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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

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Meinshausen, Malte, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Lewis, Jared, Gidden, Matthew J., Vogel, Elisabeth, Freund, Mandy, Beyerle, Urs, Gessner, Claudia, Nauels, Alexander, Bauer, Nico, Canadell, Josep G., Daniel, John S., John, Andrew, Krummel, Paul B., Luderer, Gunnar, Meinshausen, Nicolai, Montzka, Stephen A., Rayner, Peter J., Reimann, Stefan, Smith, Steven J., van den Berg, Marten, Velders, Guus J. M., Vollmer, Martin K., Wang, Ray H. J.·2020·Geoscientific Model Development

DOI 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020

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Abstract

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘ C warming on the other.

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Adaptive divergence and genetic vulnerability of relict species under climate change: a case study of Pterocarya macroptera
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Ultraviolet-B radiation stress triggers reactive oxygen species and regulates the antioxidant defense and photosynthesis systems of intertidal red algae Neoporphyra haitanensis
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“The UV-B radiation reaching the Earth’s surface is expected to continue to increase in the second half of the 21 century, which will undoubtedly have a continuous and immense impact on living organisms (Dhomse et al., 2019; Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Background
The ozone–climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100
Brown, F., Folberth, G., Sitch, S., Bauer, S., Bauters, M., Boeckx, P., Cheesman, A., Deushi, M., Vieira, I. D. S., Galy-Lacaux, C., et al. (2022) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022 · Cited by 41
“The prescribed emissions include anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of NO, CO2 and CO (Rao et al., 2017; Riahi et al., 2017) and the future pathway for CH4 is calculated as an atmospheric concentration (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Background
MaxEnt model strategies to studying current and future potential land suitability dynamics of wheat, soybean and rice cultivation under climatic change scenarios in East Asia
Ali, S., Makanda, T. A., Umair, M., & Ni, J. (2023) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0296182 · Cited by 40
“To identify highly correlated variables (|r| > 0.74) and minimize the effects of multi-collinearity and model overfitting, the person correlation coefficient method was used [34].”
MethodInfluential
Frequent but Predictable Droughts in East Africa Driven by a Walker Circulation Intensification
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“The moderate SSP245 scenario is based on projections of large increases in sustainable development and 4.5 Wm −2 of radiative forcing by 2100 (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
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Evaluation of future temperature and precipitation projections in Morocco using the ANN-based multi-model ensemble from CMIP6
Gumus, V., Moçayd, N. E., Şeker, M., & Seaid, M. (2023) · Atmospheric research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106880 · Cited by 40
Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Exposure and Impacts in Southeast Asia From CMIP6 Pseudo‐Global Warming Simulations
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“0 (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Correcting ozone biases in a global chemistry–climate model: implications for future ozone
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Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensemble
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“2), which predominately occur in the Barents Sea (Midttun, 1985; Smedsrud et al., 2013; Terhaar et al., 2020a).”
BackgroundInfluential
Evaluating the near- and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives
Ganti, G., Gasser, T., Mai, B., Geden, O., Lamb, W., Minx, J., Schleussner, C., & Gidden, M. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01527-z · Cited by 39
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Predicting the global potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus using an ecological niche model: expansion trend and the main driving factors
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“5 Fossil Fuel Pathway [48, 49].”
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“The implication here is that uncertainties associated with eTCRE differences across models are much larger than the uncertainties associated with the non-CO 2 forcing factors (e.g. aerosols, trace GHGs) and net land-use emissions, all of which differ across the SSP scenarios 24 .”
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Potential impacts of climate change on the sudan-sahel region in West Africa – Insights from Burkina Faso
Sawadogo, W., Neya, T., Semde, I., Korahiré, J. A., Combasséré, A. W., Traoré, D. E., Ouedraogo, P., Diasso, U. J., Abiodun, B. J., Bliefernicht, J., et al. (2024) · Environmental Challenges · doi:10.1016/j.envc.2024.100860 · Cited by 39
A high-resolution physical–biogeochemical model for marine resource applications in the northwest Atlantic (MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 v1.0)
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“5 emissions scenario (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Method
Life cycle assessment of co-firing coal and wood waste for bio-energy with carbon capture and storage – New South Wales study
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Volume, evolution, and sedimentation of future glacier lakes in Switzerland over the 21st century
