Multiple Measurements, Elusive Agreement, and Unstable Outcomes in the Study of Regime Change
Open accessThe claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America
Przeworski, A. (1991) · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139172493 · Cited by 3,494 · see citing works
The Politics of Authoritarian Rule
Svolik, M. W. (2012) · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139176040 · Cited by 2,611 · see citing works
Democracy and dictatorship revisited
Cheibub, J. A., Gandhi, J., & Vreeland, J. R. (2009) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-009-9491-2 · Cited by 2,487 · see citing works
Boix, C. (2003) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511804960 · Cited by 2,211 · see citing works
Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set
Geddes, B., Wright, J., & Frantz, E. (2014) · Perspectives on Politics · doi:10.1017/s1537592714000851 · Cited by 1,541 · see citing works
Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946–1986
Maoz, Z., & Russett, B. M. (1993) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.2307/2938740 · Cited by 1,536 · see citing works
Totalitarian and Authoritarian Regimes
Linz, J. J. (2000) · doi:10.1515/9781685850043 · Cited by 1,420 · see citing works
A Complete Data Set of Political Regimes, 1800–2007
Boix, C., Miller, M., & Rosato, S. (2013) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414012463905 · Cited by 1,072 · see citing works
Alvarez, M., Cheibub, J. A., Limongi, F., & Przeworski, A. (1996) · Studies in Comparative International Development · doi:10.1007/bf02719326 · Cited by 969 · see citing works
A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
Goldstone, J. Α., Bates, R. H., Epstein, D., Gurr, T. R., Lustik, M. B., Marshall, M. G., Ulfelder, J., & Woodward, M. R. (2009) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x · Cited by 861 · see citing works
Conceptualizing And Measuring Democracy: Evaluating Alternative Indices
Munck, G. L., & Verkuilen, J. (2002) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414002035001001 · Cited by 859 · see citing works
Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset
Powell, J. M., & Thyne, C. L. (2011) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343310397436 · Cited by 845 · see citing works
Why the Move to Free Trade? Democracy and Trade Policy in the Developing Countries
Milner, H. V., & Kubota, K. (2005) · International Organization · doi:10.1017/s002081830505006x · Cited by 782 · see citing works
Hyde, S., & Marinov, N. (2011) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/mpr040 · Cited by 646 · see citing works
Epstein, D., Bates, R. H., Goldstone, J. Α., Kristensen, I., & O’Halloran, S. (2006) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00201.x · Cited by 578 · see citing works
Brinks, D. M., & Coppedge, M. (2006) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414005276666 · Cited by 514 · see citing works
Democracy from the Outside-In? International Organizations and Democratization
Pevehouse, J. C. W. (2002) · International Organization · doi:10.1162/002081802760199872 · Cited by 494 · see citing works
Democracy, Autocracy, and Expropriation of Foreign Direct Investment
Li, Q. (2009) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414009331723 · Cited by 408 · see citing works
Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Polity Duration, 1800–2000
Gates, S., Hegre, H., Jones, M. P., & Strand, H. (2006) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00222.x · Cited by 393 · see citing works
Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation
Svolik, M. W. (2008) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055408080143 · Cited by 361 · see citing works
Authoritarian regime types revisited: updated data in comparative perspective
Wahman, M., Teorell, J., & Hadenius, A. (2013) · Contemporary Politics · doi:10.1080/13569775.2013.773200 · Cited by 360 · see citing works
Inequality and Democracy: Why Inequality Harms Consolidation but Does Not Affect Democratization
Houle, C. (2009) · World Politics · doi:10.1017/s0043887109990074 · Cited by 358 · see citing works
Economic Determinants of Democracy
Muller, E. N. (1995) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.2307/2096435 · Cited by 325 · see citing works
The Structural Determinants of Democratic Consolidation
Gasiorowski, M. J., & Power, T. J. (1998) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414098031006003 · Cited by 263 · see citing works
Inequality and Democratization: A Contractarian Approach
Ansell, B. W., & Samuels, D. (2010) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414010376915 · Cited by 257 · see citing works
Institutional Design and Democratic Consolidation in the Third World
Power, T. J., & Gasiorowski, M. J. (1997) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414097030002001 · Cited by 252 · see citing works
Authoritarian Institutions and Regime Survival: Transitions to Democracy and Subsequent Autocracy
Wright, J., & Escribà‐Folch, A. (2011) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123411000317 · Cited by 249 · see citing works
