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THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL
Open accessAbstract
SUMMARY We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to flow demand and flow supply. The speculative component of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data on oil inventories. Our estimates rule out explanations of the 2003–2008 oil price surge based on unexpectedly diminishing oil supplies and based on speculative trading. Instead, this surge was caused by unexpected increases in world oil consumption driven by the global business cycle. There is evidence, however, that speculative demand shifts played an important role during earlier oil price shock episodes including 1979, 1986 and 1990. Our analysis implies that additional regulation of oil markets would not have prevented the 2003–2008 oil price surge. We also show that, even after accounting for the role of inventories in smoothing oil consumption, our estimate of the short‐run price elasticity of oil demand is much higher than traditional estimates from dynamic models that do not account for for the endogeneity of the price of oil. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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58 No basis given · 56 Own interpretation · 49 Own result · 19 Own method · 18 Sources not found · 12 No full text of the sources · 7 Not checked yet · 1 Couldn’t confirm · accuracy not yet measured
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“There is a consensus in the literature that this shortrun price elasticity of oil supply is close to zero, if not effectively zero.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.2. Bound on the Impact Price Elasticity of Oil Supply
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [14] 14. Davis LW, Kilian L. 2011. Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions. Journal of Applied Econo- metrics 16: 1187-1214. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 4.1 (Price Specification; page unavailable) discusses a flat short-run gasoline supply curve as a modeling assumption. The passages found when searching for short-run oil supply elasticity and a literature consensus do not address either claim about oil supply. (LLM, conf=0.77)
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“Our estimates rule out explanations of the 2003-2008 oil price surge based on unexpectedly diminishing oil supplies and based on speculative trading.”
- Also stated in: § 1. INTRODUCTION · plain
“our estimates rule out speculation as a cause of the surge in the real price of oil between 2003 and mid 2008.”
- Also stated in: § 1. INTRODUCTION · plain
“all speculative trading in the spot market for crude oil combined had little effect on the real price of oil between 2003 and mid 2008”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Abstract
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“It also played a central role in 1990, following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“We also show that, even after accounting for the role of inventories in smoothing oil consumption, our estimate of the short-run price elasticity of oil demand is much higher than traditional estimates from dynamic models that do not account for for the endogeneity of the price of oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Abstract
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“There is evidence, however, that speculative demand shifts played an important role during earlier oil price shock episodes including 1979, 1986 and 1990.”
- Also stated in: § 1. INTRODUCTION · plain
“although speculative trading does not explain the recent surge in the real price of oil, we show that it played an important role in several earlier oil price shock episodes.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Abstract
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“it helps explain the sharp decline in the real price of oil in early 1986 after the collapse of OPEC.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“Our posterior median estimate of the short-run price elasticity of oil demand of À0.26 is four times higher than standard estimates in the literature and there is little probability mass on values close to zero.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“Our estimates rule out explanations of the 2003-2008 oil price surge based on unexpectedly diminishing oil supplies and based on speculative trading.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Abstract
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“there is evidence that the recovery of the real price of oil starting in 1999, following an all-time low in post-war history, was aided by coordinated supply cuts.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“In contrast, flow supply shocks played only a minor role in 1979.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“Preliminary tests provided no evidence of cointegration between oil production and oil inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.1. Data
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“Our posterior median estimate of the short-run price elasticity of oil demand of À0.26 is four times higher than standard estimates in the literature and there is little probability mass on values close to zero.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“Our model suggests that even after controlling for the effect of other shocks on crude oil inventories there is no evidence of rising speculative demand after 2003.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“Our posterior median estimate of the short-run price elasticity of oil demand of À0.26 is four times higher than standard estimates in the literature and there is little probability mass on values close to zero.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“it was a central feature of the oil price surge of 1979, following the Iranian Revolution, consistent with the narrative evidence in Barsky and Kilian (2002)”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Barsky and Kilian (2002)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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“A flow supply disruption causes inventories to be drawn down in an effort to smooth production of refined products.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
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“This result is consistent with a sharp increase in oil inventories in the months leading up to the invasion.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
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“What evidence there is of a small supply-side-driven increase in the real price of oil is dwarfed by the price increases associated with flow demand shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
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“A positive speculative demand shock causes a persistent increase in oil inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
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“the resurgence of the real price of oil starting in early 2009 reflected primarily increased flow demand (see Figure 2).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
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“It can be shown that in the short run 29% of the variation in crude oil inventories is driven by speculative demand shocks, followed by oil supply shocks with 26%.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.2. What Drives Fluctuations in Oil Inventories and in the Real Price of Oil?
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“Baumeister and Kilian (2012a) show that reduced-form VAR models based on our oil inventory proxy generate more accurate real-time out-of-sample forecasts of the real price of oil than other methods even during 2009-2011, further strengthening our claim that the oil inventory proxy is reasonably accurate.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.4. How Accurate Are the Oil Inventory Data?
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Baumeister and Kilian (2012a)
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“Figure 2 shows that there is no evidence to support this view.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
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“Flow demand shocks have a negligible impact with 2%.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.2. What Drives Fluctuations in Oil Inventories and in the Real Price of Oil?
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“It can be shown that doubling this bound, while increasing the number of admissible models, has little effect on the shape of the posterior distribution of the impulse responses.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.2. Bound on the Impact Price Elasticity of Oil Supply
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“There has been no systematic upward movement in the real price of oil after 2003 associated with speculative demand shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
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“For example, in the long run, 87% of the variation in the real price of oil can be attributed to flow demand shocks, compared with 9% due to speculative demand shocks and 3% due to flow supply shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.2. What Drives Fluctuations in Oil Inventories and in the Real Price of Oil?
