The DOI matches its Crossref record; 55 of the 64 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 1 of the 43 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL
Open accessAbstract
SUMMARY We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to flow demand and flow supply. The speculative component of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data on oil inventories. Our estimates rule out explanations of the 2003–2008 oil price surge based on unexpectedly diminishing oil supplies and based on speculative trading. Instead, this surge was caused by unexpected increases in world oil consumption driven by the global business cycle. There is evidence, however, that speculative demand shifts played an important role during earlier oil price shock episodes including 1979, 1986 and 1990. Our analysis implies that additional regulation of oil markets would not have prevented the 2003–2008 oil price surge. We also show that, even after accounting for the role of inventories in smoothing oil consumption, our estimate of the short‐run price elasticity of oil demand is much higher than traditional estimates from dynamic models that do not account for for the endogeneity of the price of oil. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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58 No basis given · 56 Own interpretation · 49 Own result · 19 Own method · 18 Sources not found · 12 No full text of the sources · 7 Not checked yet · 1 Couldn’t confirm · accuracy not yet measured
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“There is a consensus in the literature that this shortrun price elasticity of oil supply is close to zero, if not effectively zero.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.2. Bound on the Impact Price Elasticity of Oil Supply
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [14] 14. Davis LW, Kilian L. 2011. Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions. Journal of Applied Econo- metrics 16: 1187-1214. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 4.1 (Price Specification; page unavailable) discusses a flat short-run gasoline supply curve as a modeling assumption. The passages found when searching for short-run oil supply elasticity and a literature consensus do not address either claim about oil supply. (LLM, conf=0.77)
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“Our estimates rule out explanations of the 2003-2008 oil price surge based on unexpectedly diminishing oil supplies and based on speculative trading.”
- Also stated in: § 1. INTRODUCTION · plain
“our estimates rule out speculation as a cause of the surge in the real price of oil between 2003 and mid 2008.”
- Also stated in: § 1. INTRODUCTION · plain
“all speculative trading in the spot market for crude oil combined had little effect on the real price of oil between 2003 and mid 2008”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Abstract
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“It also played a central role in 1990, following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“We also show that, even after accounting for the role of inventories in smoothing oil consumption, our estimate of the short-run price elasticity of oil demand is much higher than traditional estimates from dynamic models that do not account for for the endogeneity of the price of oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Abstract
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“There is evidence, however, that speculative demand shifts played an important role during earlier oil price shock episodes including 1979, 1986 and 1990.”
- Also stated in: § 1. INTRODUCTION · plain
“although speculative trading does not explain the recent surge in the real price of oil, we show that it played an important role in several earlier oil price shock episodes.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Abstract
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“it helps explain the sharp decline in the real price of oil in early 1986 after the collapse of OPEC.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“Our posterior median estimate of the short-run price elasticity of oil demand of À0.26 is four times higher than standard estimates in the literature and there is little probability mass on values close to zero.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“Our estimates rule out explanations of the 2003-2008 oil price surge based on unexpectedly diminishing oil supplies and based on speculative trading.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Abstract
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“there is evidence that the recovery of the real price of oil starting in 1999, following an all-time low in post-war history, was aided by coordinated supply cuts.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“In contrast, flow supply shocks played only a minor role in 1979.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“Although neither negative flow supply shocks nor positive speculative demand shocks alone can explain the oil price spike and oil inventory behavior of 1990/91, their combined effects do.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“The continued rise in the real price of oil in 1980 reflected negative flow supply shocks (caused in part by the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War) as much as continued (if slowing) global growth, amidst declining speculative demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“Business cycle factors were also responsible for the bulk of the 1979/80 oil price increase in conjunction with sharply rising speculative demand in the second half of 1979.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“most of the new Chinese oil storage facilities had yet to be filled by the end of our sample, so our analysis is not likely to be affected much.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.4. How Accurate Are the Oil Inventory Data?
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“The only difference is that some admissible models assign even more explanatory power to flow demand shocks than the benchmark model at the expense of speculative demand shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4. ESTIMATION RESULTS
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“Finally, a positive speculative demand shock is associated with an immediate jump in the real price of oil.The real price response overshoots, before declining gradually.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
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“leasing tankers is expensive and the extent to which tankers have been used for storage appears small and limited to the very end of our sample.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.4. How Accurate Are the Oil Inventory Data?