Elections and Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes
Donno, D. (2013) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12013 · Cited by 241 · see citing works
The Legacy of Western Overseas Colonialism on Democratic Survival
Bernhard, M., Reenock, C., & Nordstrom, T. (2004) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/j.0020-8833.2004.00298.x · Cited by 237 · see citing works
Democratization and Economic Globalization
Milner, H. V., & Mukherjee, B. (2009) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev.polisci.12.110507.114722 · Cited by 231 · see citing works
A Lexical Index of Electoral Democracy
Skaaning, S.-E., Gerring, J., & Bartusevičius, H. (2015) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414015581050 · Cited by 211 · see citing works
Levitz, P., & Pop-Elecheș, G. (2009) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414009355266 · Cited by 211 · see citing works
An Overview of the Political Regime Change Dataset
Gasiorowski, M. J. (1996) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414096029004004 · Cited by 192 · see citing works
Economic Performance, Institutional Intermediation, and Democratic Survival
Bernhard, M. H., Nordstrom, T., & Reenock, C. M. (2001) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1111/0022-3816.00087 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
Women’s suffrage in the measurement of democracy: Problems of operationalization
Paxton, P. M. (2000) · Studies in Comparative International Development · doi:10.1007/bf02699767 · Cited by 189 · see citing works
Two Modes of Democratic Breakdown: A Competing Risks Analysis of Democratic Durability
Maeda, K. (2010) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1017/s0022381610000575 · Cited by 182 · see citing works
Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?
Burke, P. J., & Leigh, A. (2010) · American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · doi:10.1257/mac.2.4.124 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Testing the Effects of Independent Judiciaries on the Likelihood of Democratic Backsliding
Gibler, D. M., & Randazzo, K. A. (2011) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00504.x · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Kapstein, E. B., & Converse, N. (2008) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511817809 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Starr, H., & Lindborg, C. (2003) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002703252373 · Cited by 141 · see citing works
Casper, G., & Tufiș, C. D. (2003) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/mpg009 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
State capacity and political regime stability
Andersen, D. D. E., Møller, J. Ø., Rørbæk, L. L., & Skaaning, S. (2014) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2014.960204 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Democratic Survival, Peace, and War in the International System
Kadera, K. M., Crescenzi, M. J. C., & Shannon, M. L. (2003) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/1540-5907.00016 · Cited by 132 · see citing works
Modelling Transitions To and From Democracy
Ulfelder, J., & Lustik, M. B. (2007) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510340701303196 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Party-System Collapse: The Roots of Crisis in Peru and Venezuela
Seawright, J. (2012) · doi:10.11126/stanford/9780804782364.001.0001 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
Taking Uncertainty Seriously: The Blurred Boundaries of Democratic Transition and Consolidation
Schedler, A. (2001) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/714000225 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
V-Dem Codebook V6Preprint
Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Lindberg, S. I., Skaaning, S., Teorell, J., Altman, D., Andersson, F., Bernhard, M. H., Fish, M. S., Glynn, A., et al. (2016) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2951018 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Categorizing Political Regimes: New Data for Old Problems
Reich, G. M. (2002) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/714000289 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Measures of Democratization: From Degree to Type to War
Bogaards, M. (2010) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1065912909358578 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Regressive Socioeconomic Distribution and Democratic Survival
Reenock, C. M., Bernhard, M. H., & Sobek, D. (2007) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2007.00469.x · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Economic Performance And Survival In New Democracies: Is There a Honeymoon Effect?
Bernhard, M., Reenock, C., & Nordstrom, T. (2003) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414003251175 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Does regime type matter for the impact of democracy aid on democracy?
