The DOI matches its Crossref record; 40 of the 41 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 30 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars
Abstract
This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
The paper argues that ethnic fractionalization is the wrong measure for capturing potential conflict; an ethnic polarization index (Q) better predicts civil war incidence. Using logit regressions on 138 countries from 1960–99, ethnic polarization is positive and significant while ethnic fractionalization is not.
Key findings
- Ethnic fractionalization (ETHFRAC) has no statistically significant effect on civil war incidence (coefficient 1.19, z=1.89 in column 1), consistent with Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoeffler (1998).
- Ethnic polarization (ETHPOL) has a positive and statistically significant effect: coefficient 2.37 (z=2.97) alone, and 2.28 (z=2.23) when ETHFRAC is included; ETHFRAC remains insignificant (0.17, z=0.19).
- The effect is economically important: moving polarization from the average (0.51) to Guinea’s level (0.84) almost doubles the probability of conflict; a one-standard-deviation increase (0.24) raises the probability by 67%.
- Robustness checks support ethnic polarization across alternative civil-war definitions (PRIO1000, PRIO25, Doyle–Sambanis, Fearon–Laitin), alternative data sources (Alesina et al., Atlas Narodov Mira), regional dummies, and cross-section regressions; religious polarization is less robust and depends on specification.
Methods
- Logit regressions for civil war incidence using a panel of 138 countries over 1960–99, divided into five-year periods; dependent variable is PRIOCW (PRIO intermediate/high-intensity civil war), with robustness using PRIO1000, PRIO25, DSCW, and FLCW definitions.
- Core explanatory variables: log real GDP per capita at period start (LGDPC), log population (LPOP), primary exports (PRIMEXP), mountains (MOUNTAINS), noncontiguous state (NONCONT), and democracy (DEMOCRACY); ethnic and religious fractionalization/polarization indices are added.
- Ethnic heterogeneity data primarily from the World Christian Encyclopedia; religious data from L’Etat des Religions dans le Monde and The Statesman’s Yearbook; robustness uses Alesina et al. (2003) and Atlas Narodov Mira data.
Limitations
- The paper states no formal limitations section. It notes that religious polarization’s statistical relevance depends on the particular specification, and that when Sub-Saharan African countries are eliminated and ethnic fractionalization is included, ethnic polarization becomes insignificant (coefficient 1.98, z=1.32).
- The paper also reports that ethnic polarization is only marginally significant using the Fearon and Laitin civil-war definition (coefficient 1.95, z=1.97).
- Evident from the text: the analysis is observational cross-country panel logit, so causal interpretation is limited; results may depend on group classification and data source, though the paper argues robustness across sources.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
50 Own result · 19 No basis given · 16 Own interpretation · 11 No full text of the sources · 6 Sources not found · 4 Not checked yet · 4 Own method · 1 Supported · 1 Supported so far · 1 Partly supported · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“In general the correlation between the index of fractionalization obtained using these alternative data sources is very high (over 0.8).”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2000)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Alesina et al (2003) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 2.2 reports a correlation of 0.88 between the paper’s linguistic index and the Soviet index, supporting one instance of the claim. But the corresponding ethnic-index correlation is 0.76, and the paper says the religious index has much lower correlations, so it does not support the generalization that correlations exceed 0.8. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“The correlation with the index of Alesina et al. (2003) is 0.83.”
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. (2003) source
The Introduction (page unavailable) says Alesina et al. construct new fractionalization indices, so the citation correctly identifies the source of an index. The 0.83 correlation is presented as the citing paper’s comparison, not as a result attributed to Alesina et al. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
“In the empirical section we show that the index of ethnic polarization is a signi cant explanatory variable for the incidence of civil wars.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · p. 3 · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satis es the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The index of ethnic fractionalization calculated with our data has a correlation of 0.86 with the index obtained using the Atlas Nadorov Mira (ELF).”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows that for low levels of fractionalization the correlation between ethnic fractionalization 20 and polarization is positive and high.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When we move from two groups to three groups the relationship between FRAC and Q breaks down.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 4 shows that religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is not statistically signi cant.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In column 7 we include together the index of ethnic polarization and religious polarization. Only the estimated coe¢ cient of the rst one is statistically signi cant.”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However only three out of the ten countries with the highest level of religious fractionalization su/ered a civil war.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Probably not a substantial claim. 19
- It may state two separate claims as one. 21
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative e/ect on growth.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine 1997 source
- Supportedcites Alesina et al. 2003 source
The Introduction says the paper broadly confirms earlier findings of a negative effect of ethnic fragmentation on growth. Section 3 reports an inverse relationship between ethnic fractionalization and per-capita growth, while noting that the association vanishes after controlling for potential mediating variables. Page numbers were not supplied. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Not matchedcites La Porta et al. 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the fractionalization index the size of each group has no e/ect on the weight of the probabilities of two individuals belonging to di/erent groups whereas in the Q index these probabilities are weighted by the relative size of each group.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless we should notice that only in 3,6% of the countries the number of groups is equal to two.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 3 checks the relative strength of the index of ethnic polarization versus fractionalization and shows that the coe¢ cient on ethnic fractionalization is not signi cantly di/erent from zero while the one on polarization is positive and signi cant.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It shows a similar pattern: for low levels of religious fractionalization the correlation with polarization is positive. However for intermediate and high levels of religious fractionalization the correlation is zero.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index is precisely the index DP (1 , 4) 13 .”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This implies a very high degree of polarization (0.96), and a low level of fractionalization (0.52).”
