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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

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Meinshausen, Malte, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Lewis, Jared, Gidden, Matthew J., Vogel, Elisabeth, Freund, Mandy, Beyerle, Urs, Gessner, Claudia, Nauels, Alexander, Bauer, Nico, Canadell, Josep G., Daniel, John S., John, Andrew, Krummel, Paul B., Luderer, Gunnar, Meinshausen, Nicolai, Montzka, Stephen A., Rayner, Peter J., Reimann, Stefan, Smith, Steven J., van den Berg, Marten, Velders, Guus J. M., Vollmer, Martin K., Wang, Ray H. J.·2020·Geoscientific Model Development

DOI 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020

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Abstract

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘ C warming on the other.

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A food system transformation pathway reconciles 1.5 °C global warming with improved health, environment and social inclusion
Bodirsky, B. L., Beier, F., Humpenöder, F., Leip, D., Crawford, M., Chen, D. M.-C., von Jeetze, P., Springmann, M., Soergel, B., Nicholls, Z., et al. (2025) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-025-01268-y · Cited by 35
Self-citation
A global perspective on the spatial representation of climate extremes from km-scale models
Brunner, L., Poschlod, B., Dutra, E., Fischer, E. M., Martius, O., & Sillmann, J. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ade1ef · Cited by 17
“0 (Meinshausen et al 2020).”
Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot
Munday, G., JONES, C. D., Steinert, N. J., Mathison, C., Burke, E., Smith, C., Huntingford, C., Varney, R., & Wiltshire, A. J. (2025) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02327-9 · Cited by 12
“We extend the IMPs examined in this study from 2100 to 2300 following the methodology designed by Meinhausen et al. 51 , which was also used previously to extend the shared socioeconomic pathway simulations.”
Projecting the impacts of climate change on soybean production and water requirements using AquaCrop model
Barrera, W., Maucieri, C., Borin, M., Morbidini, F., Pogačar, T., Flajšman, M., Ghinassi, G., Verdi, L., Marta, A. D., & Ferrise, R. (2025) · European Journal of Agronomy · doi:10.1016/j.eja.2025.127538 · Cited by 17
The large role of declining atmospheric sulfate deposition and rising CO 2 concentrations in stimulating future wetland CH 4 emissions
Shen, L., Peng, S., Zhang, Z., Tong, C., Lin, J., Li, Y., Zhong, H., Ma, S., Zhuang, M., & Gauci, V. (2025) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adn1056 · Cited by 14
Identification of critical drought thresholds affecting vegetation on the Mongolian Plateau
Li, H., Hu, Y.-F., & Ao, Z. (2024) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112507 · Cited by 17
Can limiting global temperature rise to below 2°C warming prevent the emergence of unprecedented drought?
Ji, Y., Fu, J., Liu, B., & Tan, X. (2024) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110047 · Cited by 19
Projected changes of compound droughts and heatwaves in China under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming
Liu, T., Zhang, Y.-Q., Guo, B., Yin, Y., & Ge, J. (2024) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-024-07215-0 · Cited by 17
“It integrates shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to develop more comprehensive climate prediction scenarios (Meinshausen et al. 2020).”
Simulating soil C dynamics under intensive agricultural systems and climate change scenarios in the Matopiba region, Brazil
Santos, R. S., Zhang, Y., Cotrufo, M. F., Hong, M., Oliveira, D. M. S., Damian, J. M., & Cerri, C. E. P. (2023) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119149 · Cited by 18
A novel dynamic rockfall susceptibility model including precipitation, temperature and snowmelt predictors: a case study in Aosta Valley (northern Italy)
Bajni, G., Camera, C., & Apuani, T. (2023) · Landslides · doi:10.1007/s10346-023-02091-x · Cited by 17
Prediction of Potential Distribution Patterns of Three Larix Species on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Future Climate Scenarios
An, X.-H., Huang, T.-S., Zhang, H.-Y., Yue, J.-W., & Zhao, B.-J. (2023) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f14051058 · Cited by 17
Climate uncertainty impacts on optimal mitigation pathways and social cost of carbon
Smith, C., Khourdajie, A. A., Yang, P., & Folini, D. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acedc6 · Cited by 26
“0 uses the Meinshausen et al [37] relationship of ERF from concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O which includes radiative band overlaps between gases.”
