCW definitions.
- Core explanatory variables: log real GDP per capita at period start (LGDPC), log population (LPOP), primary exports (PRIMEXP), mountains (MOUNTAINS), noncontiguous state (NONCONT), and democracy (DEMOCRACY); ethnic and religious fractionalization/polarization indices are added.
- Ethnic heterogeneity data primarily from the World Christian Encyclopedia; religious data from L’Etat des Religions dans le Monde and The Statesman’s Yearbook; robustness uses Alesina et al. (2003) and Atlas Narodov Mira data.
Limitations
- The paper states no formal limitations section. It notes that religious polarization’s statistical relevance depends on the particular specification, and that when Sub-Saharan African countries are eliminated and ethnic fractionalization is included, ethnic polarization becomes insignificant (coefficient 1.98, z=1.32).
- The paper also reports that ethnic polarization is only marginally significant using the Fearon and Laitin civil-war definition (coefficient 1.95, z=1.97).
- Evident from the text: the analysis is observational cross-country panel logit, so causal interpretation is limited; results may depend on group classification and data source, though the paper argues robustness across sources.
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Claims the paper makes
50 Own result · 19 No basis given · 16 Own interpretation · 11 No full text of the sources · 6 Sources not found · 4 Not checked yet · 4 Own method · 1 Supported · 1 Supported so far · 1 Partly supported · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“In general the correlation between the index of fractionalization obtained using these alternative data sources is very high (over 0.8).”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2000)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Alesina et al (2003) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 2.2 reports a correlation of 0.88 between the paper’s linguistic index and the Soviet index, supporting one instance of the claim. But the corresponding ethnic-index correlation is 0.76, and the paper says the religious index has much lower correlations, so it does not support the generalization that correlations exceed 0.8. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- Not matched
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“The correlation with the index of Alesina et al. (2003) is 0.83.”
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. (2003) source
The Introduction (page unavailable) says Alesina et al. construct new fractionalization indices, so the citation correctly identifies the source of an index. The 0.83 correlation is presented as the citing paper’s comparison, not as a result attributed to Alesina et al. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
“In the empirical section we show that the index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant explanatory variable for the incidence of civil wars.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satis es the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The index of ethnic fractionalization calculated with our data has a correlation of 0.86 with the index obtained using the Atlas Nadorov Mira (ELF).”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows that for low levels of fractionalization the correlation between ethnic fractionalization 20 and polarization is positive and high.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When we move from two groups to three groups the relationship between FRAC and Q breaks down.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 4 shows that religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is not statistically signi cant.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In column 7 we include together the index of ethnic polarization and religious polarization. Only the estimated coe¢ cient of the rst one is statistically signi cant.”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However only three out of the ten countries with the highest level of religious fractionalization su/ered a civil war.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Probably not a substantial claim. 19
- It may state two separate claims as one. 21
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative e/ect on growth.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine 1997 source
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. 2003 source
The Introduction says the paper broadly confirms earlier findings of a negative effect of ethnic fragmentation on growth. Section 3 reports an inverse relationship between ethnic fractionalization and per-capita growth, while noting that the association vanishes after controlling for potential mediating variables. Page numbers were not supplied. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Not matchedcites La Porta et al. 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the fractionalization index the size of each group has no e/ect on the weight of the probabilities of two individuals belonging to di/erent groups whereas in the Q index these probabilities are weighted by the relative size of each group.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless we should notice that only in 3,6% of the countries the number of groups is equal to two.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 3 checks the relative strength of the index of ethnic polarization versus fractionalization and shows that the coe¢ cient on ethnic fractionalization is not signi cantly di/erent from zero while the one on polarization is positive and signi cant.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows a similar pattern: for low levels of religious fractionalization the correlation with polarization is positive. However for intermediate and high levels of religious fractionalization the correlation is zero.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index is precisely the index DP (1 , 4) 13 .”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This implies a very high degree of polarization (0.96), and a low level of fractionalization (0.52).”
