The DOI matches its Crossref record; 113 of the 114 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 11 of the 40 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries
Open accessAbstract
Of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals articulated by the United Nations, number one is the elimination of extreme poverty by 2030. While future economic growth should continue to reduce poverty, it will not solve the problem by itself; thus, there is a potentially important role for national-level transfer programs that assist poor families in developing countries. Such programs are often run by developing country governments. Many countries have implemented transfer programs that seek to target beneficiaries: that is, to identify who is poor and then to restrict transfers to those individuals. Some people have begun to advocate for “universal basic income” programs, which dispense with trying to identify the poor and instead provide transfers to everyone. We begin by considering the universal basic income as part of the solution to an optimal income-taxation problem, focusing on the case of developing countries, where there is limited income data and inclusion in the formal tax system is low. We examine how the targeting of transfer programs is conducted in these settings, and provide empirical evidence on the tradeoffs involved between universal basic income and targeted transfer schemes using data from Indonesia and Peru—two countries that run nationwide transfer programs that are targeted to the poor. We conclude by linking our findings back to the broader policy debate on what tools should be preferred for redistribution, as well as the practical challenges of administ…
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Claims the paper makes
64 Own interpretation · 17 Own result · 14 Sources not found · 7 No basis given · 6 No full text of the sources · 5 Partly supported · 4 Supported · 4 Own method · 3 Not checked yet · 2 Couldn’t confirm · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“3) as emphasized by Saez (2002), it is not the case that a universal basic income has no labor supply distortions, since there is still a tax on labor income, and in particular adding the universal basic income to the tax schedule requires adjusting the tax schedule elsewhere.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Universal Basic Income and the Tax Schedule
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Saez (2002) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract (p. 2) describes an equity–efficiency trade-off, labor-supply responses to income transfers, and guaranteed income that is taxed away at high rates. This supports the point that transfers can involve labor-supply distortions, but the readable passages do not specifically discuss a universal basic income or say that adding one requires adjusting the tax schedule elsewhere. (LLM, conf=0.77)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: A universal basic income program is fully financed by a progressive income tax schedule.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Given that a universal basic income would need to be financed through taxation, one can recast universal basic transfers as a particular feature of a tax schedule, as described by Saez (2002) and illustrated by Figure 1.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Universal Basic Income and the Tax Schedule
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Saez (2002) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract (p. 2) describes income-transfer programs through optimal tax formulas, including a negative income tax with guaranteed income support; the figures on p. 40 are labeled transfer and tax schedules. This supports treating transfers as part of a tax schedule, but the readable passages do not specifically describe a universal basic transfer or its tax financing. (LLM, conf=0.78)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Using data from Colombia, Camacho and Conover (2011) show that over time as the formula became known, there was substantial bunching of reporting right below the eligibility cutoff.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Camacho and Conover (2011) source
The section on alternative explanations reports a sharp discontinuity at the eligibility threshold in a Colombian municipality after 1998; Figure B2 identifies that as the period after the score algorithm was released to municipal officials. The Empirical section also compares concentrations of survey scores just below and above the threshold, supporting the description of bunching. (LLM, conf=0.86)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“While more sophisticated prediction methods (like more flexible prediction equations, machine learning methods, and so on) can improve on these predictions (McBride and Nichols 2016), the fundamental tradeoff between inclusion and exclusion error that we document here remains.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > The Inclusion versus Exclusion Error Tradeoff
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites McBride and Nichols 2016 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The citation is attached to the assertion that more sophisticated methods can improve predictions; the sentence presents the inclusion–exclusion tradeoff as the citing authors’ own finding. The indexed passages provide repository metadata and an abstract, but no passage from the paper’s full text establishes the prediction-improvement assertion. Searches for machine-learning improvements and inclusion–exclusion error found no decisive full-text passage. (LLM, conf=0.72)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The Indonesian BLT program and the Peruvian Juntos program each target roughly one-third of the population.