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“A positive flow demand shock causes almost no change in oil inventories on impact, followed by a temporary drawdown of oil inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
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“we do not report results for this fourth shock but merely note that it is not an important determinant of the real price of oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.1. Impact Sign Restrictions
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“A negative flow supply shock is also associated with a reduction in global real activity and a persistent drop in oil production, but much of the initial drop is reversed within the first half year.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
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“The V-shaped dip in the real price of oil in 2008/09 coincided with a similar dip in the global real activity measure and is largely driven by flow demand shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
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“After one year, the real price of oil falls below its starting value, as global real activity drops further.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
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“Inventories declined in August of 1990, but only by one third of a standard deviation of the change in inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
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“These positive flow supply shocks lowered the real price of oil starting in early 2003 and resulted in positive inventory accumulation.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
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“The historical decomposition in Figure 4 confirms that negative flow supply shocks caused a temporary drop in oil inventories in December of 1978 and January of 1979, but for the next half year positive flow supply shocks increased oil inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.5. What Caused the 1979 and 1980 Oil Price Shocks?
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“The Venezuelan oil supply crisis of late 2002 was associated with declining oil inventories, consistent with an unexpected oil supply disruption, but this period also coincided with an increase in speculative demand in anticipation of the 2003 Iraq War that dampened the decline in inventories, while reinforcing the increase in the real price of oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
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“At the same time, as early as March 2003, lower speculative demand caused the real price of oil to drop and oil inventories to fall.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
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“Figure 6 shows that, as expected, the positive flow supply shock in early 1986 drove down the real price of oil, while oil inventories rose in response.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
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“At the same time, after March of 1979, repeated speculative demand shocks caused a persistent accumulation of inventories, while driving up the real price of oil.The inventory accumulation continued into 1980.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > SPECULATION IN OIL MARKETS
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“Simultaneously, a drop in speculative demand reinforced the decline in the real price of oil, while lowering inventory holdings.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
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“Figure 2 shows that not only was there a dramatic and persistent increase in the real price of oil driven by positive flow demand shocks in 1979 and 1980 (not unlike the persistent price increase after 2003), but that increase was reinforced after May of 1979 by a sharp increase in speculative demand, exactly as described by Yergin (1992).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.5. What Caused the 1979 and 1980 Oil Price Shocks?
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- Not matchedcites Yergin (1992)
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“Figure 7 shows that this event reflected a combination of negative flow supply shocks and positive speculative demand shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
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“One way of demonstrating this point is to note that fitting the conventional reduced-form log-level specification used in some of the earlier literature to our data would yield an elasticity estimate of only À0.02, in line with the existing consensus.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.1. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Production
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“The model assigns substantial probability mass to values between À0.80 and À0.23 and very little probability mass to values close to zero.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.1. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Production
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“The second column in the upper panel of Table II shows that posterior median estimate of O, Use is only À0.26, compared with the estimate of À0.44 for the demand elasticity in oil production.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
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“For the period 1987:12-2009:8, the US and OECD petroleum inventory growth rates are reasonably close, with a correlation of about 80%.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
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“Similar results also hold for ex ante real interest rates.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
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“Our analysis also suggests that there is no evidence that 'peak oil' (or for that matter deliberate production cutbacks by oil producers) had much bearing on the recent oil price fluctuations.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
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In the paper
“The reduced-form model allows for two years' worth of lags.This approach is consistent with evidence in Hamilton and Herrera (2004) and Kilian (2009a) on the importance of allowing for long lags in the transmission of oil price shocks and in modeling business cycles in commodity markets.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hamilton and Herrera (2004) source
- Not matchedcites Kilian (2009a)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both flow demand shocks and speculative demand shocks have an expectational component.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The feature that distinguishes flow demand shocks from speculative demand shocks is that positive flow demand shocks necessarily involve an increase in the demand for consumption in the current period, whereas speculative demand shocks do not.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They have no structural interpretation and suffer from downward bias.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“upward revisions to expected future demand for crude oil (or downward revisions to expected future production of crude oil), all else equal, will increase the demand for crude oil inventories in the current period, resulting in an instantaneous shift of the contemporaneous demand curve for oil along the oil supply curve and an increase in the real price of oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“a positive flow demand shock (embodied in a shift to the right of the contemporaneous oil demand curve along the oil supply curve, conditional on all past data) raises the real price of oil and stimulates global oil production within the same month.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Indeed, it shows that there is no basis for the premise that such regulation is required to lower the real price of oil or that it would be helpful.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This evidence suggests that, on average, fluctuations in oil inventories mainly reflect speculative trading as well as production smoothing by refiners in response to oil supply shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.2. What Drives Fluctuations in Oil Inventories and in the Real Price of Oil?