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Imagine now that we increase the size of one group by epsilon and decrease the size of another group by the same amount. Now the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of fractionalization is smaller than its relative size, c i < π i , and the reverse happens for the smallest group.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is easy to show that the discrete Gini index (DG) calculated using a discrete metric is simply the index of fractionalization”
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the index of polarization the result is the opposite: the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of polarization is larger than its relative size, ˜ c i > π i , and the reverse happens to the smallest group.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We showed in the previous section that the index of fractionalization can be interpreted as a Gini index with a discrete metric (belong/do not belong to the group) instead of an Euclidean income distance.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However for the medium range the correlation is zero and for high levels of fractionalization the correlation with polarization is negative.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 6 shows the basic logit regressions using both religious fractionalization and religious polarization. The coe¢ cient of the index of religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is marginally insigni cant while the index of religious polarization (RELPOL) is statistically signi cant.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In both cases the degree of religious fractionalization is low.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index captures the idea of a large majority versus a large minority as the worst possible situation since the index in this case is close to the maximum.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“The Q index can be interpreted as the polarization measure of Esteban and Ray (1994) with a discrete metric.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Esteban and Ray (1994) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Columns 1 and 2 show that ethnic polarization is statistically signi cant in the presence of regional dummies 31 , with and without the inclusion of ethnic fractionalization”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELPOL | | | | | 0.73 (1.00) | 3.90 (1.97) | 0.44 (0.65) | 3.29 (1.59) |”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHPOL | | 2.37 (2.97) | 2.28 (2.23) | | | | 2.27 (2.84) | 2.09 (2.03) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 2.31 (2.76) | 1.95 (1.97) | 2.33 (2.16) | 2.05 (2.41) | 2.31 (2.23) | 2.32 (2.74) | 2.11 (2.02) | 2.35 (2.12) | 2.13 (2.48) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 34 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 3.35 (2.46) | 3.42 (2.48) | 3.26 (2.37) | 3.53 (2.44) | 2.95 (2.15) | 3.27 (2.26) |”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The quote only partly states this claim.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHFRAC | 1.19 (1.89) | | 0.17 (0.19) | | | | | 0.04 (0.05) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHFRAC | -0.52 (0.65) | 0.01 (0.01) | 0.57 (0.62) | -0.06 (0.09) | 0.18 (0.20) | -0.73 (0.92) | -0.14 (0.15) | 0.57 (0.63) | -0.17 (0.23) |”
plain- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“opposite to what happens with the coe¢ cient of the index of fractionalization calculated using the same source (estimated coe¢ cient=1.27 and z=1.67).”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When ethnic dominance is included with the Q index, column 3, its coe¢ cient is not signi cant while ethnic polarization continues being a signi cant explanatory variable on the probability of civil wars.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELFRAC | | | | 0.37 (0.36) | | -4.97 (1.65) | | -4.45 (1.39) |”
plain- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Collier (2001) also emphasizes that the relationship between ethnic diversity and the risk of violent con icts is not monotonic. Highly heterogeneous societies have even a lower probability of civil wars than homogeneous societies. The highest risk is associated with the middle range of ethnic diversity. 8”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Collier (2001) source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Horowitz (1985), which is the seminal reference on the issue of ethnic groups in con ict, argues that the relationship between ethnic diversity and civil wars is not monotonic: there is less violence in highly homogeneous and highly heterogeneous societies, and more con icts in societies where a large ethnic minority faces an ethnic majority.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Horowitz (1985)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Finally Fearon and Laitin (2003) indicate that a large population implies di¢ culties in controlling what goes on at the local level and increases the number of potential rebels that can be recruited by the insurgents.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However their theoretical arguments, as they recognize explicitly, are based on polarized societies 4 not on highly fractionalized cases.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine (1997) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoe› er (2002) nd that neither ethnic fractionalization nor religious fractionalization have any statistically signi cant e/ect on the probability of civil wars.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) consider that the size of the population is an additional proxy for the bene ts of a rebellion since it measures potential labor income taxation.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) point out that the existence of natural resources provide an opportunity for rebellion since these resources can be used to nance the war and increases the payo/ if victory is achieved.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
“In this paper we have shown that the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
In the paper
“Notice also that Fearon (2003) points out that the index of fractionalization, being not sensitive to discontinuities, cannot capture important di/erences in ethnic structures. In particular the idea of majority rule is not well re ected by the index of fractionalization.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We argued before that a high number of di/erent groups increases the coordination problems and, therefore, given a level of polarization, the probability of civil wars may be smaller.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The absolute z-statistics in parenthesis are calculated using standard errors adjusted for clustering.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“In addition Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) con rm that ethnolinguistic fractionalization has a direct negative e/ect on growth, probably due to its impact on the transmission of ideas.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper relies on this without support.
Civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.
“There is no doubt that civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 11
“Figure 3 shows the relationship between the index of ethnic fractionalization and ethnic polarization constructed using the data of Alesina et al. (2003).”
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 14
“Figure 3: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Atlas Nadorov Mira.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 11
“Figure 4 shows ethnic fractionalization and polarization calculated using the data from the Atlas Nadorov Mira, the third basic source of data on ethnic diversity.”
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 15
“Figure 4: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Alesina et al. (2003).”
Citations
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“This result is consistent with Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoeffler (1998).”
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 501–600 of 1,383
Vu, T. V. (2021) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105652 · Cited by 15
Land, history or modernization? Explaining ethnic fractionalization
Kaufmann, E. (2014) · Ethnic and Racial Studies · doi:10.1080/01419870.2014.887748 · Cited by 15
Fiscal decentralization and internal conflict: an empirical investigation
Ezcurra, R. (2015) · Environment and Planning C Government and Policy · doi:10.1068/c13141r · Cited by 15
de Groot, O. J. (2011) · The Journal of Development Studies · doi:10.1080/00220381003599386 · Cited by 15
“Montalvo and Reynal-Querol ( 2005 ), on the other hand, argue that the ethnolinguistic composition of a population is an important factor in explaining the occurrence of conflict.”
BackgroundThe Illusion of ‘Peace Through Power-Sharing’: Constitutional Choice in the Shadow of Civil War
Pospieszna, P., & Schneider, G. (2013) · Civil Wars · doi:10.1080/13698249.2013.850877 · Cited by 29
Economic Shocks & Civil Conflict Onset in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1981-2010
van Weezel, S. (2014) · Defence and Peace Economics · doi:10.1080/10242694.2014.887489 · Cited by 16
Generalized Gini polarization indices for an ordinal dimension of human well‐being
Chakravarty, S. R., & Maharaj, B. (2015) · International Journal of Economic Theory · doi:10.1111/ijet.12062 · Cited by 15
The trade facilitation impact of the Chinese diaspora
Martínez‐Zarzoso, I., & Rudolf, R. (2020) · World Economy · doi:10.1111/twec.12950 · Cited by 15
Trade and civil conflict: Revisiting the cross‐country evidence
Cali, M. A., & Mulabdić, A. (2016) · Review of International Economics · doi:10.1111/roie.12262 · Cited by 16
“This approach is also in line with other recent studies, for example Nunn and Qian (2013) and Dube and Vargas (2013).”
Religion versus Ethnicity as a Source of Mobilization
Stewart, F. (2012) · Palgrave Macmillan eBooks · doi:10.1057/9780230348318_10 · Cited by 17
New Tools for the Analysis of Political Power in Africa
Rainer, I., & Trebbi, F. (2012) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w18424 · Cited by 18
Trends in African Migration to Europe: Drivers Beyond Economic MotivationsPreprint
Giménez-Gómez, J.-M., Walle, Y. M., & Zergawu, Y. Z. (2019) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.25384/sage.c.4375166.v2 · Cited by 15
“Data for both ethnic fractionalization and polarization indices are obtained from Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005).”