MethodInfluential
The Ocean Carbon and Acidification Data System
Jiang, L., Kozyr, A., Relph, J., Ronje, E. I., Kamb, L., Burger, E., Myer, J., Nguyen, L., Arzayus, K., Boyer, T., et al. (2023) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/s41597-023-02042-0 · Cited by 17
Envisioning a sustainable future for space launches: a review of current research and policy
Brown, T. F. M., Bannister, M. T., & Revell, L. E. (2023) · Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand · doi:10.1080/03036758.2022.2152467 · Cited by 27
“Future launch scenarios would need to be constructed against the backdrop of changing atmospheric composition, given that greenhouse gas concentrations are projected to increase in future under most scenarios (Meinshausen et al. 2020) and stratospheric chlorine and bromine are projected to decrease.”
Background
Optimizing the sowing window for direct-seeded rice (Oryza sativa L.) considering high yield and methane emissions in Central China
Zhou, Z., Jin, J., Liu, J., & Si, Y. (2022) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103594 · Cited by 18
Operationalizing climate risk in a global warming hotspot
Boyce, D. G., Tittensor, D. P., Fuller, S., Henson, S., Kaschner, K., Reygondeau, G., Schleit, K. E., Saba, V. S., Shackell, N. L., Stanley, R. R. E., et al. (2024) · npj Ocean Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s44183-024-00067-5 · Cited by 21
“6 (Sustainability; ‘ taking the green road) represents an increase in sustainable development 113 .”
Bayesian retro- and prospective assessment of CMIP6 climatology in Pan Third Pole region
Liu, Z., Duan, Q., Fan, X.-W., Li, W., & Yin, J. (2022) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06345-7 · Cited by 17
Influence of Ozone Forcing on 21st Century Southern Hemisphere Surface Westerlies in CMIP6 Models
Revell, L., Robertson, F., Douglas, H., Morgenstern, O., & Frame, D. (2022) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl098252 · Cited by 17
Stratospheric Fluorine as a Tracer of Circulation Changes: Comparison Between Infrared Remote‐Sensing Observations and Simulations With Five Modern Reanalyses
Prignon, M., Chabrillat, S., Friedrich, M., Smale, D., Strahan, S., Bernath, P., Chipperfield, M., Dhomse, S., Feng, W., Minganti, D., et al. (2021) · Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2021jd034995 · Cited by 17
“(2017) in the framework of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments, and their extension for the years 2016–2018 (using scenario SSP2-4.5; Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
MethodInfluential
The Overlooked Role of the Stratosphere Under a Solar Constant Reduction
Bednarz, E. M., Visioni, D., Banerjee, A., Braesicke, P., Kravitz, B., & MacMartin, D. G. (2022) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl098773 · Cited by 17
“, 2015), whereby the surface temperature increase from rising GHGs following the SSP5-85 scenario (Meinshausen et al., 2020) is offset to reach temperatures under the intermediate SSP2-4.”
Background
Global stability of the Atlantic overturning circulation: edge state, long transients and boundary crisis under CO2 forcing.
Börner, R., Mehling, O., von Hardenberg, J., & Lucarini, V. (2025) · Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2025.0087 · Cited by 16
Substantial nitrogen abatement accompanying decarbonization suppresses terrestrial carbon sinks in China
Shang, F., Liu, M.-X., Song, Y., Lu, X.-J., Zhang, Q., Matsui, H., Liu, L.-L., Ding, A.-J., Huang, X., Liu, X.-J., et al. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-52152-5 · Cited by 16
Climate change causes spatial shifts in the productivity of agricultural long-term field experiments
Donmez, C., Sahingoz, M., Paul, C., Çilek, A., Hoffmann, C., Berberoglu, S., Webber, H., & Helming, K. (2024) · European Journal of Agronomy · doi:10.1016/j.eja.2024.127121 · Cited by 16
Transferring climate change physical knowledge
Immorlano, F., Eyring, V., de Gouville, T. L. M., Accarino, G., Elia, D., Mandt, S., Aloisio, G., & Gentine, P. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.2413503122 · Cited by 16
“It was introduced by Meinshausen et al. (88) to represent radiative forcing after stratospheric adjustments, relative to preindustrial (1750) levels, and is an optimized modification of the simplified formula presented by Etminan et al. (89). where: BEST Observational Data.”