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Imagine now that we increase the size of one group by epsilon and decrease the size of another group by the same amount. Now the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of fractionalization is smaller than its relative size, c i < π i , and the reverse happens for the smallest group.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is easy to show that the discrete Gini index (DG) calculated using a discrete metric is simply the index of fractionalization”
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the index of polarization the result is the opposite: the proportional contribution of the largest group in the index of polarization is larger than its relative size, ˜ c i > π i , and the reverse happens to the smallest group.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We showed in the previous section that the index of fractionalization can be interpreted as a Gini index with a discrete metric (belong/do not belong to the group) instead of an Euclidean income distance.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However for the medium range the correlation is zero and for high levels of fractionalization the correlation with polarization is negative.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 6 shows the basic logit regressions using both religious fractionalization and religious polarization. The coe¢ cient of the index of religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) is marginally insigni cant while the index of religious polarization (RELPOL) is statistically signi cant.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In both cases the degree of religious fractionalization is low.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Q index captures the idea of a large majority versus a large minority as the worst possible situation since the index in this case is close to the maximum.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“The Q index can be interpreted as the polarization measure of Esteban and Ray (1994) with a discrete metric.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Esteban and Ray (1994) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Columns 1 and 2 show that ethnic polarization is statistically signi cant in the presence of regional dummies 31 , with and without the inclusion of ethnic fractionalization”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELPOL | | | | | 0.73 (1.00) | 3.90 (1.97) | 0.44 (0.65) | 3.29 (1.59) |”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHPOL | | 2.37 (2.97) | 2.28 (2.23) | | | | 2.27 (2.84) | 2.09 (2.03) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 2.31 (2.76) | 1.95 (1.97) | 2.33 (2.16) | 2.05 (2.41) | 2.31 (2.23) | 2.32 (2.74) | 2.11 (2.02) | 2.35 (2.12) | 2.13 (2.48) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 34 · plain
“| ETHPOL | 3.35 (2.46) | 3.42 (2.48) | 3.26 (2.37) | 3.53 (2.44) | 2.95 (2.15) | 3.27 (2.26) |”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| ETHFRAC | 1.19 (1.89) | | 0.17 (0.19) | | | | | 0.04 (0.05) |”
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
“| ETHFRAC | -0.52 (0.65) | 0.01 (0.01) | 0.57 (0.62) | -0.06 (0.09) | 0.18 (0.20) | -0.73 (0.92) | -0.14 (0.15) | 0.57 (0.63) | -0.17 (0.23) |”
plain- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Also stated in: § References · p. 32 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“opposite to what happens with the coe¢ cient of the index of fractionalization calculated using the same source (estimated coe¢ cient=1.27 and z=1.67).”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When ethnic dominance is included with the Q index, column 3, its coe¢ cient is not signi cant while ethnic polarization continues being a signi cant explanatory variable on the probability of civil wars.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“| RELFRAC | | | | 0.37 (0.36) | | -4.97 (1.65) | | -4.45 (1.39) |”
plain- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Collier (2001) also emphasizes that the relationship between ethnic diversity and the risk of violent con icts is not monotonic. Highly heterogeneous societies have even a lower probability of civil wars than homogeneous societies. The highest risk is associated with the middle range of ethnic diversity. 8”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Collier (2001) source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Horowitz (1985), which is the seminal reference on the issue of ethnic groups in con ict, argues that the relationship between ethnic diversity and civil wars is not monotonic: there is less violence in highly homogeneous and highly heterogeneous societies, and more con icts in societies where a large ethnic minority faces an ethnic majority.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Horowitz (1985)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Finally Fearon and Laitin (2003) indicate that a large population implies di¢ culties in controlling what goes on at the local level and increases the number of potential rebels that can be recruited by the insurgents.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However their theoretical arguments, as they recognize explicitly, are based on polarized societies 4 not on highly fractionalized cases.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Easterly and Levine (1997) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoe› er (2002) nd that neither ethnic fractionalization nor religious fractionalization have any statistically signi cant e/ect on the probability of civil wars.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin (2003) source
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) consider that the size of the population is an additional proxy for the bene ts of a rebellion since it measures potential labor income taxation.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Collier and Hoe› er (2002) point out that the existence of natural resources provide an opportunity for rebellion since these resources can be used to nance the war and increases the payo/ if victory is achieved.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
“In this paper we have shown that the di/erence between ethnic polarization and fractionalization is both theoretical and actual.”
