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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

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Meinshausen, Malte, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Lewis, Jared, Gidden, Matthew J., Vogel, Elisabeth, Freund, Mandy, Beyerle, Urs, Gessner, Claudia, Nauels, Alexander, Bauer, Nico, Canadell, Josep G., Daniel, John S., John, Andrew, Krummel, Paul B., Luderer, Gunnar, Meinshausen, Nicolai, Montzka, Stephen A., Rayner, Peter J., Reimann, Stefan, Smith, Steven J., van den Berg, Marten, Velders, Guus J. M., Vollmer, Martin K., Wang, Ray H. J.·2020·Geoscientific Model Development

DOI 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020

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Abstract

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘ C warming on the other.

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Feng, J., Zhang, F., Sun, M., Chen, Y., & Zhu, J. (2025) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2025.1555106 · Cited by 6
Climate‐Induced Polar Motion: 1900–2100
Shahvandi, M. K., & Soja, B. (2025) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2024gl113405 · Cited by 4
Effect of urban development and anthropocentric behaviors on heat-energy-carbon emission nexus in future urban cities under CMIP6-SSP projections
Chang, J. M., & Lam, Y. (2025) · Energy and Buildings · doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.115443 · Cited by 4
Climate change impacts and the reshaping of Canadian viticulture
Lippa, M. N., Tarolli, P., & Straffelini, E. (2025) · iScience · doi:10.1016/j.isci.2025.111941 · Cited by 4
Permafrost Response in Northern High‐Latitude Regions to 1.5°C Warming and Overshoot Scenarios Achieved via Solar Radiation Modification
Ji, D.-Y., Cui, M., Chen, Y.-G., & Dai, Y.-J. (2025) · Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2024jd041772 · Cited by 4
Estimating the temperature sensitivity of rice (Oryza sativa L.) yield and its components in China using the CERES-Rice model
Zhou, Z., Jin, J., Fei, L., & Liu, J. (2024) · European Journal of Agronomy · doi:10.1016/j.eja.2024.127419 · Cited by 1
Decoding climate change influence: A sensitivity analysis of Iranian multi-apartment design parameters
Fereidani, N. A., Rodrigues, E., & Gaspar, A. (2025) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2025.134742 · Cited by 4
Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s
Uribe, A., Bender, F., & Mauritsen, T. (2024) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024 · Cited by 4
Altitudinal Distribution of Grasshoppers in the Mountains of Inner Asia: Recalling the Past and Imagining the Future
Sergeev, M. G., Baturina, N. S., Kim-Kashmenskaya, M. N., & Molodtsov, V. V. (2024) · Biology Bulletin · doi:10.1134/s106235902461111x · Cited by 4
“To compare the models produced for the modern conditions and for the future the full sets of bioclimatic variables (modern and predicted for 2041–2060) were used (WorldClim, 2022) based on the global climate model CNRM-ESM2-1 (Séférian, 2018) and the 3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Influential
A novel method to calculate SSP-consistent remaining carbon budgets for the building sector: A case study of Canada
Breton, C., Blanchet, P., Amor, B., & Pomponi, F. (2024) · Building and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2024.112474 · Cited by 7
Modeling the Distribution of the Rare and Red-Listed Halophytic Moss Species Entosthodon hungaricus Under Various Climate Change Scenarios in Serbia
Abubakar, I., Pantović, J., Šinžar-Sekulić, J. B., & Sabovljević, M. (2024) · Plants · doi:10.3390/plants13233347 · Cited by 4
“In addition, two socio-economic pathways (SSPs)—SSP1–2.6 (low-emission projections, ca. +1.8 ◦ C by 2100) and SSP5–8.5 (high-emission projections, ca. +4.4 ◦ C by 2100) [53]—were used to predict the potential impact of climate change on E. hungaricus [54,55].”
Influential
Tracing human influence on rising surface air temperature in Venezuela
Swain, B., Vountas, M., Singh, A., & Gunthe, S. S. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-79671-x · Cited by 4
“The SSP245 scenario aligns with RCP4.”