- Could not verify
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“we found that citizens vastly preferred the community based-approach to a data-based proxy-means test.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Community-Based Targeting
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Alatas, Banerjee, Hanna, Olken, and Tobias 2012 source
The Introduction reports that community targeting produced higher satisfaction and 60 percent fewer complaints than the proxy-means test. Section IV.C (Satisfaction) also reports that surveyed individuals were much more satisfied with the community method and more likely to consider it appropriate. These findings support the paraphrase of a strong preference, though the study measured satisfaction rather than asking respondents to choose directly between methods. (LLM, conf=0.92)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“A substantial fraction of households who are eligible for a government benefit program do not enroll in the program.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Moffitt (2003) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Summaries of the Chapters (p. 9) report a declining Medicaid participation rate among eligible children, which supports the existence of eligible nonparticipants. Our copy does not establish that a substantial fraction of eligible households fail to enroll across government benefit programs. (LLM, conf=0.74)
- Not matchedcites Currie (2006a)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Furthermore, there was no detectable elite capture (Alatas, Banerjee, Hanna, Olken, and Tobias 2012).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Community-Based Targeting
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Alatas, Banerjee, Hanna, Olken, and Tobias 2012 source
The Introduction states that the experiment found no evidence of elite capture in the community treatment. Section V, “Elite Capture,” reports little evidence of capture, including no significant difference in targeting error rates between whole-community and elite-only meetings. (LLM, conf=0.95)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“In Alatas et al. (2012), we showed that communities appear to target based on earning potential, rather than actual earnings.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Community-Based Targeting
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Alatas et al. (2012) source
Section VIII.B reports suggestive evidence that communities may target on ability to earn rather than actual earnings. It finds that households with characteristics associated with lower earning potential were ranked poorer conditional on actual consumption, consistent with the citing sentence’s qualified wording. (LLM, conf=0.88)
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- Supported
In the paper
“We found no systematic evidence that any of these programs reduced labor supply.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Banerjee, Hanna, Kriendler, and Olken 2017 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In both Indonesia and Peru, to reach 80 percent of the intended beneficiaries (exclusion error of 20 percent), the government would need to tolerate an inclusion error of between 22 and 31 percent.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > The Inclusion versus Exclusion Error Tradeoff
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The Indonesian BLT program and the Peruvian Juntos program each target roughly one-third of the population.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find that for cutoff levels in an intermediate range, in which inclusion errors were roughly 30-40 percent, it is common to find that horizontal equity is violated about 20 percent of the time in Peru and 30 percent of the time in Indonesia.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The transfer level to eligible households steeply falls as you allow more people into the program.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Narrowly versus Widely Targeted Programs with a Fixed Budget
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The Indonesian BLT program and the Peruvian Juntos program each target roughly one-third of the population.
In the paper
“These taxes combined with import duties (which are also likely to fall on the rich), make up about 42 percent of tax revenue for low-and middle-income countries (according to the most recent World Bank World Development Indicators), with the rest of tax revenue in these countries coming from consumption taxes, which are typically proportional to consumption.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > What about Poor Countries, Where Tax Systems Are Less Developed?
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites World Bank World Development Indicators
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For most developing economies, a substantial universal basic income would need to be financed via domestic taxation, because official development assistance is a small fraction of government budgets.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Universal Basic Income and the Tax Schedule
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As before, social welfare will increase discontinuously for the universal basic income because no targeting costs are incurred in this program.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The Indonesian BLT program and the Peruvian Juntos program each target roughly one-third of the population.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Further reductions in exclusion error come at the cost of much higher inclusion error.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > The Inclusion versus Exclusion Error Tradeoff
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The Indonesian BLT program and the Peruvian Juntos program each target roughly one-third of the population.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In Indonesia, the socially optimal program calculated in this way targets about 19 percent of the population, with inclusion error of 7.4 percent and exclusion error of 58.2 percent”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Per year, this translates to an additional 0.8 and 1.7 percent of the overall transfer budget in Indonesia and Peru, respectively.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Figure 4 Tradeoffs between Inclusion Error and Exclusion Error by Varying Eligibility Cutoff (exclusion error is the portion of intended beneficiaries excluded; inclusion error is the portion not intended to be beneficiaries who are included)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The Indonesian BLT program and the Peruvian Juntos program each target roughly one-third of the population.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“narrowly targeted programs-those focused on distributing large benefits-per-capita to the poorest of the poorappear to achieve much higher utility levels than less narrowly targeted programs, including but not limited to a universal basic income.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The typical fit we found of these regressions (the R 2 ) is between 0.53 and 0.66”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Predicting Income with Proxy Measures
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the Appendix, we compare curves setting y * equal to 0.75× the government's official poverty line, which we call the “extreme poor”; 1.0× the government's official poverty line; and 1.5× the government's official poverty line, or the “near poor.”The tradeoff is similar in all three cases.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Summing Up
plainn = 3- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The same is true for education: those with high education, and hence high earning power, are ranked as wealthier than their actual income alone would imply.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Community-Based Targeting
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, widows-who have lower earning potential than households headed by men-appear to be more likely to be ranked as poor, even conditional on their actual income level.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Community-Based Targeting
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our evidence from Indonesia and Peru shows that existing targeting methods in developing countries, while imperfect, appear to deliver substantial improvements in welfare compared to universal programs, because they can transfer much more on a per-beneficiary basis to the poor as compared with universal programs.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Summing Up
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Yet, despite the relatively small costs, we show that selfselection yielded substantially improved screening; the beneficiaries selected by the application-based method were about 20 percent poorer than those selected through automatic enrollment.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Alatas et al. (2016)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, it will not raise everyone's after-tax income by that same amount, because to finance the universal basic income out of income taxes, marginal tax rates have to increase for someone.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Universal Basic Income and the Tax Schedule
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: A universal basic income program is fully financed by a progressive income tax schedule.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The universal basic income acts as an intercept shifter, raising post-tax income at y = 0.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Universal Basic Income and the Tax Schedule
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: A universal basic income program is fully financed by a progressive income tax schedule.
