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The Personalized Advantage Index: Translating Research on Prediction into Individualized Treatment Recommendations. A Demonstration
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Advances in personalized medicine require the identification of variables that predict differential response to treatments as well as the development and refinement of methods to transform predictive information into actionable recommendations. OBJECTIVE: To illustrate and test a new method for integrating predictive information to aid in treatment selection, using data from a randomized treatment comparison. METHOD: Data from a trial of antidepressant medications (N = 104) versus cognitive behavioral therapy (N = 50) for Major Depressive Disorder were used to produce predictions of post-treatment scores on the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD) in each of the two treatments for each of the 154 patients. The patient's own data were not used in the models that yielded these predictions. Five pre-randomization variables that predicted differential response (marital status, employment status, life events, comorbid personality disorder, and prior medication trials) were included in regression models, permitting the calculation of each patient's Personalized Advantage Index (PAI), in HRSD units. RESULTS: For 60% of the sample a clinically meaningful advantage (PAI≥3) was predicted for one of the treatments, relative to the other. When these patients were divided into those randomly assigned to their "Optimal" treatment versus those assigned to their "Non-optimal" treatment, outcomes in the former group were superior (d = 0.58, 95% CI .17-1.01). CONCLUSIONS: This approach to treatment selection, implemented in the context of two equally effective treatments, yielded effects that, if obtained prospectively, would rival those routinely observed in comparisons of active versus control treatments.
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“The use of waiting list control groups as often the case in psychotherapy research may lead to an overestimation of the effects of treatment. 592,593”
From Time for united action on depression: a Lancet–World Psychiatric Association Commission (2022) · cites this paper as [592]
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“Literature on patient factors predicting treatment response to MBCT is emerging but still in its infancy, particularly compared to predictors of outcome of cognitive therapy (DeRubeis et al., 2014).”
From Adding mindfulness-based cognitive therapy to maintenance antidepressant medication for prevention of relapse/recurrence in major depressive disorder: Randomised controlled trial (2015) · cites this paper as DeRubeis et al., 2014
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“There is now a consensus in the literature that future improvements in outcomes obtained from cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for chronic pain will require research to identify patient and treatment variables that help explain outcomes.”
From Predictors and mediators of outcome in cognitive behavioral therapy for chronic pain: The contributions of psychological flexibility (2021) · cites this paper as DeRubeis et al., 2014
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“The direct utility for treatment allocation arises when combining models for different treatments, as demonstrated in approaches like the personalized advantage index (DeRubeis et al., 2014), or when generating models that explicitly recommend one treatment over others.”
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“At the same time, there has been a growing body of research supporting the need for personalization of treatment based on the patients’ baseline characteristics, through the selection and adaptation of interventions (DeRubeis et al., 2014).”
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“We further conducted leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) analyses using the summary measure as the criteria for model (rank) selection (Foster et al., 2011; DeRubeis et al., 2014).”
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“The difference between the expected outcome in the “optimal” and “non-optimal” groups is termed the Personalized Advantage Index (PAI; DeRubeis et al., 2014).”
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“…medicine approaches could result in substantial benefits for patients, and it might therefore be valuable to investigate further ‘what works for whom’ when it comes to dynamicity-embracing treatments for suicidal youth (Deisenhofer et al., 2024; DeRubeis et al., 2014; Robinson et al., 2018).”
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“Some preliminary findings have shown that specific populations benefit from specific treatments (e.g., Barber & Muenz, 1996; Sotsky et al. 2006; DeRubeis et al. 2014).”
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“One example of a pre-treatment feedback tool is the Personalized Advantage Index (PAI; DeRubeis et al., 2014), which uses large amount of data from previously treated patients to form predictions about what kinds of treatment would benefit that individual the most, and what their symptom…”
Scholten, S., Schemer, L., Herzog, P., Haas, J. W., Heider, J., Winter, D., Reis, D., & Glombiewski, J. A. (2024) · Administration and Policy in Mental Health and Mental Health Services Research · doi:10.1007/s10488-024-01363-5 · Cited by 19
“Once data has accumulated, personalized advantage indexes could be developed to guide personalized treatment selection on a very fine-grained level (DeRubeis et al., 2014).”
