The DOI matches its Crossref record; 187 of the 187 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 12 of the 66 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?
Open accessAbstract
Developing economies have found it hard to use natural resource wealth to improve their economic performance.
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Claims the paper makes
32 Own interpretation · 27 Sources not found · 17 No basis given · 7 Partly supported · 7 No full text of the sources · 6 Not checked yet · 4 Own result · 3 Supported · 1 Couldn’t confirm · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“and cross-country empirical work confirms that resource exports are associated with smaller tradable goods sectors.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Dutch Disease
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Brahmbhatt, Canuto, and Vostroknutova (2010) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The repository description of Dealing with Dutch Disease (no page given) says that oil or mineral discoveries could be accompanied by contraction or stagnation in manufacturing and agriculture. It presents this as a theoretical possibility, not as a finding confirmed by cross-country empirical work about resource exports and the size of tradable goods sectors. (LLM, conf=0.77)
- Partly supportedcites Ismail (2010) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The indexed paper summary (section labeled “24 Field Citation Ratio”; no page given) reports a cross-country analysis finding that permanent oil-price increases negatively affect manufacturing output in oil-exporting countries. That supports the claim’s direction, but the evidence concerns oil-price shocks and manufacturing, not resource exports generally or the size of all tradable-goods sectors. (LLM, conf=0.87)
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“Brahmbhatt, Canuto, and Vostroknutova (2010) find that countries in which the resource sector accounts for more than 30 percent of GDP have a nonresource tradable sector 15 percentage points lower than the norm”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Dutch Disease
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Brahmbhatt, Canuto, and Vostroknutova (2010) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available copy’s description of the note (no section or page given) says Dutch disease could involve contraction or stagnation of manufacturing and agriculture. Searches for the 30-percent GDP threshold and 15-percentage-point difference found no passage reporting that comparison; the available text does not verify the attributed finding. (LLM, conf=0.69)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Could not verify
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“This distortion can have an intertemporal dimension, with the current government spending heavily on its favored group and passing on too little capital (or too high levels of debt) to the next government (Alesina and Tabellini 1990;Alesina and Drazen 1991).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Alesina and Tabellini 1990 source
The Introduction says each party represents a different constituency with preferences over public goods. Section 3 says the parties spend on different goods, while Section 5 explains that a government can leave debt for its successor to repay and reports a deficit bias. The paper supports the debt alternative in the citing sentence; it does not need to establish the separate capital alternative. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not matchedcites Alesina and Drazen 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Amongst resource-rich countries, Chile's fiscal constitution has been largely successful (Frankel 2011).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Frankel 2011
Section II says Chile’s structural budget rule has succeeded in implementing countercyclical fiscal policy and describes its fiscal institutions as a particularly striking success among commodity exporters. The case-of-Chile section also reports that the rule enabled savings during the copper boom and fiscal easing during the 2008–09 recession. (LLM, conf=0.93)
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Besley and Persson (2008) find that an increase in commodity prices (a measure of resource revenues exogenous to each country) significantly increases the incidence of conflict.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Besley and Persson (2008) source
The Data section describes world-market commodity price changes as exogenous variation in resource rents and interprets a higher export price index as a positive shock to those rents. The Empirical results section reports a statistically significant increase in civil-war probability with higher non-oil export prices. The paper also finds effects for import prices, through a different mechanism. (LLM, conf=0.91)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“the positive relationship between resource abundance and levels of corruption is established in a number of studies (for example, Ades and Di Tella 1999; Leite and Weidman 1999).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Ades and Di Tella 1999 source
- Partly supportedcites Leite and Weidman 1999 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract says natural resource abundance helps determine a country’s level of corruption, and the Corruption Regression reports higher corruption associated with fuel and ores. But that section also reports lower corruption associated with agriculture and food, so the paper does not establish an unqualified positive relationship across all natural resources. Our copy provides no page number for these passages. (LLM, conf=0.86)
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“while Ismail (2010) finds that a 10 percent increase in a measure of oil revenues is associated with an average 3.4 percent fall in value added across manufacturing.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Dutch Disease
