The Logic of Political Survival

“5 Bennett 1997; Bueno de Mesquita et al. 1999; Gaubatz 1996; Gibler 2008; Lai and Reiter 2000; Leeds 2003; Mattes 2012a; Reed 1997; Reiter and Stam 2002; Schultz 2001; Schultz and Weingast 2003. McGillivray and Smith (2008) attempt to bring the co-operative nature of democratic leaders and their ability to issue credi…”

“While governing ideological positions may not be widely popular, they may speak to other members within the selectorate who favor policies that ensure economic, ethnic, or religious advantage (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003).”

“Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003) argue here that democracies outperform nondemocratic regimes in the provision of public goods, as this is a more cost-ef fi cient way to satisfy the electorate in this context.”

“(2007)); and ii) misaligned electoral institutions that deliver policies to favor only special interest groups instead of the general public (Strand (2013); Armijo, Biersteker, and Lowenthal (1994), Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2004); Keefer (2011)); or allows clientelism (Kirtschelt and Wilkinson (2007)). Commander (201…”

“Democracies are thought to be more constrained by public opinion because leaders can suffer at the ballot box if they pursue policies that are domestically unpopular (eg, Bueno de Mesquita et. al 2003 ).”

“The size of GDP/capita is accounted for because poorer countries will tend to use repression as an alternative to the provision of public goods (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003).12 The model includes a binary variable to account for the incidence of Civil conflict in a countryyear (Gleditsch et al.,…”

“…suggests that rulers use ruling parties, legislatures, and elections to distribute political and monetary rewards, such as policy concessions, state salaries, and privileged access to government contracts (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Gandhi and Przeworski 2006; Magaloni 2006; Gandhi 2008).”

“…approval rates (Eichenberg et al., 2006; Feaver & Gelpi, 2004; Gelpi et al., 2005/06), public perceptions of a war’s progress and likelihood of success (Boettcher & Cobb, 2006; Voeten & Brewer, 2006) and the tenure of elected leaders (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003; Gartner et al., 2003).”

“3 The logic is similar to the selectorate model (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003).”

“According to Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003) a winning coalition and selectorate focus also offers a more general regime classification than the democracy–autocracy continuum.”

“…we use recent advances in political economics with its emphasis on dynamic models of strategic interaction (e.g., Acemoglu and Robinson, 2005, 2006, Acemoglu, 2003, 2006, Laguno¤, 2006, Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003, Konrad and Skaperdas, 2005, Restrepo, 2002, and Gallego and Pitchik, 2004).”

“…develop institutional mechanisms to co-opt the opposition either through the distribution of economic transfers and rents (Wintrobe, 1998; Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003) or through institutions that produce credible inter-temporal power-sharing deals with potential elite opponents (Lazarev,…”

“Strategic interests and intervention in communal conflict The most basic interest of the central government is to stay in power (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2005; Gates et al., 2006). Its strategies in relation to local conflicts should be seen in this light. In the context of Africa after the Cold War, states tend to b…”

“In the end, the goal of political survival, as it has been demonstrated (De Mesquita, 2005), can pass through authoritarian rule but can also manipulate and misuse normatively democratic instruments.”

“can remove democratic leaders relatively easily if they are dissatisfied with their performance (Mesquita et al. 2004).”

“…abstractly about the various components of leaders’ selectorates and how they might be accountable to different portions of those groups (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003), students often forget this when examining real political situations and dramatically oversimplify very complex political…”

“Following the direction charted by Davenport and Armstrong (2004), Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2005), Gates et al.”

“For example, they may have regular and somewhat competitive elections (Levitsky and Way 2009), provide public services (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003) and allow some degree of public liberties (Linz and Stepan 1996).”

“It has been broadly studied and found that autocrats show diversity in terms of their political structures and economic performances (for example, see Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Wright 2008a), and the quality of property rights institutions shows a similar pattern.”

