Measuring psychological uncertainty: Verbal versus numeric methods.
Abstract
The authors argue that alternatives to the traditional numeric methods of measuring people's uncertainty may prove to hold important advantages under some conditions. In 3 experiments, the authors compared verbal measures involving responses such as very likely, and numeric measures involving responses such as 80% chance. The verbal measures were found to show more sensitivity to various manipulations affecting psychological uncertainty (Experiment 1), to be better predictors of individual preferences among options with unknown outcomes (Experiment 2), and to be better predictors of behavioral intentions (Experiment 3). Results suggest that numeric measures tend to elicit deliberate and rule-based reasoning from respondents, whereas verbal measures allow for more associative and intuitive thinking. Given that there may be many types of situations in which human decisions and behaviors are not based on deliberate and rule-based thinking, numeric measures may misrepresent how individuals think about uncertainty in those situations.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Social science research shows that, in human communication, expressing (un)certainty through natural language is often preferred and perceived as more intuitive than numerical expressions.
“Second, social science research shows that, in human communication, expressing (un)certainty through natural language is often preferred and perceived as more intuitive than numerical expressions [34, 60, 106, 112, 121].”
From "I'm Not Sure, But...": Examining the Impact of Large Language Models' Uncertainty Expression on User Reliance and Trust (2024) · cites this paper as [112]
Cites
Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.51.6.1173 · Cited by 91,542 · see citing works
Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk
Kahneman, D. J., & Tversky, A. (1988) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511609220.014 · Cited by 32,700 · see citing works
James, W. (1891) · Henry Holt and Company eBooks · doi:10.1037/11059-000 · Cited by 25,799 · see citing works
Bruner, J. (1986) · doi:10.4159/9780674029019 · Cited by 8,657 · see citing works
Statistical Methods for Psychology.
Gudgeon, A. C., & Howell, D. C. (1994) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D (The Statistician) · doi:10.2307/2348956 · Cited by 8,277 · see citing works
Actual Minds, Possible Worlds.
Mergler, N. L., Schleifer, R., & Bruner, J. S. (1986) · MLN · doi:10.2307/2905728 · Cited by 6,626 · see citing works
Handbook of Personality : Theory and Research
Pervin, L. A. (1992) · Cited by 4,543 · see citing works
(1967) · Cited by 3,831 · see citing works
The empirical case for two systems of reasoning.
Sloman, S. A. (1996) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.119.1.3 · Cited by 3,813 · see citing works
Health Belief Model and Personal Health Behavior
Becker, M. H. (1976) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 3,065 · see citing works
(1987) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 2,399 · see citing works
The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6 · Cited by 1,649 · see citing works
Thinking too much: Introspection can reduce the quality of preferences and decisions.
Wilson, T. D., & Schooler, J. W. (1991) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.60.2.181 · Cited by 1,397 · see citing works
A decision-making theory of visual detection.
Tanner, W. P., & Swets, J. A. (1954) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/h0058700 · Cited by 1,316 · see citing works
Erdem, T., & Keane, M. P. (1996) · Marketing Science · doi:10.1287/mksc.15.1.1 · Cited by 1,230 · see citing works
Fields, M. R. (1960) · American Journal of Public Health and the Nations Health · doi:10.2105/ajph.50.8.1233-b · Cited by 831 · see citing works
The collected works of L. S. Vygotsky, Vol. 1: Problems of general psychology.
Vygotsky, L. S., Rieber, R. W., & Carton, A. S. (1987) · Cited by 713 · see citing works
From Tools to Theories: A Heuristic of Discovery in Cognitive Psychology.
Gigerenzer, G. (1991) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.98.2.254 · Cited by 619 · see citing works
Cognitive-Experiential Self-Theory
Epstein, S. J. (1998) · The Plenum series in social/clinical psychology · doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-8580-4_9 · Cited by 580 · see citing works
“How Probable is Probable? A Numerical Translation of Verbal Probability Expressions.”