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Ismail (2010) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The study summary in our copy (section labeled “24 Field Citation Ratio”; no page given) says that permanent oil-price increases negatively affect manufacturing output in oil-exporting countries. It does not give the claimed 10 percent increase in oil revenues or the average 3.4 percent fall in manufacturing value added; searches for those figures returned no matching passage. (LLM, conf=0.82)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Research suggests that the level and composition of exports is particularly important for economic growth ( Jones and Olken 2008; Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrick 2005)”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Dutch Disease
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Jones and Olken 2008 source
- Partly supportedcites Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrick 2005 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 3, “Growth accelerations: basic results” (page unavailable), reports that export ratios rise during growth accelerations, supporting the point about the level of exports. It does not address the composition of exports, and it cautions that the observed relationship does not establish causality. (LLM, conf=0.87)
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“In Nigeria, theft of crude oil (known as “bunkering”) is estimated to run at 10-15 percent of total production (Katsouris and Sayne 2013; Council on Foreign Relations 2015).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Discovery, Development, and Rent Capture
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Katsouris and Sayne 2013
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Council on Foreign Relations 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, saving in these low-income resource-rich economies has generally been low.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Facts
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 48
- Probably not a substantial claim. 12
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Important later contributions include Mehlum, Moene, and Torvik (2006) who interact resource abundance with institutional quality and find the negative effect of resource-richness on growth to be present (and larger) only for countries with poor institutional quality, the break-even point being around the institutional quality of Botswana.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Facts
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Mehlum, Moene, and Torvik (2006) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 4 (Testing; page unavailable) reports a positive resource-abundance–institutional-quality interaction and says the resource curse weakens as institutional quality rises, disappearing above an index threshold of about 0.93. Section 1 (Introduction; page unavailable) describes Botswana as resource-rich with strong growth and a favorable corruption score, but does not place its institutional-quality index near that threshold. The Botswana break-even comparison is therefore unsupported by our copy. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Dube and Vargas (2013) add an interesting twist: using regional data for Colombia, they find that higher oil prices increased conflict while increases in coffee prices had the opposite effect, possibly by increasing the value of devoting labor time to coffee production.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Dube and Vargas (2013) source
Section 5.3 reports that rising oil prices increased attacks in oil regions, specifically paramilitary attacks, while rising coffee prices reduced violence in coffee-intensive areas. The Introduction supports the proposed labor mechanism: it reports that falling coffee prices lowered wages more in coffee-intensive municipalities and identifies opportunity cost as the more important channel for coffee. (LLM, conf=0.93)
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Other tradable activities will be displaced, partly as factors of production are drawn into resource extraction, and partly as they are employed to meet increased demand for nontradables arising from domestic spending of resource revenues (Corden and Neary 1982).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Dutch Disease
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Corden and Neary 1982 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
In ‘Effects of the Boom on Outputs,’ the paper describes manufacturing contracting as labour moves into the booming energy sector and as increased demand for services contributes to a real appreciation. But its later analysis (p. 837) says that, under some factor-intensity configurations, the spending effect can instead raise manufacturing output and overall de-industrialisation is not assured. The claim’s unqualified ‘will be displaced’ overstates that result. (LLM, conf=0.86)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
In the paper
“An example is the Zambian copper industry which, following an unsuccessful privatization, was resold with a fiscal regime that was equivalent to an effective royalty rate of 0.6 percent, one-tenth that of comparable mining projects (Adam and Simpasa 2011).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Discovery, Development, and Rent Capture
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Adam and Simpasa 2011
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“When governments have sought to invest savings from resource revenues, the results have often been inefficient in both design and implementation.There are numerous white elephant projects, and resource-rich countries perform poorly on the IMF's index of public investment management efficiency (Dabla-Norris, Brumby, Kyobe, Mills, and Papageorgiou 2012).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Outcomes
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Dabla-Norris, Brumby, Kyobe, Mills, and Papageorgiou 2012
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Third, the growth performance of all the resource-rich economies as a group has been generally poor, although a few countries have done well-for example, Botswana, Malaysia, and Chile.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Facts
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Botswana's Pula Fund has been successful in managing both long-run investments and stabilization.Spending by Botswana's government has been de-linked from current resource revenues, and revenues that do not meet government spending and investment criteria are invested abroad through the fund (IMF 2012b).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Outcomes