Cornell, A. (2012) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2012.659021 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Polity Iv, 1800-1999: Comments on Munck and Verkuilen
Marshall, M. G., Gurr, T. R., Davenport, C., & Jaggers, K. (2002) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414002035001003 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Decline of Democracy: Loss of Quality, Hybridisation and Breakdown of Democracy
Erdmann, G. (2011) · VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-531-93302-3_2 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Lindberg, S. I. (2015) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2704786 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Lai, B. H., & Melkonian-Hoover, R. M. (2005) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/106591290505800403 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Unwelcome Change: Coming to Terms with Democratic Backsliding
Waldner, D., & Lust, E. (2018) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-050517-114628 · Cited by 889 · see citing works
Self-citationBacksliding: Democratic Regress in the Contemporary World
Haggard, S., & Kaufman, R. (2021) · doi:10.1017/9781108957809 · Cited by 464 · see citing works
Backsliding: Democratic Regress in the Contemporary World
Haggard, S. M., & Kaufman, R. R. (2021) · KDI Central Archives (Korea Development Institute) · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Social Revolution and Authoritarian Durability
Lachapelle, J., Levitsky, S., Way, L. A., & Casey, A. E. (2020) · World Politics · doi:10.1017/s0043887120000106 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
Reversing regimes and concepts: from democratization to autocratization
Cassani, A., & Tomini, L. (2018) · European Political Science · doi:10.1057/s41304-018-0168-5 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Measuring Democratic Backsliding
Little, A. T., & Meng, A. (2024) · PS: Political Science & Politics · doi:10.1017/s104909652300063x · Cited by 121 · see citing works
Patterns of democratic backsliding in third-wave democracies: a sequence analysis perspective
Wunsch, N., & Blanchard, P. (2022) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2022.2130260 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Back to Competitive Authoritarianism? Democratic Backsliding in Vučić’s Serbia
Castaldo, A. (2020) · Europe Asia Studies · doi:10.1080/09668136.2020.1817860 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Who’s to blame for democratic backsliding: populists, presidents or dominant executives?
Berlucchi, A. B., & Kellam, M. (2023) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2023.2190582 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Towards a unified approach to research on democratic backsliding
Jee, H., Lueders, H., & Myrick, R. (2022) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2021.2010709 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Self-citationAhmed, A. (2023) · Perspectives on Politics · doi:10.1017/s1537592722001062 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Measuring Democratic BackslidingPreprint
Little, A. T., & Meng, A. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4327307 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Domestic Military Deployments in Response to COVID-19
Erickson, P. M., Kljajić, M., & Shelef, N. G. (2022) · Armed Forces & Society · doi:10.1177/0095327x211072890 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Re-examining thresholds of continuous democracy measures
Kasuya, Y., & Mori, K. (2021) · Contemporary Politics · doi:10.1080/13569775.2021.1993564 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Method Factors in Democracy Indicators
Elff, M., & Ziaja, S. (2018) · Politics and Governance · doi:10.17645/pag.v6i1.1235 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Measuring Democratic BackslidingPreprint
Little, A. T., & Meng, A. (2023) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/n32zk · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Episodes of liberalization in autocracies: a new approach to quantitatively studying democratization
Wilson, M. C., Medzihorsky, J., Maerz, S. F., Lindenfors, P., Edgell, A. B., Boese, V. A., & Lindberg, S. I. (2022) · Political Science Research and Methods · doi:10.1017/psrm.2022.11 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Post-Cold War autocratization: trends and patterns of regime change opposite to democratization
Cassani, A., & Tomini, L. (2019) · Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica · doi:10.1017/ipo.2019.4 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Youth, Institutional Trust, and Democratic Backsliding
Kwak, J., Tomescu‐Dubrow, I., Słomczyński, K. M., & Dubrow, J. K. (2020) · American Behavioral Scientist · doi:10.1177/0002764220941222 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Marketplace of indicators: inconsistencies between country trends of measures of the rule of law
Kołczyńska, M., & Bürkner, P. (2021) · Political Research Exchange · doi:10.1080/2474736x.2021.1989984 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Keeping the Democratic Façade: Contemporary Autocratization as a Game of DeceptionPreprint
Lührmann, A., & Lindberg, S. I. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3236601 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Party System Changes and Challenges to Democracy
Fink‐Hafner, D. (2024) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-54949-6 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Cassani, A., & Tomini, L. (2018) · Challenges to democracy in the 21st century · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-03125-1_2 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Examining the effects of democratic backsliding on human rights conditions
Adhikari, B., King, J., & Murdie, A. M. (2024) · Journal of Human Rights · doi:10.1080/14754835.2023.2295878 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Political consequences of natural disasters: accidental democratization?