Beyth‐Marom, R. (1982) · Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1002/for.3980010305 · Cited by 527 · see citing works
Measuring the Vague Meanings of Probability Terms
Wallsten, T., Budescu, D., Rapoport, A., Zwick, R., & Forsyth, B. H. (1986) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/0096-3445.115.4.348 · Cited by 504 · see citing works
Irrational reactions to negative outcomes: Evidence for two conceptual systems.
Epstein, S. J., Lipson, A., Holstein, C. M., & Huh, E. (1992) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.62.2.328 · Cited by 411 · see citing works
Wilson, T. D., Dunn, D. S., Kraft, D., & Lisle, D. J. (1989) · Advances in experimental social psychology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2601(08)60311-1 · Cited by 361 · see citing works
Lehman, D. R., Lempert, R. O., & Nisbett, R. E. (1988) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/0003-066x.43.6.431 · Cited by 341 · see citing works
Verbal probabilities: Ambiguous, context-dependent, or both?
Brun, W., & Teigen, K. H. (1988) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/0749-5978(88)90036-2 · Cited by 334 · see citing works
Kirkpatrick, L. A., & Epstein, S. J. (1992) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.63.4.534 · Cited by 334 · see citing works
Social cognition: Impact on social psychology.
Devine, P. G., Hamilton, D. L., & Ostrom, T. M. (1994) · Academic Press eBooks · Cited by 304 · see citing works
Consistency in interpretation of probabilistic phrases
Budescu, D. V., & Wallsten, T. S. (1985) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/0749-5978(85)90007-x · Cited by 300 · see citing works
Decisions based on numerically and verbally expressed uncertainties.
Budescu, D. V., Weinberg, S., & Wallsten, T. S. (1988) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Human Perception & Performance · doi:10.1037/0096-1523.14.2.281 · Cited by 252 · see citing works
Comparing the calibration and coherence of numerical and verbal probability judgments
Wallsten, T., Budescu, D., & Zwick, R. (1993) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.39.2.176 · Cited by 252 · see citing works
Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases, and the preference paradox
Erev, I., & Cohen, B. L. (1990) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/0749-5978(90)90002-q · Cited by 250 · see citing works
Weber, E. U., & Hilton, D. (1990) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Human Perception & Performance · doi:10.1037/0096-1523.16.4.781 · Cited by 225 · see citing works
Counterfactual Thinking and Social Perception: Thinking about What Might Have Been
Miller, D. T., Turnbull, W. W., & McFarland, C. (1990) · Advances in experimental social psychology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2601(08)60322-6 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
Base rate effects on the interpretations of probability and frequency expressions
Wallsten, T. S., Fillenbaum, S., & Cox, J. A. (1986) · Journal of Memory and Language · doi:10.1016/0749-596x(86)90012-4 · Cited by 216 · see citing works
Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence
Budescu, D. V., & Wallsten, T. S. (1995) · The Psychology of learning and motivation/The psychology of learning and motivation · doi:10.1016/s0079-7421(08)60313-8 · Cited by 203 · see citing works
Recertification: Will We Retreat?
Bryant, G. D., & Gr, N. (1980) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198002143020718 · Cited by 184 · see citing works
New technologies for the direct and indirect assessment of attitudes.
Dovidio, J. F., & Fázio, R. H. (1992) · Cited by 184 · see citing works
Effects of analyzing reasons on attitude-behavior consistency.
Wilson, T. D., Dunn, D. S., Bybee, J. A., Hyman, D. B., & Rotondo, J. A. (1984) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.47.1.5 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Verbal Vs. Numerical Processing of Subjective Probabilities
Zimmer, A. C. (1983) · Advances in Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0166-4115(08)62198-6 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Verbal uncertainty expressions: A critical review of two decades of research
Clark, D. A. (1990) · Current Psychology · doi:10.1007/bf02686861 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Teigen, K. H. (1988) · Acta Psychologica · doi:10.1016/0001-6918(88)90043-1 · Cited by 100 · see citing works
A model for the interpretation of verbal predictions
Zimmer, A. (1984) · International Journal of Man-Machine Studies · doi:10.1016/s0020-7373(84)80009-7 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
When a coincidence is suspicious: The role of mental simulation.