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites IMF 2012b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Amongst resourcerich developing economies, measures of volatility (for example, the coefficient of variation of export revenues) typically exceed those of nonresource-rich countries by 50 percent for mineral-rich countries and more than 100 percent for oil-rich countries.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Facts
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“It was not until the 2000s (a period of rising commodity prices) that resource-rich countries grew faster, although even then per capita growth was similar in both groups of countries (IMF 2012b).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Abstract Using natural resources to promote economic development sounds straightforward.A country has subsoil assets such as hydrocarbons and minerals, which it seeks to transform into surface assets-human and physical capital-that can be used to support employment and generate economic growth.Such assets should be particularly valuable for capital-scarce developing countries, especially as revenues from their sale accrue largely in foreign exchange and can supplement the otherwise limited fiscal capacity of their governments.In practice, this transformation has proved hard.Indeed, few developing economies have been successful with this approach, and economic growth has generally been lower in resource-rich developing countries than in those without resources.It was not until the 2000s (a period of rising commodity prices) that resource-rich countries grew faster, although even then per capita growth was similar in both groups of countries (IMF 2012b).The term "resource curse" was coined (Auty 1993) to capture the underperformance of resource-rich economies, drawing attention to the weak performance of Bolivia, Nigeria, and Venezuela, amongst others.Successful use of nonrenewable natural resources involves multiple stages.Resource deposits have to be discovered and developed.If and when this is done, resource revenues are divided between investors, government, and other claimants.How are the terms of this division decided, and how are such revenues utilized by the recipients?There is likely to be intense pressure for current spending rather than investment in assets that will be productive over time.Investment in the domestic economy needs to be directed to high social return projects, but these may be difficult to identify and to implement.Placing the revenues in offshore funds may be appropriate for capital-rich economies, but does little to boost economic development in a capital-poor country.Ultimately, it is the private sector that will create the sustainable jobs and economic growth, so resource management has to be done in a manner that will support private sector investments.But even if revenues are effectively utilized, resource exports can appreciate the exchange rate and prove damaging to other tradable sectors of the economy-the so-called "Dutch disease" effect.An economy with substantial exports of natural resources can become overly dependent on a single volatile source of income, and this volatility can destabilize the macroeconomy.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites IMF 2012b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the oil sector, the formation of such national oil companies occurred largely in the 1970s, and such firms now control 90 percent of world oil reserves and over 70 percent of production.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Discovery, Development, and Rent Capture
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Some of them have attained world-class efficiency levels, like Saudi-Aramco and Petronas of Malaysia.Others have failed to provide effective management, in some cases leading to dramatic declines in output, like the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and Zambian Consolidated Copper Mines.McPherson (2010) details further country experiences.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Discovery, Development, and Rent Capture
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites McPherson (2010)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Looking just at developing countries, there has been a recent improvement in the relative performance of resource-rich economies, with average per capita growth rates of resource-rich developing economies equalling those of nonresource rich in the 2000s, after being 1 percent per year lower in the 1990s.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Facts
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“These fiscal terms turned out to be unsustainable and were revised in 2008, breaching the fiscal stability assurances that had been given, but no action was brought against the government (Daniel and Sunley 2010).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Discovery, Development, and Rent Capture
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Daniel and Sunley 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“The use of auctions is now widespread (particularly for oil, less so for hard-rock minerals), but there are many instances of rights having been awarded in ways that are nontransparent and possibly corrupt, and thus not ending up with the best-qualified investor.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Discovery, Development, and Rent Capture
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites The Economist 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Of the twelve “prospectively” resource-rich countries, with new discoveries that are yet to be fully developed, nine are in Africa.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Facts
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As is apparent, this measure of adjusted national saving is strongly negative for a large number of resource-rich low-income economies, and there is a negative correlation between resource rents and the savings rate.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Facts
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 25 of these countries, resources make up more than three-quarters of exports, and in 20 of them resources provide more than half of government revenues.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Facts
