The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures
Open accessAbstract
Based on data on school visits from Safegraph and on school closures from Burbio, we document that during the Covid-19 crisis secondary schools were closed for in-person learning for longer periods than elementary schools, private schools experienced shorter closures than public schools, and schools in poorer US counties experienced shorter school closures. To quantify the long-run consequences of these school closures, we extend the structural life cycle model of private and public schooling investments by Fuchs-Schündeln et al. (Econ J 132:1647–1683, 2022) to include private school choice and feed into the model the school closure measures from our empirical analysis. Future earnings and welfare losses are largest for children that started public secondary schools at the onset of the Covid-19 crisis. Comparing children from the top to children from the bottom quartile of the income distribution, welfare losses are 0.5 percentage points larger for the poorer children if school closures were unrelated to income. Accounting for the longer school closures in richer counties reduces this gap by about 1/4. A policy intervention that extends schools by 6 weeks generates significant welfare gains for children and raises future tax revenues sufficient to pay for the cost of this schooling expansion.
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In Fuchs-Schündeln et al. (2021), the effects are largest for younger children.
“The effects are largest for younger children, an implication that follows from two features of the skill accumulation technology emphasized in Section 3, namely selfproductivity (investments today increase human capital tomorrow) and dynamic complementarity (investments today increase the marginal productivity of further investments tomorrow).”
From Educational Inequality* (2022) · cites this paper as Fuchs-Schündeln et al. (2021)
The Results section (“Young and Old Children”) says younger children are more adversely affected when the length of school closures is held constant, and links this to self-productivity and dynamic complementarity. The claim omits that condition: accounting for longer secondary-school closures, the paper says the youngest secondary-school children are most severely affected. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn Fuchs-Schündeln et al. (2021), earnings and welfare losses will be largest for children who started public secondary schools at the onset of the crisis.
“Extending their earlier life cycle model to include the choice of parents between public and private school options, the authors predict that the earnings-and welfare losses will be largest for children who started public secondary schools at the onset of the crisis.”
From Educational Inequality* (2022) · cites this paper as Fuchs-Schündeln et al. (2021)
In Fuchs-Schündeln et al. (2021), these changes diminish the average lifetime earnings of the affected children by about one percent.
“These changes diminish the average lifetime earnings of the affected children by about one percent.”
From Educational Inequality* (2022) · cites this paper as Fuchs-Schündeln et al. (2021)
In Jang and Yum (2020), the effects on intergenerational mobility are larger for older children, who have less time to compensate for learning losses through greater time investments.
“In contrast to the findings of Fuchs-Schündeln et al. (2021), these effects turn out to be larger for older children, who have less time to compensate for learning losses through greater time investments.”
From Educational Inequality* (2022) · cites this paper as Fuchs-Schündeln et al. (2021)
In Fuchs-Schündeln et al. (2021), the welfare loss is non-monotonic in parental education, being strongest for children with high school educated parents rather than for those whose parents did not complete high school.
“This implies that the welfare loss is non-monotonic in parental education, being strongest for children with high school educated parents (who have sizeable college completion rates) rather than for those whose parents did not complete high school (whose attendance rates were low even before the pandemic).”
From Educational Inequality* (2022) · cites this paper as Fuchs-Schündeln et al. (2021)
The Introduction and Results passages report welfare losses by age, school type, and parental income, but not the claimed ranking by parental education. The Calibration > Preferences passage discusses parental education and college completion without comparing welfare losses for children of high-school-educated parents and parents who did not complete high school. Searches for that comparison and for a non-monotonic pattern found no passage establishing it in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.72)
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Self-citationSchools, Job Flexibility, and Married Women's Labor Supply
Hansen, B., Sabia, J. J., & Schaller, J. (2022) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w29660 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
“…regressions, comparing the labor supply of married 6Other recent studies have used SafeGraph data to proxy for school reopenings to study the impacts of school attendance on disease spread and children’s human capital accumulation (Bravata et al., 2021; Fuchs-Schündeln et al., 2021).”
BackgroundMethodSchool closures and effective in-person learning during COVID-19
Kurmann, A., & Lalé, É. (2023) · Economics of Education Review · doi:10.1016/j.econedurev.2023.102422 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationCovid-induced school closures in the United States and Germany: long-term distributional effects
Fuchs‐Schündeln, N. (2022) · Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/epolic/eiac052 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationEducational InequalityPreprint
Blanden, J., Doepke, M., & Stuhler, J. L. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4114801 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
In-Person Schooling and Youth Suicide
Hansen, B., Sabia, J. J., & Schaller, J. (2023) · The Journal of Human Resources · doi:10.3368/jhr.1222-12710r2 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“…2020; Dave, McNichols, and Sabia 2021; Goolsbee and Syverson 2021) and more recently by scholars studying the impact of school reopening/closing policies on health and economic well-being (Garcia and Cowen 2022; Hansen, Sabia, and Schaller 2022; Bravata et al. 2021; Fuchs-Schündeln et al. 2021).”