Miller, D. T., Turnbull, W. W., & McFarland, C. (1989) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.57.4.581 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Communicating probabilistic information to cancer patients: Is there ‘noise’ on the line?
Sutherland, H. J., Lockwood, G. A., Tritchler, D., Sem, F. W. C., Brooks, L., & Till, J. E. (1991) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/0277-9536(91)90152-3 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
In search of reasonable doubt: A systematic examination of selected quantification approaches.
Dane, F. C. (1985) · Law and Human Behavior · doi:10.1007/bf01067048 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Timed magnitude comparisons of numerical and nonnumerical expressions of uncertainty
Jaffe-Katz, A., Budescu, D. V., & Wallsten, T. S. (1989) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/bf03198463 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Effects of probability mode on preference reversal.
Gonzalez-Vallejo, C. C., & Wallsten, T. S. (1992) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1037//0278-7393.18.4.855 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Measuring Vague Uncertainties and Understanding Their Use in Decision Making
Wallsten, T. S. (1990) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-015-7873-8_15 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Do Decision Quality and Preference Order Depend on Whether Probabilities Are Verbal or Numerical?
Gonzalez-Vallejo, C. C., Erev, I., & Wallsten, T. S. (1994) · The American Journal of Psychology · doi:10.2307/1423035 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
A personal perspective on social cognition.
Abelson, R. P. (1994) · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?
Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (2000) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x00003435 · Cited by 4,255 · see citing works
The C-OAR-SE procedure for scale development in marketing
Rossiter, J. R. (2002) · International Journal of Research in Marketing · doi:10.1016/s0167-8116(02)00097-6 · Cited by 2,478 · see citing works
Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions
Garthwaite, P. H., Kadane, J. B., & O’Hagan, A. (2005) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1198/016214505000000105 · Cited by 800 · see citing works
Lipkus, I. M. (2007) · Medical Decision Making · doi:10.1177/0272989x07307271 · Cited by 774 · see citing works
Design Features of Graphs in Health Risk Communication: A Systematic Review
Ancker, J. S., Senathirajah, Y., Kukafka, R., & Starren, J. B. (2006) · Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association · doi:10.1197/jamia.m2115 · Cited by 550 · see citing works
Deep Learning for ECG Analysis: Benchmarks and Insights from PTB-XL
Strodthoff, N., Wagner, P., Schaeffter, T., & Samek, W. (2020) · IEEE Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics · doi:10.1109/jbhi.2020.3022989 · Cited by 540 · see citing works
Numeracy, Ratio Bias, and Denominator Neglect in Judgments of Risk and Probability
Reyna, V. F., & Brainerd, C. J. (2008) · Learning and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.lindif.2007.03.011 · Cited by 481 · see citing works
Risk perceptions: Assessment and relationship to influenza vaccination.
Weinstein, N. D., Kwitel, A., McCaul, K. D., Magnan, R. E., Gerrard, M., & Gibbons, F. X. (2007) · Health Psychology · doi:10.1037/0278-6133.26.2.146 · Cited by 469 · see citing works
Brewer, N., & Wells, G. L. (2006) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Applied · doi:10.1037/1076-898x.12.1.11 · Cited by 363 · see citing works
Self-citationAccuracy of smokers' risk perceptions
Weinstein, N. D. (1998) · Annals of Behavioral Medicine · doi:10.1007/bf02884459 · Cited by 319 · see citing works
What Does It Mean to Understand a Risk? Evaluating Risk Comprehension
Weinstein, N. D. (1999) · JNCI Monographs · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.jncimonographs.a024192 · Cited by 315 · see citing works
The influence of outcome desirability on optimism.
