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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

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Meinshausen, Malte, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Lewis, Jared, Gidden, Matthew J., Vogel, Elisabeth, Freund, Mandy, Beyerle, Urs, Gessner, Claudia, Nauels, Alexander, Bauer, Nico, Canadell, Josep G., Daniel, John S., John, Andrew, Krummel, Paul B., Luderer, Gunnar, Meinshausen, Nicolai, Montzka, Stephen A., Rayner, Peter J., Reimann, Stefan, Smith, Steven J., van den Berg, Marten, Velders, Guus J. M., Vollmer, Martin K., Wang, Ray H. J.·2020·Geoscientific Model Development

DOI 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020

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Abstract

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘ C warming on the other.

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Xie, Y., Thammavong, H. T., & Park, D. S. (2022) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.18361 · Cited by 24
“5 represents fossil-fueled development with strong challenges to mitigation and weak challenges to adaptation, as the low-effort baseline (Riahi et al ., 2017; Meinshausen et al ., 2020).”
How Will the Distributions of Native and Invasive Species Be Affected by Climate Change? Insights from Giant South American Land Snails
Teles, W., Silva, D. D. P., Vilela, B., Lima-Júnior, D., Pires-Oliveira, J. C., & Miranda, M. (2022) · Diversity · doi:10.3390/d14060467 · Cited by 24
Diminished biophysical cooling benefits of global forestation under rising atmospheric CO2
Kan, F., Xu, H., Tang, S., Peñuelas, J., Lian, X., Roebroek, C. T. J., Anniwaer, N., Wang, K., & Piao, S. L. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-59547-y · Cited by 21
“The CO 2 concentration data were derived from the CMIP6 historical and SSP scenario forcing datasets constructed by Meinshausen et al. 76,77 .”
High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw
Deutloff, J., Held, H., & Lenton, T. M. (2025) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-16-565-2025 · Cited by 23
“This is why we base our analysis beyond 2100 on the emission scenario extensions from Meinshausen et al. (2020).”
How does the latitude of stratospheric aerosol injection affect the climate in UKESM1?
Henry, M., Bednarz, E., & Haywood, J. (2024) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-24-13253-2024 · Cited by 23
Acceleration of daily land temperature extremes and correlations with surface energy fluxes
Huntingford, C., Cox, P. M., Ritchie, P. D. L., Clarke, J. J., Parry, I., & Williamson, M. S. (2024) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00626-0 · Cited by 32
Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario
Akritidis, D., Bacer, S., Zanis, P., Georgoulias, A. K., Chowdhury, S., Horowitz, L. W., Naïk, V., O’Connor, F. M., Keeble, J., Sager, P. L., et al. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad2162 · Cited by 28
“0 emissions scenario presents ‘no-additional-climate-policy’ with strong greenhouse gas emissions, i.e. a doubling of CO 2 emissions overall, weak air pollution control, and significant increases in temperature up to about 3.6 ◦ C by the end of the century [3, 7, 8].”