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The explanation is that the invasion of Kuwait in August of 1990 represented two shocks that occurred simultaneously.On the one hand it involved an unexpected flow supply disruption and on the other an unexpected increase in speculative demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
plaindirectSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“These estimates imply a larger role for flow supply shocks than the structural VAR model in Kilian (2009a,b), for example, illustrating the importance of explicitly modeling speculative demand shocks and oil inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Kilian (2009a,b)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Whereas the flow supply shock caused a decline in oil inventories, increased speculative demand in August caused an increase in oil inventories, with the net effect being a modest decline in oil inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“the evidence in Figure 2 suggests that the distinction between normal speculation and speculation that is excessive is moot, for if there is no speculation in the physical market at all there cannot have been excessive speculation either under any definition.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fattouh et al. (2013) source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“it is essential that we impose all credible identifying restrictions for identification for the estimates to be economically meaningful.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.1. Impact Sign Restrictions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
In the paper
“To our knowledge, this distinctionwith the exception of Considine (1997) has not been discussed in the literature, nor has there been any attempt in the literature to estimate this oil demand elasticity in use.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.3. Bound on the Impact Price Elasticity of Oil Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Considine (1997) source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These restrictions follow directly from the economic model outlined in Section 2.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.1. Impact Sign Restrictions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hence 'peak oil' may be safely ruled out as an explanation of the surge in the real price of oil after 2003, along with financial speculation and speculation by oil producers.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In light of this evidence, neither the supply shock explanation nor the speculative demand shock explanation by itself seems compelling.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“our model remains well specified even if the arbitrage between spot and futures markets were less than perfect at times, whereas a model including the oil futures spread would become invalid in that case.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.3. Why Do We not Include the Oil Futures Spread?
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We conclude that economic fundamentals on the demand side of the oil market are capable of explaining the evolution of the real price of oil during the last decade.No non-standard explanations are required.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Recently, Hamilton (2009a) observed that speculation in oil futures markets may drive up the real price of oil even without any increase in oil inventories, if refiners are able to pass on fully to gasoline consumers an exogenous increase in the real price of oil driven by speculation.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton (2009a)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This last example again underscores that geopolitical events in the Middle East matter not merely because of the disruptions of the flow supply of oil they may create, but also because of their effect on speculative demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
plaindirectSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All else equal, standard models of speculation imply that oil inventories must increase to enable the real price of oil to increase.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While there is little doubt that the price elasticity of oil supply is near zero in the short run, the literature does not offer much direct evidence on the magnitude of the short-run price elasticity of oil demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although there is no shortage of elasticity estimates in the literature that seem to confirm this impression, these estimates suffer from two limitations.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“For example, surveys by Dahl (1993) and Cooper (2003) report estimates between À0.05 and À0.07.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.1. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Production
What the sources say
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Even higher oil demand elasticity estimates have been obtained independently by other recent studies employing structural estimation methods.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It should be noted, however, that historical decompositions for the real price of oil rely on the assumption of covariance stationarity and would not be valid in the presence of unit roots.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The real price of oil is covariance stationary for the historical decompositions.
In the paper
“This implication is fully consistent with other, more direct evidence on the potential impact of financial investors on oil futures prices (seeFattouh et al., 2013).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fattouh et al., 2013 source
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The model implies that the real price of oil is expected to rise further as the global economy recovers from the financial crisis, creating a policy dilemma, unless energy consumption can be reduced or new energy sources can be found.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Limits to arbitrage, of course, would undermine the argument that financial speculation is driving the spot price.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both forms of speculation are permitted by our model, but only speculation that involves the accumulation of inventories above the ground is explicitly identified.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The structural shocks in the model are mutually uncorrelated.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since the impulse response estimates presented below are reasonably precisely estimated, this is not a concern in this study.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The potential cost of not imposing unit roots in estimation is a loss of asymptotic efficiency, which would be reflected in wider error bands.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Oil supply shocks played a small role only, violating the premise of Hamilton's calculations.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton (2009a,b)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The level specification adopted in this paper has the advantage that the impulse response estimates are asymptotically valid not only under the maintained assumption of a stationary real price of oil, but robust to departures from that assumption, whereas incorrectly differencing the real price of oil would cause these estimates to be inconsistent.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Instead, anecdotal evidence suggests that oil producers such as Saudi Arabia have often increased their production levels following positive speculative demand shocks, consistent with the view that the expected impact response should be weakly positive.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our model also reconciles some seemingly puzzling observations related to earlier oil price surges.”
- Also stated in: § 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use · boosted
“We demonstrated that this inventory puzzle can be resolved with the help of a structural oil market model.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The quote only partly states this claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The structural shocks in the model are mutually uncorrelated.