In the paper
“While future growth should continue to reduce poverty, it will not solve the problem by itself-both because a substantial amount of poverty remains even in rapidly growing countries, and because sustained economic growth over decades of the type seen in China is the exception, not the norm ( Jones and Olken 2008).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Jones and Olken 2008 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, targeting may introduce distortions.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the taxexempt region, everyone receives the same net transfer regardless of whether they are in the 5th or 70th percentile of income.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > What about Poor Countries, Where Tax Systems Are Less Developed?
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: A universal basic income is financed entirely through income taxes (individual or corporate).
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A proxy-means test has an inherent lack of transparency, because eligibility is determined based on a weighted sum of many different variables, which would be hard for ordinary citizens to understand even if the weights were public information.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the proxy-means test formula (essentially the weight that the coefficients in the regression would give to each asset) are kept secret because if they are known, households (perhaps in cooperation with better-informed agents) may strategically misreport or hide assets to make sure they fall under the cutoff.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Jensen (2016) documents that the share of employment for which people pay any income taxes (and therefore for which the government observes income) rises substantially with real per-capita national GDP.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > What about Poor Countries, Where Tax Systems Are Less Developed?
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Jensen (2016)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“From this perspective, the tradeoffs involved in adding a universal basic income to an income tax schedule, therefore, depend on how the rest of the income tax schedule is adjusted to satisfy the government budget constraintboth in terms of overall redistribution and potential distortionary effects from the increased marginal tax rates that introducing a universal basic income will necessitate.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Universal Basic Income and the Tax Schedule
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: A universal basic income program is fully financed by a progressive income tax schedule.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“1) it can make use of income data collected through the tax system;”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Universal Basic Income and the Tax Schedule
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: A universal basic income program is fully financed by a progressive income tax schedule.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, as inclusion error increases, the overall amount of funding available for transfers may increase.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, administrative costs are not a large driver of the benefits level, especially in comparison to the level of inclusion error one chooses, which is why the discontinuity at the universal basic income point is visually imperceptible in Figure 4B (although you will be able to see it in Figure 5).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Figure 4 Tradeoffs between Inclusion Error and Exclusion Error by Varying Eligibility Cutoff (exclusion error is the portion of intended beneficiaries excluded; inclusion error is the portion not intended to be beneficiaries who are included)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The Indonesian BLT program and the Peruvian Juntos program each target roughly one-third of the population.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, to finance a universal basic income of a size similar to the case in Figure 1, one would need to increase marginal tax rates substantially more for those relatively few people inside the tax net.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > What about Poor Countries, Where Tax Systems Are Less Developed?
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: A universal basic income is financed entirely through income taxes (individual or corporate).
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Imperfect targeting using various proxy measures for income leads to both inclusion errors (giving the transfer to those who are not poor) and exclusion errors (failing to deliver the transfer to poor individuals who slip through the cracks in the targeting protocol).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“(As a robustness check, we also calculated social welfare with ρ = 1 and ρ = 5, and the conclusions are qualitatively similar.)”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The evidence suggests that greater transparency of the lists of eligible beneficiaries may be important to effective implementation of a proxy-means test-based scheme.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Even programs that appear somewhat badly targeted could still dominate a universal basic income.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For programs where the income cutoff for providing benefits is near-zero, horizontal equity violations are (mechanically) close to zero, because almost no households receive the program.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A universal basic income financed through a combination of an income and consumption tax will look closer to a combination of Figures 1 and 2.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > What about Poor Countries, Where Tax Systems Are Less Developed?