BackgroundRoss, S. L., Jiang, S., Young, M. F., Meyer, J. L., & Strambler, M. J. (2024) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2407322121 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Valenzuela, J. P., Kuzmanic, D., & Cortés, F. (2024) · International Journal of Educational Development · doi:10.1016/j.ijedudev.2023.102978 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Agyekum, B., Salifu, I., Eshun, S. N., & Asamoah, M. K. (2025) · Journal of Professional Capital and Community · doi:10.1108/jpcc-06-2024-0092 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Shaping inequality and intergenerational persistence of poverty: Free college or better schools?
Krueger, D., Ludwig, A., & Popova, I. (2024) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103694 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationJabbari, J., Chun, Y., Johnson, O., Grinstein‐Weiss, M., & McDermott, L. (2022) · Socius Sociological Research for a Dynamic World · doi:10.1177/23780231221142955 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“As research has found that private schools were often more likely to offer in-person instruction (Fuchs-Schündeln et al. 2021) and districts with stronger teacher unions were more likely to offer remote instruction (Hartney and Finger 2022), some scholars, such as Hartney and Finger (2022), suggest…”
BackgroundChildcare Responsibilities and Parental Labor Market Outcomes During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Garcia, K. S. D., & Cowan, B. (2024) · Journal of Labor Research · doi:10.1007/s12122-024-09355-y · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“…papers suggest that the health and human capital of children are harmed by the closures and that these effects are largest for disadvantaged kids (e.g., Kuhfeld et al. 2020; Engzell et al. 2021; Larsen et al. 2022; Halloran et al. 2021; Fuchs-Schündeln et al. 2021; Fuchs-Schündeln et al. 2022).”
Spending Effects of Child-Related Fiscal TransfersPreprint
Goldfayn-Frank, O., Lewis, V., & Wehrhöfer, N. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4201916 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Fenoll, A. A. (2025) · Journal of Population Economics · doi:10.1007/s00148-025-01093-4 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“Fuchs-Schündeln et al. (2022, 2023) and Jang and Yum (2020) focus on the long-run repercussions of school closures.”
InfluentialOptimal Age-Based Vaccination and Economic Mitigation Policies for the Second Phase of the COVID-19
Glover, A., Heathcote, J., Krueger, D., & Ŕıos-Rull, J.-V. (2021) · The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Papers · doi:10.18651/rwp2021-15 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationSchool Closures and Effective In-Person Learning During Covid-19: When, Where, and for WhomPreprint
Kurmann, A., & Lalé, É. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4114107 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationEfectos económicos y comerciales de la covid-19. Una revisión desde la economía internacional
Pico, G. M. A., & Mejía, M. M. (2023) · Revista de relaciones internacionales estrategia y seguridad · doi:10.18359/ries.6547 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Lasting scars: The long-term effects of school closures on earnings
Kóczán, Z. (2024) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106514 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Connolly, C., Steinbach, S., Vo, M., & Wan, X. (2026) · Journal of Economic Surveys · doi:10.1111/joes.70047 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Mahler, L., & Yum, M. (2024) · Economics Letters · doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111517 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Kaufmann, S. (2023) · Zeitschrift für schweizerische Statistik und Volkswirtschaft/Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik/Swiss journal of economics and statistics · doi:10.1186/s41937-023-00106-x · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free College or Better Schools
Krueger, D., Ludwig, A., & Popova, I. (2024) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w32467 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationShaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free College or Better SchoolsPreprint
Krueger, D., Ludwig, A., & Popova, I. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4833947 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationVirtual Learning, Real Effects: Does Delivery Mode Influence Students' Attainment?Preprint
Motoki, F. Y. S., Neto, V. P., & Rodrigues, V. R. D. S. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4582715
Siddiqui, N., & Gorard, S. A. C. (2025) · Educational Studies · doi:10.1080/03055698.2025.2606385
“This disruption resulted in lower attainment, reduced participation in higher education or the workforce, and lower average wages for affected pupils (Fuchs-Schündeln et al. 2023).”
Niederjohn, M. S., & Flanders, W. (2026) · Journal of School Choice · doi:10.1080/15582159.2026.2698883
- Authors
- Fuchs-Schündeln, N., Krueger, D., Kurmann, A., Lalé, E., Ludwig, A., & Popova, I.
- Affiliations
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Drexel University (US)
- Goethe University Frankfurt (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Krueger, Dirk
- Venue
- IMF Economic Review
- Published
- 2023-02-08
- Volume
- 71
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 35-98
- ISSN
- 2041-4161 (ISSN-L)
- 2041-417X
- PMC
- PMC9907894
- OpenAlex
- W3208933762
- Cited by
- 33
- References
- 76
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 1
- FWCI
- 12.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- IMF Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (submittedVersion)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Server of Goethe University Frankfurt am Main (Goethe University Frankfurt) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (SES-1757084)
- H2020 European Research Council (Consolidator Grant No. 815378)
- NORFACE (TRISP 462-16-120)
- DFG (Leipnizpreis)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Education › Education during COVID-19 pandemic
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Keywords
- COVID-19 school closures, private school choice, future earnings, welfare loss, income inequality, tax revenue, educational expansion
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