MethodGeography, Poverty and Conflict in NepalPreprint
Do, Q., & Iyer, L. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.979610 · Cited by 16
Historical Legacies and African Development
Michalopoulos, S., & Papaioannou, E. (2018) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w25278 · Cited by 16
The Political Boundaries of Ethnic Divisions
Bazzi, S., & Gudgeon, M. (2018) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w24625 · Cited by 14
The Economics of Language Policy
Gazzola, M., & Wickström, B. (2016) · Project Muse (Johns Hopkins University) · Cited by 19
Linke, A. M., & Ο’Loughlin, J. (2015) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1111/misr.12207 · Cited by 14
Linguistic Situation in Twenty sub-Saharan African Countries: A Survey-based Approach
Buzási, K. (2016) · African Studies · doi:10.1080/00020184.2016.1193376 · Cited by 14
“…& Levine 1997; Pool 1972), social capital (Putnam 2007; Alesina & La Ferrara 2002), and the quality of government (Mauro 1995) are negatively associated with, while the probability of internal conflicts (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol 2005, 2010) is positively associated with (ethno)linguistic diversity.”
BackgroundL’union fait la force? Evidence for wage discrimination in firms with high diversity
Grinza, E., Kampelmann, S., & Rycx, F. (2020) · The Journal of Economic Inequality · doi:10.1007/s10888-019-09433-7 · Cited by 14
Panek, T., & Zwierzchowski, J. (2020) · Social Indicators Research · doi:10.1007/s11205-020-02274-2 · Cited by 17
Explaining fiscal decentralization and the role of ethnic Diversity
Pickard, H. (2020) · Scottish Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1111/sjpe.12246 · Cited by 14
“Additionally, others demonstrate how internal fractionalization can increase the risk of the onset of violent civil conflict (Desmet et al., 2012; Fearon & Laitin, 2003; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundExploring the trend in religious diversity: Based on the geographical perspective
Lin, X., Chen, Q., Wei, L., et al. (2022) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0271343 · Cited by 14
“Based on this theory, various measures of religious diversity have been developed, among which the Montalvo polarization index is the most widely used [39].”
BackgroundThe Intrastate Contagion of Ethnic Civil War
Lane, M. (2016) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/684630 · Cited by 15
Elections, Ethnicity, and Political Instability
Butcher, C. R., & Goldsmith, B. E. (2016) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414016666858 · Cited by 14
“Polarization is correlated with fractionalization (correlation coefficient of .64 in the data used in this article), and there is some evidence that it increases the chances of civil wars and genocides (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundMethodCao, X., Duan, H., Liu, C., Piazza, J. A., & Wei, Y. (2018) · Project Muse (Johns Hopkins University) · Cited by 15
Income distribution and health: can polarization explain health outcomes better than inequality?
Yao, Y. X., Wan, G., & Meng, D. (2018) · The European Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1007/s10198-018-1016-9 · Cited by 15
“While the existing polarization literature largely focuses on its influence on social tensions and conflict [26, 32, 41], little has been published regarding the polarization–health relationship, with the exceptions of Pérez and Ramos [35].”
Income Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria
Abidoye, B., & Cali, M. A. (2021) · Journal of African Economies · doi:10.1093/jae/ejab001 · Cited by 16
Chakravarty, S. R., & Maharaj, B. (2010) · Social Choice and Welfare · doi:10.1007/s00355-010-0498-x · Cited by 16
“We can also motivate this axiom following ( Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005, p.799 )whoarguedthat“theproportional contributionofthelargestgroupintheindex of polarization is larger…and the reverse happens to the smallest group.” Now, since ψP( p) represents the impact of the group with population share p, the group’s p…”
BackgroundMostly Harmless? A Subnational Analysis of the Aid-Conflict NexusPreprint
van Weezel, S. (2014) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2450867 · Cited by 14
“Some recent studies have provided empirical evidence for a link between ethnic heterogeneity and the prevalence of conflict (Bosker and de Ree, 2014; Cederman and Girardin, 2007; Kuhn and Weidmann, 2013; Weidmann, 2009), therefore an ethnic polarisation measure (Garcia-Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005) is included, da…”
BackgroundVoting after the Bombing: Can Terrorist Attacks Change the Outcome of Democratic Elections?Preprint
Montalvo, J. G. (2007) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1002833 · Cited by 14
Self-citationChaudoin, S., Peskowitz, Z., & Stanton, C. (2015) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002715569773 · Cited by 19
Determinants of firm performance: does ethnic diversity matter?
