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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

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Meinshausen, Malte, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Lewis, Jared, Gidden, Matthew J., Vogel, Elisabeth, Freund, Mandy, Beyerle, Urs, Gessner, Claudia, Nauels, Alexander, Bauer, Nico, Canadell, Josep G., Daniel, John S., John, Andrew, Krummel, Paul B., Luderer, Gunnar, Meinshausen, Nicolai, Montzka, Stephen A., Rayner, Peter J., Reimann, Stefan, Smith, Steven J., van den Berg, Marten, Velders, Guus J. M., Vollmer, Martin K., Wang, Ray H. J.·2020·Geoscientific Model Development

DOI 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020

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Abstract

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘ C warming on the other.

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de Carvalho, F. V., Alves, M. D. C., & de Carvalho, L. G. (2024) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-024-04979-7 · Cited by 6
“6 scenario (from the SSP1 family) considers sustainable development, being one of the of the high-priority scenarios for the Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)ofIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange (IPPC) (Meinshausen et al. 2020).”
Predicting the effect of climate change on the geographic range of the Mediterranean relict tree Liquidambar orientalis Mill
Kenar, N. (2024) · Nordic Journal of Botany · doi:10.1111/njb.04250 · Cited by 6
Coupled Stratospheric Ozone and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Feedbacks on the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Jet Response to 4xCO2
Orbe, C., Rind, D., Waugh, D., Jonas, J., Zhang, X.-Y., Chiodo, G., Nazarenko, L., & Schmidt, G. (2024) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-23-0119.1 · Cited by 6
Enhancing Understanding of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria in West Africa Using the Vector-Borne Disease Community Model of the International Center for Theoretical Physics (VECTRI) and the Bias-Corrected Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Data (CMIP6)
Fall, P., Diouf, I., Dème, A., Diouf, S., Sène, D., Sultan, B., & Janicot, S. (2023) · Microbiology Research · doi:10.3390/microbiolres14040145 · Cited by 9
Assessing Potential Evapotranspiration Methods in Future Drought Projections across Canada
Tam, B. Y., Bonsal, B., Zhang, X., Zhang, Q.-X., & Rong, R. (2023) · ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN · doi:10.1080/07055900.2023.2288632 · Cited by 6
“The SSP-based scenarios, which span a range from very ambitious mitigation to ongoing growth in emissions, served as input for CMIP6 projections (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Method
Warming increases the differences among spring phenology models under future climate change
Mo, Y.-H., Li, X.-R., Guo, Y.-H., & Fu, Y.-S. H. (2023) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2023.1266801 · Cited by 6
Projected Changes in Precipitation Based on the CMIP6 Optimal Multi-Model Ensemble in the Pearl River Basin, China
He, M.-M., Chen, Y., Sun, H., & Liu, J. (2023) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs15184608 · Cited by 6
The emergence of a new wintertime Arctic energy balance regime
Miyawaki, O., Shaw, T., & Jansen, M. (2023) · Environmental Research: Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/aced63 · Cited by 6
International climate targets are achievable, but only in models, not in the real world
Thompson, R. (2023) · The Anthropocene Review · doi:10.1177/20530196231177686 · Cited by 4
“12 in Blichner and Berntsen (2023) Temperature response in early 2100s by non-CO2 components ΔT ′′Non-CO2 1°C Meinshausen et al. (2020); middle-of-the-road SSP outputs”
Background
Changes in the distribution of annual maximum temperatures in Europe
Auld, G., Hegerl, G., & Papastathopoulos, I. (2023) · Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography · doi:10.5194/ascmo-9-45-2023 · Cited by 6
“For atmospheric CO2 concentration, we use data from the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP), compiled in Meinshausen et al. (2020).”
Method
Biogeography of the theileriosis vector, Rhipicephalus appendiculatus under current and future climate scenarios of Zimbabwe
Nemaungwe, T. M., van Dalen, E. V., Waniwa, E., Makaya, P., Chikowore, G., & Chidawanyika, F. (2023) · Experimental & applied acarology · doi:10.1007/s10493-023-00796-1 · Cited by 6
Conservation challenges to the useful neotropical palm Babaçu (Attalea pindobassu Bondar) in the face of climate change
Menezes, I. S., Rocha, D. S. B., Voeks, R. A., do Couto-Santos, A. P. L., & Funch, L. S. (2023) · Flora · doi:10.1016/j.flora.2023.152262 · Cited by 8