Influential
Evaluating the impact of climate change on yield and water use efficiency of different dry-season rice varieties cultivated under conventional and alternate wetting and drying conditions
Phoeurn, C. A., Degré, A., Oeurng, C., & Ket, P. (2024) · Environmental Monitoring & Assessment · doi:10.1007/s10661-024-13363-x · Cited by 4
“These scenarios cover two out of the four primary greenhouse gas emissions pathways referred to as Shared Socioeconomic Path-ways (SSPs) (Meinshausen et al., 2020; O’Neill et al., 2016).”
Carbon Cycle and Circulation Change in the North Pacific Ocean at the Initiation of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation Constrained by Boron‐Based Proxies in Diatoms
Donald, H. K., Swann, G. E. A., Rae, J., & Foster, G. (2024) · Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology · doi:10.1029/2024pa004968 · Cited by 4
Buzzing towards Resilience: Investigating the Spatial Alignment of the Desert Pallid Bee, Centris pallida, and Its Host Plants in Response to Climate Change
Cruz, T. M. P., Buchmann, S. L., & Prudic, K. (2024) · Insects · doi:10.3390/insects15100793 · Cited by 4
“…represents a future with increased global warming of 3 ◦ C and radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m 2 by the year 2100, given the current economic The data contain the average minimum temperature (°C), average maximum temperature (°C) and average total precipitation (mm) for each month. trends [4,63,64].”
BackgroundInfluential
Climate change will decrease the coverage of suitable niches for Asian medicinal orchid (Bulbophyllum odoratissimum) and its main phorophyte (Pistacia weinmannifolia)
Kolanowska, M. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-73248-4 · Cited by 5
Mapping the potential habitat suitability and opportunities of bush encroacher species in Southern Africa: a case study of the SteamBioAfrica project
Bravo-García, J., Camarillo-Naranjo, J., Blanco-Velázquez, F. J., González-Peñaloza, F., & Anaya-Romero, M. (2024) · Frontiers of Biogeography · doi:10.21425/fob.17.136222 · Cited by 4
Influence of Protected Areas in the Carbon Cycle: A Machine Learning Approach for Future Forecasting
Lago-González, P., Acuña-Alonso, C., & Álvarez, X. (2024) · Earth Systems and Environment · doi:10.1007/s41748-024-00451-8 · Cited by 4
Modeling invasion patterns of Chromolaena odorata under changing climate and LULC in La Union, Philippines
Tadios-Ayson, A. H., Moran, C., & Dagamac, N. H. (2024) · Vegetos- An International Journal of Plant Research · doi:10.1007/s42535-024-01001-3 · Cited by 4
“Additionally, conducting comparative analyses of various emission scenarios is recommended to assess differences in predictive accuracy (Meinshausen et al. 2020; Sharma et al. 2022a).”
Comparison of the calculated frost event return period based on copula models under climate change: a case study of Chadegan region in Isfahan province- Iran
Mazaheri, E., Koupai, J. A., Heidarpour, M., Zareian, M., & Gohari, A. (2024) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-024-05064-9 · Cited by 4
“4-os, and SSP x–y (1–2.0) (O'Neill et al. 2017; Rogelj et al. 2018; Estoque et al. 2020; Meinshausen et al. 2020).”
Influential
The Potential of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Reduce the Climatic Risks of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions
Quaglia, I., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E., MacMartin, D. G., & Kravitz, B. (2024) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl107702 · Cited by 9
“The volcanic eruptions and SAI are simulated under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 (Meinshausen et al., 2020) (SSP2‐4.5) as a background greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosols emission scenario (Mac-Martin et al., 2022).”