BackgroundInfluential
Sensitive or resilient catchment?: A Budyko-based modeling approach for climate change and anthropogenic stress under historical to CMIP6 future scenarios
Swain, S. S., Kumar, S. B., Mishra, A., & Chatterjee, C. (2023) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129651 · Cited by 29
Assessment of future possible maximum flooding extent in the midwestern coastal region of Taiwan resulting from sea-level rise and land subsidence
Hsiao, S.-C., Fu, H.-S., Chen, W.-B., Chang, T., Wu, H.-L., & Liang, T.-H. (2022) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ac8f15 · Cited by 23
The Fractional Energy Balance Equation for Climate projections through 2100
Procyk, R., Lovejoy, S., & Hébert, R. (2020) · doi:10.5194/esd-2020-48 · Cited by 23
Projected Water Levels and Identified Future Floods: A Comparative Analysis for Mahaweli River, Sri Lanka
Rathnayake, N., Rathnayake, U., Chathuranika, I. M., Dang, T. L., & Hoshino, Y. (2023) · IEEE Access · doi:10.1109/access.2023.3238717 · Cited by 36
Complexity responses of Rhododendron species to climate change in China reveal their urgent need for protection
Li, K., Liu, X.-F., Zhang, J.-H., Zhou, X.-L., Yang, L., & Shen, S.-K. (2023) · Forest Ecosystems · doi:10.1016/j.fecs.2023.100124 · Cited by 23
Cumulative Anthropogenic Impacts of Past and Future Emissions and Releases on the Global Mercury Cycle
Geyman, B. M., Streets, D., Olson, C., Thackray, C. P., Olson, C. L., Schaefer, K., Krabbenhoft, D., & Sunderland, E. (2025) · Environmental Science and Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.4c13434 · Cited by 22
Practical paths towards quantifying and mitigating agricultural methane emissions
Nisbet, E. G., Manning, M., Lowry, D. C., Fisher, R., Lan, X., Michel, S., France, J. L., Nisbet, R. E. R., Bakkaloglu, S., Leitner, S., et al. (2025) · Proceedings of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspa.2024.0390 · Cited by 18
Drought risk assessment on arid region under different socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Loess Plateau, China
Guo, J., Xiao, D.-Y., Sun, X.-L., Guo, F., Xue, S., & Fan, L.-X. (2024) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112728 · Cited by 22
Regional-scale energy-water nexus framework to assess the GHG emissions under climate change and development scenarios via system dynamics approach
Abolghasemzadeh, H., Zekri, E., & Nasseri, M. (2024) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2024.105565 · Cited by 23
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount
Goddard, P. B., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E., & Lee, W. (2023) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2023jd039434 · Cited by 29
“5 scenario (Meinshausen et al., 2020) with the sulfate precursor (SO 2 ) injection beginning in January 2035 and continuing through December 2069.”
BackgroundInfluential
TreeGOER: A database with globally observed environmental ranges for 48,129 tree species
Kindt, R. (2023) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16914 · Cited by 22
Present and Future of Heavy Rain Events in the Sahel and West Africa
Saley, I. A., & Salack, S. (2023) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos14060965 · Cited by 22
A Review of Human Settlement Research on Climate Change Response under Carbon-Oriented: Literature Characteristics, Progress and Trends
An, N., Yao, Q., & Shen, Q. (2022) · Buildings · doi:10.3390/buildings12101614 · Cited by 22
“Although the RCHSCC originated earlier in the year analysis, the high-frequency words mainly appeared in recent years (2013–2016).”
Background
Stronger decadal variability of the Kuroshio Extension under simulated future climate change
Joh, Y., Delworth, T., Wittenberg, A., Cooke, W., Rosati, A., & Zhang, L.-P. (2022) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00285-z · Cited by 22
Centennial Memory of the Arctic Ocean for Future Arctic Climate Recovery in Response to a Carbon Dioxide Removal
Oh, J., An, S., Shin, J., & Kug, J. (2022) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef002804 · Cited by 30
“Also, we here performed the somewhat extreme transient CO2 reversibility experiment with a maximum CO2 concentration quadrupled from the present level, which is comparable to the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) 5–8.5 Scenario (Meinshausen et al., 2020) in the CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016).”
