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Cited by 272Oceanographic and Atmospheric ProcessesMarine and coastal ecosystemsMarine and fisheries research

Under Pressure: Climate Change, Upwelling, and Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems

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García-Reyes, Marisol, Sydeman, William J., Schoeman, David S., Rykaczewski, Ryan R., Black, Bryan A., Smit, Albertus J., Bograd, Steven J.·2015·Frontiers in Marine Science
DOI 10.3389/fmars.2015.00109
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Abstract

The IPCC AR5 provided an overview of the likely effects of climate change on Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS), stimulating increased interest in research examining the issue. We use these recent studies to develop a new synthesis describing climate change impacts on EBUS. We find that model and observational data suggest coastal upwelling-favorable winds in poleward portions of EBUS have intensified and will continue to do so in the future. Although evidence is weak in data that are presently available, future projections show that this pattern might be driven by changes in the positioning of the oceanic high-pressure systems rather than by deepening of the continental low-pressure systems, as previously proposed. There is low confidence regarding the future effects of climate change on coastal temperatures and biogeochemistry due to uncertainty in the countervailing responses to increasing upwelling and coastal warming, the latter of which could increase thermal stratification and render upwelling less effective in lifting nutrient-rich deep waters into the photic zone. Although predictions of ecosystem responses are uncertain, EBUS experience considerable natural variability and may be inherently resilient. However, multi-trophic level, end-to-end (i.e., “winds to whales”) studies are needed to resolve the resilience of EBUS to climate change, especially their response to long-term trends or extremes that exceed pre-industrial ranges.

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  • Equatorward upwelling-favorable winds have been observed to increase in strength in most EBUS.

    “Moreover, equatorward upwelling-favorable winds were observed to be increasing their strength in most EBUS (Bakun, 1990;García-Reyes et al., 2015;Sydeman et al., 2014).”

    From Recent Trends in SST, Chl‐<i>a</i>, Productivity and Wind Stress in Upwelling and Open Ocean Areas in the Upper Eastern North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (2021) · cites this paper as García-Reyes et al., 2015

    The Trends in Upwelling-Favorable Winds section reports intensifying winds in three EBUS—the Humboldt and California systems during the warm season, and the Benguela system in annual data. That supports the claim's 'most EBUS' count, but the sentence omits the seasonal qualification and the paper's finding that Canary trends are equivocal. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Warming in coastal areas increases stratification and inhibits vertical nutrient exchange, limiting productivity.

    “Warming in coastal areas increases the stratification and inhibits the vertical nutrient exchange limiting the productivity (Brady et al., 2019;Di Lorenzo et al., 2005;Garcia-Reyes et al., 2015).”

    From Recent Trends in SST, Chl‐<i>a</i>, Productivity and Wind Stress in Upwelling and Open Ocean Areas in the Upper Eastern North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (2021) · cites this paper as Garcia-Reyes et al., 2015

    The ‘Water Temperatures and the Counteracting Roles of Upwelling and Stratification’ section says surface warming increases stratification, which can reduce the nutrients brought into the euphotic zone and thereby affect productivity. But the paper discusses this mechanism in eastern boundary upwelling systems and says its productivity effects depend on upwelling winds; it does not establish the claim as an unqualified outcome across coastal areas. No page number is supplied in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

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Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
García-Reyes, M., Sydeman, W. J., Schoeman, D. S., Rykaczewski, R. R., Black, B. A., Smit, A. J., & Bograd, S. J.
Affiliations
  • Farallon Institute (US)
  • University of the Sunshine Coast (AU)
  • University of South Carolina (US)
  • University of Texas at Austin Marine Science Institute (US)
  • University of the Western Cape (ZA)
  • NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center (US)
ORCID
Venue
Frontiers in Marine Science
Publisher
Frontiers Media SA
Published
2015-12-16
Volume
2
ISSN
2296-7745 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.3389/fmars.2015.00109
OpenAlex
W2216244657
Cited by
272
References
5
Citations by year
2026: 23 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 34 · 2022: 34 · 2021: 33 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 20 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 4
FWCI
9.16
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
cc-by
Locations
  • Frontiers in Marine Science (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
National Science Foundation (1434732)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
Keywords
climate change impacts, eastern boundary upwelling systems, coastal upwelling, upwelling-favorable winds, coastal warming, thermal stratification, nutrient upwelling, biogeochemistry, ecosystem resilience, IPCC AR5, natural variation

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