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § 7 Conclusions · p. 24 · boosted
In the paper
“Notice also that Fearon (2003) points out that the index of fractionalization, being not sensitive to discontinuities, cannot capture important di/erences in ethnic structures. In particular the idea of majority rule is not well re ected by the index of fractionalization.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fearon (2003)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We argued before that a high number of di/erent groups increases the coordination problems and, therefore, given a level of polarization, the probability of civil wars may be smaller.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The absolute z-statistics in parenthesis are calculated using standard errors adjusted for clustering.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“In addition Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) con rm that ethnolinguistic fractionalization has a direct negative e/ect on growth, probably due to its impact on the transmission of ideas.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper relies on this without support.
Civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.
“There is no doubt that civil wars are traumatic events that damage economic development.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 11
“Figure 3 shows the relationship between the index of ethnic fractionalization and ethnic polarization constructed using the data of Alesina et al. (2003).”
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 14
“Figure 3: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Atlas Nadorov Mira.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 11
“Figure 4 shows ethnic fractionalization and polarization calculated using the data from the Atlas Nadorov Mira, the third basic source of data on ethnic diversity.”
§ 4.2 Are empirical polarization and fractionalization very di/erent? · p. 15
“Figure 4: Ethnic fractionalization versus polarization. Source: Alesina et al. (2003).”
Citations
Cites
Mauro, P. (1995) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/2946696 · Cited by 8,820
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
FEARON, J. D., & LAITIN, D. D. (2003) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055403000534 · Cited by 7,366
(2012) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.102.7.i · Cited by 7,275
Greed and grievance in civil war
Collier, P. D. (2004) · Oxford Economic Papers · doi:10.1093/oep/gpf064 · Cited by 6,295
La Porta, R. (1999) · Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization · doi:10.1093/jleo/15.1.222 · Cited by 5,699
Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions
Easterly, W., & Levine, R. (1997) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355300555466 · Cited by 5,649 · cited 4×
“The index of ethnic 4 Easterly and Levine, 1997, pp. 1205, 1232, and 1241. fractionalization has a simple interpretation as the probability that two randomly selected individuals from a given country will not belong to the same ethnic group.5 Many authors have found, however, that even though…”
BackgroundInfluentialKuper, L., & Horowitz, D. L. (1986) · Contemporary Sociology A Journal of Reviews · doi:10.2307/2069338 · Cited by 4,891
Mauro, P. (1995) · doi:10.1007/s12117-997-1097-9 · Cited by 4,683
Alesina, A., Devleeschauwer, A., Easterly, W., Kurlat, S., & Wacziarg, R. (2003) · Journal of Economic Growth · doi:10.1023/a:1024471506938 · Cited by 3,432
On economic causes of civil war
Collier, P. D. (1998) · Oxford Economic Papers · doi:10.1093/oep/50.4.563 · Cited by 2,523 · cited 3×
“This result is consistent with Fearon and Laitin (2003) and Collier and Hoeffler (1998).”
BackgroundResult
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- Barrett, David B., ed., World Christian encyclopedia. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1982.
- Paxton John, New York: Macmillan, 1983, 1985
- Wolfson Michael C, 1994, American Economic Review, 84
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 601–700 of 1,383
Wimmer, A., & Miner, C. (2019) · Journal of Global Security Studies · doi:10.1093/jogss/ogz009 · Cited by 12
Religion and Conflict: A Quantitative Approach
Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal‐Querol, M. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-98848-1_15 · Cited by 10
Self-citationExploring citizen turnout and invalid voting in Indonesia: two sides of the same coin?
Fossati, D., & Coma, F. M. I. (2019) · Contemporary Politics · doi:10.1080/13569775.2019.1690210 · Cited by 10
“Following such premise, we rely on the ethnic polarisation (RQ) index -developed by Reynal-Querol (2002) and Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005a, 2005b)- is maximised when the groups are more equal.”