BackgroundInfluential
Effects of enhanced UV-B radiation on photosynthetic performance and non-photochemical quenching process of intertidal red macroalgae Neoporphyra haitanensis
Xue, S., Zang, Y., Chen, J., Shang, S., & Tang, X. (2022) · Environmental and Experimental Botany · doi:10.1016/j.envexpbot.2022.104888 · Cited by 24
Ecological impact assessment of climate change and habitat loss on wetland vertebrate assemblages of the Great Barrier Reef catchment and the influence of survey bias
Canning, A. D., & Waltham, N. J. (2021) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.7412 · Cited by 34
“The SSP 5– 8.5 scenario represents a high impact scenario with high fossil fuel consumption throughout the 21st century (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
BackgroundInfluential
Impacts of a near-future supersonic aircraft fleet on atmospheric composition and climate
Eastham, S., Fritz, T., Sanz-Morère, I., Prashanth, P., Allroggen, F., Prinn, R. G., Speth, R., & Barrett, S. (2022) · Environmental Science Atmospheres · doi:10.1039/d1ea00081k · Cited by 22
Global emissions and abundances of chemically and radiatively important trace gases from the AGAGE network
Western, L., Rigby, M., Mühle, J., Krummel, P., Lunder, C., O'Doherty, S., Reimann, S., Vollmer, M., Young, D., Adam, B., et al. (2025) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-17-6557-2025 · Cited by 21
“Recent emission estimates (within the previous ∼ 2 years) should be treated as preliminary as some of the underlying measurement data may not be fully vetted and/or calibration tanks may not have been returned from the measurement sites to the AGAGE central calibration laboratory for re-calibration…”
Self-citation
Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world
de Winter, N. J., Tindall, J. C., Johnson, A. L. A., Goudsmit, B., Wichern, N., Kaskes, P., Claeys, P., Huygen, F., van Leeuwen, S. M., Metcalfe, B., et al. (2024) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 · Cited by 23
Particulate Nitrate Photolysis as a Possible Driver of Rising Tropospheric Ozone
Shah, V. P., Keller, C. A., Knowland, K. E., Christiansen, A., Hu, L., Wang, H., Lu, X. H., Alexander, B., & Jacob, D. J. (2024) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl107980 · Cited by 34
Impact of plastic mulching and residue return on maize yield and soil organic carbon storage in irrigated dryland areas under climate change
Quan, H., Wang, B., Wu, L.-H., Feng, H., Wu, L.-N., Wu, L.-H., Liu, D., & Siddique, K. (2024) · Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment · doi:10.1016/j.agee.2023.108838 · Cited by 21
Characterizing patterns of seasonal drought stress for use in common bean breeding in East Africa under present and future climates
Jha, P. K., Beebe, S. E., Alvarez, P., Mukankusi, C. M., & Ramírez-Villegas, J. (2023) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109735 · Cited by 23
“Atmospheric CO 2 concentration input into the crop model for the SSPs 1 – 2.6, 2 – 4.5, 3 – 7.0, and 5 – 8.5 for the 2030 (2050) periods were 440 (469), 446 (508), 454 (544), and 456 (569) parts per million respectively (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
BackgroundInfluential
Comprehensive regionalization and potential water crisis for solar power development in arid and semi-arid regions of northwest China
Hou, W., Zhang, X., Deng, H., Zhang, X., Wu, M., Qin, T., Li, X., Yan, D., Yi, B., Ta, W., et al. (2023) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.106939 · Cited by 23
On the climatic influence of CO2 forcing in the Pliocene
Burton, L. E., Haywood, A., Tindall, J., Dolan, A., Hill, D., Abe-Ouchi, A., Chan, W., Chandan, D., Feng, R., Hunter, S., et al. (2023) · Climate of the Past · doi:10.5194/cp-19-747-2023 · Cited by 21
Advancing the potential impact of future scenarios by integrating psychological principles
Richter, I., Gabe‐Thomas, E., Queirós, A. M., Sheppard, S. R. J., & Pahl, S. (2022) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2022.11.015 · Cited by 34
Optimization of the Design of an Agrophotovoltaic System in Future Climate Conditions in South Korea
Kim, S., & Kim, S. (2023) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4088352 · Cited by 21