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Placing the revenues in offshore funds may be appropriate for capital-rich economies, but does little to boost economic development in a capital-poor country.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Abstract Using natural resources to promote economic development sounds straightforward.A country has subsoil assets such as hydrocarbons and minerals, which it seeks to transform into surface assets-human and physical capital-that can be used to support employment and generate economic growth.Such assets should be particularly valuable for capital-scarce developing countries, especially as revenues from their sale accrue largely in foreign exchange and can supplement the otherwise limited fiscal capacity of their governments.In practice, this transformation has proved hard.Indeed, few developing economies have been successful with this approach, and economic growth has generally been lower in resource-rich developing countries than in those without resources.It was not until the 2000s (a period of rising commodity prices) that resource-rich countries grew faster, although even then per capita growth was similar in both groups of countries (IMF 2012b).The term "resource curse" was coined (Auty 1993) to capture the underperformance of resource-rich economies, drawing attention to the weak performance of Bolivia, Nigeria, and Venezuela, amongst others.Successful use of nonrenewable natural resources involves multiple stages.Resource deposits have to be discovered and developed.If and when this is done, resource revenues are divided between investors, government, and other claimants.How are the terms of this division decided, and how are such revenues utilized by the recipients?There is likely to be intense pressure for current spending rather than investment in assets that will be productive over time.Investment in the domestic economy needs to be directed to high social return projects, but these may be difficult to identify and to implement.Placing the revenues in offshore funds may be appropriate for capital-rich economies, but does little to boost economic development in a capital-poor country.Ultimately, it is the private sector that will create the sustainable jobs and economic growth, so resource management has to be done in a manner that will support private sector investments.But even if revenues are effectively utilized, resource exports can appreciate the exchange rate and prove damaging to other tradable sectors of the economy-the so-called "Dutch disease" effect.An economy with substantial exports of natural resources can become overly dependent on a single volatile source of income, and this volatility can destabilize the macroeconomy.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For a capital-abundant country, the usual answer is to accumulate foreign assets in a sovereign wealth fund, such as Norway's Pension Fund.For a capital-scarce country, the priority is to build domestic assets-including human as well as physical capital.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Principles
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Direct distribution to citizens may reduce the risk of corruption and improve the quality of investments undertaken, although the link from citizen dividends to efficient investment is questionable in a country with poorly developed financial institutions.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Principles
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“One is that the efficient path of domestic investment will, quite generally, be different from the actual path of revenue, often building up more slowly and being less volatile.This suggests the need for a “parking fund”-that is, a way of placing revenues offshore until they can be used efficiently in the domestic economy.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Principles
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Scarcity not just of capital as a whole, but of public funds in particular, suggests that government investment in infrastructure and in public health and education systems should offer high social returns.However, scarcity of funds does not automatically imply that high-return projects are immediately available.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Principles
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Mongolia established a scheme, but it was scaled back dramatically in 2012 after exaggerated election promises led to transfers that exceeded resource earnings (Yeung and Howes 2015).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Outcomes
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Yeung and Howes 2015 source
plaindirectSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“A study by van der Ploeg and Poelhekke (2009) decomposes the effect of resource dependence on growth into a direct and a volatility effect, finding that the direct effect is positive but often dominated by the negative indirect effect through volatility.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Facts
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites van der Ploeg and Poelhekke (2009) source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Citizen dividend schemes are rare in developing countries.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Transfers of resource revenues to the private sector are often achieved through highly inefficient mechanisms, with fuel subsidies being the most notorious example in which oil exporters are among the highest subsidisers.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Outcomes
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, government can smooth spending, both across generations and also in response to short-run business cycle fluctuations, mitigating the risk of resource-induced macroeconomic instability.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Principles
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The case for government control is derived from the scarcity of public funds in developing countries and the need to increase public investment in human and infrastructure capital.Resource revenues can fund such investments without imposing taxes that will be distortionary and can be hard to administer in low-income countries.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Principles