Predicting Changes in Forest Growing Season (FGS) in the Transitional Climate of Poland on the Basis of Current Grid Datasets
Wertz, B., & Wilczyński, S. (2022) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f13122019 · Cited by 7
Future evolution of global land surface air temperature trend based on CMIP6 models
Wu, W., Ji, F., Hu, S.-J., He, Y., Wei, Y., Xu, Z.-H., & Yu, H.-P. (2022) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.7668 · Cited by 6
Land-use change causes rapid carbon losses in Congo Basin peatlands across climate scenarios, whereas the effects of climate change alone are uncertain.
Young, D. M., Baird, A., Morris, P., Burke, E. J., Smith, C., Ramírez, J., Dargie, G., Boom, A., Betts, R. A., Bocko, Y., et al. (2026) · Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2024.0486 · Cited by 5
Future Retreat of Great Aletsch Glacier and Hintereisferner – application of a full-Stokes model to two valley glaciers in the European Alps
Rückamp, M., Cheng, G., Gutjahr, K., Möller, M., Pellikka, P. K. E., & Mayer, C. (2026) · The Cryosphere · doi:10.5194/tc-20-2999-2026 · Cited by 5
“5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Modeling water-nitrogen management for maize production and greenhouse gas emissions in arid Northwestern China using the DNDC model
Yang, R., Zhang, J.-X., Yin, M., Tian, P., Du, L.-L., Xie, Y., Ding, L., Yang, Y.-G., Li, Q.-Z., Xiao, J., et al. (2026) · Field crops research (Print) · doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2026.110356 · Cited by 5
Forecasting Climate Change Using a Multivariate Cointegrated System
Castle, J. L., Doornik, J., Hendry, D. F., & Jackson, L. P. (2026) · Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1111/obes.70047 · Cited by 5
Anthropogenically Stimulated Carbonate Dissolution in the Global Shelf Seafloor Is Potentially an Important and Fast Climate Feedback
van de Velde, S. J., Vervoort, P., Smith, R. O., Law, C., & Currie, K. (2026) · AGU Advances · doi:10.1029/2025av001865 · Cited by 5
“For each, a concentration‐driven control simulation is run for 350 years with p CO 2 restored to historical values (Meinshausen et al., 2017) followed by their respective future prediction of p CO 2 between the years 1750 and 2100 (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Soil organic carbon modeling in cropland under several climatic scenarios using machine learning in western India
Adeel, A., Hasani, M., & Jadhav, A. S. (2026) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-026-35191-4 · Cited by 5
Policy solutions to better assess progress toward Paris goals given warming-induced ecosystem emissions, which shorten timelines by 2–5 years
Buma, B., Frumhoff, P. C., Rogers, B., Sartzetakis, S., Phillips, C. A., Schädel, C., Treharne, R., Natali, S., Alpert, A., Goldberg, M., et al. (2026) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101571 · Cited by 5
Self-citation
Precession-induced millennial climate cycles in greenhouse Cretaceous
Zhang, Z.-F., Huang, Y.-J., Wang, T.-T., Yin, Q., da Silva, A.-C., Lee, E., Yang, H., Ma, C., Cheng, H., Berger, A., et al. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-66219-4 · Cited by 5
“Future carbon emission scenarios project atmospheric CO ₂ levelsapproaching800ppmby2100 52 ,comparabletoCampanian baselines.”
Increasing extreme heat events in the permafrost region of the Northern Hemisphere
Feng, H., Su, B., Duan, J.-P., Zhao, H., Zhang, T., & Xiao, C. (2025) · Advances in Climate Change Research · doi:10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.001 · Cited by 6
AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations
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“The computational efﬁciency of RCMs allows for the impact on GMST to be quantiﬁed for ensembles with hundreds of thousands of combinations for the RF due to GHGs, aerosols, and climate feedback .”
Influential
Assessing economic impacts of future GLOFs in Nepal's Everest region under different SSP scenarios using three-dimensional simulations
Furian, W., & Sauter, T. (2025) · Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-25-3779-2025 · Cited by 5
“To consider future socio-economic and political scenarios, we utilize two pathways from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Influential
Genomic Basis and Climate Change Vulnerability of Migration Timing in Atlantic Salmon ( Salmo salar )
Beck, S. V., Kess, T., Nugent, C. M., Dempson, J. B., Chaput, G., Arno, H. E., Duffy, S., Smith, N. C. P., Bentzen, P., Kent, M., et al. (2025) · Evolutionary Applications · doi:10.1111/eva.70148 · Cited by 5
“…was extracted from the CanESM5 CMIP6 climate projections from the WorldClim data-base with 2.5 arc-minutes spatial resolution (Eyring et al. 2016; Meinshausen et al. 2020; Swart et al. 2019) and standardized relative to present-day climate data across most of the distribution of Atlantic salmon…”