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although universal basic income programs distribute the same value of transfer to everyone, including the very rich, if they are financed through proportional or progressive taxation, they can still result in a substantial redistribution to the poor.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In countries with large numbers of people outside the tax net, any attempt to target resources toward the poorest of the poor requires using an alternative data collection approach beyond the income tax system.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > What about Poor Countries, Where Tax Systems Are Less Developed?
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: A universal basic income is financed entirely through income taxes (individual or corporate).
In the paper
“As the elasticity between the total budget and the number of beneficiaries increases, universal transfers become more attractive (Klasen and Lange 2016).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Klasen and Lange 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“targeting could be an effective mechanism in improving overall social welfare, even with high levels of targeting error.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because predictions of income, of course, happen with error, targeted systems based on a proxy-means test will feature both inclusion and exclusion errors.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > What about Poor Countries, Where Tax Systems Are Less Developed?
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Violations of horizontal equity are also mechanically zero for universal basic income: by definition, if all households receive the transfer, then all households are treated the same.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“political support for redistribution may be much higher if everyone gets a”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Gelbach and Pritchett 2002 source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, it is very difficult for citizens to verify that a proxy-means test scheme is being implemented properly.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Perhaps ironically, a more accurate proxy-means test formula, with fewer errors, may actually induce more labor supply distortions, since fewer errors in the proxy-means formula will imply that some households face a steeper effective tax rate over some range.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If the total budget for the program is fixed, then the transfer given per-person falls as we move to the right on this curve.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Narrowly versus Widely Targeted Programs with a Fixed Budget
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The Indonesian BLT program and the Peruvian Juntos program each target roughly one-third of the population.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, the size of the relative errors will also depend on how frequently the government collects asset data from households and how much churn in and out of poverty occurs over time.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Household income status changes over time.
- Rests on an assumption: Governments conduct targeting surveys infrequently.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Whether these types of programs-universal in nature, but achieving screening through so-called ordeal mechanisms-are better or worse than a universal basic income program depends on whether the substantial utility costs imposed on beneficiaries (like manual labor in the hot sun in order to receive benefits) are outweighed by the cost savings from improved targeting.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: People with better job options tend to avoid manual labor at minimum wage in hot conditions.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While much attention has been given to the incentive effects of the health and education conditions, they can also have targeting effects.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Conditional Transfers
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, application processes need not necessarily always improve targeting.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, having some type of costly take-up can also provide a benefit by helping in the targeting of a program.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The key seems to be that the application process substantially reduces the inclusion errors in the proxy-means test process while holding the official eligibility cutoff c fixed.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“While in principle conditional cash transfers could be either universal (anyone who meets the education and health conditions receives the transfer) or targeted using a proxy-means test, almost all are targeted, most often using proxy-means tests (Fiszbein and Schady 2009).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Conditional Transfers
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fiszbein and Schady 2009
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A universal basic income may reduce the take-up problem, because the government can in theory send the checks to everyone automatically.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“To the extent that communities target based on earning potential rather than actual income, such a system has the potential to be less distortionary not only than a proxy-means test, but also than a regular income tax.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Community-Based Targeting
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“One reason for this is that, in general, richer households are more likely to meet the health and education conditions than the poor.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Conditional Transfers
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Richer households are generally more likely than poor households to satisfy health and education conditions.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless, for many developing countries, our simulations suggest the welfare gains from targeting may be substantial.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Summing Up
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If the cost/benefit of taking up a program is higher for the rich than for the poor, the poor may be more likely to take up the program.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This logic suggests that the benefits from adding self-selection to a proxy-means test system may be largest when the nontarget population is large relative to the target population.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In particular, if some very poor households are unable to meet the conditions, and if the conditions are actually enforced (which they are not always), then some very poor households may be excluded from the programs.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Conditional Transfers
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In this setting, universal transfers cannot be easily taxed back as one moves up the income distribution.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Summing Up
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: In developing countries, incomes are unobserved for very large parts of the population.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“This idea-that having an”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Nichols and Zeckhauser (1982)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Kleven and Kopczuk (2011) source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“A number of randomized trials of these programs, including the original launch of Progresa, showed that these programs led to substantial improvements on the conditioned indicators, both initially (for example, see Behrman and Todd 1999;Gertler 2004) and over the medium term (Behrman, Parker, and Todd 2011; Barham, Macours, and Maluccio 2017; Kugler and Rojas 2018; Cahyadi, Hanna, Olken, Prima, S”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Conditional Transfers
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It also addresses the perception of a horizontal equity problem-from the perspective of the villagers, if it is broadly agreed that person A is poorer than person B, they can ensure that person A receives the transfer.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Community-Based Targeting
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, in the absence of explicit additional restrictions limiting these programs to the poor, the fact that the conditions are more likely to be fulfilled by wealthier households would actually make a universal version of these programs regressive rather than progressive.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Conditional Transfers
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Richer households are generally more likely than poor households to satisfy health and education conditions.