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Initial discovery and development of a natural resource deposit requires investment by firms with considerable technical expertise.In developing countries, these firms are generally foreign-owned.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Discovery, Development, and Rent Capture
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At least some fraction of public sector saving will be perceived to ultimately accrue to the private sector-for example, leading to expectations of lower future taxes or higher pensions-which can lead to changes in private sector behavior that may undermine government policy.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Outcomes
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: At least some fraction of public sector saving is perceived by the private sector as ultimately accruing to it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the process through which licenses are allocated can raise difficulties.Ideally, this process is transparent, competitive, and can secure a high fraction of the rent for the state.Auctions will often be useful, but are not appropriate in all cases: for example, where there is a single dominant bidder.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Discovery, Development, and Rent Capture
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An economy with substantial exports of natural resources can become overly dependent on a single volatile source of income, and this volatility can destabilize the macroeconomy.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Abstract Using natural resources to promote economic development sounds straightforward.A country has subsoil assets such as hydrocarbons and minerals, which it seeks to transform into surface assets-human and physical capital-that can be used to support employment and generate economic growth.Such assets should be particularly valuable for capital-scarce developing countries, especially as revenues from their sale accrue largely in foreign exchange and can supplement the otherwise limited fiscal capacity of their governments.In practice, this transformation has proved hard.Indeed, few developing economies have been successful with this approach, and economic growth has generally been lower in resource-rich developing countries than in those without resources.It was not until the 2000s (a period of rising commodity prices) that resource-rich countries grew faster, although even then per capita growth was similar in both groups of countries (IMF 2012b).The term "resource curse" was coined (Auty 1993) to capture the underperformance of resource-rich economies, drawing attention to the weak performance of Bolivia, Nigeria, and Venezuela, amongst others.Successful use of nonrenewable natural resources involves multiple stages.Resource deposits have to be discovered and developed.If and when this is done, resource revenues are divided between investors, government, and other claimants.How are the terms of this division decided, and how are such revenues utilized by the recipients?There is likely to be intense pressure for current spending rather than investment in assets that will be productive over time.Investment in the domestic economy needs to be directed to high social return projects, but these may be difficult to identify and to implement.Placing the revenues in offshore funds may be appropriate for capital-rich economies, but does little to boost economic development in a capital-poor country.Ultimately, it is the private sector that will create the sustainable jobs and economic growth, so resource management has to be done in a manner that will support private sector investments.But even if revenues are effectively utilized, resource exports can appreciate the exchange rate and prove damaging to other tradable sectors of the economy-the so-called "Dutch disease" effect.An economy with substantial exports of natural resources can become overly dependent on a single volatile source of income, and this volatility can destabilize the macroeconomy.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Bilateral investment treaties offer investors protection against breach of contract.Where such treaties do not exist, countries can offer contract-specific stabilization agreements that guarantee terms (or equivalent value), the credibility of which can be reinforced by offering international arbitration and waiving sovereign immunity.Some of these agreements have been breached (as in the Zambian”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Discovery, Development, and Rent Capture
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Daniel and Sunley 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Nigeria's Excess Crude Account has played some role in stabilizing the economy, but its effectiveness has been undermined by failure of many state governments to ratify the federal Fiscal Responsibility Act that set up the fund; by absence of sound legal foundation; and by “ad hoc disbursements” (IMF 2011).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Outcomes
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites IMF 2011
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirectSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“The scale of the problem is indicated by Collier (2007), who estimates that the value of known subsoil assets per square kilometer in Africa is just one-quarter of those remaining in OECD countries, which seems to be most likely a consequence of lack of exploration rather than resource-barren geology in Africa.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Discovery, Development, and Rent Capture
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier (2007)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These upstream stages of resource management are complex, and the resource endowments of many developing countries remain underexplored and underexploited.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Discovery, Development, and Rent Capture
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Gauthier and Zeufack (2011) study the experience of Cameroon, which was initially praised for setting up an offshore (and extra-budgetary) account to manage oil revenues, but from which about half of Cameroon's total oil revenue subsequently disappeared.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Outcomes