Influential
Progress and future directions in constraining uncertainties in sea-level projections using observations
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“For future emissions, AR6 relied mainly on Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 24 , although some physical process modelling relied on the older Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 25 used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).”
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Sea level trajectories and recent records at Australian tide gauges
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“…are key pathways in climate modelling, used to explore potential futures for green-house gas (GHG) emissions, radiative forcing, and societal development (O’Neill et al. 2016, Meinshausen et al. 2020; Feyissa et al. 2024; Sarkar and Maity 2024; Isinkaralar 2024; Rudraswamy and Umamahesh 2024).”
Impacts of climate change on the distribution pattern of Himalayan Rhubarb (Rheum australe D. Don) in Nepal Himalaya
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“In the emission scenario SSP585, it has been speculated that the radiative forcing increases to 8.5 W/m 2 with the very high concentration of greenhouse gas representing a composite scenario of an energy-intensive socio-economic development path [54,55].”
Influential
SURFER v3.0: a fast model with ice sheet tipping points and carbon cycle feedbacks for short- and long-term climate scenarios
Couplet, V., Montero, M. M., & Crucifix, M. (2025) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025 · Cited by 5
“For emissions between 2100 and 2300, we use the SSP extensions described in Meinshausen et al. (2020).”
Influential
Potential distribution of the weaver ant Oecophylla under current and future climate
Ma, R., Zhang, L.-L., Yang, L., & He, H. (2025) · Pest Management Science · doi:10.1002/ps.8887 · Cited by 5
Synthesizing global carbon–nitrogen coupling effects – the MAGICC coupled carbon–nitrogen cycle model v1.0
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“…of variable climate sensitivities and the updated carbon cycle (Meinshausen et al., 2011a); the incorporation of a sea level model (Nauels et al., 2017); and various improvements over time with regard to, for example, radiative forcing schemes (Meinshausen et al., 2020). its latest calibration”
Self-citation
Incorporating Drought Thresholds Improves Model Predictions of Autumn Phenology in Tropical and Subtropical Forests
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“…(GFDL-CM4, BCC- CSM2-MR, CMCC-ESM2): SSP245, representing a moderate mitigation pathway with a total radiative forcing of approximately 4.5 W/m 2 , and SSP585, representing the highest greenhouse gas emissions scenario with a radiative forcing of approximately 8.5 W/m 2 (Meinshausen et al. 2020).”
Influential
Composite model-based estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022
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Modelling the current and future geographical distribution of Combretum glutinosum Perr. ex DC. Under climate change in Burkina Faso: Future challenges and conservation opportunities
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Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of North China Leopards (Panthera pardus japonensis) in Gansu Province Using MaxEnt Modeling
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The potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California
Brown, P. T., Strenfel, S., Bagley, R. B., & Clements, C. B. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adab86 · Cited by 5
“5 emissions pathway does not see global emissions peak until the 2040s, and a central estimate of warming by 2100 is ∼ 2.6 ◦ C (Meinshausen et al 2020).”
Influential
Land conversions not climate effects are the dominant indirect consequence of sun-driven CO2 capture, conversion, and sequestration
Adam, M., Kleinen, T., May, M. M., & Rehfeld, K. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ada971 · Cited by 2
“In experiments beyond 2100, we extend the modified CO 2 emission forcing and other greenhouse gas forcings as described by Meinshausen et al [31].”
Influential
Twenty-first century surface UV radiation changes deduced from CMIP6 models. Part II: effects on UV index and plant growth weighted irradiance
Chatzopoulou, A., Tourpali, K., Bais, A. F., & Braesicke, P. (2024) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1007/s43630-024-00676-6 · Cited by 4
Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Maize and Cotton Yields Under Different Climate Scenarios in Kırıkhan District, Türkiye
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Synergizing climate dynamics, species distribution, and structural parameters for sustainable management of Pseudrocedrela kotschyi in Benin (West Africa)