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“the estimates of the posterior median price elasticity of oil demand reported in Section 5 are remarkably robust to this change.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.2. Bound on the Impact Price Elasticity of Oil Supply
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“The bottom panel of Figure 2 reveals there was in fact a substantial increase in speculative demand already in the months leading up to the invasion.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
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“For example, in the long run, 87% of the variation in the real price of oil can be attributed to flow demand shocks, compared with 9% due to speculative demand shocks and 3% due to flow supply shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.2. What Drives Fluctuations in Oil Inventories and in the Real Price of Oil?
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“It peaks after three months.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
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“We formally tested this proposition and were unable to reject the null of no Granger causality at conventional significance levels for maturities of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, consistent with the view that the inventory data are as accurate as the oil futures spread.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.4. How Accurate Are the Oil Inventory Data?
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Giannone and Reichlin, 2006 source
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“The real price of oil rises only temporarily.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
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“Figure 2 provides no indication that negative flow supply shocks were an important determinant of the real price of oil between 2003 and mid 2008.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
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“Oil production also rises somewhat, but only temporarily.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
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“It causes a persistent hump-shaped increase in the real price of oil with a peak after one year.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
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“After one year, oil inventories reach a level in excess of their starting level.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
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“Figure 3 also highlights that the decline in the real price of oil starting in November of 1990, when the threat of Saudi oil fields being captured by Iraq had been removed by the presence of US troops, was almost entirely caused by a reduction in speculative demand rather than increased oil supplies.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
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“At long horizons, in contrast, the explanatory power of speculative demand shocks declines to 27% and that of flow supply shocks to 24%, while the explanatory power of flow demand shocks increases to 15%.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.2. What Drives Fluctuations in Oil Inventories and in the Real Price of Oil?
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“A positive shock to the flow demand for crude oil, in contrast, is associated with a persistent increase in global real activity.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
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In the paper
“At long horizons, in contrast, the explanatory power of speculative demand shocks declines to 27% and that of flow supply shocks to 24%, while the explanatory power of flow demand shocks increases to 15%.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.2. What Drives Fluctuations in Oil Inventories and in the Real Price of Oil?
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In the paper
“It can be shown that in the short run 29% of the variation in crude oil inventories is driven by speculative demand shocks, followed by oil supply shocks with 26%.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.2. What Drives Fluctuations in Oil Inventories and in the Real Price of Oil?
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In the paper
“It shows that about one third of the price increase from July to August of 1990 was caused by speculative demand shocks and two thirds by flow supply shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
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In the paper
“The effects on global real activity and global oil production are largely negative, but small.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
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In the paper
“For example, in the long run, 87% of the variation in the real price of oil can be attributed to flow demand shocks, compared with 9% due to speculative demand shocks and 3% due to flow supply shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.2. What Drives Fluctuations in Oil Inventories and in the Real Price of Oil?
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In the paper
“At long horizons, in contrast, the explanatory power of speculative demand shocks declines to 27% and that of flow supply shocks to 24%, while the explanatory power of flow demand shocks increases to 15%.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.2. What Drives Fluctuations in Oil Inventories and in the Real Price of Oil?
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In the paper
“Speculative demand also played an important role in 1979.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.5. What Caused the 1979 and 1980 Oil Price Shocks?
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In the paper
“Despite the additional loss of Iraqi output in early 2003, global oil production unexpectedly increased.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
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In the paper
“As shown in the online Appendix (supporting information), the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand is approximately of the same magnitude as the shortrun price elasticity of oil demand in use.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
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In the paper
“There is also evidence of a small resurgence of speculative demand following the outbreak of the war, reflected in rising inventories and a higher real price of oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > SPECULATION IN OIL MARKETS
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In the paper
“The production shortfalls in Iraq and Venezuela were more than offset at the global level by increased oil production elsewhere.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
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In the paper
“Much of the observed increase in the real price of oil, however, only occurred later in 1979 after Iranian oil production had resumed.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.5. What Caused the 1979 and 1980 Oil Price Shocks?
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In the paper
“As Figure 5 shows, the increase in the real price of oil in response to this flow supply disruption was slightly larger than the price response to the 1979 supply disruption.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > SPECULATION IN OIL MARKETS
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In the paper
“In contrast, there is little evidence of flow supply shocks being responsible for the oil price surge of 1979, consistent with the fact that overall global oil production increased in 1979, reflecting additional oil production outside of Iran.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.5. What Caused the 1979 and 1980 Oil Price Shocks?
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In the paper
“Our posterior median estimate of this elasticity, as shown in the first column of the upper panel of Table II, is À0.44.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.1. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Production
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In the paper
“Moreover, the second column of Table II again shows that there is little probability mass on elasticity values close to zero, casting doubt on models of speculation that do not involve a change in oil inventories.24”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
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In the paper
“For example, our structural model implies a larger role for flow supply shocks in explaining fluctuations in the real price of oil than previous estimates.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Rests on an assumption: Standard structural VAR models of the market for crude oil implicitly equate oil production with oil consumption and ignore the role of oil inventories.
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In the paper
“Shifts in speculative demand played a more important role during several earlier oil price shock episodes, however, notably in 1979, 1986, 1990 and 2002.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
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In the paper
“Similar relationships were shown to hold during other key historical episodes.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Oil supply shocks played a small role only, violating the premise of Hamilton's calculations.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: The real price of oil is covariance stationary for the historical decompositions.