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Self-citationEinsatz internetbasierter Verlaufsmessung in der Psychotherapieforschung
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“Die Behandlungsplanung in Bezug auf Setting, Therapeuten und spezifische Interventionsstrategien wird spezifischen Patientencharakteristika angepasst, d.h. personalisiert (DeRu- beis et al. 2014; Lutz undWucherpfennig 2017; Lutz et al. 2017).”
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“estimated benefit that a patient will have from a certain treatment (DeRubeis et al., 2014; Lorenzo-Luaces, DeRubeis, van Straten, & Tiemens, 2017; Lutz, Zimmermann, Müller, Deisenhofer, & Rubel, 2017).”
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“Increasingly, researchers are becoming interested in the use of multiple variables, beyond treatment severity, to optimize treatment allocation (DeRubeis et al., 2014; Lorenzo-Luaces et al., 2017).”
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“Although there is a great need to identify baseline prognostic indicators that can be used to personalize treatment (Cohen & DeRubeis, 2018; DeRubeis et al., 2014), research has elucidated few factors that robustly predict longitudinal course of depression (Kovacs et al., 2016).”
BackgroundWeb-based training for post-secondary student well-being during the pandemic: a randomized trial
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“The inclusion of choice in learning has been prominently featured in clinical MATCH trials, resulting in improved treatment outcomes and more efficient use of health care services (DeRubeis et al., 2014; Huibers et al., 2015; Khan et al., 2019).”
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“A PAI of zero implies no predicted difference in outcome between two treatments and therefore no advantage of one treatment over another for an individual patient.”
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“As the field becomes more aware of the promise of personalized mental health (DeRubeis et al., 2014), it will be ever more important to identify patient characteristics, including diagnostic status, that suggest a likely advantage of one treatment over another, for a given individual.”
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“…focus, or the integration of online treatment elements (Bremer et al., 2023; Bruijniks et al., 2022; Friedl et al., 2020a, 2020b; Held et al., 2023; Hoeboer et al., 2021; Senger et al., 2021), while others compared antidepressants to CBT or placebo (DeRubeis et al., 2014; Webb et al., 2019).”
InfluentialPrediction of individual patient outcomes to psychotherapy vs medication for major depression
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“The original PAI tool used predictive variables to de fi ne “ optimal ” vs “ non-optimal ” treatment for individuals, fi nding a signi fi cant difference in end-of-treatment depression severity scores( d = 0.58) 23 .”
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“…and individual characteristics such as unemployment, low educational attainment and poor interpersonal relationships that are also known to reduce treatment efficacy (DeRubeis et al., 2014; Mojtabai, 2017; Newman, Llera, Erickson, Przeworski, & Castonguay, 2013; Renaud, Russell, & Myhr, 2014).”
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“Second, there are some other studies that compared two active interventions 13 .”
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“There is evidence that depressed individuals have different optimal treatments that depend in part on their personal and clinical characteristics (Cohen & Derubeis, 2018; DeRubeis et al., 2014).”
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“…muestran que se consiguen índices de éxito significativamente mayores cuando los pacientes reciben el tratamiento “óptimo” para su caso concreto (DeRubeis et al., 2014). b. Otra de las vías que se ha ido apuntando tiene que ver con el desarrollo de nuevas aproximaciones al tratamiento que se…”
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“Consequently, researchers have proposed aggregating variables with weaker moderator effects into stronger composite moderators (DeRubeis et al., 2014; Kraemer, 2013).”
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“…mechanisms account for patient improvement in different treatments, researchers must clarify these to further our understanding of the various causes of psychopathology and help us choose the most suitable treatment for each patient presentation (Barber and Muenz, 1996; DeRubeis et al., 2014).”