Križan, Z., & Windschitl, P. D. (2007) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.133.1.95 · Cited by 287 · see citing works
Self-citationRothman, A. J., & Kiviniemi, M. T. (1999) · JNCI Monographs · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.jncimonographs.a024207 · Cited by 255 · see citing works
Verbal and Numerical Expressions of Probability: “It's a Fifty–Fifty Chance”
de Bruin, W. B., Fischhoff, B., Millstein, S. G., & Halpern‐Felsher, B. L. (2000) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1006/obhd.1999.2868 · Cited by 246 · see citing works
Teigen, K. H., & Brun, W. (1999) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1006/obhd.1999.2857 · Cited by 233 · see citing works
Risen, J. L. (2016) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/rev0000017 · Cited by 221 · see citing works
Windschitl, P. D., Kruger, J., & Simms, E. N. (2003) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.85.3.389 · Cited by 204 · see citing works
Self-citationPark, E., & Ohm, J. Y. (2013) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.037 · Cited by 191 · see citing works
Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?
Joëts, M., Mignon, V., & Razafindrabe, T. (2017) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.09.017 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
Bracing for the Worst: Severity, Testing, and Feedback Timing as Moderators of the Optimistic Bias
Taylor, K. M., & Shepperd, J. A. (1998) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167298249001 · Cited by 186 · see citing works
Dillard, A. J., Ferrer, R. A., Ubel, P. A., & Fagerlin, A. (2011) · Health Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0024787 · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Revisiting Risk Sensitivity in the Fear of Crime
Jackson, J. (2011) · Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency · doi:10.1177/0022427810395146 · Cited by 180 · see citing works
Cancer Risk Elicitation and Communication: Lessons from the Psychology of Risk Perception
Klein, W. M. P., & Stefanek, M. E. (2007) · CA A Cancer Journal for Clinicians · doi:10.3322/canjclin.57.3.147 · Cited by 177 · see citing works
Knapp, P. (2004) · BMJ Quality & Safety · doi:10.1136/qhc.13.3.176 · Cited by 171 · see citing works
Refinement of the concept of uncertainty
Penrod, J. (2001) · Journal of Advanced Nursing · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2648.2001.01750.x · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Some insights on conceptualizing and measuring service quality
García, J. A. M., & Martínez, L. (2009) · Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services · doi:10.1016/j.jretconser.2009.09.002 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
Kim, S. S. Y., Liao, Q. V., Vorvoreanu, M., Ballard, S., & Vaughan, J. W. (2024) · The 2024 ACM Conference on Fairness Accountability and Transparency · doi:10.1145/3630106.3658941 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
Why people are reluctant to tempt fate.
Risen, J. L., & Gilovich, T. (2008) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.95.2.293 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Judging the accuracy of a likelihood judgment: the case of smoking risk
Windschitl, P. D. (2002) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.401 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Self-citationHow return and risk experiences shape investor beliefs and preferences
Hoffmann, A. O. I., & Post, T. (2015) · Accounting and Finance · doi:10.1111/acfi.12169 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Patients?? Understanding of Risk Associated with Medication Use
Berry, D. C., Raynor, D. K., Knapp, P., & Bersellini, E. (2003) · Drug Safety · doi:10.2165/00002018-200326010-00001 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Perceptions of health risks of cigarette smoking: A new measure reveals widespread misunderstanding
Krosnick, J. A., Malhotra, N. A., Mo, C. H., Bruera, E. F., Chang, L., Josh Pasek, B., & Thomas, R. K. (2017) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0182063 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Jaeger, S. R., & Cardello, A. V. (2022) · Food Quality and Preference · doi:10.1016/j.foodqual.2022.104676 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
Accuracy of smokers' risk perceptions
Weinstein, N. D. (1999) · Nicotine & Tobacco Research · doi:10.1080/14622299050011721 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Measuring risk perceptions of skin cancer: Reliability and validity of different operationalizations
Janssen, E., van Osch, L., de Vries, H., & Lechner, L. (2010) · British Journal of Health Psychology · doi:10.1348/135910710x514120 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Games Ready to Use: A Serious Game for Teaching Natural Risk Management
Taillandier, F., & Adam, C. (2018) · Simulation & Gaming · doi:10.1177/1046878118770217 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
The alternative-outcomes effect.