Churchill, S. A., & Valenzuela, M. R. (2018) · Empirical Economics · doi:10.1007/s00181-018-1529-1 · Cited by 13
“…effect of ethnic and religious heterogeneity on economic growth, institutional quality, conflict and trust among others (see, e.g., Alesina and Zhuravskaya 2011; Easterly and Levine 1997; La Porta et al. 1999; Leigh 2006; Mauro 1995; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005; Reynal-Querol andMontalvo 2005).”
A cross-national investigation into the effects of religion on gender equality
Yeganeh, H. (2021) · International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy · doi:10.1108/ijssp-10-2020-0479 · Cited by 13
Selway, J. (2015) · Cited by 13
Size Matters: The Effect of the Size of Ethnic Groups on Development
Dimico, A. (2016) · Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1111/obes.12145 · Cited by 13
“The effect of ethnic divisions has also been widely debated in the economic literature (Easterly and Levine, 1997; Alesina, Devleeschauwer, Easterly, Kurlat and Wacziarg, 2003; Fearon, 2003; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005; Esteban and Ray, 2008; Michalopoulos, 2012).”
Rabinowitz, B. S., & Jargowsky, P. A. (2017) · Armed Forces & Society · doi:10.1177/0095327x17695514 · Cited by 13
Indra, I., Nazara, S., Hartono, D., et al. (2019) · Asian Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/asej.12179 · Cited by 13
Immigration Attitudes and Subjective Well-Being: A Matter of Identity?
Welsch, H., Biermann, P., & Kühling, J. (2020) · Journal of Happiness Studies · doi:10.1007/s10902-020-00284-y · Cited by 13
Identity and Off-Diagonals: How Permanent Winning Coalitions Destroy Democratic Governance
Boettke, P. J., & Thompson, H. A. (2019) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-019-00683-7 · Cited by 13
IS THERE ROOM FOR POLARIZATION?
Yitzhaki, S. (2009) · Review of Income and Wealth · doi:10.1111/j.1475-4991.2009.00360.x · Cited by 14
PREDATORY BEHAVIOR OF GOVERNMENTS: THE CASE OF MASS KILLING
Bae, S. H., & Ott, A. F. (2008) · Defence and Peace Economics · doi:10.1080/10242690701516846 · Cited by 13
“, 2006 ; Reynal‐Querol, 2002 ; Montalvo and Reynal‐Querol, 2005 ; Harff, 2003 ; Fearon and Laitin, 2003 ; Sambanis, 2004 ; Collier et al.”
BackgroundEconomic Development Strategies and Communal Violence in Africa
McCauley, J. F. (2012) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414012453034 · Cited by 12
“…of this sort as a function of several competing factors, including “primordial” tensions (Horowitz, 1985), ethnic polarization (Esteban & Ray, 1999; Montalvo & Reynal-Queral, 2005) and dominance (Cederman & Girardin, 2007), the institutional weakness of the state (Fearon & Laitin, 2003),…”
BackgroundTadjoeddin, M. Z. (2012) · Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy · doi:10.1080/13547860.2012.694705 · Cited by 13
“…who are fragmented compared with the more polarised setting of PILKADA.5 As the risk of conflict lies in polarisation, not fragmentation (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005, 2007), grass-roots supporters and voters tend to be more militant and easier to mobilise in the context of PILKADAs…”
BackgroundA missing spatial link in institutional quality
Claeys, P., & Manca, F. (2010) · Applied Economics Letters · doi:10.1080/13504850903559542 · Cited by 13
Acemoğlu, D., Fergusson, L., & Johnson, S. (2017) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w23322 · Cited by 15
Essays on privatization, identity, and political polarization
Lindqvist, E. (2007) · Cited by 11
Bargaining under polarization: The case of the Colombian armed conflict
Laengle, S. M., Loyola, G., & Orozco, D. T. (2020) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343319892675 · Cited by 12
“…approach to the search for a 1 Other related contributions include the proposal of an alternative polarization index (Reynal-Querol, 2002) and the study of evidence on the relationship between polarization and the incidence of civil wars (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005). peaceful resolution.”