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In the paper
“In the context of a model that nests all leading explanations of how this oil price surge came about, we were able to provide direct evidence against the popular view that this increase was driven by speculators.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
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In the paper
“We showed that oil demand shocks were the main cause of the observed oil price increase in 1978-1981.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The added explanatory power of flow supply shocks for the real price of oil, especially in 1990, comes at the expense of the explanatory power of speculative demand shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Rests on an assumption: Standard structural VAR models of the market for crude oil implicitly equate oil production with oil consumption and ignore the role of oil inventories.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Likewise, the collapse of the real price of oil in late 2008 and its partial recovery since early 2009 have been primarily driven by flow demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
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In the paper
“Our short-run elasticity estimates are substantially higher than standard estimates cited in the literature, casting doubt on models of speculative trading based on perfectly price-inelastic short-run demand for oil and for gasoline.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
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In the paper
“This conclusion holds even for the 2007/08 period.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
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In the paper
“Rather, our results support recent findings in the literature that the sustained run-up in the real price of oil between 2003 and mid 2008 was caused primarily by shifts in the global flow demand for oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
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In the paper
“Our analysis showed that the price and inventory data can be explained only based on a combination of these two shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirectSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“it also incorporates for the first time changes in oil inventories in computing the price elasticity of oil demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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“The accumulation of inventories is accomplished by a reduction in oil consumption (reflected in lower global real activity) and an increase in oil production, as the real price increases.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
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In the paper
“We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to flow demand and flow supply.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Abstract
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In the paper
“Not only does this model allow the construction of a direct estimate of the elasticity parameter based on exogenous shifts of the oil supply curve along the oil demand curve”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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In the paper
“the analysis in Alquist and Kilian implies that data on the oil futures spread are redundant in our structural VAR model, given that we have already included changes in above-ground oil inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.3. Why Do We not Include the Oil Futures Spread?
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Alquist and Kilian
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A positive speculative demand shock will shift the demand for above-ground oil inventories, causing in equilibrium the level of inventories and the real price of oil to increase on impact.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
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In the paper
“we conclude that, with the exception of 1990, the major oil price shocks were driven primarily by oil demand shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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In the paper
“Our analysis implies that additional regulation of oil markets would not have prevented the 2003-2008 oil price surge.”
- Also stated in: § 1. INTRODUCTION · plain
“additional regulation of oil futures markets would not have prevented the increase in the real price of oil in the physical market for oil”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Abstract
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In the paper
“We provide a theoretical model that shows that under reasonable assumptions about the oil refining industry the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand is about as high as the short-run price elasticity of oil demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“under the maintained assumption of arbitrage between spot and futures markets, the absence of speculative pressures in the spot market implies that there cannot have been speculative pressures in the oil futures market either.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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In the paper
“The speculative component of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data on oil inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Abstract
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In the paper
“Instead, this surge was caused by unexpected increases in world oil consumption driven by the global business cycle.”
- Also stated in: § 1. INTRODUCTION · plain
“our model implies that both spot and futures prices during 2003-2008 were driven by unexpected increases in world oil consumption.”
- Also stated in: § 1. INTRODUCTION · plain
“unexpected fluctuations in global real activity explain most of the surge in the real price of oil between 2003 and mid 2008”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Abstract
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In the paper
“Thus the limiting case of a zero price elasticity of demand discussed by Hamilton (2009a) is an unlikely explanation of the 2003-2008 surge in the real price of oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton (2009a)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Not matched
In the paper
“An unexpected increase in the uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls would have much the same effect.This point has been demonstrated formally in a general equilibrium model by Alquist and Kilian (2010).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Alquist and Kilian (2010) source
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In the paper
“These existing elasticity estimates, however, are based on dynamic reduced-form regressions that ignore the endogeneity of the real price of oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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In the paper
“Given that crude oil is storable, the real price of oil also depends on the demand for oil stocks or inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
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In the paper
“our model implies that both spot and futures prices during 2003-2008 were driven by unexpected increases in world oil consumption.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Arbitrage between the spot and futures markets for crude oil holds.
In the paper
“Their estimate suggests a bound of À0:8≤ Use t ≤0.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.3. Bound on the Impact Price Elasticity of Oil Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hausman and Newey (1995) source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: The impact price elasticity of oil demand is lower in magnitude than the corresponding long-run price elasticity of oil demand.
In the paper
“Even professional forecasters persistently underestimated global growth during 2003-2008, especially growth in emerging Asia, lending credence to our model results.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Kilian and Hicks (2013) source
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In the paper
“Our structural model also implies that even dramatic increases in US oil production would not lower the real price of oil substantially at the global level, while a full recovery of the global economy would raise the real price of oil by as much as $50 in real terms (see Baumeister and Kilian, 2012b).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Baumeister and Kilian, 2012b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“This finding is important because it implies that further regulation of oil markets would have done nothing to stem the increase in the real price of oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“It supports the substantive conclusion in Kilian (2009a,b) that the surge in the real price of oil between 2003 and mid 2008 was mainly caused by shifts in the flow demand for crude oil associated with the global business cycle.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Kilian (2009a,b)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“consistent with the view that the inventory data are as accurate as the oil futures spread.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.4. How Accurate Are the Oil Inventory Data?
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In the paper
“inventory data allow us to impose identifying information about the price elasticity of oil demand, which could not be imposed when using the oil futures spread.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.3. Why Do We not Include the Oil Futures Spread?
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In the paper
“Thus there is reason to believe that our inventory data, while less than perfect, are still informative.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.4. How Accurate Are the Oil Inventory Data?