MethodInfluential
Modelling Distribution of an Endangered Longhorn Beetle, Callipogon relictus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), in Northeast Asia
Kuprin, A., Shevchenko, N., & Baklanova, V. (2024) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f15040598 · Cited by 4
Global Warming Drives Expansion of Endangered Spruce Forest on the Tibetan Plateau
Zhang, H., Yuan, H., Zou, H., Zhu, X., Zhang, Y., Wang, Z.-Y., & Liu, Z. (2024) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su16052164 · Cited by 4
Integrating Trait‐Based Stoichiometry in a Biogeochemical Inverse Model Reveals Links Between Phytoplankton Physiology and Global Carbon Export
Sullivan, M. R., Primeau, F., Hagstrom, G., Wang, W., & Martiny, A. (2024) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2023gb007986 · Cited by 4
“Current emissions scenarios project p CO 2 values between 393 and 1,135 ppm by 2100 (i.e., up to > 800 ppm higher than the preindustrial steady state atmospheric CO 2 concentration of 278 ppm) (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Background
Climate change in open environments: Revisiting the current distribution to understand and safeguard the future of psammophilous squamates of the Diagonal of Open Formations of South America
Oliveira, J. S., Santana, D., Pantoja, D., Ceron, K., & Guedes, T. B. (2024) · Journal of Arid Environments · doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2023.105117 · Cited by 4
Indicators of thermal alteration in US waters reveal patterns of climate risk at the energy-water nexus
Jager, H., Manning, K., Welch, J. N., Corsi, F., Miara, A., Yoon, H. S., McManamay, R., Kao, S.-C., Kusnierz, P. C., & Gangrade, S. (2024) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111755 · Cited by 4
A drier Orinoco basin during the twenty-first century: the role of the Orinoco low-level jet
Correa, I. C., Arias, P. A., Vieira, S. C., & Martínez, J. A. (2024) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-023-07028-7 · Cited by 5
“5, which correspond to low, intermediate, and high GHG emission scenarios, respectively (Riahi et al. 2017; Meinshausen et al. 2020).”
Hurricane track trends and environmental flow patterns under surface temperature changes and roughness length variations
Romdhani, O., Matak, L., & Momen, M. (2024) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2024.100645 · Cited by 4
Using machine learning to construct TOMCAT model and occultation measurement-based stratospheric methane (TCOM-CH4) and nitrous oxide (TCOM-N2O) profile data sets
Dhomse, S., & Chipperfield, M. (2023) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-15-5105-2023 · Cited by 4
Physically based equation representing the forcing-driven precipitation in climate models
Lee, D., Sparrow, S., Min, S.-K., Yeh, S., & Allen, M. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acf50f · Cited by 4
Multitemporal Land Use and Cover Analysis Coupled with Climatic Change Scenarios to Protect the Endangered Taxon Asphodelus bento-rainhae subsp. bento-rainhae
Almeida, A., Delgado, F., Roque, N., Ribeiro, M., & Fernandez, P. (2023) · Plants · doi:10.3390/plants12162914 · Cited by 4
“The results showed that climate change considering the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP3-7 scenario, a medium-high reference scenario within the socioeconomic family [38], will not affect the range of the species.”
Background
Dynamic connectivity analyses to inform management of the invasive American mink and its native competitor, the European mink
Goicolea, T., Lewison, R. L., Mateo-Sánchez, M. C., & Jennings, M. K. (2023) · Biological Invasions · doi:10.1007/s10530-023-03128-x · Cited by 4
Establishment and Expansion Scenario of Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae) in Central Brazil
Viana, J. P. C., Lopes-da-Silva, M., Viana, M., & Tidon, R. (2023) · Neotropical Entomology · doi:10.1007/s13744-023-01042-4 · Cited by 4
“…the optimistic SSP1‑2.6 predicts a constant drop in CO 2 emissions, which will reach 0 giga‑ tons before 2080, and the pessimistic SSP5‑8.5 assumes that CO 2 emissions will reach 120 gigatons before 2080 (additional information about these scenarios can be found in Meinshausen et al. 2020).”
