Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration
Open accessAbstract
Climate change is expected to cause mass human migration, including immigration across international borders. This study quantitatively examines the linkages among variations in climate, agricultural yields, and people's migration responses by using an instrumental variables approach. Our method allows us to identify the relationship between crop yields and migration without explicitly controlling for all other confounding factors. Using state-level data from Mexico, we find a significant effect of climate-driven changes in crop yields on the rate of emigration to the United States. The estimated semielasticity of emigration with respect to crop yields is approximately −0.2, i.e., a 10% reduction in crop yields would lead an additional 2% of the population to emigrate. We then use the estimated semielasticity to explore the potential magnitude of future emigration. Depending on the warming scenarios used and adaptation levels assumed, with other factors held constant, by approximately the year 2080, climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans (or 2% to 10% of the current population aged 15–65 y) to emigrate as a result of declines in agricultural productivity alone. Although the results cannot be mechanically extrapolated to other areas and time periods, our findings are significant from a global perspective given that many regions, especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming.
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A significant share of empirical evidence on environmental migration is derived from aggregated levels of analysis, bearing the danger of ecological fallacy.
“Micro-level studies are important given that a significant share of the empirical evidence gathered so far is derived from aggregated levels of analysis, i.e., the country or provincial level (Bohra-Mishra et al., 2017; Chen & Mueller, 2019; Feng et al., 2010; Hoffmann et al., 2020; Missirian & Schlenker, 2017; Thiede et al., 2016), which bears the danger of ecological fallacy”
From Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Feng et al., 2010
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“Agricultural yield is a direct driver of food security and is directly tied to both climate change and migration (Afolayan and Adelekan 1999, Feng et al 2010, Massey et al 2010, Mueller et al 2014, Cai et al 2016).”
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- Authors
- Feng, S., Krueger, A. B., & Oppenheimer, M.
- Affiliations
- Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (CN)
- United States Department of the Treasury (US)
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Krueger, Alan B.
- Oppenheimer, Michael
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2010-07-26
- Volume
- 107
- Issue
- 32
- Pages
- 14257-14262
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2922556
- OpenAlex
- W1967892660
- Cited by
- 635
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 25 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 51 · 2021: 113 · 2020: 59 · 2019: 35 · 2018: 30 · 2017: 28 · 2016: 41 · 2015: 37 · 2014: 28 · 2013: 25 · 2012: 24
- FWCI
- 71.26
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Russell Sage Foundation
- Sage Foundation
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24HD047879)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Keywords
- climate change, crop yield, agricultural productivity, emigration, cross-border migration, Mexico–United States migration, climate-induced migration, climate warming scenarios, climate change adaptation
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Agriculture, Emigration and Immigration, Forecasting, Humans, Mexico, United States, Causality, Crops, Agricultural, Young Adult, Climate Change
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