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In the paper
“A benchmark for that long-run elasticity is provided by studies of nonparametric gasoline demand functions based on US household survey data such as Hausman and Newey (1995), which have consistently produced long-run price elasticity estimates near À0.8.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.3. Bound on the Impact Price Elasticity of Oil Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hausman and Newey (1995) source
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Impact sign restrictions alone are typically too weak to be informative about the effects of oil demand and oil supply shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.1. Impact Sign Restrictions
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In the paper
“Although speculative motives played no important role after 2003, there are other oil price shock episodes when they did, suggesting that our model has the ability to detect speculative demand shocks when they exist.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
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In the paper
“Our model shows that the run-up in the real price of oil occurred because of the cumulative effects of many positive flow demand shocks over the course of several years.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“We also conducted the same analysis with every other admissible structural model and verified that our main results are robust to the choice of admissible model.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4. ESTIMATION RESULTS
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In the paper
“Second, this result tells us that an exogenous influx of financial speculators cannot have driven up the oil futures price, becauseunder the standard assumption of arbitrage between the futures and spot markets for oil maintained by proponents of the financial speculation hypothesisthe absence of speculation in the spot market also rules speculation in oil futures markets.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Under the standard assumption of arbitrage between the futures and spot markets for oil, the absence of speculation in the spot market rules out speculation in oil futures markets.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Given one of the largest unexpected oil supply disruptions in history, one would have expected a much larger decline in oil inventories given the impulse response estimates in Figure 1.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
hedgedconditionalSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“At the same time, the observed large increase in the real price of oil was caused by both shocks working in the same direction.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
plaindirectSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Our structural VAR model is set-identified based on a combination of sign restrictions and bounds on the implied price elasticities of oil demand and oil supply.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3. IDENTIFICATION
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In the paper
“Our structural model also implies that even dramatic increases in US oil production would not lower the real price of oil substantially at the global level, while a full recovery of the global economy would raise the real price of oil by as much as $50 in real terms (see Baumeister and Kilian, 2012b).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Baumeister and Kilian, 2012b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the presence of changes in oil inventories that definition is inappropriate.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.3. Bound on the Impact Price Elasticity of Oil Demand
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The relevant quantity measure is instead the sum of the flow of oil production and the depletion of oil inventories triggered by an oil supply shock.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.3. Bound on the Impact Price Elasticity of Oil Demand
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Hence we can reject the speculative supply shock hypothesis.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: In the model, OPEC holding back oil production in anticipation of rising oil prices is observationally equivalent to a negative flow supply shock.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus there is no indication that flow supply shocks played an important role in the oil price surge of 1979.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > SPECULATION IN OIL MARKETS
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Taken in conjunction our evidence implies a much larger role for speculative demand in 1990/91 than the data for the month of August alone would suggest.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Whether the limiting case discussed in Hamilton (2009a) is empirically relevant thus depends on the magnitude of the short-run price elasticity of oil demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton (2009a)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Rests on an assumption: The price elasticity of oil supply is near zero in the short run.
- Not matched
In the paper
“The combined cutback in oil production was of a magnitude similar to the oil supply disruptions of the 1970s (see Kilian, 2008a).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Kilian, 2008a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“For example, it is a key parameter in the theoretical models of speculation L. KILIAN AND D. P. MURPHY 472 Caballero et al. (2008) and Hamilton (2009a).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Caballero et al. (2008) source
- Not matchedcites Hamilton (2009a)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The posterior median estimate of O, Production in the first column of Table II, while instructive when compared to conventional estimates, is misleading in that it ignores the role of inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Rests on an assumption: Typical estimates of the oil demand elasticity in the literature have been based on models that equate the percent change in quantity with the percent change in the production of crude oil, ignoring the existence of oil inventories.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Indeed, this result illustrates that relatively high short-run price elasticities of oil demand are fully compatible with the view that economic fundamentals are responsible for the surge in the real price of oil after 2003.23”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“By construction, allowing for inventory responses will tend to lower the magnitude of the price elasticity of oil demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Rests on an assumption: Typical estimates of the oil demand elasticity in the literature have been based on models that equate the percent change in quantity with the percent change in the production of crude oil, ignoring the existence of oil inventories.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This fact helps explain the low elasticity estimates typically reported in the literature.21”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“First, much of the existing literature has attempted to estimate the oil demand elasticity from dynamic reduced-form models that do not distinguish between oil demand and oil supply shocks (see, for example, Dahl, 1993; Cooper, 2003).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
What the sources say
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The difference in results can be attributed to the difference between estimating a structural and a reduced-form model.22”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.1. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Production
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The reason is that traders in anticipation of the expected oil shortage will buy and store crude oil now with the expectation of selling later at a profit.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is also much higher in magnitude than conventional reduced-form regression estimates of this elasticity.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.1. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Production
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This is not possible because the identification of the demand elasticity requires an exogenous shift of the contemporaneous oil supply curve along the contemporaneous oil demand curve within the context of a structural model.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Reduced-form estimates of the oil demand elasticity fail to account for the endogeneity of the price of crude oil and hence are biased toward zero.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While this large reduction in the magnitude of the elasticity highlights the importance of accounting for changes in oil inventories, the revised median estimate is still four times larger than conventional elasticity estimates.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Typical estimates of the oil demand elasticity in the literature have been based on models that equate the percent change in quantity with the percent change in the production of crude oil, ignoring the existence of oil inventories.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While this large reduction in the magnitude of the elasticity highlights the importance of accounting for changes in oil inventories, the revised median estimate is still four times larger than conventional elasticity estimates.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Typical estimates of the oil demand elasticity in the literature have been based on models that equate the percent change in quantity with the percent change in the production of crude oil, ignoring the existence of oil inventories.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The inclusion of oil inventories matters.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Standard structural VAR models of the market for crude oil implicitly equate oil production with oil consumption and ignore the role of oil inventories.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This estimate is seven times higher than typical conjectures in the recent literature.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.1. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Production