Exploring personalized psychotherapy for depression: A system dynamics approach
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“To address this, DeRubeis et al. (2014) developed a method called the Personalised Advantage Index (PAI).”
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“About 30% of patients with more severe depression are more likely to respond to ADM than to CBT and a different 30% of the more severely depressed show the opposite pattern (83).”
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“Future studies may also consider combining baseline patient characteristics to create a single strong moderator as a more powerful and precise measure to detect differential treatment responses (Wallace, Frank, & Kraemer, 2013) or consider the use of the Personalized Advantage Index approach (PAI; DeRubeis et al., 201…”
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“The difference score, sometimes referred to in linear interaction models as the personalized advantage index (PAI) [93], quantifies the effect of using a precision treatment assignment rule to determine which patients should receive which treatments.”
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Voorbij het oordeel van de dodo
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Studying Effects and Process in Psychotherapy for Personality Disorders
Caspar, F. (2018) · Psychopathology · doi:10.1159/000487895 · Cited by 8
Zilcha‐Mano, S., Shahar, B., Fisher, H., Dolev‐Amit, T., Greenberg, L. S., & Barber, J. P. (2021) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/s12888-021-03279-y · Cited by 8
TFP Extended: Development and Recent Advances
Clarkin, J. F., Caligor, E., & Sowislo, J. F. (2021) · Psychodynamic Psychiatry · doi:10.1521/pdps.2021.49.2.188 · Cited by 9
Maunder, R., Wiesenfeld, L. A., Rawkins, S., & Park, J. (2016) · Journal of Comorbidity · doi:10.15256/joc.2016.6.66 · Cited by 7
Penedo, J. M. G., Constantino, M. J., Coyne, A. E., Romano, F. M., Westra, H. A., & Antony, M. M. (2019) · Behavior Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.beth.2019.01.007 · Cited by 9
Woolley, M. G., Ramos, A. M., Bowers, E. M., Muñoz, K. F., Petersen, J. M., & Twohig, M. P. (2025) · Journal of Psychiatric Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2025.02.054 · Cited by 7
“For example, the Personalized Advantage Index (PAI; DeRubeis et al., 2014) demonstrates the potential of predictive modeling to allocate individuals to treatments likely to yield the greatest benefit.”
Driessen, E., Efthimiou, O., Wienicke, F. J., Breunese, J., Cuijpers, P. J., Debray, T. P. A., Fisher, D. J., Fokkema, M., Furukawa, T. A., Hollon, S. D., et al. (2025) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0322124 · Cited by 9
“Concep-tually, this evaluation will follow the Personalized Advantage Index approach described by DeRubeis and colleagues [71] in which outcomes of participants who received the treatment recommended by the model are compared against the outcomes of participants who received a non-recommended…”
Self-citationCardona, N. D., Ametaj, A., Cassiello-Robbins, C. F., Wilner, J. G., Olesnycky, O. S., Sauer-Zavala, S. E., Farchione, T. J., & Barlow, D. H. (2023) · The Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease · doi:10.1097/nmd.0000000000001692 · Cited by 6
Abeditehrani, H., Dijk, C., Neyshabouri, M. D., & Arntz, A. R. (2021) · Journal of Behavior Therapy and Experimental Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jbtep.2023.101908 · Cited by 7
Boswell, J. F., Cain, N. M., Oswald, J. M., McAleavey, A. A., & Adelman, R. W. (2017) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/ccp0000219 · Cited by 7
“Consistent with increased calls for personalized medicine (DeRubeis et al., 2014; Fisher & Boswell, 2016; Hamburg & Collins, 2010), a focus on patient variables, for example, facilitates process investigations of what works for whom (Castonguay & Beutler, 2006).”
BackgroundWucherpfennig, F., Boyle, K. S., Rubel, J. A., Weinmann‐Lutz, B., & Lutz, W. (2019) · Psychotherapy Research · doi:10.1080/10503307.2019.1671630 · Cited by 7
“In line with other researchers (Cohen & DeRubeis, 2018; DeRubeis et al., 2014), we assume that the interaction of patient and treatment characteristics may result in differential response patterns.”