BackgroundMeasuring Linguistic Diversity: A Multi-level Metric
Grin, F., & Fürst, G. (2022) · Social Indicators Research · doi:10.1007/s11205-022-02934-5 · Cited by 12
“Furthermore, the sociological importance of interlinguistic difference may have more to do with perceptions than with objectively measured distance (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundStojčić, N., Vizek, M., & Glaurdić, J. (2024) · Regional Studies · doi:10.1080/00343404.2024.2346664 · Cited by 12
“The model also includes the ethnic polarisation index (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005; Reynal-Querol, 2002), a measure of the distance of the local distribution of ethnic groups from bipolar distribution.”
Contact, Diversity, and Segregation
Uslaner, E. M. (2012) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139026758.003 · Cited by 11
Combinatorial Optimization with Information Geometry: The Newton Method
Malagò, L., & Pistone, G. (2014) · Entropy · doi:10.3390/e16084260 · Cited by 12
“Here, we consider the qualitative version of [21].”
BackgroundMigrant diversity and team performance in a high‐skilled labour market
Addesa, F., Pazzona, M., & Rossi, G. (2022) · Kyklos · doi:10.1111/kykl.12299 · Cited by 12
Public Investment in Hazard Mitigation: Effectiveness and the Role of Community Diversity
Petkov, I. (2022) · Economics of Disasters and Climate Change · doi:10.1007/s41885-022-00119-5 · Cited by 12
Ethno-religious Conflicts and the Challenges of National Security in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic
Adenuga, G. A., Olajubu, A., Oyewole, S., & Omotola, J. S. (2023) · South African Review of Sociology · doi:10.1080/21528586.2023.2233462 · Cited by 16
“However, the diversity theory stipulates that a state with a multiplicity of ethnic and religious groups tends towards parochialism and section-alism (Alesina and Ferrara 2005; Kanbur, Rajaram, and Varshney 2011; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005).”
BackgroundHolger Strulik, B. (2011) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.06.007 · Cited by 12
“Similar results have been found by Zak and Knack (2001) with respect to trust in economic transactions and by Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) with respect to ethnic polarization, potential conflict, and civil wars.”
ResultOn the Determinants of Democratic Transitions
Freund, C. L., & Jaud, M. (2013) · Middle East Development Journal · doi:10.1142/s1793812013500053 · Cited by 13
“Rather than the diversity of ethnic groups, ethnic polarization, that is the contested dominance of one large group by another group, increases the probability of civil con°ict (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005).”
BackgroundAltitude and adaptation: A study of geography and ethnic division
Paik, C., & Shawa, T. W. (2013) · Applied Geography · doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.02.003 · Cited by 12
Beyond divide and rule: Weak dictators, natural resources and civil conflict
Luca, G. D. D., Sekeris, P. G., & Vargas, J. F. (2017) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2017.09.001 · Cited by 12
“The salience of ethnic divisions in triggering civil conflicts has received mixed support by empirical studies (Fearon and Laitin 2003, Collier and Hoeffler 2004, Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005, Esteban et al. 2012 a,b), and ethnic violence has been widely studied theoretically.”
ResultMeasuring polarization in preferences
Can, B., Özkes, A., & Storcken, T. (2015) · Mathematical Social Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2015.09.006 · Cited by 12
“1See, inter alia, Esteban and Ray (1994) and Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005).”