Windschitl, P. D., & Wells, G. L. (1998) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.75.6.1411 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Self-citationMitte, K. (2007) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.paid.2006.11.028 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
McBride, M. F., & Burgman, M. A. (2011) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-1034-8_2 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Another look at why people are reluctant to exchange lottery tickets.
Risen, J. L., & Gilovich, T. D. (2007) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.93.1.12 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Communicating risk of medication side effects: An empirical evaluation of EU recommended terminology
Berry, D. C., Raynor, D. K., & Knapp, P. (2003) · Psychology Health & Medicine · doi:10.1080/1354850031000135704 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Do investors put their money where their mouth is? Stock market expectations and investing behavior
Merkle, C., & Weber, M. (2014) · Journal of Banking & Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.03.042 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Measuring Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions
Kaufman, A. R., Twesten, J., Suls, J. M., McCaul, K. D., Ostroff, J. S., Ferrer, R. A., Brewer, N. T., Cameron, L. D., Halpern‐Felsher, B. L., Hay, J. L., et al. (2019) · Nicotine & Tobacco Research · doi:10.1093/ntr/ntz213 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Psychological Basis of the Harman-Vogel Paradox
Nagel, J. (2011) · PhilPapers (PhilPapers Foundation) · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Zimmer, A., Schade, C. D., & Gründl, H. (2008) · Journal of Economic Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.joep.2008.09.001 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Bilgin, B. (2012) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2012.03.008 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Public attitudes toward nanotechnology applications in Taiwan
Chen, M.-F., Lin, Y.-P., & Cheng, T.-J. (2013) · Technovation · doi:10.1016/j.technovation.2012.11.008 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Windschitl, P. D., & Weber, E. U. (2008) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1304758 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Self-citationWindschitl, P. D., & Weber, E. U. (1999) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1037//0278-7393.25.6.1514 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Self-citationMarteau, T. M., Saidi, G., Goodburn, S. F., Lawton, J., Michie, S., & Bobrow, M. (2000) · Prenatal Diagnosis · doi:10.1002/1097-0223(200009)20:9 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Persky, S., Kaphingst, K. A., Allen, V. C., & Şenay, İ. (2013) · Annals of Behavioral Medicine · doi:10.1007/s12160-013-9475-9 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Welkenhuysen, M., Evers‐Kiebooms, G., & d’Ydewalle, G. (2001) · Patient Education and Counseling · doi:10.1016/s0738-3991(00)00161-0 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Evaluation of a verbal–numerical probability scale
Witteman, C. L. M., & Renooij, S. (2003) · International Journal of Approximate Reasoning · doi:10.1016/s0888-613x(02)00151-2 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Thinking About Low-Probability Events
Koehler, J. J., & Macchi, L. (2004) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/j.0956-7976.2004.00716.x · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long‐range investment decisions
Phadnis, S. S., Caplice, C., Sheffi, Y., & Singh, M. P. (2014) · Strategic Management Journal · doi:10.1002/smj.2293 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Uses and abuses of eyewitness identification confidence
Brewer, N. (2006) · Legal and Criminological Psychology · doi:10.1348/135532505x79672 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Conceptual problems in laypersons’ understanding of individualized cancer risk: a qualitative study
Han, P. K. J., Lehman, T. C., Massett, H. A., Lee, S. J. C., Klein, W. M. P., & Freedman, A. N. (2009) · Health Expectations · doi:10.1111/j.1369-7625.2008.00524.x · Cited by 64 · see citing works