ResultHack, L. M. (2021) · American Psychiatric Association Publishing eBooks · doi:10.1176/appi.books.9781615379118 · Cited by 8
Integrating genomic signatures for treatment selection with Bayesian predictive failure time models
Ma, J., Hobbs, B. P., & Stingo, F. C. (2016) · Statistical Methods in Medical Research · doi:10.1177/0962280216675373 · Cited by 7
“For implementation of the RAFT and OTR methods, we used the LOOCV procedure that is similar to that described by Derubeis et al.32 We implemented the proposed BPFT approach by first selecting the optimal number of clusters (rank) via evaluating the 5-year restricted mean survival times (RMSTs) on the training data wit…”
Patient-appraised beneficial moments during inpatient psychiatric treatment
Locher, C., Mansour, R., Koechlin, H., & Büchi, S. (2020) · BMC Health Services Research · doi:10.1186/s12913-020-05617-4 · Cited by 7
“Furthermore, there has been an increased interest on the use of patient characteristics in order to match patients to the treatments that might be most suitable to them [43, 44].”
BackgroundMaking Therapy Widely Available: Clinical Research Triumph or Existential Catastrophe?
Rush, A. J. (2022) · American Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.2021.21121201 · Cited by 7
Rubel, J. A., & Lutz, W. (2017) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-50675-3_13 · Cited by 7
Bossarte, R. M., Ross, E. L., Liu, H., Turner, B., Bryant, C., Zainal, N. H., Puac‐Polanco, V., Ziobrowski, H. N., Cui, R., Cipriani, A., et al. (2023) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2023.01.082 · Cited by 6
Scholten, S., Herzog, P., Glombiewski, J. A., & Kaiser, T. (2024) · Pain · doi:10.1097/j.pain.0000000000003363 · Cited by 9
Myers, C. E., Dave, C. V., Chesin, M. S., Marx, B. P., Hill, L. M. S., Reddy, V., Miller, R. B., King, A. R., & Interian, A. (2024) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2024.104637 · Cited by 7
Uckelstam, C.-J. (2021) · Linköping studies in behavioural science · doi:10.3384/diss.diva-172754 · Cited by 6
Probst, G., Vîslă, A., & Flückiger, C. (2022) · Journal of Anxiety Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.janxdis.2022.102635 · Cited by 6
Hautmann, C., Dose, C., Hellmich, M., Scholz, K., Katzmann, J., Pinior, J., Gebauer, S., Nordmann, L., Metternich-Kaizman, T. W., Schürmann, S., et al. (2023) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2023.104271 · Cited by 6
Bauer‐Staeb, C., Griffith, E., Faraway, J. J., & Button, K. S. (2023) · BJPsych Open · doi:10.1192/bjo.2022.628 · Cited by 6
Advantages of developing clinical practice guidelines using international standards.