MethodThe role of ethnic characteristics in the effect of income shocks on African conflict
Manotas-Hidalgo, B., Pérez-Sebastián, F., & Campo‐Bescós, M. Á. (2020) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105153 · Cited by 12
The effects of discriminatory protections on cross-border mergers and acquisitions
Ding, H., Fan, H., Li, C., et al. (2022) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2022.11.003 · Cited by 10
Jha, S. (2012) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1057/9781137034014_8 · Cited by 10
“…and Sokoloff, 2000), to African and other developing countries, where polarization along ethnic lines leads to lower growth and greater conflict (eg Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005), to reduced public goods provision in ethnically diverse jurisdictions in the United States (eg Alesina, Baqir,…”
Linguistic Cleavages and Economic Development
Desmet, K., Ortuño-Ortı́n, I., & Wacziarg, R. T. (2016) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-137-32505-1_16 · Cited by 10
A Database on the Mozambican Civil War
Domingues, P. (2011) · Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy · doi:10.2202/1554-8597.1229 · Cited by 10
Jayadev, A., & Reddy, S. G. (2019) · Economic studies in inequality, social exclusion and well-being · doi:10.1007/978-981-13-7944-4_7 · Cited by 11
Exploring Opportunities in Cultural Diversity
Laitin, D. D., & Jeon, S. (2015) · Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences · doi:10.1002/9781118900772.etrds0127 · Cited by 10
“…the potential costs of diversity are well-known, and include: increased likelihood of civil conflict (Esteban, Mayoral, & Ray, 2012; Horowitz, 1985; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005), labor market discrimination (Becker, 1957; Bertrand & Mullainathan, 2004; Adida, Laitin, & Valfort, 2010), lower…”
All Types of Inequality are Not Created Equal: Divergent Impacts of Equality on Economic GrowthPreprint
Seguino, S. (2006) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.875382 · Cited by 10
“…by data from several additional country-level studies on ethnic earnings gaps.21 For illustrative purposes, data on so-called ethno linguistic fragmentation (ELF) is provided as well as a newer measure, based on the ELF data set, of ethnic polarization data from Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005).”
MethodI Sell My Vote, and So What? A New Database and Evidence from Colombia
Fergusson, L., Molina, C., & Riaao, J. F. (2017) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2935385 · Cited by 10
Cultural Tension and Large- and Small-Scale Internal Conflicts
Parsons, B., & Naghshpour, S. (2024) · Journal of Ethnic and Cultural Studies · doi:10.29333/ejecs/1937 · Cited by 9
“Although Fox (2000) and Arbatli et al. (2020) find empirical support for the role of religious diversity in driving conflicts, other researchers claim religious diversity alone is not a sufficient condition for conflict (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005, 2010, 2019).”
BackgroundThe long-term effects of the slave trade on political violence in Sub-Saharan Africa
Yu, Z., Xu, Z., & Kibriya, S. (2021) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2021.02.004 · Cited by 9
Ethnic Bias after Ethnic Conflict: Preferential Voting and the Serb Minority in Croatian Elections
Glaurdić, J., Mochťak, M., & Lesschaeve, C. (2021) · Ethnopolitics · doi:10.1080/17449057.2021.1997440 · Cited by 9
“In our view, this line of evidence resonates particularly well with the insights from the literature on ethnic polarization and ethnic conflict (Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
ResultTogether alone: a group-based polarization measurement
Tang, T., Ghorbani, A., Squazzoni, F., & Chorus, C. G. (2021) · Quality & Quantity · doi:10.1007/s11135-021-01271-y · Cited by 9
“…interest in polarization, whether from the public or from scholars, mainly comes from the fear of its (15)PW = 2 (2T − Gini) (m∕ ) (16)PW = 2 m (B −W) 1 3 destructive effect on social harmony and stability (e.g., Layman and Carsey 2002; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005; Fisher and Mattson 2009).”
BackgroundPanza, L., & Swee, E. L. (2022) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2022.11.032 · Cited by 9
The Economics of Political Borders
Spolaore, E. (2012) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.4337/9780857930163.00007 · Cited by 22
Cultural Diversity, Conflict, and Economic Development
Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal‐Querol, M. (2013) · Handbook of the economics of art and culture · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-53776-8.00018-0 · Cited by 9
Self-citationState history, historical legitimacy and modern ethnic diversity
Bleaney, M., & Dimico, A. (2016) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.03.001 · Cited by 13
“…and La Ferrara, 2005; Posner, 2004; Collier and Hoeffler, 1998, Busse and Hefeker, 2007; Aisen and Veiga, 2013; Menkyna, 2014) and civil war (Fearon and Laitin, 2003; Collier and Hoeffler, 2004; Hegre and Sambanis, 2006; Wimmer et al. 2009; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005; Esteban and Ray, 2008).”
BackgroundMethodPolitical and Linguistic Identities in an Ethnic Conflict
Smirnova, A., & Iliev, R. I. (2016) · Journal of Language and Social Psychology · doi:10.1177/0261927x16643559 · Cited by 9
McDonnell, E. M. (2016) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414015626441 · Cited by 9
“Some argue diversity’s negative effects are greatest in states with midrange diversity where a sizable minority confronts a modest-sized majority (Caselli & Coleman, 2006; Horowitz, 1985; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005), operationalized as 45% to 90% of the population (Collier & Hoeffler, 2004).”