BackgroundFighting for Votes: Theory and Evidence on the Causes of Electoral Violence
Sterck, O. C. (2019) · Economica · doi:10.1111/ecca.12321 · Cited by 12
“As explained by Esteban and Ray (1999), “in general, the conflict distribution relationship is nonlinear and surprisingly complex”, implying that simplifying assumptions are usually needed to solve models with N > 2 players (Garcia-Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005a).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialTrust and cooperation at a confluence of worlds: An experiment in Xinjiang, China
Zhang, Z., Zhang, X., & Putterman, L. G. (2019) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2019.03.001 · Cited by 11
Fractionalization and Inter‐Group Differences
Lind, J. T. (2007) · Kyklos · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6435.2007.00363.x · Cited by 12
Population heterogeneity and growth
Eris, M. (2010) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2010.02.010 · Cited by 12
Chapter 3 A Reexamination of the Political Economy of Growth in the MENA Countries
Esfahani, H. S. (2006) · Contributions to economic analysis · doi:10.1016/s0573-8555(06)78003-8 · Cited by 14
Neighbors at Risk A Quantitative Study of Civil War Contagion
Forsberg, E. (2009) · KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) · Cited by 12
Ethnic Diversity and Attitudes Towards Redistribution: A Review of the LiteraturePreprint
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Inequality, Ethnicity and Civil ConflictPreprint
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The Maoist Insurgency in Nepal and the Political Economy of ViolencePreprint
Acharya, A. R. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1603750 · Cited by 12
War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and ConflictPreprint
Rohner, D., Thoenig, M., & Zilibotti, F. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1799949 · Cited by 14
The last Yugoslavs: Ethnic diversity and national identity
Kukić, L. (2022) · Explorations in Economic History · doi:10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101504 · Cited by 11
Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from refugee-hosting areas
Bertinelli, L., Cömertpay, R., & Maystadt, J.-F. (2024) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103393 · Cited by 11
Ragasa, C., Badibanga, T. M., & Ulimwengu, J. M. (2016) · Food Security · doi:10.1007/s12571-016-0595-5 · Cited by 12
Income polarization in European countries and Europe wide, 2004–2012
Wang, J., Caminada, K., Goudswaard, K., & Wang, C. (2017) · Cambridge Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/cje/bex065 · Cited by 10
“Social polarization describes cases in which variables of interest are qualitative or noncardinal (for instance ethnic polarization; see Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundBrüeckner, M. (2021) · Journal of risk and financial management · doi:10.3390/jrfm14100492 · Cited by 11
Decomposing attitude distributions to characterize attitude polarization in Europe
Gestefeld, M., Lorenz, J., Henschel, N. T., & Boehnke, K. (2022) · SN Social Sciences · doi:10.1007/s43545-022-00342-7 · Cited by 15
“, income (Esteban and Ray 1994), employment (Goos and Manning 2007; Cirillo 2018), or ethnicity (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005; Schneider and Wiesehomeier 2006).”
BackgroundEthnic practice in electoral politics: Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 1990 Presidency elections
Kapidžić, D. (2014) · Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies · doi:10.1080/14683857.2014.974371 · Cited by 11
National Identity and Religious Diversity
Harttgen, K., & Opfinger, M. (2014) · Kyklos · doi:10.1111/kykl.12058 · Cited by 12
Miodownik, D., & Bhavnani, R. (2011) · Conflict Management and Peace Science · doi:10.1177/0738894211418426 · Cited by 11
“The former finding suggests that the risk of violence rises with the level of ethnic polarization (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005), whereas the latter suggests just the opposite: the larger the minority in power, the greater its ability to “buy out” the support of co-ethnics and members of…”
BackgroundDimensions of Ethnic Diversity and Underground Economic Activity: Cross-country Evidence
Berdiev, A. N., Goel, R. K., & Saunoris, J. W. (2020) · Public Finance Review · doi:10.1177/1091142120901501 · Cited by 11
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Metadata
- Authors
- Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal-Querol, M.
- Affiliations
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
- The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433.
- ORCID
- Montalvo, José G
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2005-06-01
- Volume
- 95
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 796-816
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1975264861
- Semantic Scholar
- d34e25710e0f59c77127215c237c4e3a5a19820b
- Cited by
- 1,386
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 33 · 2025: 63 · 2024: 64 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 97 · 2021: 76 · 2020: 89 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 77 · 2017: 61 · 2016: 70 · 2015: 90 · 2014: 79 · 2013: 80 · 2012: 61
- FWCI
- 145.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Development › Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Keywords
- ethnic fractionalization, ethnic conflict, civil war, ethnic distance, ethnic diversity, economic growth, political instability, corruption, investment, ethnic classification
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