Hollon, S. D., & Teachman, B. A. (2019) · Psychotherapy · doi:10.1037/pst0000240 · Cited by 6
Høstmælingen, A., Ulvenes, P., Nissen‐Lie, H. A., Eielsen, M., & Wampold, B. E. (2021) · Journal of Counseling Psychology · doi:10.1037/cou0000572 · Cited by 5
Hall, M., Wagner, A. A., Scherner, P. V., Michael, K. L., Lawyer, G., Lutz, W., & Rubel, J. A. (2022) · PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/8deyj · Cited by 8
Feedback-Informed Psychological Therapy in Practice: The Trier Treatment Navigator (TTN)
Lutz, W., Danilo Moggia, N., Bommer, J., Schaffrath, J., Deisenhofer, A., Eberhardt, S. T., Vehlen, A., Schwartz, B., & Rubel, J. A. (2025) · CBT: science into practice · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-90428-8_2 · Cited by 5
Watson, J. C. (2023) · Psychotherapy Research · doi:10.1080/10503307.2023.2252160 · Cited by 5
“…et al., 2009, 2011a) building links between clients’ pre-therapy characteristics, in-session process, post-session outcome and final therapy outcome (DeRubeis et al., 2014; Watson & Greenberg, 1996a; Wiseman & Rice, 1989); and naturalistic observation and task analysis to study client and…”
Otero, P., Smit, F., Cuijpers, P. J., DeRubeis, R. J., Torres, Á., & Vázquez, F. L. (2015) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2015.09.005 · Cited by 5
Self-citationBredemeier, K., Larsen, S. E., Shivakumar, G., Grubbs, K. M., McLean, C. P., Tress, C. R., Rosenfield, D., DeRubeis, R. J., Xu, C., Foa, E. B., et al. (2022) · Contemporary Clinical Trials · doi:10.1016/j.cct.2022.106850 · Cited by 5
Self-citationvan den Heuvel, B. B., Dekker, J., Daniëls, M., Van, H. L., Peen, J., Bosmans, J. E., Arntz, A. R., & Huibers, M. J. H. (2023) · Trials · doi:10.1186/s13063-023-07309-w · Cited by 6
“Bruijniks SJ, van Bronswijk SC, DeRubeis RJ, Delgadillo J, Cuijpers P, Huibers MJ. Individual differences in response to once versus twice weekly sessions of CBT and IPT for depression.”
MethodWebb, C. A., Hirshberg, M. J., González, O., Davidson, R. J., & Goldberg, S. B. (2023) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/ccp0000842 · Cited by 6
“For example, DeRubeis et al. (2014) developed a predictive algorithm (“Personalized Advantage Index”; PAI), based on pre-treatment patient characteristics, which identified subgroups of individuals who derived greater benefit from CBT vs. an antidepressant medication.”
MethodBremer, S., van Vliet, N. I., van Bronswijk, S. C., Huntjens, R. J. C., de Jongh, A., & van Dijk, M. K. (2023) · Journal of Traumatic Stress · doi:10.1002/jts.22980 · Cited by 5
Compatibility of Components in Cognitive Behavioral Therapies: A Call for Combinatory Congruency
O’Toole, M. S., Mikkelsen, M. B., Arch, J. J., Tauber, N. M., Elkjær, E., & Michalak, J. (2024) · Cognitive and Behavioral Practice · doi:10.1016/j.cbpra.2023.12.006 · Cited by 5
Hall, M., Wagner, A. A., Scherner, P. V., & Rubel, J. A. (2024) · Clinical Psychology & Psychotherapy · doi:10.1002/cpp.70013 · Cited by 9
Metadata
- Authors
- DeRubeis, R. J., Cohen, Z. D., Forand, N. R., Fournier, J. C., Gelfand, L. A., & Lorenzo-Luaces, L.
- Affiliations
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- The Ohio State University (US)
- University of Pittsburgh (US)
- Corresponding author
- DeRubeis, Robert J.
- Venue
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2014-01-08
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- e83875
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3885521
- OpenAlex
- W2079702662
- Cited by
- 509
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 36 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 33 · 2023: 41 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 99 · 2020: 46 · 2019: 51 · 2018: 34 · 2017: 35 · 2016: 26 · 2015: 23 · 2014: 8
- FWCI
- 22.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- D-Scholarship@Pitt (University of Pittsburgh) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- National Institute of Mental Health (2-R01-MH-060998-06, R01MH060998)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pharmacology (medical) › Treatment of Major Depression
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychotherapy Techniques and Applications
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Keywords
- personalized medicine, treatment selection, differential treatment response, prediction of treatment outcome, major depressive disorder, antidepressants, cognitive behavioral therapy, Hamilton Depression Rating Scale, treatment response prediction
- MeSH terms
- Antidepressive Agents, Depressive Disorder, Major, Major Depressive Disorder, Health Planning Guidelines, Humans, Prognosis, Psychiatric Status Rating Scales, Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, Translational Research, Biomedical, Precision Medicine
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