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Gauthier and Zeufack (2011)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Added to this, investors may be deterred by risk of hold-up.Investments are sunk and long-lived, and governments, present and future, will have an incentive to change contractual and fiscal terms once the investment is in place.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Discovery, Development, and Rent Capture
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Economists' usual characterization of this approach is the permanent income hypothesis which implies that, following a discovery of an exhaustible natural resource, consumption should increase by the expected annuity value of the discovery, with revenues in excess of this being invested to build a stock of assets sufficient to finance the consumption increment in perpetuity.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Principles
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The overall record on stabilization funds has been poor, with multiple episodes of boom and bust.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, investments in discovery and extraction of nonrenewable resources are inherently risky due to geological and price uncertainty.Investors are further deterred by uncertainty surrounding the local economic, institutional, and political environment.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Discovery, Development, and Rent Capture
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In Kazakhstan, the government acted prudently, saving around one-third of oil revenue in a sovereign wealth fund.But the private sector ran up foreign debt of a similar magnitude, leading to a severe crash in 2007-2008 (Esanov and Kuralbeyeva 2011).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Outcomes
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Esanov and Kuralbeyeva 2011
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirectSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In many other countries control is diffuse, often with national resource companies engaging in off-budget quasi-fiscal activities, such as running fuel subsidy or even social welfare programs.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Each is militarily incapable of seceding from the 35 others but, by reducing central authority, the fracture has also diminished the effectiveness of resource governance-for example, by limiting the implementation of the national Fiscal Responsibility Act.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
plaindirectSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, to play this role effectively the finance ministry must have control of incoming revenues, along with sufficient political will and power to resist competing demands.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“As case studies (Klare 2001) and statistical analyses (Fearon and Laitin 2003;Collier and Hoeffler 2004) show, it can provide both the motive and the means for insurgency, while also providing funds for the government (or those with access to government funds) to equip itself to retain power.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Klare 2001
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fearon and Laitin 2003 source
- Not matchedcites Collier and Hoeffler 2004
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While actual conflict can be devastating, the threat of conflict also matters in many situations where conflict does not actually occur.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Robinson and Torvik (2005), and Robinson, Torvik, andVerdier (2005, 2006) show that it is possible that a substantial fraction of resource revenues are dissipated this way and, if public employment is of lower social value than the alternative, real income can be reduced by a resource windfall.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Robinson and Torvik (2005)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Robinson, Torvik, andVerdier (2005, 2006)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“the simplest of which is a model in which groups are powerful enough to obtain public spending for their projects even though the projects yield low social returns (Velasco 1999; Tornell and Lane 1999).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Velasco 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Tornell and Lane 1999 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Ross (2012) shows that the democratic transitions that affected many countries in the 1980s and 1990s left most oil states untouched, a finding that is not due to simply the high incidence of autocracy in the Middle East.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Ross (2012)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A centralized system of financial control and authority can help with fiscal discipline, too.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Resource rents alter the leader's probability of staying in power, and hence the economic, political, and military strategies that are pursued (Caselli and Cunningham 2009).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Caselli and Cunningham 2009 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There is usually little public or even official knowledge of the actual scale of resource revenues, and there is often a tendency to overestimate wealth and ignore trade-offs.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In Malaysia, past experience of ethnic conflict led the government to commit to inclusive growth (discussed further in the following section).”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Causes
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This changing structure of the economy has a counterpart in the balance of payments, as higher resource exports lead to some combination of higher imports or lower nonresource exports together with (depending on elasticities) an appreciation of the real exchange rate.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Dutch Disease
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In itself, structural change in an economy is not necessarily a problem, but it can have a negative effect on real incomes if it interacts with market failures.”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Dutch Disease
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
Resource exports can appreciate the exchange rate and damage other tradable sectors of the economy (Dutch disease).