Deguenonvo, T. A. G., Adjacou, D. M., Idohou, R., Sodedja, R., Sobakin, F. E. D., Houéhanou, T., Gouwakinnou, G., & Natta, A. (2024) · Global Ecology and Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2024.e03322 · Cited by 5
Projecting atmospheric N2O rise until the end of the 21st century: an Earth System Model study
Sisto, M. L. D., Somes, C. J., Landolfi, A., & MacDougall, A. H. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad8c6c · Cited by 7
The Impact of Future Land Use Change on Carbon Emission and Its Optimization Strategy
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Current and future scenarios of suitability and expansion of cassava brown streak disease, Bemisia tabaci species complex, and cassava planting in Africa
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“Conversely, the SSP5 − 8.5 scenario represents the worst-case scenario with high fossil fuel consumption throughout the 21st century and without climate mitigation policies ( Meinshausen et al., 2020 ), resulting in global warming ranging from a low of 3.1 ◦ C to a high of 5.1 ◦ C by 2100.”
BackgroundInfluential
Climate change will likely facilitate invasion of Asian orchid Eulophia graminea into new areas
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“We predicted the future extent of E. graminea climatic niches for 2080–2100 by using four projections for four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs): 1–2.6, 2–4.5, 3–7.0 and 5–8.5 (Li et al. 2021; McGee et al. 2000; Meinshausen et al. 2020).”
Influential
Evaluating future urban temperature over smart cities of the Gangetic plains using statistically downscaled CMIP6 projections
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Human influence on the duration of extreme temperature events in Asia's hotspot regions
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Subsurface warming in the Antarctica’s Weddell Sea can be avoided by reaching the 2∘C warming target
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“The simulations include an ensemble of ﬁ ve historical simulations (hist1 to hist5, 1850 – 2014), and four climate scenarios with forcing derived from Shared Socio-economic Pathways 27 (SSP1-2.”
Global change and adaptive biosecurity: managing current and emerging Aleurocanthus woglumi threats to Europe.
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Future change of summer hypoxia in coastal California Current
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Authors: Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., & Wang, R. H. J.
Affiliations: The University of Melbourne (AU)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
ETH Zurich (CH)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
Empa (CH)
Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
Utrecht University (NL)
Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
Corresponding author: Meinshausen, Malte
Gidden, Matthew J.
Vogel, Elisabeth
Beyerle, Urs
Gessner, Claudia
Nauels, Alexander
Canadell, Josep G.
Krummel, Paul B.
Luderer, Gunnar
Montzka, Stephen A.
Rayner, Peter J.
Reimann, Stefan
Smith, Steven J.
Velders, Guus J. M.
Vollmer, Martin K.
Wang, Ray H. J.
ORCID: Meinshausen, Malte
Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.
Lewis, Jared
Gidden, Matthew J.
Vogel, Elisabeth
Freund, Mandy
Beyerle, Urs
Gessner, Claudia
Nauels, Alexander
Bauer, Nico
Canadell, Josep G.
Daniel, John S.
John, Andrew
Krummel, Paul B.
Luderer, Gunnar
Montzka, Stephen A.
Rayner, Peter J.
Reimann, Stefan
Smith, Steven J.
van den Berg, Marten
Velders, Guus J. M.
Vollmer, Martin K.
Wang, Ray H. J.
Venue: Geoscientific Model Development
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Published: 2020-08-13
Volume: 13
Issue: 8
Pages: 3571-3605
ISSN: 1991-959X (ISSN-L)
1991-9603
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020
OpenAlex: W3048501727
Cited by: 1,815
References: 78
Citations by year: 2026: 288 · 2025: 412 · 2024: 396 · 2023: 336 · 2022: 241 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 33
FWCI: 66.93
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Geoscientific model development (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
DORA Empa (Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion)
Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
RENATE (cc-by)
ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
Funders: Australian Research Council (FT130100809)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, greenhouse gas concentrations, long-lived greenhouse gases, radiative forcing, fossil fuel emissions, land use change emissions, net-negative emissions, non-CO2 emissions, surface air temperature, RCP scenarios

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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

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