BackgroundInfluential
Suitability of Natura 2000 sites for threatened freshwater species under projected climate change
Basen, T., Chucholl, C., Oexle, S., Ros, A., & Brinker, A. (2022) · Aquatic conservation · doi:10.1002/aqc.3899 · Cited by 4
“Projected end-of-century global mean surface air temperature rises relative to 1750 are 1.6 (1.0–2.4), 3.8 (2.6–5.7) and 5.0 (3.3–7.6) K for SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585, respectively (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
An Integrated Approach for Evaluating Climate Change Risks: A Case Study in Suriname
Antich-Homar, H., Hess, K., Solaun, K., Alleng, G. P., & Flores, A. (2022) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su14031463 · Cited by 4
Does threatened species listing status predict climate change risk? A case study with Australian Persoonia (Proteaceae) species
Andres, S. E., Powell, J., Emery, N., Rymer, P., & Gallagher, R. (2021) · Global Ecology and Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01862 · Cited by 4
Erratum: Atmospheric methane underestimated in future climate projections (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 094006)
Kleinen, T., Gromov, S., Steil, B., & Brovkin, V. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f66 · Cited by 4
Developing an extreme weather exposure index for urban green infrastructure: A comparative indicator weighting approach applied to South Korea
Robles, M. E. L., Oh, Y., Haque, M. T., Uy, M. J., Mueca, C. C., & Kim, L. (2026) · Environmental impact assessment review · doi:10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108250 · Cited by 4
Duration of frozen days show a strong decline in the Northern Hemisphere mainly driven by autumn temperature increase
Yuan, Q., Zhong, W.-J., Yang, Q.-Q., Peng, Y., Bolch, T., Wang, Y., Yue, L., Shen, H.-F., & Zhang, L.-P. (2025) · The Innovation Geoscience · doi:10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2024.100118 · Cited by 4
Modelling the distribution of the Caucasian oak (Quercus macranthera) in Western Asia under future climate change scenarios
Kenar, N., & Kikvidze, Z. (2023) · Botanica Serbica · doi:10.2298/botserb2302215k · Cited by 4
“5 is a pessimistic scenario which projects a radiative forcing level of 8.5 W/m² by the year 2100 and is based on the rapid and unconstrained growth in economic output and energy consumption with the highest greenhouse gas emissions (Meinshausen et al. 2020).”
BackgroundInfluential
Short-lived halogen sources and chemistry in the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2-SLH)
Fernández, R. P., Cuevas, C. A., Villamayor, J., Feinberg, A. I., Kinnison, D. E., Vitt, F. M., Bossolasco, A. G., Barrera, J. A., Reynoso, A., Tomazzeli, O. G., et al. (2026) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-19-9325-2026 · Cited by 13
Heterogeneous future Arctic Ocean primary productivity changes projected in CMIP6
Champiot-Bayard, L., Kwiatkowski, L., & Vancoppenolle, M. (2026) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-23-4735-2026 · Cited by 3
Overshoot and (ir)reversibility to 2300 in two CO 2 -emissions driven Earth System models
Smith, C., Ramme, L., Wells, C. D., Gjermundsen, A., Li, H.-M., Ilyina, T., Muralidhar, A., Bourgeois, T., Schwinger, J., Romero-Prieto, A., et al. (2026) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-17-893-2026 · Cited by 3
“2-LR and 2 The ESMs are forced with the CO 2 emission pathways used in the SSP scenarios, extended after the year 2100 as described in Meinshausen et al. (2020) Figure 2 shows the prescribed evolution of fossil fuel and industrial CO 2 emissions in both models .”
Rethinking energy transition strategies for the European Union amid rising energy prices
Meng, W.-J., Nieto, J., Guan, D.-B., Meng, J., Sander, R., Pöschl, U., Hubacek, K., Su, H., Tao, S.-H., & Cheng, Y.-F. (2026) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.2609606123 · Cited by 3
“VSLs are scaled to GDP per capita from the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP2 projections (73) and converted to EUR in 2021 with International Monetary Fund (IMF) inflation rates (74).”
Canada's Forests Are Shifting From a Recovery‐Driven Carbon Sink to a Disturbance‐Driven Carbon Source
Curasi, S. R., Melton, J. R., Humphreys, E. R., Arora, V. K., Beaver, J., Cannon, A. J., Chen, J. M., Hermosilla, T., Lee, S., & Wulder, M. A. (2026) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.70958 · Cited by 2
We Are in the Anthropocene—Now What?