In the paper
“For example, a complicated application form may dissuade those who are less literate or comfortable with bureaucracy from filling it out, leading to worse targeting (Gupta 2017).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Gupta 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, it may be possible to obtain many of the benefits from self-selection with much smaller utility costs to recipients if one marries self-selection to a proxymeans test.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This suggests that even if enrollment is in theory automatic, in practice some take-up decisions and enrollment actions will need to occur.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Most developing countries lack a complete, unduplicated list of all individuals.
- Rests on an assumption: In most developing-country settings, most people lack an address and a bank account.
In the paper
“A key result is that one may want to offer a transfer program to all takers, but with the catch that signing up for the program entails a cost that is differentially costly for the rich.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Kleven and Kopczuk (2011) source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A community targeting approach avoids some key pitfalls of the proxy-means test related to transparency and horizontal equity.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Community-Based Targeting
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Community targeting also has the potential to be less distortionary.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Community-Based Targeting
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The primary downside of these programs is horizontal equity-because targeting is imperfect, there will be a substantial number of poor households who slip through cracks and are excluded.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Summing Up
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 35
- Probably not a substantial claim. 19
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“Bah, Bazzi, Sumarto, and Tobias (2018) calculate that inclusion error in the 2008 Indonesian BLT program was roughly 34 percent, which is higher than the social optimum, but still substantially more narrowly targeted than a universal basic income.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Bah, Bazzi, Sumarto, and Tobias (2018) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available passages (section labeled “117 downloads,” no page number) discuss targeting registries and undercoverage, but do not address the claimed BLT inclusion-error estimate. Searches for “2008 BLT,” “34 percent,” “inclusion error,” “social optimum,” and “universal basic income” found no passage that verifies the estimate or comparisons. (LLM, conf=0.72)
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Could not verify
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“The simulations described in this section (particularly Figures 4 and 5) are broadly similar to other analyses of targeting performance, such as Ravallion (2009), Alatas, Banerjee, Hanna, Olken, and Tobias (2012), and particularly Klasen and Lange (2016).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Comparing Targeted Programs to a Universal Basic Income: Examples from Indonesia and Peru
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Ravallion (2009)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Supportedcites Alatas, Banerjee, Hanna, Olken, and Tobias (2012) source
Section IV.B describes simulations of how different targeting methods affect the poverty rate and poverty gaps across transfer sizes. That makes this paper an example of the targeting-performance analysis identified in the citing sentence. (LLM, conf=0.91)
- Not matchedcites Klasen and Lange (2016)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“He also discusses the conditions under which an optimal income tax schedule is likely to feature a universal basic incomeessentially, when intensive labor supply elasticities (the effects of changes in wages on hours of existing workers) are larger than extensive labor supply elasticities (the effect of changes in wages on hours of workers entering or leaving the labor force).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Universal Basic Income and the Tax Schedule
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Saez (2002) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract (p. 2) says that when labor-supply responses are concentrated on the intensive margin, the optimal program is a negative income tax with substantial guaranteed income. It does not call this a universal basic income, and it says the optimum also depends on the income distribution and the government's redistributive preferences. (LLM, conf=0.84)
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- The authors state this as an assumption: A universal basic income program is fully financed by a progressive income tax schedule.
- Partly supported
In the paper
“Mailing identification cards to the beneficiaries resulted in treatment villages receiving 26 percent more subsidized rice compared to control villages-and reduced "leakage" (rice that, as far as we can tell, was not distributed to anyone) by between 33 and 58 percent.”