BackgroundGlobalisation and Conflict: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
Chisadza, C., & Bittencourt, M. F. (2018) · International development policy/Revue internationale de politique de développement · doi:10.4000/poldev.2706 · Cited by 9
Linguistic Assimilation and Ethno-religious Conflict
Dasgupta, I. (2017) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-49442-5_12 · Cited by 9
Regional inequality of economic outcomes and opportunities in Ethiopia: A tale of two periods
Argaw, B. A. (2017) · Working Paper Series · doi:10.35188/unu-wider/2017/342-4 · Cited by 9
“Formula The four measures of ethnic diversity are Fractionalization = 1 - ∑n i=1 P 2 i Polarization = 1 - ∑n i=1 ( 0.5− Pi 0.5 )2 where Pi is the proportion of individuals who belong to group i and n is the number of groups.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialA Comment on: “State Capacity, Reciprocity, and the Social Contract”by Timothy Besley
Papaioannou, E. (2020) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta18028 · Cited by 9
Jetter, M., Mahmood, R., Parmeter, C. F., & Hassan, A. R. (2020) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105907 · Cited by 9
Identifying the Unique Polarization Index: A Mean‐Preserving Axiomatic Approach
Geng, D. (2012) · Journal of Public Economic Theory · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9779.2012.01562.x · Cited by 9
External kin, economic disparity and minority ethnic group mobilization
Han, E., O’Mahoney, J., & Paik, C. (2013) · Conflict Management and Peace Science · doi:10.1177/0738894213501762 · Cited by 11
“The situation may be especially prone to conflict if there is ethnic polarization involved (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundRetirement planning for dictators: what happens to outgoing dictators?
Tanaka, S. (2015) · International Relations of the Asia-Pacific · doi:10.1093/irap/lcv010 · Cited by 9
Godefroy, R., & Klein, N. A. (2018) · Economic Inquiry · doi:10.1111/ecin.12584 · Cited by 9
“…estimations that use measures of ethnic, religious, and linguistic fractionalization (F) and polarization (P) presented in Alesina et al. (2003) ([1] in the table), Desmet, Ortuno-Ortin, and Wacziarg (2012) ([2] in the table), and Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005a, 2005b) ([3] in the table).”
BackgroundImmigration, diversity and institutions
Roupakias, S., & Dimou, S. (2021) · Kyklos · doi:10.1111/kykl.12266 · Cited by 9
“To account for this possibility, we alternatively measure diversity using the polarization index, which is computed as follows (see, e.g., Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005; Bove and Elia, 2016): 𝑝𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑡 = 1 −∑(0.5 − 𝜋𝑗𝑐)2𝜋𝑐𝑗0.”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialHow ethnic structure affects civil conflict: A model of endogenous grievance
Kustov, A. (2015) · Conflict Management and Peace Science · doi:10.1177/0738894215613035 · Cited by 11
“The Reynal-Querol index of ethnic polarization is computed as follows: RQ ¼ 4 PN i¼1 p 2 i (1 pi) where pi is a proportion of group i and N is the number of groups (Garcia-Montalvo et al., 2005: 798).”
BackgroundMethodVu, T. V. (2021) · Kyklos · doi:10.1111/kykl.12276 · Cited by 9
“…with poor governance, higher corruption, reduced economic growth and distorted public spending (Alesina et al., 1999; Grafton et al., 2002; Alesina et al., 2003; Alesina & Ferrara, 2005; Banerjee et al., 2005; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005a; Grafton et al., 2007; Desmet et al., 2012; Gören, 2014).”
BackgroundResultDETERMINANTES DE LA CALIDAD INSTITUCIONAL DE LOS PAÍSES
Pastó, J. A., & Fabro, G. (2008) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 9
Basedau, M., Vüllers, J., & Strüver, G. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1780205 · Cited by 9
The Colonial Origins of Civil WarPreprint
Djankov, S., & Reynal‐Querol, M. (2007) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1003337 · Cited by 11
“Persson (2004) shows that the form of democracy, rather than democracy “per se”, has important consequences for the adoption of structural policies that promote growth.”