Covering rice demand in Southern China under decreasing cropping intensities and considering multiple climate and population scenarios
Zhou, Z., Jin, J., Liu, J., & Si, Y. (2023) · Sustainable Production and Consumption · doi:10.1016/j.spc.2023.06.008 · Cited by 13
Changes in compound flood event frequency in northern and central Europe under climate change
Heinrich, P., Hagemann, S., Weisse, R., & Gaslikova, L. (2023) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2023.1227613 · Cited by 16
FaIRGP: A Bayesian Energy Balance Model for Surface Temperatures Emulation
Bouabid, S., Sejdinović, D., & Watson‐Parris, D. (2024) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2023ms003926 · Cited by 20
Optical observations and spatio-temporal projections of gelatinous zooplankton in the Fram Strait, a gateway to a changing Arctic Ocean
Pantiukhin, D., Verhaegen, G., Kraan, C., Jerosch, K., Neitzel, P., Hoving, H., & Havermans, C. (2023) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2023.987700 · Cited by 16
“We projected the JSDM results onto the environmental grids obtained from the FESOM simulations using the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenario SSP245, which represents a medium level emissions scenario (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Method
Meta-analysis of the impact of future climate change on the area of woody plant habitats in China
Tian, P.-P., Liu, Y.-F., & Ou, J. (2023) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2023.1139739 · Cited by 16
“Frontiers in Plant Science 09 social factors and measures for future climate change mitigation (Lauri et al., 2019; Wu et al., 2019; Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Background
Modern air-sea flux distributions reduce uncertainty in the future ocean carbon sink
McKinley, G., Bennington, V., Meinshausen, M., & Nicholls, Z. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acc195 · Cited by 16
“5), the CO 2 concentration in 2100 is 1135.2 ppm (Meinshausen et al 2020).”
InfluentialSelf-citation
Predicting the growth suitability of Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr based on site index under different climatic scenarios
Cheng, R.-R., Zhang, J., Wang, X., Ge, Z.-X., & Zhang, Z. (2023) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2023.1097688 · Cited by 16
“To assess future global climate change, the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) developed an emission scenario combining a shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) and a typical concentration pathway, and this method has been proven to be reasonable (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Background
Coastal inundation scenarios in the north-eastern sector of the Island of Gozo (Malta, Mediterranean Sea) as a response to sea level rise
Vandelli, V., Sarkar, N., Micallef, A. S., Soldati, M., & Rizzo, A. (2022) · Journal of maps · doi:10.1080/17445647.2022.2145918 · Cited by 16
Mapping the Distribution and Dispersal Risks of the Alien Invasive Plant Ageratina adenophora in China
Zhang, X., Wang, Y.-R., Peng, P., Wang, G.-Y., Zhao, G.-Y., Zhou, Y.-X., & Tang, Z. (2022) · Diversity · doi:10.3390/d14110915 · Cited by 16
“…for model simulation under the future climate scenario as they combine factors affecting local development and a higher climate sensitivity [67 In addition, two periods were chosen to predict the Environmental variables are important parameters in the construction of species distribution…”
Influences of Antarctic Ozone Depletion on Southern Ocean Aerosols
Bhatti, Y., Revell, L., & McDonald, A. (2022) · Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2022jd037199 · Cited by 16
Anthropogenic Carbon Increase has Caused Critical Shifts in Aragonite Saturation Across a Sensitive Coastal System
Jarníková, T., Ianson, D., Allen, S. E., Shao, A. E., & Olson, E. M. (2022) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2021gb007024 · Cited by 40
Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5