- Also stated in: § Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers · plain
“Mailing identification cards to the beneficiaries resulted in treatment villages receiving 26 percent more subsidized rice compared to control villages-and reduced”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Banerjee, Hanna, Kyle, Olken, and Sumarto (2018)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“so while the regressions have a good amount of explanatory power, they also lead to prediction errors: exclusion errors of excluding some who should have been eligible (households with true per-capita consumption below the poverty line) and inclusion errors of including some who should not have been eligible (households with true per-capita consumption above it).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Predicting Income with Proxy Measures
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Indonesia spends roughly $42 million every three years for updating its Unified DataBase, with annual operating costs of about $1.1 million (for further information, see Bah, Nazara, and Satriawan 2015).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Figure 4 Tradeoffs between Inclusion Error and Exclusion Error by Varying Eligibility Cutoff (exclusion error is the portion of intended beneficiaries excluded; inclusion error is the portion not intended to be beneficiaries who are included)
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Bah, Nazara, and Satriawan 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The Indonesian BLT program and the Peruvian Juntos program each target roughly one-third of the population.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Peru spends roughly $10.8 million every three years with annual operating costs of about $1.1 million (Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas 2008).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Figure 4 Tradeoffs between Inclusion Error and Exclusion Error by Varying Eligibility Cutoff (exclusion error is the portion of intended beneficiaries excluded; inclusion error is the portion not intended to be beneficiaries who are included)
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas 2008
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The Indonesian BLT program and the Peruvian Juntos program each target roughly one-third of the population.
- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“for Peru, the socially optimal program targets approximately 18 percent of the population, with inclusion error of 6.4 percent and exclusion error of 52.4 percent.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure 6 shows the resulting measure of horizontal equity and how it varies as we vary the cutoff c, and hence the inclusion error, of the program.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In addition, the community approach did a much better job of identifying those households who selfassessed themselves to be poor, and was only slightly worse at identifying the poor based on per-capita consumption levels.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Community-Based Targeting
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
In the paper
“While they found that the conditions increased school enrollments, they noted that the unconditional program actually had a larger effect on reducing teen pregnancy.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Conditional Transfers
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Baird, McIntosh, and Özler (2011) source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As the figures show, doubling the amount of noise in the proxy-means test formula reduces the implied marginal tax rate for the poor, but it increases the implied marginal tax rate somewhat for the middle-class, who face some probability of receiving the benefits (due to inclusion error) that is declining in their income.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The process for allocating beneficiaries under the community approach was completely public and transparent-unlike the proxy-means test that relies on secret formulas to produce a list of eligible and ineligible households that villagers do not really understand.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Community-Based Targeting
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“But in developing countries, governments do not observe income for the vast majority of the population who work in the informal sector, which typically includes most of the poor.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Jensen (2016)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Deciding how to parse the tradeoffs between inclusion error, exclusion error, and per-capita benefits requires specifying a social welfare function that allows the government to evaluate the social benefits from these different decision rules while holding the overall size of the transfer constant.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On the other hand, a universal basic income is inherently transparent, in the sense that everyone is entitled to a transfer.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, it is necessary to put a weight on inclusion errors, while remembering that just because someone is above the cutoff line does not imply that the social value of them receiving a transfer is zero-indeed, generically such a transfer still has a positive value.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Peru's Juntos is at roughly 6.4 percent inclusion error, according to Robles, Rubio, and Stampini (2015), suggesting that the rate of inclusion error is close to the social optimum as calculated here.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Robles, Rubio, and Stampini (2015) source
hedgedcorrelationalSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As discussed above, a universal basic income program does not eliminate this issue entirely, although the relevant distortions to think about for a universal basic income are the increases in marginal income tax rates required to finance the universal basic income.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both surveys contain the complete set of asset variables used in targeting, as well a measure of actual per-capita consumption for the household, so we can use these datasets to examine targeting accuracy.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Predicting Income with Proxy Measures
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In this setting, the labor supply distortion will involve the implied tax rates from the phase-out of the program for those who are eligible, but will also be smoothed out by the error rate in the formula for those who have equivalent income (or consumption) but are not designated as eligible by the formula.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This perspective suggests that any tax-and-transfer system that has the feature that α(0) > 0 can be thought of as including a universal basic income.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Universal Basic Income and the Tax Schedule
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both datasets are used for targeting in the respective countries.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Predicting Income with Proxy Measures
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Also, these graphs ignore the very real problems of incomplete take-up by those who are deemed eligible, which could affect both the targeted programs and universal transfers.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > The Inclusion versus Exclusion Error Tradeoff
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A universal basic income program is comparatively straightforward to implement-each individual receives a fixed transfer, regardless of income-so the main challenge is to ensure that each person receives the transfer only once.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In this case, one can tax back some of the transfer on households below the income tax exemption through the consumption tax, but the fact that the tax is generally proportional to consumption limits the flexibility in doing so.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > What about Poor Countries, Where Tax Systems Are Less Developed?