Steffen, T., Huss, M., Estermann, R., Hodel, E., & Farinotti, D. (2022) · Earth Surface Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esurf-10-723-2022 · Cited by 39
Is Anthropogenic Global Warming Accelerating?
Jenkins, S., Povey, A. C., Gettelman, A., Grainger, R. G., Stier, P., & Allen, M. R. (2022) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0081.1 · Cited by 80
Comment on acp-2021-689
Liu, Z.-Z., Doherty, R., Wild, O., O'Connor, F., & Turnock, S. (2021) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-689-rc2
Rising Temperatures Can Negate CO2 Fertilization Effects on Global Staple Crop Yields: A Meta-Regression Analysis
Zhu, C.-W., Wolf, J., Zhang, J.-S., Anderegg, W., Bunce, J., & Ziska, L. (2023) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4386808 · Cited by 37
Increasing Vapor Pressure Deficit Accelerates Land Drying
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Rebuilding fish biomass for the world's marine ecoregions under climate change
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“Projections follow two contrasting scenarios— shared socio- economic pathway (SSP) 1— representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (SSP1- 2.6) and SSP5- 8.5 (Gütschow et al., 2021; Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
BackgroundInfluential
The applications of semiconductor materials in air batteries
Yu, Y., & Hu, S.-J. (2021) · doi:10.1016/j.cclet.2021.04.049 · Cited by 37
Warming Patterns Affect El Niño Diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
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The Turning Point of the Aerosol Era
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“The future scenario emissions are based on (Feng et al., 2020; Gidden et al., 2019; Meinshausen et al., 2020; O’Neill et al., 2016).”
Background
Answer to Christopher Smith and Ben Sanderson
Beusch, L., Nicholls, Z., Gudmundsson, L., Hauser, M., Meinshausen, M., & Seneviratne, S. (2021) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-252-ac1 · Cited by 36
Self-citation
Invasion and Extirpation Potential of Native and Invasive Spartina Species Under Climate Change
Borges, F. O., Santos, C. P., Paula, J., Mateos-Naranjo, E., Redondo-Gómez, S., Adams, J., Caçador, I., Fonseca, V., Reis-Santos, P., Duarte, B., et al. (2021) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.696333 · Cited by 36
Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands – continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum
Müller, J., & Joos, F. (2021) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021 · Cited by 36
“The trend correction was done per grid cell and month and with respect to the end of the time series Scenario CO 2 forcing was adopted from Meinshausen et al. (2020).”
The Choice of Baseline Period Influences the Assessments of the Outcomes of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
Visioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., & Goddard, P. B. (2023) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef003851 · Cited by 35
“Here we have focused on the amount of cooling that SO2 is chosen to produce, a method that is similar to the scenario exploration under different GHG concentrations in the IPCC scenarios (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Method
Cool shade and not‐so‐cool shade: How habitat loss may accelerate thermal stress under current and future climate
Stark, G., Ma, L., Zeng, Z., Du, W., & Levy, O. (2023) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16802 · Cited by 49
“To predict how future warming may affect lizards between 2080 and 2100, we estimated climatic shifts in temperature by assuming the ssp585 emission scenario (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Background
Overestimated nitrogen loss from denitrification for natural terrestrial ecosystems in CMIP6 Earth System Models
Feng, M., Peng, S., Wang, Y.-L., Ciais, P., Goll, D., Chang, J.-F., Fang, Y.-T., Houlton, B., Liu, G., Sun, Y., et al. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-38803-z · Cited by 35
The increasingly dominant role of climate change on length of day variations
Shahvandi, M. K., Adhikari, S., Dumberry, M., Mishra, S., & Soja, B. S. (2024) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2406930121 · Cited by 40
Plant invasion in Mediterranean Europe: current hotspots and future scenarios
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Future drought risks in the Yellow River Basin and suggestions for targeted response
Deng, H.-Y., Yin, Y.-H., Zong, X.-Z., & Yin, M.-J. (2023) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103764 · Cited by 34
Projection of Hot and Cold Extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6
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“5 °C global warming restriction target (Meinshausen et al. 2020).”
BackgroundInfluential
Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates
McKenna, C. M., Maycock, A. C., Forster, P. M. D. F., Smith, C., & Tokarska, K. B. (2020) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00957-9 · Cited by 66
Modeling 2020 regulatory changes in international shipping emissions helps explain anomalous 2023 warming
Quaglia, I., & Visioni, D. (2024) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-15-1527-2024 · Cited by 33
High radiative forcing climate scenario relevance analyzed with a ten-million-member ensemble
Sarofim, M. C., Smith, C., Malek, P., McDuffie, E. E., Hartin, C. A., Lay, C. R., & McGrath, S. M. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-52437-9 · Cited by 59
“Wefollowthelogicdiscussedin Meinshausen et al. 38 to extend SSP-RCP emissions beyond 2100.”
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Alternative climate metrics to the Global Warming Potential are more suitable for assessing aviation non-CO2 effects