BackgroundSelf-citationHow Ethnic Diversity Affects Economic DevelopmentPreprint
Gören, E. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2254008 · Cited by 9
“The potential causes of ethnic civil wars have been analyzed extensively in Collier (2001), Reynal-Querol (2002) and Garcia-Montalvo & Reynal-Querol (2005b).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialPolitical Polarization and the Size of GovernmentPreprint
Lindqvist, E., & Östling, R. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1265448 · Cited by 9
Determinants of Revolt: Evidence from Survey and Laboratory DataPreprint
Klaus Abbink, A., & Pezzini, S. (2005) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 9
REsCape: An Agent-Based Framework for Modeling Resources, Ethnicity, and ConflictPreprint
Bhavnani, R., Miodownik, D., & Nart, J. (2008) · SSRN Electronic Journal · Cited by 10
Diversity and ConflictPreprint
Arbatlı, C. E., Ashraf, Q. H., Galor, O., & Klemp, M. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3170276 · Cited by 24
Boyce, J. K. (2011) · Bloomsbury Publishing Plc eBooks · doi:10.5040/9781849665872.ch-006 · Cited by 9
Economic Development and Political Violence in EthiopiaPreprint
Woldesenbet, E., Gebreluel, G., & Bedasso, B. E. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4113502 · Cited by 9
Pastoral conflicts and (dis)trust: evidence from Nigeria using an instrumental variable approach
Tuki, D. (2026) · Environment and Development Economics · doi:10.33774/apsa-2023-863p3 · Cited by 8
The legacies of war for Ukraine
Munroe, E., Nosach, A., Pedrozo, M., Guarnieri, E., Riaño, J. F., Tur-Prats, A., & Caicedo, F. V. (2023) · Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/epolic/eiad001 · Cited by 16
The long-term consequences of power-sharing for ethnic salience
Juon, A. (2024) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/00223433241227759 · Cited by 8
“Some scholars have linked them to political violence directly (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005; Rothchild and Roeder, 2005) or indirectly via democratic (Dahl, 1971; Lijphart, 1977) and economic challenges (Easterly and Levine, 1997; Habyarimana et al., 2009).”
Off the books, away from the market: Clan culture and female labor force participation
Huang, F. Y., Ye, H., & Zhang, J. (2024) · China Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102312 · Cited by 9
Herrera, H., Morelli, M., & Nunnari, S. (2021) · Quarterly Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1561/100.00019136 · Cited by 10
Measuring social diversity in economic literature: An overview for cross‐country studies
Esquinas, E. M. B., & Caraballo, M. Á. (2021) · Journal of Economic Surveys · doi:10.1111/joes.12484 · Cited by 14
State formation, social unrest and cultural distance
Lecce, G., Ogliari, L., & Orlando, T. (2022) · Journal of Economic Growth · doi:10.1007/s10887-022-09205-5 · Cited by 7
Religiöse Diversität und Sozialintegration im internationalen Vergleich
Traunmüller, R. (2013) · KZfSS Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie · doi:10.1007/s11577-013-0233-6 · Cited by 8
Neumann, R., & Graeff, P. (2013) · Journal of Mathematical Sociology · doi:10.1080/0022250x.2011.597014 · Cited by 8
“Collective action problems of organizing are regarded from this (Reynal-Querol 2004; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSocial divisions and institutions: assessing institutional parameter variation
Isaksson, A. (2010) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-010-9632-7 · Cited by 8
“To investigate whether ethnic polarization, rather than fractionalization, matters for the association between institutions and income I use the measure of Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) (based on Esteban and Ray 1994).”
MethodInstitutions, information, and commitment: the role of democracy in conflict
Bang, J., & Mitra, A. (2016) · Defence and Peace Economics · doi:10.1080/10242694.2016.1142745 · Cited by 8
Hindu-Muslim Violence in India: A Postscript from the Twenty-First Century
Mitra, A., & Ray, D. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-98848-1_14 · Cited by 8
Jones, D. B., & Zhan, C. (2020) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2020.03.012 · Cited by 8
Social progress around the world: trends and convergence
Peiró‐Palomino, J., Picazo‐Tadeo, A. J., & Ríos, V. O. (2022) · Oxford Economic Papers · doi:10.1093/oep/gpac022 · Cited by 11
Ethnic polarization orderings and indices
Chakravarty, S. R., & Maharaj, B. (2011) · Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination · doi:10.1007/s11403-011-0084-z · Cited by 8
Diversity, Conflict and Growth: Theory and Evidence
Schneider, G., & Wiesehomeier, N. (2010) · Diversity · doi:10.3390/d2091097 · Cited by 8
“It is true, as viewed by Montalvo and Reynal-Querol [5], that in Latin America a considerable part of the population, mainly indigenous people, is affiliated with, for example, Catholicism while they are practicing what is betoken as Syncretism.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialLindberg, J.-E. (2008) · Cited by 8
Yamamura, E. (2016) · Journal of Applied Economics · doi:10.1016/s1514-0326(16)30002-2 · Cited by 8
Is Language Destiny? The Origins and Consequences of Ethnolinguistic Diversity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Cuesta, B. D. L., & Wantchekon, L. (2016) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-137-32505-1_19 · Cited by 8
Churchill, S. A., Madhoo, Y. N., & Nath, S. (2019) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2019.1646880 · Cited by 8
“Lower levels of trust associated with ethnic fractionalization also tend to reinforce animosity between groups, and thus promote hatred, tensions and conflict (Glaeser 2005; Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSocial Cleavages and Civil War Onset
Scarcelli, M. (2013) · Ethnopolitics · doi:10.1080/17449057.2013.835516 · Cited by 8
“Nor is it sufficient to explore the direct relationship between heterogeneity and conflict (see Sambanis, 2001; Fearon & Laitin, 2003; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundDuclos, J. (2007) · L Actualité économique · doi:10.7202/016401ar · Cited by 10
Cortez, A. L., & Kim, N. (2012) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 8
Taxation and the Quality of Institutions: Asymmetric Effects on FDI
Fatica, S. (2010) · Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich) · Cited by 8
State Fragility, Rent Seeking and Lobbying: Evidence from African DataPreprint
Asongu, S. A., & Kodila‐Tedika, O. (2014) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2493357 · Cited by 8
“Also, economists have connected ethnic diversity with important economic phenomena like investment, growth, or the quality of government (Easterly & Levine, 1997; Alesina et al., 2003; La Porta et al., 1999; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005).”