Windschitl, P. D., Martin, R., & Flugstad, A. R. (2002) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.82.5.742 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Self-citationKnapp, P., Gardner, P. H., Carrigan, N., Raynor, D. K., & Woolf, E. (2008) · British Journal of Health Psychology · doi:10.1348/135910708x375344 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Sirota, M., & Juanchich, M. (2012) · Acta Psychologica · doi:10.1016/j.actpsy.2012.09.004 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Janssen, E., van Osch, L., Lechner, L., Candel, M. J. J. M., & de Vries, H. (2011) · Psychology and Health · doi:10.1080/08870446.2011.580846 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Tenney, E. R., Meikle, N. L., Hunsaker, D., Moore, D. A., & Anderson, C. P. (2018) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/pspi0000150 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
A review of risk perception measurement in tobacco control research
Kaufman, A. R., Persoskie, A., Twesten, J., & Bromberg, J. E. (2018) · Tobacco Control · doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-054005 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Sauer, J. D., Palmer, M. A., & Brewer, N. (2019) · Psychology Public Policy and Law · doi:10.1037/law0000203 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Juanchich, M., Teigen, K., & Gourdon, A. (2013) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s193029750000601x · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Four Arguments for Denying that Lottery Beliefs Are Justified
Smith, M. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108379755.006 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Predictors of Perceived Risk for Colon Cancer in a National Probability Sample in the United States
Hay, J. L., Coups, E. J., & Ford, J. S. (2006) · Journal of Health Communication · doi:10.1080/10810730600637376 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
DESIGNING INSTRUCTIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL TEXT
Hartley, J. R. (2003) · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Optimism Following a Tornado Disaster
Suls, J. M., Rose, J. P., Windschitl, P. D., & Smith, A. R. (2013) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167213477457 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Self-citationFactors Influencing Public Risk Perception of Emerging Technologies: A Meta-Analysis
Li, C., & Li, Y. (2023) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su15053939 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Communicating Risk Information in Genetic Counseling: An Observational Study
Michie, S., Lester, K. J., Pinto, J., & Marteau, T. M. (2005) · Health Education & Behavior · doi:10.1177/1090198105278562 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Teigen, K. H. (1998) · Thinking & Reasoning · doi:10.1080/135467898394193 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Fasolo, B., & Costa, C. A. B. E. (2013) · Omega · doi:10.1016/j.omega.2013.09.006 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Betsch, C., Haase, N., Renkewitz, F., & Schmid, P. (2015) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500004654 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
de Bruin, W. B., & Carman, K. G. (2018) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.13138 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
The Dud-Alternative Effect in Likelihood Judgment.
Windschitl, P. D., & Chambers, J. R. (2004) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1037/0278-7393.30.1.198 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Self-citationThe same but different: an empirical investigation of the reducibility principle
Budescu, D. V., & Fischer, I. (2001) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.372 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Exploring uncertainty perception as a driver of design activity
Cash, P. J., & Kreye, M. E. (2017) · Design Studies · doi:10.1016/j.destud.2017.10.004 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Waters, E. A. (2008) · Journal of Risk Research · doi:10.1080/13669870701715576 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Aversion to side effects in preventive medical treatment decisions
Waters, E. A., Weinstein, N. D., Colditz, G. A., & Emmons, K. M. (2007) · British Journal of Health Psychology · doi:10.1348/135910706x115209 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Does labeling prenatal screening test results as negative or positive affect a woman’s responses?