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Moreover, the second column of Table II again shows that there is little probability mass on elasticity values close to zero, casting doubt on models of speculation that do not involve a change in oil inventories.24”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Another way of putting these results into perspective is to observe that other recent studies relying on alternative structural models have obtained similarly large oil demand elasticity estimates ranging from À0.35 to À0.41 (see, for example, Serletis et al., 2010; Bodenstein and Guerrieri, 2012; Baumeister and Peersman, 2013).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.1. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Production
What the sources say
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Such speculative demand shocks must be represented as shifts of the contemporaneous oil demand curve rather than the contemporaneous oil supply curve, even if the shift in expectations is about a cut in future oil supplies rather than an increase in future oil demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We showed that, without accounting for shifts in the speculative demand for oil, it is not possible to understand the evolution of the real price of oil during these episodes.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The latter form of 'speculative supply shock' would be associated with a negative flow supply shock in our framework rather than the building of above-ground inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“By contrast, additional regulation of oil derivatives markets is not likely to lower the real price of oil, nor can increased domestic oil production in the USA be expected to have much of an effect on the global real price of oil (also see Baumeister and Kilian, 2012b).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Baumeister and Kilian, 2012b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This result breaks down only if demand for oil is completely price inelastic, a case that we discuss in more detail in section 5.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is important to note that our conclusion regarding the determinants of the spot price of oil would remain equally valid if there were limits to arbitrage between spot and futures markets.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although oil producers could conceivably react to the same news that triggers a positive speculative demand shock by lowering oil production in anticipation of predictable increases of the real price, there is no evidence that oil producers have responded systematically in this way.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We provided a model that allows the estimation of both the traditional oil demand elasticity in production and of the more relevant oil demand elasticity in use which incorporates changes in oil inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We also observed that traditional estimates of the short-run price elasticity of oil demand are not credible.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our short-run elasticity estimates are substantially higher than standard estimates cited in the literature, casting doubt on models of speculative trading based on perfectly price-inelastic short-run demand for oil and for gasoline.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“One problem is that conventional estimates of this elasticity from dynamic reduced-form regressions, as in Dahl (1993) and Cooper (2003), have ignored the endogeneity of the real price of oil, causing the elasticity estimate to be downward biased.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“By contrast, additional regulation of oil derivatives markets is not likely to lower the real price of oil, nor can increased domestic oil production in the USA be expected to have much of an effect on the global real price of oil (also see Baumeister and Kilian, 2012b).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Baumeister and Kilian, 2012b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Moreover, existing estimates, including the structural estimates recently provided by Baumeister and Peersman (2013), have ignored the role of inventories in smoothing oil consumption in response to oil supply shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Baumeister and Peersman (2013) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At the same time, the absence of a sharp decline in oil inventories in August of 1990 is inconsistent with the view that the price increase reflected a negative oil supply shock.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Kellogg (2011) using monthly well-level oil production data from Texas finds essentially no response of oil production to either the spot price or the oil futures price.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Kellogg (2011)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Clearly, a situation in which arbitrage breaks down is not consistent with the scenario envisioned by researchers who attribute rising spot prices to speculation by financial investors, because in that case speculationdriven increases in the oil futures price could not possibly be transmitted to the spot price of oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Hamilton (2009b, p. 25) observes that 'in the absence of significant excess production capacity, the short-run price elasticity of oil supply is very low'.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton (2009b)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“although we could still infer whether there is speculation taking place in the spot market.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the limiting case of no arbitrage we would be unable to infer from our model whether there is speculation in oil futures markets”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our analysis of the spot market would remain valid if this arbitrage were impeded or broke down completely”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Kilian (2009a) makes the case that, even in the presence of spare capacity, the response of oil supply within the month to price signals will be negligible because changing oil production is costly.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Kilian (2009a)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“but the oil futures price would become disconnected from the spot price in that case.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 52
- Probably not a substantial claim. 21
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although neither negative flow supply shocks nor positive speculative demand shocks alone can explain the oil price spike and oil inventory behavior of 1990/91, their combined effects do.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The continued rise in the real price of oil in 1980 reflected negative flow supply shocks (caused in part by the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War) as much as continued (if slowing) global growth, amidst declining speculative demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Business cycle factors were also responsible for the bulk of the 1979/80 oil price increase in conjunction with sharply rising speculative demand in the second half of 1979.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“most of the new Chinese oil storage facilities had yet to be filled by the end of our sample, so our analysis is not likely to be affected much.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.4. How Accurate Are the Oil Inventory Data?
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The only difference is that some admissible models assign even more explanatory power to flow demand shocks than the benchmark model at the expense of speculative demand shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4. ESTIMATION RESULTS
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, a positive speculative demand shock is associated with an immediate jump in the real price of oil.The real price response overshoots, before declining gradually.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“leasing tankers is expensive and the extent to which tankers have been used for storage appears small and limited to the very end of our sample.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.4. How Accurate Are the Oil Inventory Data?