“But even if revenues are effectively utilized, resource exports can appreciate the exchange rate and prove damaging to other tradable sectors of the economy-the so-called “Dutch disease” effect.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Subsoil assets are property of the state in almost all countries except the United States.
“Subsoil assets are property of the state in almost all countries except the United States.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Many resource-rich economies have weak governance that can be further undermined by political forces unleashed by the prospect of resource wealth.
“Yet many resource-rich economies have weak governance that can be further undermined by the political forces that are unleashed with the prospect of resource wealth.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The private sector creates sustainable jobs and economic growth.
“Ultimately, it is the private sector that will create the sustainable jobs and economic growth, so resource management has to be done in a manner that will support private sector investments.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Resource revenues are risky, volatile, and time-limited.
“One is the technical difficulty of handling resource revenues that are risky, volatile, and time-limited.”
The paper relies on this without support.
At least some fraction of public sector saving is perceived by the private sector as ultimately accruing to it.
“At least some fraction of public sector saving will be perceived to ultimately accrue to the private sector-for example, leading to expectations of lower future taxes or higher pensions-which can lead to changes in private sector behavior that may undermine government policy.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Many low and middle-income countries experience a stark contrast between the hopes raised by their natural resource endowments and the everyday reality of deprivation that many people face.”
From Reconsidering Sovereignty, Ownership and Consent in Natural Resource Contracts: From Concepts to Practice (2018) · cites this paper as Venables (2016)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Facts
“Natural resource exports as % of total exports (2006-2010 average) Natural resource fiscal revenue as % of fiscal revenue (2006-1000) average)”
§ Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has > Concluding Comments and Future Prospects
“Share of Exports and Fiscal Revenue from Natural Resources (average 2006-2010)”
Citations
Cites
Filders, R. (1992) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/0169-2070(92)90130-2 · Cited by 16,765
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
FEARON, J. D., & LAITIN, D. D. (2003) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055403000534 · Cited by 7,366
Greed and grievance in civil war
Collier, P. D. (2004) · Oxford Economic Papers · doi:10.1093/oep/gpf064 · Cited by 6,295
Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth
Sachs, J., & Warner, A. (1995) · doi:10.3386/w5398 · Cited by 4,461
Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy
Corden, W. M., & Neary, J. P. (1982) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/2232670 · Cited by 3,298
The bottom billion: why the poorest countries are failing and what can be done about it
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“Therefore, economic growth and technological progress in ‘core areas’ of the world-system occurs at the expense of the peripheries (Jorgenson and Kick, 2003; Wallerstein, 1974), i.e. growth is fundamentally a matter of appropriation (Hornborg, 2016).”
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Real exchange rate policies for economic development
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Natural resource abundance, resource industry dependence and economic green growth in China
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Metadata
- Authors
- Venables, A. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Venables, Anthony J.
- ORCID
- Venables, Anthony J.
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2016-02-01
- Volume
- 30
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 161-184
- ISSN
- 0895-3309 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2267106946
- Cited by
- 634
- References
- 65
- Citations by year
- 2026: 58 · 2025: 64 · 2024: 61 · 2023: 98 · 2022: 63 · 2021: 65 · 2020: 58 · 2019: 67 · 2018: 41 · 2017: 35 · 2016: 18
- FWCI
- 136.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Journal of Economic Perspectives (publishedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Social Sciences › Development › Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Development
- Keywords
- natural resource wealth, resource curse, developing countries, resource endowment, fiscal system, revenue management, government spending, investment decision-making, economic performance, Botswana, Malaysia
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-09-30, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-09-30 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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