Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 2: Prognostic Factor Research
Open accessAbstract
Prognostic factor research aims to identify factors associated with subsequent clinical outcome in people with a particular disease or health condition.In this article, the second in the PROGRESS series, the authors discuss the role of prognostic factors in current clinical practice, randomised trials, and developing new interventions, and explain why and how prognostic factor research should be improved.The Guidelines and Guidance section contains advice on conducting and reporting medical research.
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In both the diagnostic and prognostic setting, estimates of probabilities are rarely based on a single predictor.
“In both the diagnostic and prognostic setting, estimates of probabilities are rarely based on a single predictor [5].”
From Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD Statement (2015) · cites this paper as [5]
In both diagnostic and prognostic settings, estimates of probabilities are rarely based on a single predictor.
“In both the diagnostic and prognostic setting, estimates of probabilities are rarely based on a single predictor.5”
From Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): The TRIPOD Statement (2015) · cites this paper as [5]
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Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: Part I – Continuous outcomes
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Developing and validating risk prediction models in an individual participant data meta-analysis
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Self-citationImplementing systematic reviews of prognosis studies in Cochrane
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Self-citationPredicting post-traumatic stress disorder treatment response in refugees: multilevel analysis
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Prognostic Factors for Cognitive Decline After Intracerebral Hemorrhage
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Phases of methodological research in biostatistics—Building the evidence base for new methods
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Suicide and self-harm in adult survivors of critical illness: population based cohort study
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- Authors
- Riley, R. D., Hayden, J. A., Steyerberg, E. W., Moons, K. G. M., Abrams, K., Kyzas, P. A., Malats, N., Briggs, A., Schroter, S., Altman, D. G., Hemingway, H., & for the PROGRESS Group
- Affiliations
- University of Birmingham (GB)
- Dalhousie University (CA)
- Erasmus MC (NL)
- University Medical Center Utrecht (NL)
- University of Leicester (GB)
- North Manchester General Hospital (GB)
- Spanish National Cancer Research Centre (ES)
- University of Glasgow (GB)
- BMJ Group (United Kingdom) (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- University College London (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Riley, Richard D.
- ORCID
- Venue
- PLoS Medicine
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2013-02-05
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- e1001380
- ISSN
- 1549-1277 (ISSN-L)
- 1549-1676
- PMC
- PMC3564757
- OpenAlex
- W2100741073
- Cited by
- 823
- References
- 71
- Citations by year
- 2026: 68 · 2025: 72 · 2024: 60 · 2023: 88 · 2022: 95 · 2021: 79 · 2020: 83 · 2019: 44 · 2018: 50 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 37 · 2015: 46 · 2014: 48 · 2013: 15 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 9.57
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- PLoS Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- ENLIGHTEN (Jurnal Bimbingan dan Konseling Islam) (acceptedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (acceptedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePub (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Leicester Research Archive (University of Leicester) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- University of Birmingham Research Portal (University of Birmingham) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Queen Mary University of London
- National Institute for Social Care and Health Research
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
- Wellcome Trust (086091, 086091/Z/08/Z)
- Nova Scotia Health Research Foundation
- Cancer Research UK (C5529)
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NF-SI-0509-10183, NI-SI-0508-10061, RP-PG-0407-10314, NF-SI-0512-10159, RP-PG-0407-10386)
- British Heart Foundation
- University of Birmingham
- Dalhousie University
- Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (918.10.615)
- Center for Translational Molecular Medicine (03O-203)
- Versus Arthritis
- Canadian Institutes of Health Research
- Medical Research Council (G0800808, G0902393)
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
- Economic and Social Research Council
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Keywords
- prognostic factors, prognosis, clinical outcomes, research strategies, randomised trials, intervention development, research reporting, clinical practice
- MeSH terms
- Decision Support Techniques, Health Services Research, Humans, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Research Design, Risk Factors, Biomarkers, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Treatment Outcome, Disease Progression, Risk Assessment, Biomedical Research
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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