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A positive flow demand shock causes almost no change in oil inventories on impact, followed by a temporary drawdown of oil inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we do not report results for this fourth shock but merely note that it is not an important determinant of the real price of oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.1. Impact Sign Restrictions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A negative flow supply shock is also associated with a reduction in global real activity and a persistent drop in oil production, but much of the initial drop is reversed within the first half year.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The V-shaped dip in the real price of oil in 2008/09 coincided with a similar dip in the global real activity measure and is largely driven by flow demand shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“After one year, the real price of oil falls below its starting value, as global real activity drops further.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Inventories declined in August of 1990, but only by one third of a standard deviation of the change in inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These positive flow supply shocks lowered the real price of oil starting in early 2003 and resulted in positive inventory accumulation.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The historical decomposition in Figure 4 confirms that negative flow supply shocks caused a temporary drop in oil inventories in December of 1978 and January of 1979, but for the next half year positive flow supply shocks increased oil inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.5. What Caused the 1979 and 1980 Oil Price Shocks?
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Venezuelan oil supply crisis of late 2002 was associated with declining oil inventories, consistent with an unexpected oil supply disruption, but this period also coincided with an increase in speculative demand in anticipation of the 2003 Iraq War that dampened the decline in inventories, while reinforcing the increase in the real price of oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At the same time, as early as March 2003, lower speculative demand caused the real price of oil to drop and oil inventories to fall.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure 6 shows that, as expected, the positive flow supply shock in early 1986 drove down the real price of oil, while oil inventories rose in response.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At the same time, after March of 1979, repeated speculative demand shocks caused a persistent accumulation of inventories, while driving up the real price of oil.The inventory accumulation continued into 1980.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > SPECULATION IN OIL MARKETS
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Simultaneously, a drop in speculative demand reinforced the decline in the real price of oil, while lowering inventory holdings.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Figure 2 shows that not only was there a dramatic and persistent increase in the real price of oil driven by positive flow demand shocks in 1979 and 1980 (not unlike the persistent price increase after 2003), but that increase was reinforced after May of 1979 by a sharp increase in speculative demand, exactly as described by Yergin (1992).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.5. What Caused the 1979 and 1980 Oil Price Shocks?
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Yergin (1992)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure 7 shows that this event reflected a combination of negative flow supply shocks and positive speculative demand shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“One way of demonstrating this point is to note that fitting the conventional reduced-form log-level specification used in some of the earlier literature to our data would yield an elasticity estimate of only À0.02, in line with the existing consensus.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.1. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Production
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The model assigns substantial probability mass to values between À0.80 and À0.23 and very little probability mass to values close to zero.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.1. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Production
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The second column in the upper panel of Table II shows that posterior median estimate of O, Use is only À0.26, compared with the estimate of À0.44 for the demand elasticity in oil production.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For the period 1987:12-2009:8, the US and OECD petroleum inventory growth rates are reasonably close, with a correlation of about 80%.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Similar results also hold for ex ante real interest rates.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our analysis also suggests that there is no evidence that 'peak oil' (or for that matter deliberate production cutbacks by oil producers) had much bearing on the recent oil price fluctuations.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The reduced-form model allows for two years' worth of lags.This approach is consistent with evidence in Hamilton and Herrera (2004) and Kilian (2009a) on the importance of allowing for long lags in the transmission of oil price shocks and in modeling business cycles in commodity markets.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hamilton and Herrera (2004) source
- Not matchedcites Kilian (2009a)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both flow demand shocks and speculative demand shocks have an expectational component.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The feature that distinguishes flow demand shocks from speculative demand shocks is that positive flow demand shocks necessarily involve an increase in the demand for consumption in the current period, whereas speculative demand shocks do not.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They have no structural interpretation and suffer from downward bias.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 1. INTRODUCTION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“upward revisions to expected future demand for crude oil (or downward revisions to expected future production of crude oil), all else equal, will increase the demand for crude oil inventories in the current period, resulting in an instantaneous shift of the contemporaneous demand curve for oil along the oil supply curve and an increase in the real price of oil.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“a positive flow demand shock (embodied in a shift to the right of the contemporaneous oil demand curve along the oil supply curve, conditional on all past data) raises the real price of oil and stimulates global oil production within the same month.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.2. A Model of the Global Market for Crude Oil
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Indeed, it shows that there is no basis for the premise that such regulation is required to lower the real price of oil or that it would be helpful.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This evidence suggests that, on average, fluctuations in oil inventories mainly reflect speculative trading as well as production smoothing by refiners in response to oil supply shocks.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.2. What Drives Fluctuations in Oil Inventories and in the Real Price of Oil?
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The explanation is that the invasion of Kuwait in August of 1990 represented two shocks that occurred simultaneously.On the one hand it involved an unexpected flow supply disruption and on the other an unexpected increase in speculative demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
plaindirectSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“These estimates imply a larger role for flow supply shocks than the structural VAR model in Kilian (2009a,b), for example, illustrating the importance of explicitly modeling speculative demand shocks and oil inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.1. Responses to Oil Supply and Oil Demand Shocks
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Kilian (2009a,b)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Whereas the flow supply shock caused a decline in oil inventories, increased speculative demand in August caused an increase in oil inventories, with the net effect being a modest decline in oil inventories.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“the evidence in Figure 2 suggests that the distinction between normal speculation and speculation that is excessive is moot, for if there is no speculation in the physical market at all there cannot have been excessive speculation either under any definition.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fattouh et al. (2013) source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“it is essential that we impose all credible identifying restrictions for identification for the estimates to be economically meaningful.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.1. Impact Sign Restrictions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
In the paper
“To our knowledge, this distinctionwith the exception of Considine (1997) has not been discussed in the literature, nor has there been any attempt in the literature to estimate this oil demand elasticity in use.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.3. Bound on the Impact Price Elasticity of Oil Demand
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Considine (1997) source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These restrictions follow directly from the economic model outlined in Section 2.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 3.1. Impact Sign Restrictions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hence 'peak oil' may be safely ruled out as an explanation of the surge in the real price of oil after 2003, along with financial speculation and speculation by oil producers.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In light of this evidence, neither the supply shock explanation nor the speculative demand shock explanation by itself seems compelling.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.4. The Inventory Puzzle of 1990
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“our model remains well specified even if the arbitrage between spot and futures markets were less than perfect at times, whereas a model including the oil futures spread would become invalid in that case.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 2.3. Why Do We not Include the Oil Futures Spread?
