Heterogeneity, Mixing, and the Spatial Scales of Mosquito-Borne Pathogen Transmission
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The Ross-Macdonald model has dominated theory for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control for over a century. The model, like many other basic population models, makes the mathematically convenient assumption that populations are well mixed; i.e., that each mosquito is equally likely to bite any vertebrate host. This assumption raises questions about the validity and utility of current theory because it is in conflict with preponderant empirical evidence that transmission is heterogeneous. Here, we propose a new dynamic framework that is realistic enough to describe biological causes of heterogeneous transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens of humans, yet tractable enough to provide a basis for developing and improving general theory. The framework is based on the ecological context of mosquito blood meals and the fine-scale movements of individual mosquitoes and human hosts that give rise to heterogeneous transmission. Using this framework, we describe pathogen dispersion in terms of individual-level analogues of two classical quantities: vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number, R0. Importantly, this framework explicitly accounts for three key components of overall heterogeneity in transmission: heterogeneous exposure, poor mixing, and finite host numbers. Using these tools, we propose two ways of characterizing the spatial scales of transmission--pathogen dispersion kernels and the evenness of mixing across scales of aggregation--and demonstrate the consequences of a model's choice of spatial scale for epidemic dynamics and for estimation of R0, both by a priori model formulas and by inference of the force of infection from time-series data.
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Other frameworks developed more recently show how heterogeneous transmission arises and lay foundations for systematic study of how factors vary across systems.
“Other frameworks have been developed more recently that show how heterogeneous transmission arises and these lay the foundations for a systematic study of the way these factors vary across systems.91,97”
From Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control (2014) · cites this paper as [97]
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Towards a Hybrid Agent-based Model for Mosquito Borne Disease.
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Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control
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Self-citationAnalytical models integrated with satellite images for optimized pest management
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From puddles to planet: modeling approaches to vector-borne diseases at varying resolution and scale
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Economic Analysis of Genetically Modified Mosquito Strategies
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- Authors
- Perkins, T. A., Scott, T. W., Le Menach, A., & Smith, D. L.
- Affiliations
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- Corresponding author
- Perkins, T. Alex
- Venue
- PLoS Computational Biology
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2013-12-12
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- e1003327
- ISSN
- 1553-734X (ISSN-L)
- 1553-7358
- PMC
- PMC3861021
- OpenAlex
- W2072086516
- Cited by
- 130
- References
- 86
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 19 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 9
- FWCI
- 15.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2014-02-28)
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS Computational Biology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Homeland Security
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (49446, OPP52250)
- Bloomberg Family Foundation
- National Institutes of Health (5r01ai069341-05)
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01-AI069341, U19AI089674)
- Fogarty International Center
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
- Keywords
- mosquito-borne pathogens, Ross-Macdonald model, transmission heterogeneity, mixing, vectorial capacity, basic reproduction number, spatial scale, mosquito blood meal, force of infection, epidemic dynamics
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Communicable Diseases, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Insect Vectors, Culicidae, Host-Pathogen Interactions
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