- Also stated in: § 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use · boosted
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because the implied inventory responses are of opposite sign, the net effect in inventories is close to zero, where the sharp price increase reflects the fact that the implied price responses are of the same sign.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The structural shocks in the model are mutually uncorrelated.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“None of these studies accounts for changes in inventories, however.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Note that we do not need to restrict the oil demand elasticity in production.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Note that by construction Use t depends on Q t À 1 and hence will be time-varying even though the oil demand elasticity in production is not.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Additional information
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Prior to the shock, the change in crude oil inventories is equal to its mean ΔS.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“In related work,Yatchew and No (2001) using more detailed Canadian data arrive at a long-run gasoline demand elasticity estimate of À0.9, very close to Hausman and Newey's original estimate.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Yatchew and No (2001) source
- Not matchedcites Hausman and Newey
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our impact sign restrictions ensure that this elasticity is weakly negative on impact.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Arbitrage between the spot and futures markets for crude oil holds.
“under the maintained assumption of arbitrage between spot and futures markets”
“there is an arbitrage condition linking the oil futures market and the spot market for crude oil.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The oil refining industry satisfies assumptions such that the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand is about as high as the short-run price elasticity of oil demand.
“under reasonable assumptions about the oil refining industry the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand is about as high as the short-run price elasticity of oil demand.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The impact elasticity of oil demand in use is weakly negative on average over the sample.
“A natural additional identifying assumption is that the impact elasticity of oil demand in use, Use t , must be weakly negative on average over the sample.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The impact price elasticity of oil demand is lower in magnitude than the corresponding long-run price elasticity of oil demand.
“It is reasonable to presume that the impact price elasticity of oil demand is lower in magnitude than the corresponding long-run price elasticity of oil demand”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Under the standard assumption of arbitrage between the futures and spot markets for oil, the absence of speculation in the spot market rules out speculation in oil futures markets.
“under the standard assumption of arbitrage between the futures and spot markets for oil maintained by proponents of the financial speculation hypothesis”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In the model, OPEC holding back oil production in anticipation of rising oil prices is observationally equivalent to a negative flow supply shock.
“In our model, OPEC holding back oil production in anticipation of rising oil prices would be observationally equivalent to a negative flow supply shock.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The price elasticity of oil supply is near zero in the short run.
“While there is little doubt that the price elasticity of oil supply is near zero in the short run”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The speculative demand shock is a composite of expectations shocks related to shifts in uncertainty and to the anticipation of rising oil demand and/or falling oil supplies.
“Given that this shock is a composite of expectations shocks related to shifts in uncertainty and to the anticipation of rising oil demand and/or falling oil supplies, it is impossible to determine the sign of these responses ex ante beyond the impact period.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Standard structural VAR models of the market for crude oil implicitly equate oil production with oil consumption and ignore the role of oil inventories.
“Standard structural VAR models of the market for crude oil implicitly equate oil production with oil consumption and ignore the role of oil inventories.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Typical estimates of the oil demand elasticity in the literature have been based on models that equate the percent change in quantity with the percent change in the production of crude oil, ignoring the existence of oil inventories.
“Second, typical estimates of the oil demand elasticity in the literature have been based on models that equate the percent change in quantity with the percent change in the production of crude oil, ignoring the existence of oil inventories.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The structural shocks in the model are mutually uncorrelated.
“Our analysis is based on the premise that these shocks are mutually uncorrelated, but allows multiple shocks to occur at the same time.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The real price of oil is covariance stationary for the historical decompositions.
“historical decompositions for the real price of oil rely on the assumption of covariance stationarity and would not be valid in the presence of unit roots.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Oil below ground (reserves) is inaccessible in the short run and not available for consumption smoothing.
“Unlike above-ground oil inventories that can be drawn down at short notice, oil below the ground (also known as reserves) is inaccessible in the short run and not available for consumption smoothing.”
The paper relies on this without support.
No reliable time series data exist on the quantity of oil below the ground.
“We do not utilize data for reserves because no reliable time series data exist on the quantity of oil below the ground and because reserves data are not required for our identification.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In practice, it will often take years for significant production increases.
“In practice, it will often take years for significant production increases.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Prior to the shock, the change in crude oil inventories is equal to its mean ΔS.
“prior to the shock, the change in crude oil inventories is equal to its mean ΔS; which is observable.”