Climate impact emergence and flood peak synchronization projections in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios
Gädeke, A., Wortmann, M., Menz, C., Islam, A., Masood, M., Krysanova, V., Lange, S., & Hattermann, F. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ca1 · Cited by 21
Predicting the northward expansion of tropical lineage Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato ticks in the United States and its implications for medical and veterinary health
Pascoe, E., Nava, S., Labruna, M., Paddock, C., Levin, M., Marcantonio, M., & Foley, J. (2022) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0271683 · Cited by 21
The Potential Impact of a Clean Energy Society on Air Quality
Sanyal, S., & Wuebbles, D. J. (2022) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2021ef002558 · Cited by 34
CMIP6 simulations with the compact Earth system model OSCAR v3.1
Quilcaille, Y., Gasser, T., Ciais, P., & Boucher, O. (2022) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-412 · Cited by 21
“The extensions of scenarios are not those that were initially foreseen (O’Neill et al., 2016) but those that have effectively been used during the CMIP6 exercise (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Method
A prospective life cycle assessment framework for sustainable renewable fuels in international shipping: Hydrogen based e fuels
Ha, S.-M., Jang, H., Park, C., & Jeong, B. (n.d.) · Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2025.116219 · Cited by 21
Global vegetation production may decrease in this century due to rising atmospheric dryness
Lin, S., Chen, X.-Z., Xia, J., Xin, Q., Fu, Z., He, B., Liu, Q.-H., Piao, S., & Yuan, W. (2025) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-025-02885-3 · Cited by 20
“54 under the SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios as GHG forcing in the future prediction (corresponding to Supplementary Fig.”
Influential
Consistency of global carbon budget between concentration- and emission-driven historical experiments simulated by CMIP6 Earth system models and suggestions for improved simulation of CO2 concentration
Hajima, T., Kawamiya, M., Ito, A., Tachiiri, K., Jones, C. D., Arora, V. K., Brovkin, V., Séférian, R., Liddicoat, S., Friedlingstein, P., et al. (2025) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025 · Cited by 20
Marine ecosystem role in setting up preindustrial and future climate
Tjiputra, J., Couespel, D., & Sanders, R. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-57371-y · Cited by 20
Low human interest for the most at-risk reef fishes worldwide
Mouquet, N., Langlois, J., Casajus, N., Auber, A., Flandrin, U., Guilhaumon, F., Loiseau, N., McLean, M. J., Receveur, A., Stuart‐Smith, R. D., et al. (2024) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adj9510 · Cited by 25
“6, representing a future with an emphasis on sustainable development and reduced greenhouse gas emissions ( 87 ).”
Combined effects of climate change and agricultural intensification on soil erosion in uphill shifting cultivation in Northeast India
Schröder, L. S., Rasche, L., Jantke, K., Mishra, G., Lange, S., Eschenbach, A., & Schneider, U. A. (2023) · Land Degradation & Development · doi:10.1002/ldr.4944 · Cited by 20
“For further information on model setup, including scenario-specific CO 2 concentrations (Meinshausen et al., 2020) applied per simulation period, we provide a detailed documentation in the Supplementary Material (A1 – A4).”
Method
Understanding pattern scaling errors across a range of emissions pathways
Wells, C., Jackson, L., Maycock, A., & Forster, P. (2023) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-14-817-2023 · Cited by 20
Melting ice and rising seas – connecting projected change in Antarctica’s ice sheets to communities in Aotearoa New Zealand
Levy, R., Naish, T., Lowry, D., Priestley, R. K., Winefield, R., Alevropolous-Borrill, A., Beck, E., Bell, R., Blick, G., Dadić, R., et al. (2023) · Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand · doi:10.1080/03036758.2023.2232743 · Cited by 20
“A ‘ Sea-level rise ’ button leads to information about sea-level rise, VLM, and the IPCC shared socio-economic pathways (Meinshausen et al. 2020).”