Vargin, P., Kostrykin, S., Volodin, E. M., Pogoreltsev, A., & Wei, K. (2021) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos13010025 · Cited by 16
Upper stratospheric ClO and HOCl trends (2005–2020): Aura Microwave Limb Sounder and model results
Froidevaux, L., Kinnison, D., Santee, M., Millán, L., Livesey, N., Read, W., Bardeen, C., Orlando, J., & Fuller, R. (2021) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-880 · Cited by 16
“…gas and organic halogen inputs follow the CMIP6 SSP2-45 scenario that projects inputs beyond 2014 (O’Neill et al., 2016; Riahi et al., 2017; Meinshausen et al., 2020), the SPEs are derived from the Geostationary Observational Environmental Satellites (GOES) proton fluxes (Jackman et al.,…”
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Maliniemi, V., Tyssøy, H. N., Smith-Johnsen, C., Arsenović, P., & Marsh, D. (2021) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 · Cited by 16
Assessing the past and future dynamics of the Asian summer monsoon: Insights from palaeomonsoon synthesis and CMIP6 data
Shekhar, M., Sharma, A., Pandey, P., Sharma, A., & Dimri, A. (2024) · Global Environmental Change Advances · doi:10.1016/j.gecadv.2023.100004 · Cited by 16
Mosquito and global dengue cases in a warming world
Hu, J., Horton, B., Yeo, T., Sung, J. J. Y., & Steve, Y. H. L. (2025) · BMJ Global Health · doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014688 · Cited by 15
Tropical upper-tropospheric trends in ozone and carbon monoxide (2005–2020): observational and model results
Froidevaux, L., Kinnison, D. E., Gaubert, B., Schwartz, M., Livesey, N. J., Read, W. G., Bardeen, C., Ziemke, J. R., & Fuller, R. A. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-597-2025 · Cited by 18
Management strategies for shrinking and aging tree plantations are constrained by the synergies and trade-offs between carbon sequestration and other forest ecosystem services.
Toriyama, J., Hashimoto, S., Nakao, K., Saitoh, T. M., Nishizono, T., Uchiyama, K., Araki, M. G., Murakami, W., & Hirata, Y. (2024) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123762 · Cited by 15
Projecting temperature-related dengue burden in the Philippines under various socioeconomic pathway scenarios
Seposo, X. T., Valenzuela, S., Apostol, G. L. C., Wangkay, K. A., Lao, P. E., & Enriquez, A. B. (2024) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2024.1420457 · Cited by 15
Current and future cropland suitability for cereal production across the rainfed agricultural landscapes of Ethiopia
Wakjira, M. T., Peleg, N., Six, J., & Molnár, P. (2024) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110262 · Cited by 18
Dam Siltation in the Mediterranean Region Under Climate Change: A Case Study of Ahmed El Hansali Dam, Morocco
Mosaid, H., Barakat, A., Bouras, E. H., Ismaili, M., Elgarnaoui, M., Abdelrahman, K., & Kahal, A. (2024) · Water · doi:10.3390/w16213108 · Cited by 15
Quantifying the impact of climate change and extreme heat on rice in the United States
Li, S.-N., Fleisher, D., & Barnaby, J. (2024) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110145 · Cited by 15
Assessing small hydropower viability in water-scarce regions: environmental flow and climate change impacts using a SWAT+ based tool
García, X., Estrada, L., Llorente, O., & Acuña, V. (2024) · Environmental Sciences Europe · doi:10.1186/s12302-024-00938-1 · Cited by 15
“…represents a plausible future management strategy, particularly under SSP370, reflecting potential outcomes if current emission trends persist [29], and focusing on the near-term period (2025–2049), our analysis reveals a projected reduction in monthly average hydropower production to 52.01…”
BackgroundInfluential
Climate influence on future suitability of high-altitude wetlands in two natural protected areas from the Central Andes of Argentina
Vento, B., Rivera, J., & Ontivero, M. (2024) · Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.pecon.2024.04.006 · Cited by 15
Application and Prospects of Ni–Mn-Based Layered Oxide Cathodes for Sodium-Ion Batteries