Rockström, J., Martin, M. A., Ganopolski, A., Donges, J. F., Feulner, G., Marwan, N., & Rahmstorf, S. (2026) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2025ef007730 · Cited by 9
“To that end, we apply the extended version (Meinshausen et al., 2020) of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) called “SSP1—Sustainability” and “SSP2‐Middle of the Road.””
Future changes in seasonal sea-level variability could reshape coastal ecosystems
Hermans, T., Fivash, G., & van Belzen, J. (2026) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02631-y · Cited by 3
“0) 17 , the range of the annual cycle will increase by several centimetres in most coastal regions 9 .”
Triple-goal governance of urban agglomerations under SDG 11: A causal inference and deep reinforcement learning framework
Fu, Z., Qiu, B.-F., Zhang, S., Ma, Y., & Wang, T.-L. (2026) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148510 · Cited by 3
Parameterizations of human activities in paleoclimate modeling: Current status and future perspectives
ZHANG, X., Wang, F., ZHENG, J., Li, S., & Ge, Q. (2026) · Science China Earth Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11430-025-1877-y · Cited by 3
“Variables such as GHG concentrations and land-use change were typically prescribed as boundary conditions in climate models (Hurtt et al., 2020; Li, 2020; Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Benchmarking process-based SWAT and customized LSTM rainfall-runoff models for the climate change impact assessment on the streamflow of the Upper Meghna River Basin
Rahaman, K. M. A., Islam, A. K. M. S., Hussain, M. A., Islam, G. M. T., Basher, M. A., & Tasnim, Z. (2026) · Journal of Water and Climate Change · doi:10.2166/wcc.2026.256 · Cited by 3
Can soil moisture and nutrient monitoring tools contribute to climate-smart smallholder irrigation? A modelling approach in Zimbabwe
Moyo, M., Akinseye, F. M., van Rooyen, A., Bjørnlund, H., Parry, K., Pittock, J., Ramshaw, P., Mujeyi, A. C., Dube, T., & Dube, F. (2026) · Agricultural Water Management · doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110272 · Cited by 3
Growth in Production and Environmental Deposition of Trifluoroacetic Acid Due To Long‐Lived CFC Replacements and Anesthetics
Hart, L., Hossaini, R., Wild, O., Mazzeo, A., Halsall, C. J., Hou, X., Wang, Z., Chipperfield, M. P., Arduini, J., Krummel, P. B., et al. (2026) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2025gl119216 · Cited by 7
“…(Table S1 in Supporting Information S1) and the full range of HFC concentrations projected under the shared socio‐economic pathways reported by Meinshausen et al. (2020), we calculate that TFA production from HFCs in 2050 will be between 6.7 Gg/yr (SSP1‐1.9) and 42.5 Gg/yr (SSP5‐8.5; see…”
InfluentialSelf-citation
Projecting nitrous oxide over the 21st century, uncertainty related to stratospheric loss
Prather, M. J., & Wilson, C. P. (2026) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.2524123123 · Cited by 3
“42) and an IPCC recommended value of –5%.”
Influential
A global assessment of areas suitable for Ulva prolifera growth and expansion under climate change scenarios.
Feng, G., Wang, J.-W., Xia, L., Lei, Y., Tan, S., Qin, Y.-T., Ji, H.-H., He, P., & Zhang, J.-H. (2026) · Harmful Algae · doi:10.1016/j.hal.2026.103085 · Cited by 3
Life on New Earth: biodiversity change and humanity in a novel future.
