The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures
Open accessAbstract
Using a structural life-cycle model, we quantify the long-term impact of school closures during the Corona crisis on children affected at different ages and coming from households with different parental characteristics.In the model, public investment through schooling is combined with parental time and resource investments in the production of child human capital at different stages in the children's development process.We quantitatively characterize both the long-term earnings consequences on children from a Covid-19 induced loss of schooling, as well as the associated welfare losses.Due to self-productivity in the human capital production function, skill attainment at a younger stage of the life cycle raises skill attainment at later stages, and thus younger children are hurt more by the school closures than older children.We find that parental reactions reduce the negative impact of the school closures, but do not fully offset it.The negative impact of the crisis on children's welfare is especially severe for those with parents with low educational attainment and low assets.The school closures themselves are primarily responsible for the negative impact of the Covid-19 shock on the long-run welfare of the children, with the pandemic-induced income shock to parents playing a secondary role.
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Dynamic models of learning stress how small losses can accumulate into large disadvantages with time.
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(2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-44-318576-2.00029-9
Trade-offs and political economy during pandemics
Atella, V., & Scandizzo, P. L. (2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-44-318576-2.00018-4
The effects on the economic systems
Atella, V., & Scandizzo, P. L. (2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-44-318576-2.00020-2
Education in Times of COVID-19
Litvyak, O. (2024) · International series on public policy · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-52096-9_14
Sahu, T. N., Sen, N., & Maity, S. (2024) · Education and Urban Society · doi:10.1177/00131245241293141
Demographic changes and intergenerational reallocations in Brazil, 2003–2018
Correa, C. H., Carrasco‐Gutierrez, C. E., & Turra, C. M. (2025) · The Journal of the Economics of Ageing · doi:10.1016/j.jeoa.2025.100546
Arturo, Y. V. P., Rengifo, L. R., Velásquez, D. M. D., & Arturo, N. M. P. (2026) · South African Journal of Childhood Education · doi:10.4102/sajce.v16i1.1740
- Authors
- Fuchs-Schündeln, N., Krueger, D., Ludwig, A., & Popova, I.
- Affiliations
- Goethe University Frankfurt (DE)
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 2020-09
- OpenAlex
- W3082138958
- Cited by
- 84
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 6
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- MADOC (University of Mannheim) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Server of Goethe University Frankfurt am Main (Goethe University Frankfurt) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
- H2020 European Research Council (815378)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Social Sciences › Education › Education during COVID-19 pandemic
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Keywords
- COVID-19 school closures, long-run earnings, child human capital, welfare effects, parental time investment, parental education, household assets, life-cycle model, skill acquisition, distributional effects
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