Megill, L., Deck, K., & Grewe, V. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01423-6 · Cited by 44
“Thescenariosaredevelopedtotestclimatemetricsand havenotbeenevaluatedforreliabilityandaccuracy.”
Enhanced atmospheric oxidation toward carbon neutrality reduces methane’s climate forcing
Liu, M.-X., Song, Y., Matsui, H., Shang, F., Kang, L., Cai, X.-H., Zhang, H.-S., & Zhu, T. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-47436-9 · Cited by 33
“These future CH 4 concentrations have been projected in support of CMIP6 using a much simpli ﬁ ed climate-carbon-cycle model without the consideration of evolution of natural CH 4 emissions in response to climate warming 42 .”
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Carbon and climate implications of rewetting a raised bog in Ireland
Wilson, D., Mackin, F., Tuovinen, J., Moser, G. M., Farrell, C. A., & Renou‐Wilson, F. (2022) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16359 · Cited by 56
The Advancement in Spring Vegetation Phenology in the Northern Hemisphere Will Reverse After 2060 Under Future Moderate Warming Scenarios
Mo, Y.-H., Chen, S., Wu, Z.-F., Tang, J., & Fu, Y. H. (2024) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef003788 · Cited by 32
“…SSP1‐2.6 scenario represents an approximate total radiative forcing level of 2.6 W m 2 by 2100 under the SSP1 socioeconomic pathway, which broadly corresponds to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 used in the previous generation of climate change scenarios (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
MethodInfluential
Arctic amplification, and its seasonal migration, over a wide range of abrupt CO2 forcing
Liang, Y.-C., Polvani, L., & Mitevski, I. (2022) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00228-8 · Cited by 32
The gap between atmospheric nitrogen deposition experiments and reality.
Bebber, D. (2021) · Science of the Total Environment · doi:10.31223/x5x89z · Cited by 32
Mitigating climate change and ozone pollution will improve Chinese food security
Li, S., Gao, Y., Zhang, J. J., Hong, C., Zhang, S., Chen, D., Wild, O., Feng, Z., Xu, Y., Guo, X., et al. (2024) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2024.12.002 · Cited by 29
Different photovoltaic power potential variations in East and West China
Chen, X., Zhou, C.-H., Tian, Z., Mao, H., Luo, Y., Sun, D., Fan, J.-H., Jiang, L.-G., Deng, J., & Rosen, M. (2023) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121846 · Cited by 31
Sharp decline in future productivity of tropical reforestation above 29°C mean annual temperature
Nölte, A., Yousefpour, R., Cifuentes, M., & Hanewinkel, M. (2023) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adg9175 · Cited by 35
Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of Parthenium hysterophorus around the World and in South Korea
Adhikari, P., Lee, Y.-H., Poudel, A., Lee, G., Hong, S., & Park, Y.-S. (2023) · Biology · doi:10.3390/biology12010084 · Cited by 31
“6 K, respectively, relative to 1750 [34].”
Fewer Basins Will Follow Their Budyko Curves Under Global Warming and Fossil‐Fueled Development
Jaramillo, F., Piemontese, L., Berghuijs, W. R., Wang‐Erlandsson, L., Greve, P., & Wang, Z. (2022) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2021wr031825 · Cited by 40
“This is not surprising as this scenario's inherent land cover changes will modify vegetation and the Earth's surface more than the SSP126 (Meinshausen et al., 2020), with a considerable increase in cropland and a decrease in pastures and forests, which may affect surface evaporation rates (Riahi et…”
Drought risks are projected to increase in the future in central and southern regions of the Middle East
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“To address these limitations, ensemble learning approaches have gained attention, especially when combined with high-resolution datasets like CMIP6, to improve prediction accuracy and reduce uncertainty 56 – 59 .”
The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty
Baur, S., Nauels, A., Nicholls, Z., Sanderson, B. M., & Schleussner, C. (2023) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-14-367-2023 · Cited by 52
“5.3 (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
InfluentialSelf-citation
Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios
Melnikova, I., Boucher, O., Cadule, P., Tanaka, K., Gasser, T., Hajima, T., Quilcaille, Y., Shiogama, H., Séférian, R., Tachiiri, K., et al. (2022) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-13-779-2022 · Cited by 49
“4-OS is a concentration-driven scenario based on the implementation of SSP5 in the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment model (IAM) (Kriegler et al., 2017; Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
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Managing for climate and production goals on crop-lands
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The impact of natural climate variability on the global distribution of Aedes aegypti: a mathematical modelling study
Kaye, A. R., Obolski, U., Sun, L.-T., Hart, W., Hurrell, J., Tildesley, M., & Thompson, R. N. (2024) · Lancet Planetary Health · doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00238-9 · Cited by 29
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Influential
Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory
He, Y. L., Piao, S. L., Ciais, P., Xu, H., & Gasser, T. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-54846-2 · Cited by 30
Increased crossing of thermal stress thresholds of vegetation under global warming
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“Thus, in combination with projections from Earth System Models (ESMs, Meinshausen et al., 2020; O'Neill et al., 2016), we estimated locations where future mean temperatures would become routinely higher (i.e., “the norm”) than such thresholds (see Section 2).”