Povitkina, M., Jagers, S. C., Rydén, O., & Sjöstedt, M. (2025) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2025.2494740 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Electoral autocracies, hybrid regimes, and multiparty autocracies: same, same but different?
Schmid, J. (2025) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2025.2476183 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
The Health Cost of Autocratization
Son, B., & Bellinger, N. M. (2021) · The Journal of Development Studies · doi:10.1080/00220388.2021.2017891 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Democracy, aid, and diffusion: A normative approach to the hybrid regime
Kim, J. (2020) · Sociology Compass · doi:10.1111/soc4.12837 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
When Democracy Brings Insecurity: The Political Legacies of Regime Change
Lueders, H. (2024) · World Politics · doi:10.1353/wp.2024.a916343 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationHeydemann, S. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198871996.013.51 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Golob, T., Gorišek, M., & Makarovič, M. (2023) · Societies · doi:10.3390/soc13080181 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Do Successor Parties Influence Public Attitudes toward the Past? Evidence from Young Democracies
Raimundo, F., & Pereira, J. S. (2021) · Communist and Post-Communist Studies · doi:10.1525/j.postcomstud.2021.54.3.1 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Towards a Unified Concept of Democratic BackslidingPreprint
Jee, H., Lueders, H., & Myrick, R. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3374080 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Self-citationModes of post-Cold War Autocratization
Cassani, A., & Tomini, L. (2018) · Challenges to democracy in the 21st century · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-03125-1_4 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Political Consequences of Natural Disasters: Accidental Democratization?Preprint
Rydén, O., Povitkina, M., Jagers, S. C., & Sjöstedt, M. (2024) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4855028 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Castillo, I. (2024) · Journal of Iberian & Latin American Studies · doi:10.1080/14701847.2024.2374142 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
The emergence of democratic constitutions: comparing the modern world to ancient Greece
Fleck, R. K., & Hanssen, F. A. (2025) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-025-01273-6 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Can unamendable term limits prevent presidents-for-life?
Crabtree, D. (2025) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2025.2534695 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Consequences of democratic backsliding in popular culture: evidence from blacklist in South Korea
Son, B. (2024) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2024.2343103 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Croissant, A., Hengge, A., & Wintergerst, C. (2024) · Asian international studies review · doi:10.1163/2667078x-bja10032 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
ORSUN, O. F., & Bas, M. A. (2026) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1017/pan.2026.10042 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Why India's Political Elites Are to Blame
Yadav, V. (2023) · Journal of democracy · doi:10.1353/jod.0.a900328 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Transitions and Political Stability in Autocracies. The Role of Public PerceptionPreprint
Gilli, M., & Li, Y. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3214597
Empirical Indicators of Democracy and Authoritarianism
Wilson, M., & Park, S. (2022) · doi:10.1093/obo/9780199756223-0348
Relations Between Democracy and Parties
Fink‐Hafner, D. (2024) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-54949-6_3
van Lit, J., Meijers, M. J., & van Ham, C. (2026) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2026.2659798
Executive constraints and incumbent takeovers
Djuve, V. L. (2026) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1093/jopres/xjag065
- Authors
- Lueders, H., & Lust, E.
- Affiliations
- Stanford University (US)
- University of Gothenburg (SE)
- Venue
- SSRN Electronic Journal
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017
- Volume
- 80
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 736-741
- ISSN
- 0022-3816 (ISSN-L)
- 1556-5068
- OpenAlex
- W2759504780
- Cited by
- 48
- References
- 56
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 7
- FWCI
- 9.10
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Journal of Politics (publishedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (publishedVersion)
- Gothenburg University Publications Electronic Archive (Gothenburg University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- United States Agency for International Development
- Institute of International Education
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Science Research and Education
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research
- Keywords
- regime change, measurement problem, conceptualization, elections, coups d'état, robustness of results, cumulative knowledge
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review