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These distortions can, in theory, reduce the quantity of work, either because income effects decrease the incentive to work, or because phasing out the transfer over some income range decreases the after-tax-and-transfer effective marginal wage in that range.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because targeting surveys are infrequent, actual targeting errors may be higher than what we report here, and so one may want to account for this factor in determining where to place the cutoff.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Household income status changes over time.
- Rests on an assumption: Governments conduct targeting surveys infrequently.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is necessary to put a weight on the implied reduction in per-capita transfer to the very poorest that is required to accommodate the increased number of beneficiaries.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“violations of horizontal equity can also lead to significant political problems.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“In Indonesia and Peruthe two countries that we explore in detail below-Jensen reports that 87.5 percent and 79 percent of the countries' employed populations, respectively, have incomes below the tax exclusion thresholds.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > What about Poor Countries, Where Tax Systems Are Less Developed?
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Jensen
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is also necessary to take a stand on how much more the poor value a given dollar than the rich (that is, the difference in marginal utilities for poor and rich), which is given by the curvature on the utility function.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Welfare Comparisons
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Transfer programs using proxy-means tests will have errors in the prediction algorithm-and so they do not treat all people with the same utility of receiving the benefits identically.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the NREGA program, for example, any Indian in a rural area is entitled to 100 days of work at the official minimum wage, and currently about 180 million people per year are employed through the program, making it one of the largest (if not the largest) anti-poverty programs in the world today.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“For example, from 1696 to 1851, Britain imposed a tax on windows, which were easily observable to the taxman-but this led to the construction of buildings with very few windows, low light, and poor ventilation (Glantz 2008;Oates and Schwab 2015).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Normal prediction
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Glantz 2008
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Oates and Schwab 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirectSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Currie (2006b) shows that take-up is incomplete even in programs with universal eligibility in the United States, and a developing country setting raises additional issues.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Currie (2006b)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If households are aware that increasing their income or consumption may reduce their chances of being eligible for benefits, they may reduce their labor supply accordingly, though documenting to what extent this happens empirically remains an important direction for future research.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While some government programs are universal, such as publicly funded primary schools that are free to the families using them, most cash transfer programs today involve some type of targeting mechanism.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Summing Up
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Moreover, an additional benefit is that some of the poorest households may live at the very margins of society and therefore be off the government's radar screen, and may be missed by enumerators trying to do the universal door-to-door screen.When beneficiaries can come to apply, such households can make themselves known.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Conditional cash transfer programs have spread throughout the world, and now are present in more than 63 countries, reaching tens of millions of households annually (Bastagli et al. 2016).”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Conditional Transfers
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Bastagli et al. 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These conditions also may help make the programs more politically palatable, since voters in many countries may prefer that individuals do something in return for receiving aid.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Conditional Transfers
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Community targeting has important limitations-in particular, it does not readily allow for comparisons across locations, and if implemented at scale, could lead households to take actions to hide their income from their neighbors.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Community-Based Targeting
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This is a universal entitlement-there is no poverty screening, and there is a guarantee to everyone who wants the work.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Differential Costs of Take-Up and Self-Targeting
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result, universal transfer programs will give out the same net transfer quite high up the income distribution-and therefore the choice between a universal basic income program and transfers targeted through other means implies a very substantial tradeoff between eliminating exclusion error and giving much smaller transfers on a per-beneficiary basis.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Summing Up
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: In developing countries, incomes are unobserved for very large parts of the population.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The reason was that the unconditional program (unlike the conditional program) still provided cash transfers to girls who dropped out of school anyway and were at the highest risk of pregnancy, and the cash transfers reduced the likelihood of early pregnancy for these girls.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Conditional Transfers
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“More noise in the proxy-means test formula, making the proxymeans formula less predictive, tends to smooth out the phase-out region, and will thus tend to reduce the implicit tax rate that a population faces from a targeted benefit.”
§ Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries ■ > Other Challenges with Targeted Transfers
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The authors state this as an assumption.
A universal basic income program is fully financed by a progressive income tax schedule.
“We assume that a universal basic income program is fully financed by a progressive income tax schedule.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
A universal basic income is financed entirely through income taxes (individual or corporate).