Zikmund‐Fisher, B. J., Fagerlin, A., Keeton, K., & Ubel, P. A. (2007) · American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology · doi:10.1016/j.ajog.2007.03.076 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Jiménez‐Barreto, J., Loureiro, S. M. C., Braun, E., Sthapit, E., & Zenker, S. (2021) · International Journal of Hospitality Management · doi:10.1016/j.ijhm.2021.102872 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
The dynamics of micro-conflicts and uncertainty in successful and unsuccessful design teams
Paletz, S. B. F., Chan, J., & Schunn, C. D. (2017) · Design Studies · doi:10.1016/j.destud.2017.02.002 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Visualizing Uncertainty for Non-Expert End Users: The Challenge of the Deterministic Construal Error
Joslyn, S. L., & Savelli, S. (2021) · Frontiers in Computer Science · doi:10.3389/fcomp.2020.590232 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Jenkins, S. C., Harris, A. J. L., & Lark, R. M. (2018) · Journal of Risk Research · doi:10.1080/13669877.2018.1440415 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Misinterpreting eyewitness expressions of confidence: The featural justification effect.
Dodson, C. S., & Dobolyi, D. G. (2015) · Law and Human Behavior · doi:10.1037/lhb0000120 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Rose, J. P. (2008) · Psychology and Health · doi:10.1080/08870440802340164 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Hubbard, G., Macmillan, I., Canny, A., Forbat, L., Neal, R. D., O’Carroll, R. E., Haw, S. J., & Kyle, R. G. (2014) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-1117 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Valuing Money and Things: Why a $20 Item Can Be Worth More and Less Than $20
McGraw, A. P., Shafir, E. B., & Todorov, A. T. (2010) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.1100.1147 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Is the mind Bayesian? The case for agnosticism
Baratgin, J., & Politzer, G. (2006) · Mind & Society · doi:10.1007/s11299-006-0007-1 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Combining Probability Forecasts: 60% and 60% Is 60%, but Likely and Likely Is Very Likely
Mislavsky, R., & Gaertig, C. (2021) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2020.3902 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Improving informed consent: insights from behavioral decision research.
Holmes-Rovner, M. M., & Wills, C. E. (2002) · PubMed · doi:10.1097/01.mlr.0000023953.55783.4a · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Taber, J. M., & Klein, W. M. P. (2016) · Social and Personality Psychology Compass · doi:10.1111/spc3.12244 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
How You Estimate Calories Matters: Calorie Estimation Reversals
Woolley, K., & Liu, P. J. (2020) · Journal of Consumer Research · doi:10.1093/jcr/ucaa059 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Verbal Labels Can Triple Perceived Risk in Clinical Trials
Berry, D. C., & Hochhauser, M. (2006) · Drug Information Journal · doi:10.1177/009286150604000302 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Menold, N. (2017) · Sociological Methods & Research · doi:10.1177/0049124117729694 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
An ordinal multi-criteria decision-making procedure under imprecise linguistic assessments
García-Lapresta, J., & del Pozo, R. D. (2019) · European Journal of Operational Research · doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2019.05.015 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
A Longitudinal Study of the Effects of Uncertainty on Reproductive Behaviors
Davis, J., & Werre, D. (2008) · Human Nature · doi:10.1007/s12110-008-9052-2 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Significance of Forecast Precision: The Importance of Investors’ Expectations
Rupar, K. K. (2016) · Contemporary Accounting Research · doi:10.1111/1911-3846.12279 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Why Evaluating Uncertainty Visualization is Error Prone
Hullman, J. R. (2016) · doi:10.1145/2993901.2993919 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
- Authors
- Windschitl, P. D., & Wells, G. L.
- Affiliations
- Iowa State University (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied
- Published
- 1996-12
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 343-364
- ISSN
- 1076-898X (ISSN-L)
- 1939-2192
- OpenAlex
- W2000688897
- Cited by
- 326
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 19 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 15 · 2017: 14 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 18 · 2012: 15
- FWCI
- 4.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Experimental Psychology Applied (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Psychometric Methodologies and Testing
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Keywords
- psychological uncertainty, decision making under uncertainty, behavioral intention, intuitive thinking, deliberative reasoning, preference prediction
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