“…how to survive if forced out of power.2 Unlike democratic leaders, dictators can use imprisonment, torture, and executions of political opponents as means of staying in power; this has been recognized long ago (e.g., Friedrich and Brzezinski, 1956; Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003; Svolik, 2012).”

“Bueno de Mesquita et al., 1999; Jackson and Morelli, 2007). Theymay also help reveal information about the government’s political incentives in a crisis by improving its ability to send credible signals (e.g. Fearon, 1994; Schultz, 1998; Levy and Razin, 2004). Normative explanations contend that democracies are less c…”

“Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003) show that dictators with small winning coalitions and large selectorates have incentives to under-provide growth-enhancing public goods, preferring to distribute private goods to stay in office.”

“The results are consistent, and I report the results using the Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003) data.”

“Rather than seeking interethnic accommodation, we propose that corrupt governments in resource-rich countries are more likely to use their wealth to buy the loyalty of their supporters (cf. Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003) and reinforce grievances along ethnic lines.”

“Morrow’s (1994) application of Crawford and Sobel (1982).”

“Democratizing has many effects on policies that impact the incumbent’s decision to open up the political system such as tax rates, redistribution, and public goods provision (among many others, Acemoglu and Robinson (2000) and Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003)).”

“101 Alesina and Perotti 1994; Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Przeworski et al. 2000.”

“Knowing this, the leader can afford to offer fewer private ben-efits to these elites (Bueno de Mesquita et al. , 2003, p. 66).”

“This, in turn, helps them maintain cooperation from their support base (Wintrobe 1998; Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003).”

“Moreover, in these societies, this risk-averse population has the ability to select and remove their leadership; hence, their risk-aversion tends to have an influence in the decision-making process (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003).”

“In the 25 Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2005.”

“Thus, autocratic leaders use repression to deter would-be challengers (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2005: 338-340).”

“See, in particular, Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; and Goemans 2000.”

“The selectorate theory (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 1999, 2003) began as a way to explain how states with different regime types behaved in war.”

“…feature an in-group whose support the autocrat must retain and an out-group that is excluded from political decision British Journal of Political Science 5 making and is thus subject to more repression (Acemoglu, Robinson and Verdier 2004; Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Padro i Miquel 2007).”

“Although development may also enhance the power resources of leaders, leaders in poor countries are already in control of considerable resources, especially in autocratic states (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003), where they are generally freer to engage in predation.”

“Dictators use parties and legislatures to distribute rents and privileges, which enables them to co-opt citizens and potential regime opponents (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003).”

“…that democracies that are ‘young’ in various senses are likely to promote the targeted distribution of private goods and not the provision of public goods is increasingly mainstream in political science and institutional theory (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Keefer 2007; North et al. 2009).”

“Human capital is another vital source of economic growth (e.g. Mankiw et al., 1992), and provision of universal education is a typical broad-interest policy (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003).”

“Finally, I also check that my results hold with using Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2004)’s”

“Although autocratic leaders also need to forge compromises and reconcile diverging interests with state and societal actors (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Kinne 2005; Purcell 1973), they have greater leeway to enact fundamental policy shifts and to choose which clients or constituencies to serve…”

“The conventional wisdom within the democratic peace literature is that democracies are peaceful only in their relationships with other democracies (e.g. Bueno de Mesquita et al., 1999, 2003; Chan, 1997; Dixon, 1994; Maoz and Russett, 1993; Oneal and Russett, 1997), not in general.”

“Similarly, Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003) contend that democracies are more likely to provide public goods than nondemocracies and since trade is a public good, democratic states are likely to engage in more trade.”

“These elites, whom De Mesquita et al. (2005) call the ”selectorate”, are generally considered as the most serious threat to the dictators’ power.”

“No political regime, even if authoritarian, can be instated and maintained without a coalition (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003; Geddes, 1999). Inequality between social classes widens the gap between the preferences over economic policies of members of the masses and the elites (Acemoğlu & Robinson, 2006; Boix, 2003,…”