Climate variability and migration in the Philippines
Open accessAbstract
This study investigates the effects of climatic variations and extremes captured by variability in temperature, precipitation, and incidents of typhoons on aggregate inter-provincial migration within the Philippines using panel data. Our results indicate that a rise in temperature and to some extent increased typhoon activity increase outmigration, while precipitation does not have a consistent, significant effect. We also find that temperature and typhoons have significant negative effects on rice yields, a proxy for agricultural productivity, and generate more outmigration from provinces that are more agriculturally dependent and have a larger share of rural population. Finally, migration decisions of males, younger individuals, and those with higher levels of education are more sensitive to rising temperature and typhoons. We conclude that temperature increase and to some extent typhoon activities promote migration, potentially through their negative effect on crop yields. The migration responses of males, more educated, and younger individuals are more sensitive to these climatic impacts.
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Similar evidence of environmental factors driving migration is found in Mexico and the Philippines.
“Similar evidence is found in other contexts, such as Mexico (see Jessoe, Manning, and Taylor, 2018 [49]; Nawrotzki, Riosmena, and Hunter, 2013 [50]), and the Philippines (see Bohra-Mishra et al. 2017 [51]).”
From A Systematic Review of International and Internal Climate-Induced Migration in Africa (2023) · cites this paper as Bohra-Mishra et al. 2017 [51]
A significant share of empirical evidence on environmental migration is derived from aggregated levels of analysis, bearing the danger of ecological fallacy.
“Micro-level studies are important given that a significant share of the empirical evidence gathered so far is derived from aggregated levels of analysis, i.e., the country or provincial level (Bohra-Mishra et al., 2017; Chen & Mueller, 2019; Feng et al., 2010; Hoffmann et al., 2020; Missirian & Schlenker, 2017; Thiede et al., 2016), which bears the danger of ecological fallacy”
From Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Bohra-Mishra et al., 2017
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- Authors
- Bohra-Mishra, P., Oppenheimer, M., Cai, R., Feng, S., & Licker, R.
- Affiliations
- Princeton University (US)
- Environmental Defense Fund (US)
- Jinan University (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Bohra-Mishra, Pratikshya
- Oppenheimer, Michael
- Cai, Ruohong
- Feng, Shuaizhang
- Licker, Rachel
- Venue
- Population and Environment
- Published
- 2016-10-08
- Volume
- 38
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 286-308
- ISSN
- 0199-0039 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-7810
- PMC
- PMC5313594
- OpenAlex
- W2528355665
- Cited by
- 137
- References
- 55
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 2
- FWCI
- 15.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Population and Environment (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Keywords
- climate variability, climate-induced migration, interprovincial migration, emigration, temperature, precipitation, typhoons, rice yield, agricultural productivity, rural population, agricultural dependence, Philippines
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