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We conclude that economic fundamentals on the demand side of the oil market are capable of explaining the evolution of the real price of oil during the last decade.No non-standard explanations are required.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.3. Did Speculators Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Recently, Hamilton (2009a) observed that speculation in oil futures markets may drive up the real price of oil even without any increase in oil inventories, if refiners are able to pass on fully to gasoline consumers an exogenous increase in the real price of oil driven by speculation.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton (2009a)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This last example again underscores that geopolitical events in the Middle East matter not merely because of the disruptions of the flow supply of oil they may create, but also because of their effect on speculative demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 4.6. The Collapse of OPEC in 1986
plaindirectSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All else equal, standard models of speculation imply that oil inventories must increase to enable the real price of oil to increase.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While there is little doubt that the price elasticity of oil supply is near zero in the short run, the literature does not offer much direct evidence on the magnitude of the short-run price elasticity of oil demand.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although there is no shortage of elasticity estimates in the literature that seem to confirm this impression, these estimates suffer from two limitations.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5. IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL FOR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE ELASTICITY OF OIL DEMAND
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“For example, surveys by Dahl (1993) and Cooper (2003) report estimates between À0.05 and À0.07.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.1. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Production
What the sources say
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Even higher oil demand elasticity estimates have been obtained independently by other recent studies employing structural estimation methods.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It should be noted, however, that historical decompositions for the real price of oil rely on the assumption of covariance stationarity and would not be valid in the presence of unit roots.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The real price of oil is covariance stationary for the historical decompositions.
In the paper
“This implication is fully consistent with other, more direct evidence on the potential impact of financial investors on oil futures prices (seeFattouh et al., 2013).”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fattouh et al., 2013 source
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The model implies that the real price of oil is expected to rise further as the global economy recovers from the financial crisis, creating a policy dilemma, unless energy consumption can be reduced or new energy sources can be found.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Limits to arbitrage, of course, would undermine the argument that financial speculation is driving the spot price.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both forms of speculation are permitted by our model, but only speculation that involves the accumulation of inventories above the ground is explicitly identified.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The structural shocks in the model are mutually uncorrelated.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since the impulse response estimates presented below are reasonably precisely estimated, this is not a concern in this study.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The potential cost of not imposing unit roots in estimation is a loss of asymptotic efficiency, which would be reflected in wider error bands.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Oil supply shocks played a small role only, violating the premise of Hamilton's calculations.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton (2009a,b)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The level specification adopted in this paper has the advantage that the impulse response estimates are asymptotically valid not only under the maintained assumption of a stationary real price of oil, but robust to departures from that assumption, whereas incorrectly differencing the real price of oil would cause these estimates to be inconsistent.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Instead, anecdotal evidence suggests that oil producers such as Saudi Arabia have often increased their production levels following positive speculative demand shocks, consistent with the view that the expected impact response should be weakly positive.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our model also reconciles some seemingly puzzling observations related to earlier oil price surges.”
- Also stated in: § 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use · boosted
“We demonstrated that this inventory puzzle can be resolved with the help of a structural oil market model.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The structural shocks in the model are mutually uncorrelated.
- Also stated in: § 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use · boosted
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because the implied inventory responses are of opposite sign, the net effect in inventories is close to zero, where the sharp price increase reflects the fact that the implied price responses are of the same sign.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The structural shocks in the model are mutually uncorrelated.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“None of these studies accounts for changes in inventories, however.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Note that we do not need to restrict the oil demand elasticity in production.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Note that by construction Use t depends on Q t À 1 and hence will be time-varying even though the oil demand elasticity in production is not.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > Additional information
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Prior to the shock, the change in crude oil inventories is equal to its mean ΔS.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“In related work,Yatchew and No (2001) using more detailed Canadian data arrive at a long-run gasoline demand elasticity estimate of À0.9, very close to Hausman and Newey's original estimate.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Yatchew and No (2001) source
- Not matchedcites Hausman and Newey
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our impact sign restrictions ensure that this elasticity is weakly negative on impact.”
§ THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL > 5.2. The Short-Run Price Elasticity of Oil Demand in Use
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Arbitrage between the spot and futures markets for crude oil holds.
“under the maintained assumption of arbitrage between spot and futures markets”
“there is an arbitrage condition linking the oil futures market and the spot market for crude oil.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The oil refining industry satisfies assumptions such that the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand is about as high as the short-run price elasticity of oil demand.
“under reasonable assumptions about the oil refining industry the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand is about as high as the short-run price elasticity of oil demand.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The impact elasticity of oil demand in use is weakly negative on average over the sample.
“A natural additional identifying assumption is that the impact elasticity of oil demand in use, Use t , must be weakly negative on average over the sample.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The impact price elasticity of oil demand is lower in magnitude than the corresponding long-run price elasticity of oil demand.