Liu, Z., Li, B.-W., Ma, K., Lu, J., Wang, Q., Su, H., Hu, X., Gao, J.-X., Xu, Q., & Guo, H. (2024) · ACS Applied Energy Materials · doi:10.1021/acsaem.4c00097 · Cited by 15
Defining severe risks related to mobility from climate change
Gilmore, E., Wrathall, D. J., Adams, H., Buhaug, H., Castellanos, E. J., Hilmi, N., McLeman, R. A., Singh, C., & Adelekan, I. (2024) · Climate Risk Management · doi:10.1016/j.crm.2024.100601 · Cited by 18
Satellite derived trends and variability of CO2 concentrations in the Middle East during 2014–2023
Fonseca, R., & Francis, D. (2024) · Frontiers in Environmental Science · doi:10.3389/fenvs.2023.1289142 · Cited by 15
Multilevel emission impacts of electrification and coal pathways in China’s net-zero transition
Gong, C. C., Ueckerdt, F., Bertram, C., Yin, Y., Bantje, D., Pietzcker, R., Hoppe, J., Hasse, R., Pehl, M., Moreno-Leiva, S., et al. (2025) · Joule · doi:10.1016/j.joule.2025.101945 · Cited by 15
Self-citation
Stocktake of G20 countries’ climate pledges reveals limited macroeconomic costs and employment shifts
Garaffa, R., Weitzel, M., Vandyck, T., Keramidas, K., Dowling, P., Fosse, F., Tchung-Ming, S., Ana, D. V., Ruß, P., Schade, B., et al. (2023) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2023.10.012 · Cited by 18
Future changes in wind energy resources in Egypt under Paris climate agreements’ goals
Gebaly, A. M. E., Nashwan, M. S., Khadr, W., & Shahid, S. (2023) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-023-02039-w · Cited by 15
Paris Agreement could prevent regional mass extinctions of coral species
Couce, E., Cowburn, B., Clare, D., & Bluemel, J. K. (2023) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16690 · Cited by 15

Authors: Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., & Wang, R. H. J.
Affiliations: The University of Melbourne (AU)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
ETH Zurich (CH)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
Empa (CH)
Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
Utrecht University (NL)
Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
Corresponding author: Meinshausen, Malte
Gidden, Matthew J.
Vogel, Elisabeth
Beyerle, Urs
Gessner, Claudia
Nauels, Alexander
Canadell, Josep G.
Krummel, Paul B.
Luderer, Gunnar
Montzka, Stephen A.
Rayner, Peter J.
Reimann, Stefan
Smith, Steven J.
Velders, Guus J. M.
Vollmer, Martin K.
Wang, Ray H. J.
ORCID: Meinshausen, Malte
Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.
Lewis, Jared
Gidden, Matthew J.
Vogel, Elisabeth
Freund, Mandy
Beyerle, Urs
Gessner, Claudia
Nauels, Alexander
Bauer, Nico
Canadell, Josep G.
Daniel, John S.
John, Andrew
Krummel, Paul B.
Luderer, Gunnar
Montzka, Stephen A.
Rayner, Peter J.
Reimann, Stefan
Smith, Steven J.
van den Berg, Marten
Velders, Guus J. M.
Vollmer, Martin K.
Wang, Ray H. J.
Venue: Geoscientific Model Development
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Published: 2020-08-13
Volume: 13
Issue: 8
Pages: 3571-3605
ISSN: 1991-959X (ISSN-L)
1991-9603
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020
OpenAlex: W3048501727
Cited by: 1,815
References: 78
Citations by year: 2026: 288 · 2025: 412 · 2024: 396 · 2023: 336 · 2022: 241 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 33
FWCI: 66.93
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Geoscientific model development (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
DORA Empa (Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion)
Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
RENATE (cc-by)
ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
Funders: Australian Research Council (FT130100809)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, greenhouse gas concentrations, long-lived greenhouse gases, radiative forcing, fossil fuel emissions, land use change emissions, net-negative emissions, non-CO2 emissions, surface air temperature, RCP scenarios

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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

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