The Logic of Political Survival

“…our starting point the theory of origins of dictatorship and democracy (acemoglu and Robinson 2006) and the theory of political survival (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003). these theories provide an explanation on the origins of different institutional systems, how these systems legitimize…”

“Selectorate theory was proposed by De Mesquita Bruce et al. (2003).”

“In this context, arguments about democratic norms (Maoz and Russett 1993; Dixon 1994), improved democratic signaling ability (Fearon 1994; Schultz 1998, 1999, 2001), the peculiar incentives imposed on leaders by democratic institutions (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 1999, 2003), and democratic learning (Cederman 2001a) all…”

“As is common in political economy models of foreign policy, I assume that the desire to remain in power motivates leaders and constituents hold leaders accountable to their provision of both security and the distribution of public and private goods (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003).”

“It expects them to channel private goods to members of their support base in the ‘selectorate’, but to neglect the ‘unenfranchised’ majority (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003).1 Other recent studies have found authoritarian regimes sometimes do extend provision beyond their immediate support base—but…”

“Regardless of the specific issue, I assume that, from the target’s perspective, initial policies reflect the preferences of leaders who wish to remain in power (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2004).”

“Studies such as those of Londregan et al. (1995), Londregan and Poole (1996), Carmignani (2002), Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003), Marinov (2005), Bueno de Mesquita and Smith (2010), and Malone (2011) report a positive relationship between economic growth and political survival more generally.”

“…are lower than the costs of redistribution, the rulers are more likely to concentrate power by eliminating their rivals, keep the size of the ruling coalition small to ensure members get a higher share of the spoils and increase repression to ensure their survival (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003).”

“In contrast, political leaders with minimal institutionalized ties to the population, such as personalist dictatorships, tend not to survive as long and do a much poorer job of providing public goods, among them, basic food security (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003).”

“Rather, several related syntheses have been evolving, each based in what Russett and Starr (2000) call the “strategic perspective” (for instance, the survival/selectorate model of Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003).”

“65 Dahl 1971 66 Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003.”

“We start with the assumption that illiberal regimes seek to maximize their chances of survival (Bueno De Mesquita et al. 2003).”

“…is regular rotation of power, a strategy of cooptation prevails over the strategy of repressions, the “selectorate” and the “winning coalition” (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003) are rather broad, property rights are guaranteed, contracts are enforced, but – most importantly – there are relatively…”

“On the other hand, democrats rise and fall on the strength of their economic performance—and their associated capacity to provide public goods (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Wintrobe 1990).”

“…with chaotic governance, economic mismanagement, and rampant corruption (Nathan 2003; Chang and Golden 2010); and 3) the theory that the provision of public goods in authoritarian regimes is dependent on the autocrat needing to satisfy a broad “winning coalition” (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003).”

“25 Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2004.”

“Democratic governments that wish to survive politically must deliver policies that benefit a significant number of voters (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003).”

“…politics have generally agreed that, compared to democratic regimes, autocracies provide more private goods at the expense of public goods (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Lake and Baum 2001; Rudra and Haggard 2005; Lustig 2007; Przeworski et al. 2000; Kaufman and Segura-Ubiergo 2001; Rudra and…”

“…the democratic peace research program is that democracies possess characteristics that encourage conflict management—institutional constraints, electoral accountability, norms, or an advantage when signaling resolve (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Maoz and Russett 1993; Dixon 1994; Schultz 1999).”

“Instead, previous research argues non-democratic governments provide social goods for political survival and economic competition (Ansell, 2008; Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003; Kosack, 2009; Oates, 1985; Tiebout, 1956; Wilson, 2008; Xiao & Tsang, 1999).”

“Moreover, distribution of resources as private goods to key supporters gives a leader greater control over state policies and decreases the risk that supporters of the incumbent leader will defect to the opposition (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003).”

“…where decision makers have very narrow constituencies, they prefer goods and services that can be targeted to smaller groups (e.g., Olson 2000; Cox and McCubbins 2001; Lake and Baum 2001; Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2004; Franzese, Jusko and Nooruddin 2007; Stasavage 2005; Hicken and Simmons 2008).”

“The literature on leader tenure is probably the least arbitrary in the choice of events to be explained, but it misses civil wars that do not see leadership change or failed coups d’état (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Goemans 2008).”