BackgroundLong-run effects of the Spanish inquisition
Vidal-Robert, J. (2014) · Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick) · doi:10.82444/warw.33685621 · Cited by 8
National Borders, Conflict and Peace
Spolaore, E. (2009) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w15560 · Cited by 8
Brockhoff, S., Krieger, T., & Meierrieks, D. (2012) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2045987 · Cited by 8
“Polarization may signal politico-economic conflicts over scarce resources and the prevalence of economic discrimination, where related grievances (the desire to change or conserve this very discrimination) may turn into terrorist violence (e.g., Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005; Piazza, 2011).”
Beyond Zeroes and Ones: The Intensity and Dynamics of Civil Conflict
Chaudoin, S., Peskowitz, Z., & Stanton, C. (2014) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w20258 · Cited by 8
Measuring Politically-relevant Identity, With and Without GroupsPreprint
Marquardt, K. L. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3804776 · Cited by 8
Inequalities and IdentitiesPreprint
Reddy, S. G., & Jayadev, A. (2008) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1162275 · Cited by 9
Keese, A. (2015) · BRILL eBooks · doi:10.1163/9789004307353 · Cited by 7
Ethnic Diversity, Ethnic Polarization, and Incarceration Rates: A Cross-National Study
Marier, C. J., & Cochran, J. K. (2022) · Justice Quarterly · doi:10.1080/07418825.2022.2063753 · Cited by 7
“The RQ polarization index formula from Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) is expressed as RQ POLARIZATION ¼ 1 XN i¼1 :5 Sij :5 2 sij where sij is the share of group i (i¼ 1 … N) in country j. Immigrant threat is measured using the percentage of a country’s residents who are foreign-born, as…”
MethodEconomic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the dos Españas
García-Uribe, S., Mueller, H., & Sanz, C. (2024) · The Journal of Economic History · doi:10.1017/s0022050724000044 · Cited by 7
Discrimination in post-conflict settings: Experimental evidence from Colombia
Unfried, K., Diaz, M. I., & Restrepo-Plazaz, L. M. (2022) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105877 · Cited by 4
Cultural conflicts and wellbeing in Africa
Kouladoum, J. M., Maiport, M. D. O., & Ndinga, M. M. A. (2023) · Sustainable Development · doi:10.1002/sd.2614 · Cited by 8
Ethnic fractionalisation, migration and growth
Schüler, D., & Weisbrod, J. (2009) · Empirical Economics · doi:10.1007/s00181-009-0313-7 · Cited by 7
Does cultural diversity help or hinder entrepreneurs? Evidence from eastern Europe and central Asia
Nikolova, E., & Simroth, D. (2013) · Cited by 7
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND SEIGNIORAGE: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS
Elbahnasawy, N. G., & Ellis, M. A. (2015) · Economic Inquiry · doi:10.1111/ecin.12298 · Cited by 7
Taking it Personally: the Effect of Ethnic Attachment on Preferences for Regionalism
Ricart‐Huguet, J., & Green, E. D. (2017) · Studies in Comparative International Development · doi:10.1007/s12116-017-9240-3 · Cited by 7
Kingshott, R. P. J., Sharma, P. K., Hosie, P. J., et al. (2018) · Asia Pacific Journal of Management · doi:10.1007/s10490-018-9581-0 · Cited by 7
“…ethnicity has been shown to be quite divisive (or 9 polarizing) across a wide range of contexts in the literature (e.g. Photiadis & Biggar, 1962; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005; Watkins & Ferrara, 2005), hence we contend that it could manifest in the views held by individuals about a FTA if…”
BackgroundBeyond the average: Ethnic capital heterogeneity and intergenerational transmission of education
Chakraborty, T., Schüller, S., & Zimmermann, K. F. (2019) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2019.04.004 · Cited by 7
Impact of cultural diversity on local labor markets. Evidence from Greece's “age of mass migration”
Roupakias, S., & Dimou, S. (2019) · Manchester School · doi:10.1111/manc.12301 · Cited by 7
Religion, rulers, and conflict
Coşgel, M. M., Miceli, T. J., & YILDIRIM, S. (2023) · Journal of Economic Growth · doi:10.1007/s10887-023-09228-6 · Cited by 7
“3 For the association between ethnic polarization and civil conflicts, see Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) and Esteban et al.”
