Estimating the Milky Way's Mass via Hierarchical Bayes: A Blind Test on MUGS2 Simulated Galaxies
Open accessAbstract
In a series of three papers, Eadie et al. developed a hierarchical Bayesian method to estimate the Milky Way Galaxy’s mass given a physical model for the potential, a measurement model, and kinematic data of test particles such as globular clusters (GCs) or halo stars in the Galaxy’s halo. The Galaxy’s virial mass was found to have a 95% Bayesian credible region (c.r.) of (0.67, 1.09) × 10 12 M ⊙ . In the present study, we test the hierarchical Bayesian method against simulated galaxies created in the McMaster Unbiased Galaxy Simulations 2 (MUGS2), for which the true mass is known. We estimate the masses of MUGS2 galaxies using GC analogs from the simulations as tracers. The analysis, completed as a blind test, recovers the true M 200 of the MUGS2 galaxies within 95% Bayesian c.r. in 8 out of 18 cases. Of the 10 galaxy masses that were not recovered within the 95% c.r., a large subset have posterior distributions that occupy extreme ends of the parameter space allowed by the priors. A few incorrect mass estimates are explained by the exceptional evolution history of the galaxies. We also find evidence that the model cannot describe both the galaxies’ inner and outer structure simultaneously in some cases. After removing the GC analogs associated with the galactic disks, the true masses were found more reliably (13 out of 18 were predicted within the c.r.). Finally, we discuss how representative the GC analogs are of the real GC population in the Milky Way.
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Eadie et al. (2018) tested their method against cosmological simulations and found their estimates are often affected by systematic uncertainties not incorporated in their quoted error bars.
“For example, Eadie et al. (2018) have tested their method against cosmological simulations and find that their estimates are often affected by systematic uncertainties that are not incorporated in their quoted error bars.”
From The milky way total mass profile as inferred from Gaia DR2 (2020) · cites this paper as Eadie et al. (2018)
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Eadie, G., Keller, B., & Harris, W. E.
- Affiliations
- University of Washington (US)
- Heidelberg University (DE)
- McMaster University (CA)
- Venue
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Publisher
- American Astronomical Society
- Published
- 2018-09-20
- Volume
- 865
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 72
- ISSN
- 0004-637X (ISSN-L)
- 1538-4357
- OpenAlex
- W2893051096
- Cited by
- 20
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 6 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 4
- FWCI
- 1.05
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- The Astrophysical Journal (publishedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- University of Washington
- McMaster University
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Galaxies: Formation, Evolution, Phenomena
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
- Keywords
- Milky Way mass, hierarchical Bayesian inference, globular clusters, blind test, virial mass, dark matter halos, kinematic tracers, halo stars, Galactic disk
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