“The discussion thus far has assumed that a universal basic income is financed entirely through income taxes (individual or corporate), which in developing countries are paid primarily by the very top earners.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The Indonesian BLT program and the Peruvian Juntos program each target roughly one-third of the population.
“Both programs target roughly one-third of the population.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Household income status changes over time.
“In reality, income status varies over time.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Governments conduct targeting surveys infrequently.
“Because targeting surveys are infrequent”
The paper relies on this without support.
Most developing countries lack a complete, unduplicated list of all individuals.
“Most developing countries do not have such lists”
The paper relies on this without support.
In most developing-country settings, most people lack an address and a bank account.
“In most developing country contexts, most people do not have an address, let alone a bank account”
The paper relies on this without support.
Richer households are generally more likely than poor households to satisfy health and education conditions.
“in general, richer households are more likely to meet the health and education conditions than the poor”
The paper relies on this without support.
In developing countries, incomes are unobserved for very large parts of the population.
“where incomes are unobserved for very large portions of the population”
The paper relies on this without support.
People with better job options tend to avoid manual labor at minimum wage in hot conditions.
“people with better job options tend to prefer doing something other than performing manual labor for minimum wage in the hot sun”
Citations
Cites
An Exploration in the Theory of Optimum Income Taxation
Mirrlees, J. A. (1971) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.2307/2296779 · Cited by 4,416
Inequality at Work: The Effect of Peer Salaries on Job Satisfaction
Card, D., Mas, A., Moretti, E., & Saez, E. (2012) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.102.6.2981 · Cited by 1,029
Cash or Condition? Evidence from a Cash Transfer Experiment
Baird, S., McIntosh, C., & Ozler, B. (2011) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjr032 · Cited by 834
Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit
Eissa, N., & Liebman, J. B. (1996) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/2946689 · Cited by 823
Welfare, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and the Labor Supply of Single Mothers
Meyer, B. D., & Rosenbaum, D. T. (2001) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/00335530152466313 · Cited by 810
Optimal Income Transfer Programs: Intensive versus Extensive Labor Supply Responses
Saez, E. (2002) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355302760193959 · Cited by 727
Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit
Eissa, N., & Liebman, J. B. (1995) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w5158 · Cited by 717
Gertler, P. (2004) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/0002828041302109 · Cited by 703
Targeting the Poor: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Indonesia
Alatas, V., Banerjee, A., Hanna, R., Olken, B. A., & Tobias, J. (2012) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.102.4.1206 · Cited by 536
Self-citationMeans-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States
Moffitt, R. A. (2003) · doi:10.7208/chicago/9780226533575.001.0001 · Cited by 424
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Glantz Andrew E, 2008, Impact of the Window Duty on Tax Administration and Architecture, 1696
- 1982, American Economic Review, 72, 372
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Universal Basic Income in the United States and Advanced Countries
Hoynes, H. W., & Rothstein, J. (2019) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-080218-030237 · Cited by 260
Universal Basic Income in the Developing World
Banerjee, A., Niehaus, P., & Suri, T. (2019) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-080218-030229 · Cited by 225
Social protection response to the COVID-19 crisis: options for developing countries
Gérard, F., Imbert, C., & Orkin, K. (2020) · Oxford Review of Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/oxrep/graa026 · Cited by 203
Machine Learning and Mobile Phone Data Can Improve the Targeting of Humanitarian Assistance
Aiken, E., Bellue, S., Karlan, D., Udry, C., & Blumenstock, J. E. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04484-9 · Cited by 220
The Power of Social Pensions: Evidence from China's New Rural Pension Scheme
Huang, W., & Zhang, C. (2021) · American Economic Journal Applied Economics · doi:10.1257/app.20170789 · Cited by 189
Metadata
- Authors
- Hanna, R., & Olken, B. A.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2018-11-01
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 201-226
- ISSN
- 0895-3309 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2888797381
- Cited by
- 299
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 46 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 38 · 2023: 41 · 2022: 47 · 2021: 39 · 2020: 26 · 2019: 25 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 46.73
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Journal of Economic Perspectives (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Development › Poverty, Education, and Child Welfare
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Income, Poverty, and Inequality
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic and Fiscal Studies
- Keywords
- universal basic income, anti-poverty policy, extreme poverty, income tax, optimal taxation, targeting of the poor, redistribution, developing countries, Indonesia, Peru, poverty reduction
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-09-28, under version 3 of the claim definition (prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-09-28 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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