BackgroundThreat of taxation, stagnation and social unrest: Evidence from 19th century sicily
Lax-Martinez, G., Rohner, D., & Saia, A. (2022) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2022.08.007 · Cited by 7
Decomposing changes in income polarization by population group: what happened during the crisis?
Ricci, C. A., & Scicchitano, S. (2021) · Economia Politica · doi:10.1007/s40888-021-00218-8 · Cited by 7
Caruso, R., & Echevarria-Coco, J. (2022) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/00223433221116657 · Cited by 7
Network diffusion of competing behaviors
Hsiao, Y. (2021) · Journal of Computational Social Science · doi:10.1007/s42001-021-00115-x · Cited by 7
“For example, the literature on polarized societies indicates that segmented societies—where networks are highly transitive—tend to intensify polarization [10, 20, 50].”
BackgroundL’instabilité politique et ses déterminants : un réexamen empirique
Eggoh, J. C., & Kobbi, H. (2022) · Revue française d économie · doi:10.3917/rfe.214.0219 · Cited by 7
Dynamics of group grievances from a global cohesion perspective
Abbas, H. S. M., Xu, X., & Sun, C. (2023) · Socio-Economic Planning Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.seps.2023.101606 · Cited by 7
Ananta, A., Arifin, E. N., Purbowati, A., et al. (2023) · Journal of Population Research · doi:10.1007/s12546-023-09304-z · Cited by 7
“Their findings on the negative economic impact of ethnic diversity among African countries have led many studies to go on to examine the link between ethnic diversity and economic growth (Alesina et al., 2003; Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005; Masela, 2013; Gören, 2014; and Bove & Elia, 2017).”
BackgroundA longitudinal examination of collaboration diversity among communication scholars: 1990–2023
Xu, S., Jitkajornwanich, K., David, P., Park, H.-J., Zhao, Y., Adu, J., & Chumthong, T. (2024) · Journal of Communication · doi:10.1093/joc/jqae037 · Cited by 8
Ethnic Distribution, Effective Power and Conflict
Kovačič, M., & Zoli, C. (2018) · Social Choice and Welfare · doi:10.1007/s00355-021-01317-y · Cited by 7
“First, like in Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005), we define the distances between groups using a discrete rather than a continuous metric.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialNatural Resources, Social Conflict, and Poverty Trap
Fiaschi, D. (2014) · The MIT Press eBooks · doi:10.7551/mitpress/9780262026895.003.0004 · Cited by 8
ECOLOGY, TRADE, AND STATES IN PRE-COLONIAL AFRICA
Fenske, J. E. (2014) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1111/jeea.12042 · Cited by 19
Ethno-national conflict and its management
Woods, E. T., Schertzer, R., & Kaufmann, E. (2011) · Commonwealth and Comparative Politics · doi:10.1080/14662043.2011.564469 · Cited by 7
“…not fully conclusive, there is a strong argument that ethno-national heterogeneity (manifesting as a lack of congruence between ethnic, national and state boundaries) significantly increases the probability of violent conflict breaking out (see Montalvo & Reynal-Querol, 2005; Gurr et al., 2008: 9).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal-Querol, M.
- Affiliations
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
- The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433.
- ORCID
- Montalvo, José G
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2005-06-01
- Volume
- 95
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 796-816
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1975264861
- Semantic Scholar
- d34e25710e0f59c77127215c237c4e3a5a19820b
- Cited by
- 1,386
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 33 · 2025: 63 · 2024: 64 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 97 · 2021: 76 · 2020: 89 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 77 · 2017: 61 · 2016: 70 · 2015: 90 · 2014: 79 · 2013: 80 · 2012: 61
- FWCI
- 145.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Development › Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Keywords
- ethnic fractionalization, ethnic conflict, civil war, ethnic distance, ethnic diversity, economic growth, political instability, corruption, investment, ethnic classification
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-13, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-13 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
