Error analysis of CO2 and O2 estimates from the long-term geochemical model GEOCARBSULF

Royer, D. L.; Donnadieu, Y.; Park, J.; Kowalczyk, J.; Godderis, Y.

doi:10.2475/09.2014.01

Cited by 156Paleontology and Stratigraphy of FossilsGeology and Paleoclimatology ResearchEarth Systems and Cosmic Evolution

Error analysis of CO2 and O2 estimates from the long-term geochemical model GEOCARBSULF

Royer, D. L., Donnadieu, Y., Park, J., Kowalczyk, J., Godderis, Y.·2014·American Journal of Science

DOI 10.2475/09.2014.01

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Abstract

Long-term carbon and sulfur cycle models have helped shape our understanding of the Phanerozoic history of atmospheric CO2 and O2, but error analyses have been largely limited to testing only a subset of input parameters singly. As a result, the full ranges of probable CO2 and O2 are not quantitatively known. Here we investigate how variation in all 68 input parameters of the GEOCARBSULF model, both singly and in combination, affect estimated CO2 and O2. We improve formulations for land area, runoff, and continental temperature, the latter of which now excludes land area not experiencing chemical weathering. We find our resampled model CO2 and O2 estimates are well bounded and provide high confidence for a “double-hump” in CO2 during the Phanerozoic, with high values during the early Paleozoic and Mesozoic, and low values during the late Paleozoic and late Mesozoic-to-Cenozoic. Our analyses also support a distinct atmospheric O2 peak during the late Paleozoic (>30%) followed by low values near the Triassic-Jurassic boundary (∼10%). Most of the spread in CO2 is contributed by three factors: climate sensitivity to CO2-doubling and the plant-assisted chemical weathering factors LIFE and GYM. CO2 estimates during the Paleozoic to early Mesozoic are highly concordant with independent records from proxies, but are offset to lower values during the globally warm late Mesozoic to early Cenozoic. The model-proxy mismatch for the late Mesozoic can be eliminated with a change in GYM within its plausible range, but no change within plausible ranges can resolve the early Cenozoic mismatch. Either the true value for one or more input parameters during this interval is outside our sampled range, or the model is missing one or more key processes.

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Authors: Royer, D. L., Donnadieu, Y., Park, J., Kowalczyk, J., & Godderis, Y.
Affiliations: Wesleyan University (US)
Yale University (US)
ORCID: Royer, D. L.
Park, J.
Kowalczyk, J.
Venue: American Journal of Science
Publisher: American Journal of Science (AJS)
Published: 2014-11-01
Volume: 314
Issue: 9
Pages: 1259-1283
ISSN: 0002-9599 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.2475/09.2014.01
OpenAlex: W2130377704
Cited by: 156
References: 64
Citations by year: 2026: 10 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 19 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 5
FWCI: 6.80
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: American Journal of Science (publishedVersion)
Wesleyan University Digital Collections (Wesleyan University) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
HAL AMU (submittedVersion)
Funders: Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR-10-BLAN-0607)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Paleontology and Stratigraphy of Fossils
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Earth Systems and Cosmic Evolution
Keywords: atmospheric CO2, carbon cycle modeling, sulfur cycling, Phanerozoic, model error analysis, chemical weathering, climate sensitivity, Late Mesozoic, early Cenozoic

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Error analysis of CO2 and O2 estimates from the long-term geochemical model GEOCARBSULF

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