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The Personalized Advantage Index: Translating Research on Prediction into Individualized Treatment Recommendations. A Demonstration
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Advances in personalized medicine require the identification of variables that predict differential response to treatments as well as the development and refinement of methods to transform predictive information into actionable recommendations. OBJECTIVE: To illustrate and test a new method for integrating predictive information to aid in treatment selection, using data from a randomized treatment comparison. METHOD: Data from a trial of antidepressant medications (N = 104) versus cognitive behavioral therapy (N = 50) for Major Depressive Disorder were used to produce predictions of post-treatment scores on the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD) in each of the two treatments for each of the 154 patients. The patient's own data were not used in the models that yielded these predictions. Five pre-randomization variables that predicted differential response (marital status, employment status, life events, comorbid personality disorder, and prior medication trials) were included in regression models, permitting the calculation of each patient's Personalized Advantage Index (PAI), in HRSD units. RESULTS: For 60% of the sample a clinically meaningful advantage (PAI≥3) was predicted for one of the treatments, relative to the other. When these patients were divided into those randomly assigned to their "Optimal" treatment versus those assigned to their "Non-optimal" treatment, outcomes in the former group were superior (d = 0.58, 95% CI .17-1.01). CONCLUSIONS: This approach to treatment selection, implemented in the context of two equally effective treatments, yielded effects that, if obtained prospectively, would rival those routinely observed in comparisons of active versus control treatments.
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“The use of waiting list control groups as often the case in psychotherapy research may lead to an overestimation of the effects of treatment. 592,593”
From Time for united action on depression: a Lancet–World Psychiatric Association Commission (2022) · cites this paper as [592]
In the citing paper
“Literature on patient factors predicting treatment response to MBCT is emerging but still in its infancy, particularly compared to predictors of outcome of cognitive therapy (DeRubeis et al., 2014).”
From Adding mindfulness-based cognitive therapy to maintenance antidepressant medication for prevention of relapse/recurrence in major depressive disorder: Randomised controlled trial (2015) · cites this paper as DeRubeis et al., 2014
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“There is now a consensus in the literature that future improvements in outcomes obtained from cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for chronic pain will require research to identify patient and treatment variables that help explain outcomes.”
From Predictors and mediators of outcome in cognitive behavioral therapy for chronic pain: The contributions of psychological flexibility (2021) · cites this paper as DeRubeis et al., 2014
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Metadata
- Authors
- DeRubeis, R. J., Cohen, Z. D., Forand, N. R., Fournier, J. C., Gelfand, L. A., & Lorenzo-Luaces, L.
- Affiliations
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- The Ohio State University (US)
- University of Pittsburgh (US)
- Corresponding author
- DeRubeis, Robert J.
- Venue
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2014-01-08
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- e83875
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3885521
- OpenAlex
- W2079702662
- Cited by
- 509
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 36 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 33 · 2023: 41 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 99 · 2020: 46 · 2019: 51 · 2018: 34 · 2017: 35 · 2016: 26 · 2015: 23 · 2014: 8
- FWCI
- 22.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- D-Scholarship@Pitt (University of Pittsburgh) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- National Institute of Mental Health (2-R01-MH-060998-06, R01MH060998)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pharmacology (medical) › Treatment of Major Depression
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychotherapy Techniques and Applications
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Keywords
- personalized medicine, treatment selection, differential treatment response, prediction of treatment outcome, major depressive disorder, antidepressants, cognitive behavioral therapy, Hamilton Depression Rating Scale, treatment response prediction
- MeSH terms
- Antidepressive Agents, Depressive Disorder, Major, Major Depressive Disorder, Health Planning Guidelines, Humans, Prognosis, Psychiatric Status Rating Scales, Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, Translational Research, Biomedical, Precision Medicine
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