BackgroundInfluential
Modeling the effects of global cooling and the Tethyan Seaway closure on North African and South Asian climates during the Middle Miocene Climate Transition
Zhang, J., Hu, Y.-Y., Zhu, C., Flögel, S., Fang, X., & Sun, J.-M. (2023) · Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2023.111541 · Cited by 20
Climate change and dispersion dynamics of the invasive plant species Chromolaena odorata and Lantana camara in parts of the central and eastern India
Sharma, J., Singh, R., Garai, S., Rahaman, S. M., Khatun, M., Ranjan, A., Mishra, S. N., & Tiwari, S. (2022) · Ecological Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101824 · Cited by 34
Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios
Chen, Y., Ji, D., Zhang, Q., Moore, J. C., Boucher, O., Jones, A., Lurton, T., Mills, M. J., Niemeier, U., Séférian, R., et al. (2023) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-14-55-2023 · Cited by 19
Planetary boundaries under a land-based climate change mitigation scenario with a food demand transformation: a modelling study
Beier, F., Dietrich, J. P., Heinke, J., Abrahão, G. M., von Jeetze, P., Bodirsky, B. L., Crawford, M., Humpenöder, F., Merfort, L., Weindl, I., et al. (2025) · The Lancet Planetary Health · doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(25)00087-7 · Cited by 31
“These general trends and the direction of change of supply-side and demand-side, land-based mitigation measures are robust across varying socioeconomic assumptions in MAgPIE (the sensitivity analysis is provided in appendix 1 [pp 13–14, 27–30]).”
Interplay between climate and carbon cycle feedbacks could substantially enhance future warming
Kaufhold, C., Willeit, M., Talento, S., Ganopolski, A., & Rockström, J. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adb6be · Cited by 19
“5, the model simulates higher atmospheric CH 4 levels than Meinshausen et al (2020) because we not only account for anthropogenic CH 4 emissions, but also increases in natural emissions from wetlands as a response to increasing vegetation productivity and rising soil temperatures.”
Influential
Impact assessment of sea level rise-induced high tide flooding and socioeconomic losses in a highly vulnerable coastal region
Hsiao, S.-C., Fu, H.-S., Wu, H.-L., Liang, T., Chang, C.-H., Chen, Y.-M., Lin, L.-Y., & Chen, W.-B. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101921 · Cited by 19

Authors: Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., & Wang, R. H. J.
Affiliations: The University of Melbourne (AU)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
ETH Zurich (CH)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
Empa (CH)
Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
Utrecht University (NL)
Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
Corresponding author: Meinshausen, Malte
Gidden, Matthew J.
Vogel, Elisabeth
Beyerle, Urs
Gessner, Claudia
Nauels, Alexander
Canadell, Josep G.
Krummel, Paul B.
Luderer, Gunnar
Montzka, Stephen A.
Rayner, Peter J.
Reimann, Stefan
Smith, Steven J.
Velders, Guus J. M.
Vollmer, Martin K.
Wang, Ray H. J.
ORCID: Meinshausen, Malte
Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.
Lewis, Jared
Gidden, Matthew J.
Vogel, Elisabeth
Freund, Mandy
Beyerle, Urs
Gessner, Claudia
Nauels, Alexander
Bauer, Nico
Canadell, Josep G.
Daniel, John S.
John, Andrew
Krummel, Paul B.
Luderer, Gunnar
Montzka, Stephen A.
Rayner, Peter J.
Reimann, Stefan
Smith, Steven J.
van den Berg, Marten
Velders, Guus J. M.
Vollmer, Martin K.
Wang, Ray H. J.
Venue: Geoscientific Model Development
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Published: 2020-08-13
Volume: 13
Issue: 8
Pages: 3571-3605
ISSN: 1991-959X (ISSN-L)
1991-9603
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020
OpenAlex: W3048501727
Cited by: 1,815
References: 78
Citations by year: 2026: 288 · 2025: 412 · 2024: 396 · 2023: 336 · 2022: 241 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 33
FWCI: 66.93
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Geoscientific model development (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
DORA Empa (Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion)
Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
RENATE (cc-by)
ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
Funders: Australian Research Council (FT130100809)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, greenhouse gas concentrations, long-lived greenhouse gases, radiative forcing, fossil fuel emissions, land use change emissions, net-negative emissions, non-CO2 emissions, surface air temperature, RCP scenarios

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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

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