“It is reasonable to presume that the impact price elasticity of oil demand is lower in magnitude than the corresponding long-run price elasticity of oil demand”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Under the standard assumption of arbitrage between the futures and spot markets for oil, the absence of speculation in the spot market rules out speculation in oil futures markets.
“under the standard assumption of arbitrage between the futures and spot markets for oil maintained by proponents of the financial speculation hypothesis”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In the model, OPEC holding back oil production in anticipation of rising oil prices is observationally equivalent to a negative flow supply shock.
“In our model, OPEC holding back oil production in anticipation of rising oil prices would be observationally equivalent to a negative flow supply shock.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The price elasticity of oil supply is near zero in the short run.
“While there is little doubt that the price elasticity of oil supply is near zero in the short run”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The speculative demand shock is a composite of expectations shocks related to shifts in uncertainty and to the anticipation of rising oil demand and/or falling oil supplies.
“Given that this shock is a composite of expectations shocks related to shifts in uncertainty and to the anticipation of rising oil demand and/or falling oil supplies, it is impossible to determine the sign of these responses ex ante beyond the impact period.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Standard structural VAR models of the market for crude oil implicitly equate oil production with oil consumption and ignore the role of oil inventories.
“Standard structural VAR models of the market for crude oil implicitly equate oil production with oil consumption and ignore the role of oil inventories.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Typical estimates of the oil demand elasticity in the literature have been based on models that equate the percent change in quantity with the percent change in the production of crude oil, ignoring the existence of oil inventories.
“Second, typical estimates of the oil demand elasticity in the literature have been based on models that equate the percent change in quantity with the percent change in the production of crude oil, ignoring the existence of oil inventories.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The structural shocks in the model are mutually uncorrelated.
“Our analysis is based on the premise that these shocks are mutually uncorrelated, but allows multiple shocks to occur at the same time.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The real price of oil is covariance stationary for the historical decompositions.
“historical decompositions for the real price of oil rely on the assumption of covariance stationarity and would not be valid in the presence of unit roots.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Oil below ground (reserves) is inaccessible in the short run and not available for consumption smoothing.
“Unlike above-ground oil inventories that can be drawn down at short notice, oil below the ground (also known as reserves) is inaccessible in the short run and not available for consumption smoothing.”
The paper relies on this without support.
No reliable time series data exist on the quantity of oil below the ground.
“We do not utilize data for reserves because no reliable time series data exist on the quantity of oil below the ground and because reserves data are not required for our identification.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In practice, it will often take years for significant production increases.
“In practice, it will often take years for significant production increases.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Prior to the shock, the change in crude oil inventories is equal to its mean ΔS.
“prior to the shock, the change in crude oil inventories is equal to its mean ΔS; which is observable.”
Citations
Cites
Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market
Kilian, L. (2009) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.99.3.1053 · Cited by 4,708
Self-citationWhat are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure
Uhlig, H. (2005) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.05.007 · Cited by 2,307
THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE U.S. STOCK MARKET*
Kilian, L., & Park, C. (2009) · International Economic Review · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2354.2009.00568.x · Cited by 1,839
Self-citationThe Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks
Kilian, L. (2008) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.46.4.871 · Cited by 1,299
Self-citationUnderstanding Crude Oil Prices
Hamilton, J. D. (2008) · The Energy Journal · doi:10.3386/w14492 · Cited by 1,271
Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08
Hamilton, J. D. (2009) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.1353/eca.0.0047 · Cited by 1,102
Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08
Hamilton, J. (2009) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w15002 · Cited by 1,007
Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference
Rubio-Ramı́rez, J. F., Waggoner, D. F., & Zha, T. A. (2009) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1111/j.1467-937x.2009.00578.x · Cited by 930
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power
Harbert, E. N., & Yergin, D. (1991) · The New England Quarterly · doi:10.2307/366363 · Cited by 921
Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?
Kilian, L. (2008) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest.90.2.216 · Cited by 902
Self-citation
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Baumeister, C. J. S., & Hamilton, J. D. (2019) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20151569 · Cited by 920
Financialization of commodity markets
Cheng, I.-H., & Xiong, W. (2014) · Annual Review of Financial Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-financial-110613-034432 · Cited by 810
A model of financialization of commodities
BASAK, S., & PAVLOVA, A. (2016) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.12408 · Cited by 595
Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages
Büyükşahin, B., & Robe, M. A. (2013) · Journal of International Money and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.08.004 · Cited by 618
Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us
Baumeister, C. J. S., & Kilian, L. (2016) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.30.1.139 · Cited by 558
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Kilian, L., & Murphy, D. P.
- Affiliations
- University of Michigan (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kilian, Lutz
- Venue
- Journal of Applied Econometrics
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-04-10
- Volume
- 29
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 454-478
- ISSN
- 0883-7252 (ISSN-L)
- 1099-1255
- OpenAlex
- W2113983529
- Semantic Scholar
- 858b375e99bb75d9a6716db6a51f2ca2a0c84ddb
- Cited by
- 1,472
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 130 · 2025: 122 · 2024: 110 · 2023: 110 · 2022: 110 · 2021: 132 · 2020: 113 · 2019: 89 · 2018: 99 · 2017: 102 · 2016: 88 · 2015: 69 · 2014: 70 · 2013: 64
- FWCI
- 205.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Applied Econometrics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
- Deep Blue (University of Michigan) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
- Keywords
- crude oil market, oil inventories, speculative trading, oil price shocks, oil demand elasticity, oil supply shocks, oil consumption, oil market regulation
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-11, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-11 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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