Authors: Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., & Wang, R. H. J.
Affiliations: The University of Melbourne (AU)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
ETH Zurich (CH)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
Empa (CH)
Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
Utrecht University (NL)
Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
Corresponding author: Meinshausen, Malte
Gidden, Matthew J.
Vogel, Elisabeth
Beyerle, Urs
Gessner, Claudia
Nauels, Alexander
Canadell, Josep G.
Krummel, Paul B.
Luderer, Gunnar
Montzka, Stephen A.
Rayner, Peter J.
Reimann, Stefan
Smith, Steven J.
Velders, Guus J. M.
Vollmer, Martin K.
Wang, Ray H. J.
ORCID: Meinshausen, Malte
Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.
Lewis, Jared
Gidden, Matthew J.
Vogel, Elisabeth
Freund, Mandy
Beyerle, Urs
Gessner, Claudia
Nauels, Alexander
Bauer, Nico
Canadell, Josep G.
Daniel, John S.
John, Andrew
Krummel, Paul B.
Luderer, Gunnar
Montzka, Stephen A.
Rayner, Peter J.
Reimann, Stefan
Smith, Steven J.
van den Berg, Marten
Velders, Guus J. M.
Vollmer, Martin K.
Wang, Ray H. J.
Venue: Geoscientific Model Development
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Published: 2020-08-13
Volume: 13
Issue: 8
Pages: 3571-3605
ISSN: 1991-959X (ISSN-L)
1991-9603
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020
OpenAlex: W3048501727
Cited by: 1,815
References: 78
Citations by year: 2026: 288 · 2025: 412 · 2024: 396 · 2023: 336 · 2022: 241 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 33
FWCI: 66.93
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Geoscientific model development (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
DORA Empa (Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion)
Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
RENATE (cc-by)
ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
Funders: Australian Research Council (FT130100809)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, greenhouse gas concentrations, long-lived greenhouse gases, radiative forcing, fossil fuel emissions, land use change emissions, net-negative emissions, non-CO2 emissions, surface air temperature, RCP scenarios

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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

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