Lyon, C., Gordon, J. D., Fagan, B. T., Gillson, L., Hatfield, J., Kabora, T., Martins, I. S., Pettersson, H. L., Redeker, K., Stringer, L. C., et al. (2026) · Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2024.0426 · Cited by 3
Quantifying agricultural N 2 O and CH 4 emissions in the Netherlands using an airborne eddy covariance system
Waldmann, P., Eckl, M., Knez, L., Gottschaldt, K.-D., Fiehn, A., Mallaun, C., Gałkowski, M., Kiemle, C., Hutjes, R., Röckmann, T., et al. (2026) · Atmospheric measurement techniques · doi:10.5194/amt-19-185-2026 · Cited by 5
“…relevant in a decarbonized future, as its concentrations will not decrease until the end of this century, even in the most optimistic SSP scenario (Meinshausen et al., 2020 In fact, agriculture is the largest single anthropogenic source of both CH 4 and N 2 O emissions, according to BU and TD…”
Influential
Assessment of the impacts of anthropogenic ozone precursors on domestic and transboundary ozone concentrations using a high-resolution global chemistry model
Goto, D., Yashiro, H., Yamashita, Y., Takigawa, M., Sudo, K., Uchida, J., Yumimoto, K., & Takemura, T. (2026) · Progress in Earth and Planetary Science · doi:10.1186/s40645-025-00791-7 · Cited by 3
“Model evaluation was performed on the basis of observations from 2018, although the emission inventories were from 2015 according to the protocol of the S-20 project by the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund and the base year of the SSP scenario (Meinshausen et al. 2020).”
Protected areas serve as climate refugia by reducing thermal stress in lizards
Anderson, R. C. O., & Chapple, D. G. (2026) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111525 · Cited by 3
Understanding the Drivers of Carbon–Nitrogen Cycle Variability in CMIP6 ESMs With MAGICC CNit v2.0: Model and Calibration Updates
Tang, G., Zaehle, S., Nicholls, Z., Norton, A., Ziehn, T., & Meinshausen, M. (2026) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2025ms005270 · Cited by 3
“Briefly, we prescribed the land surface global‐mean temperature (derived from the ESM output variable tas) and atmospheric CO 2 concentration (from input4MIPs (Meinshausen et al., 2017, 2020)) to drive CNit.”
Self-citation

Authors: Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., & Wang, R. H. J.
Affiliations: The University of Melbourne (AU)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
ETH Zurich (CH)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
Empa (CH)
Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
Utrecht University (NL)
Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
Corresponding author: Meinshausen, Malte
Gidden, Matthew J.
Vogel, Elisabeth
Beyerle, Urs
Gessner, Claudia
Nauels, Alexander
Canadell, Josep G.
Krummel, Paul B.
Luderer, Gunnar
Montzka, Stephen A.
Rayner, Peter J.
Reimann, Stefan
Smith, Steven J.
Velders, Guus J. M.
Vollmer, Martin K.
Wang, Ray H. J.
ORCID: Meinshausen, Malte
Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.
Lewis, Jared
Gidden, Matthew J.
Vogel, Elisabeth
Freund, Mandy
Beyerle, Urs
Gessner, Claudia
Nauels, Alexander
Bauer, Nico
Canadell, Josep G.
Daniel, John S.
John, Andrew
Krummel, Paul B.
Luderer, Gunnar
Montzka, Stephen A.
Rayner, Peter J.
Reimann, Stefan
Smith, Steven J.
van den Berg, Marten
Velders, Guus J. M.
Vollmer, Martin K.
Wang, Ray H. J.
Venue: Geoscientific Model Development
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Published: 2020-08-13
Volume: 13
Issue: 8
Pages: 3571-3605
ISSN: 1991-959X (ISSN-L)
1991-9603
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020
OpenAlex: W3048501727
Cited by: 1,815
References: 78
Citations by year: 2026: 288 · 2025: 412 · 2024: 396 · 2023: 336 · 2022: 241 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 33
FWCI: 66.93
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Geoscientific model development (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
DORA Empa (Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion)
Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
RENATE (cc-by)
ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
Funders: Australian Research Council (FT130100809)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, greenhouse gas concentrations, long-lived greenhouse gases, radiative forcing, fossil fuel emissions, land use change emissions, net-negative emissions, non-CO2 emissions, surface air temperature, RCP scenarios

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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

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