Citations
Cites
Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market
Kilian, L. (2009) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.99.3.1053 · Cited by 4,708
Self-citationWhat are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure
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THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE U.S. STOCK MARKET*
Kilian, L., & Park, C. (2009) · International Economic Review · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2354.2009.00568.x · Cited by 1,839
Self-citationThe Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks
Kilian, L. (2008) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.46.4.871 · Cited by 1,299
Self-citationUnderstanding Crude Oil Prices
Hamilton, J. D. (2008) · The Energy Journal · doi:10.3386/w14492 · Cited by 1,271
Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08
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Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08
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Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference
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Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?
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Self-citationMonetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7
Canova, F., & Nicoló, G. D. (2002) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/s0304-3932(02)00145-9 · Cited by 750
What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?
Alquist, R., & Kilian, L. (2010) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.1159 · Cited by 744
Self-citationOil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: A Comment
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Understanding Crude Oil Prices
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Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
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“For example, Hughes et al. (2008) report an average elasticity estimate of 0.”
InfluentialHow sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?
Edelstein, P., & Kilian, L. (2009) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.06.001 · Cited by 581
Self-citationDo We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative
Barsky, R. B., & Kilian, L. (2001) · NBER Macroeconomics Annual · doi:10.1086/654439 · Cited by 551
Self-citationWHY AGNOSTIC SIGN RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ENOUGH: UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF OIL MARKET VAR MODELS
Kilian, L., & Murphy, D. P. (2012) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01080.x · Cited by 544
Self-citationAnalysing gasoline demand elasticities: a survey
Dahl, C., & Sterner, T. (1991) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/0140-9883(91)90021-q · Cited by 513
The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?
Fattouh, B., Kilian, L., & Mahadeva, L. (2013) · The Energy Journal · doi:10.5547/01956574.34.3.2 · Cited by 491
Self-citationBaumeister, C., & Peersman, G. (2013) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.2283 · Cited by 405
Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?
Kilian, L., & Hicks, B. (2013) · Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1002/for.2243 · Cited by 371
Self-citationOil Shocks and External Balances
Kilian, L., Rebucci, A., & Spatafora, N. L. (2007) · Journal of International Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.01.001 · Cited by 362
Self-citationReal-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil
Baumeister, C. J. S., & Kilian, L. (2012) · Journal of Business and Economic Statistics · doi:10.1080/07350015.2011.648859 · Cited by 357
Self-citationPrice elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries
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Nonparametric Estimation of Exact Consumers Surplus and Deadweight Loss
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Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions
Davis, L. W., & Kilian, L. (2011) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.1156 · Cited by 262
Self-citationInference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models
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Self-citationConant, M. A., & Yergin, D. (1993) · The American Historical Review · doi:10.1086/ahr/98.3.839 · Cited by 218
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Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances
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Household Gasoline Demand in the United States
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Self-citationHousehold Gasoline Demand in Canada
Yatchew, A., & No, J. A. (2001) · Econometrica · doi:10.1111/1468-0262.00264 · Cited by 143
Does Information Help Recovering Structural Shocks from past Observations?
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Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios
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Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US EconomyPreprint
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International Evidence on Sectoral Interfuel Substitution
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The Effects of Oil Price Changes on the Industry-Level Production and Prices in the U.S. and Japan
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Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review
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Baumeister, C. J. S., & Hamilton, J. D. (2019) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20151569 · Cited by 920
Financialization of commodity markets
Cheng, I.-H., & Xiong, W. (2014) · Annual Review of Financial Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-financial-110613-034432 · Cited by 810
A model of financialization of commodities
BASAK, S., & PAVLOVA, A. (2016) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.12408 · Cited by 595
Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages
Büyükşahin, B., & Robe, M. A. (2013) · Journal of International Money and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.08.004 · Cited by 618
Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us
Baumeister, C. J. S., & Kilian, L. (2016) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.30.1.139 · Cited by 558
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Kilian, L., & Murphy, D. P.
- Affiliations
- University of Michigan (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kilian, Lutz
- Venue
- Journal of Applied Econometrics
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-04-10
- Volume
- 29
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 454-478
- ISSN
- 0883-7252 (ISSN-L)
- 1099-1255
- OpenAlex
- W2113983529
- Semantic Scholar
- 858b375e99bb75d9a6716db6a51f2ca2a0c84ddb
- Cited by
- 1,472
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 130 · 2025: 122 · 2024: 110 · 2023: 110 · 2022: 110 · 2021: 132 · 2020: 113 · 2019: 89 · 2018: 99 · 2017: 102 · 2016: 88 · 2015: 69 · 2014: 70 · 2013: 64
- FWCI
- 205.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Applied Econometrics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
- Deep Blue (University of Michigan) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
- Keywords
- crude oil market, oil inventories, speculative trading, oil price shocks, oil demand elasticity, oil supply shocks, oil consumption, oil market regulation
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-11, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-11 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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