“Leaders desire the appearance of efficacy to maintain their office, most likely achieved in a democratic state via the provision of public goods (e.g., Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2004).”

“This is not a general theory of leadership survival (see Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003)); a number of factors that may be relevant have been omitted.”

“…party leader survival A huge body of literature argues that leadership selection mechanisms and devices to hold leaders accountable matter by making incumbents more or less vulnerable to replacement (e.g. Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2002, 2003; Konrad and Skaperdas, 2007; Samuels and Shugart, 2010).”

“See Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003), Gandhi (2008), Gandhi and Przeworski (2007) and Geddes (1999). 5. Stewart (2008: 13). I use Stewart’s (2008: 3) conceptualization of group level inequalities as entailing ‘‘inequalities in economic, social or political dimensions or cultural status between defined groups’’. Politic…”

“11 Such formulations are examined by Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003) and Acemoglu and Robinson (2006).”

“The material benefits that authoritarian regimes offer to the ‘winning coalition’ (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003), which keeps them in power, have been studied, among others, as ‘patronage’ by Magaloni for the case of Mexico; as ‘provision pacts’ by Slater (2010) in his study on Southeast Asia; and by Holmes (1993) wh…”

“Others link to broader research debates, such as the democratic peace and its impact on military expenditures (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003), the extent to which international trade is inhibited by military concerns (Morrow, 1997), or institutional learning in an organization (Lebovic, 1995).”

“Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2003) have recently developed a rigorous formal framework for evaluating the consequences of variations in the size of the group to which a chief executive is ultimately accountable.”

“Due to the disproportionate economic cost of sanctions on groups outside ‘the winning coalition’ of the political leadership (for example, Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003; Cortright and Lopez, 1995; Gibbons, 1999; Weiss, 1999; Wintrobe, 1990, 1998), independent media organizations (newspapers and…”

“While the IPI project proves useful in the study of domestic conflict (Moore & Davis, 1998; Carey, 2006), the ordinal scales impose on the data a constant, interval, linear relationship between the events and their assigned values. Rather than impose such a strong assumption, Shellman (2004a) surveys a set of scholars…”

“Indeed, many leadership studies are concerned with the effects of institutions on leader survival in office rather than with the effects of leaders as such (e.g., Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003).”

“As others have shown, leaders prioritize maintaining office and need domestic political support to do so (Geddes 1996; Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003).”

“Bates 2008; Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Chiozza and Goemans 2011; Reno 1998; Roessler 2011.”

“The few more analytical contributions mostly examine different institutional mechanisms of leadership selection, survival and ejection (Weller 1983 , 1994 ; Heclo 1992 ; Courtney 1995 ; LeDuc 2001 ; Bueno de Mesquita et al 2003 ; Quinn 2004 , 2005 ) or the policy effects of leadership succession (Bunce 1981 ; Roeder 1…”

“Seminal studies in this vein include Bienen and van de Walle (1991), Bueno de Mesquita et al. (1999, 2003) and Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson (1995).”

“This result challenges an earlier view that the public would ‘‘rally around the fiscal flag’’ and bear the cost of taxation to help insure victory (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003).5 Instead, war taxes appear to decrease significantly the public’s willingness to back a war.”

“It is also widely assumed that political leaders want to maintain their office and make policy in a way that enhances or at least does not hurt their political survival (e.g., Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003).”

“(McGuire and Olson, 1996; Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003; Lizzeri and Persico, 2004; Deacon, 2009). According to Olson (1993) and McGuire and Olson (1996), a crucial factor that drives this”

“In return, the regime expects support from the people who receive these benefits (Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003; King, 2007).”

“In other words, in the terminology of ( Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003 ), the size of both Kagame and Museveni’s ‘winning coalition’ is small in comparison to the size of their ‘selectorates,’ which in both cases is synonymous with the electorate.”

“Political economy theory posits that autocratic leaders design social policies and mandate public goods provision for regime legitimacy and support (Wintrobe, 1998; Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003).”

“…effects that interstate war can have on leader survival (Bueno De Mesquita, Siverson, and Woller 1992; Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson 1995; Goemans 2000a, 2000b; Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Chiozza and Goemans 2003, 2004; Boehmke, Morey, and Shannon 2006; Goemans, Gleditsch, and Chiozza 2009).”