The Growth, Scope, and Spatial Distribution of People With Felony Records in the United States, 1948–2010
Open accessAbstract
The steep rise in U.S. criminal punishment in recent decades has spurred scholarship on the collateral consequences of imprisonment for individuals, families, and communities. Several excellent studies have estimated the number of people who have been incarcerated and the collateral consequences they face, but far less is known about the size and scope of the total U.S. population with felony convictions beyond prison walls, including those who serve their sentences on probation or in jail. This article develops state-level estimates based on demographic life tables and extends previous national estimates of the number of people with felony convictions to 2010. We estimate that 3 % of the total U.S. adult population and 15 % of the African American adult male population has ever been to prison; people with felony convictions account for 8 % of all adults and 33 % of the African American adult male population. We discuss the far-reaching consequences of the spatial concentration and immense growth of these groups since 1980.
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More than 19 million people in the US have a felony conviction.
“The results are staggering; more than nineteen million people in the United States carry the burden of a felony conviction.”
From The Rise of the Carceral State: Foundations and Contours of a Rapidly Changing Criminal Legal System (2025) · cites this paper as Shannon et al. 2017
The Results (National-Level Estimates) estimate a total of 19 million people with felony convictions in 2010. The citing sentence says more than 19 million and presents the figure without its 2010 date; the source does not establish either the higher threshold or a current count. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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“adult population has a felony conviction (Shannon et al., 2017).”
BackgroundMental health outcomes in formerly incarcerated Black men: A systematic mixed studies review.
Addison, H. A., Richmond, T., Lewis, L., & Jacoby, S. F. (2022) · Journal of Advanced Nursing · doi:10.1111/jan.15235 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
DeMarco, L. M., Dwyer, R. E., & Haynie, D. (2021) · Criminology (Beverly Hills) · doi:10.1111/1745-9125.12286 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
“By 2010, approximately 3 percent of the U.S. population experienced incarceration, 30 percent of young adults experienced arrest, and an estimated 7 − 8 percent of the population had a felony record (Brame et al., 2012; Kaebel & Glaze, 2016; Shannon et al., 2017).”
Locking up my generation: Cohort differences in prison spells over the life course
Shen, Y., Bushway, S. D., Sorensen, L. C., & Smith, H. L. (2020) · Criminology · doi:10.1111/1745-9125.12256 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Redeeming desistance: From individual journeys to a social movement
Maruna, S. (2025) · Criminology (Beverly Hills) · doi:10.1111/1745-9125.12393 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“After all, there are an estimated 70 million people in the United States alone who have a criminal record (Shannon et al., 2017) and countless millions more who have been deeply impacted by a family member’s incarceration (Comfort, 2019; Condry & Minson, 2021; McCorkel, 2016).”
Probation officer discretion in monitoring and violating supervision conditions
Ruhland, E. L., & Scheibler, E. (2021) · Probation Journal · doi:10.1177/02645505211041578 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Criminal record stigma, race, and neighborhood inequality
DeMarco, L. M. (2023) · Criminology · doi:10.1111/1745-9125.12347 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Digitizing and Disclosing Personal Data: The Proliferation of State Criminal Records on the Internet
Lageson, S. E., Webster, E., & Sandoval, J. R. (2020) · Law & Social Inquiry · doi:10.1017/lsi.2020.37 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Entrepreneurship as a Response to Labor Market Discrimination for Formerly Incarcerated People
Hwang, K. J., & Phillips, D. J. (2024) · American Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1086/729476 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Rodriguez, M., Barthelemy, R. S., & McCormick, M. (2022) · Physical Review Physics Education Research · doi:10.1103/physrevphyseducres.18.013101 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Policing Is a Public Health Issue: The Important Role of Health Educators
Fleming, P., Lopez, W., Spolum, M. M., Anderson, R., Reyes, A., & Schulz, A. (2021) · Health Education & Behavior · doi:10.1177/10901981211001010 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Felon history and change in U.S. employment rates
Larson, R., Shannon, S., Sojourner, A., & Uggen, C. (2021) · Social Science Research · doi:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2021.102649 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“Shannon et al. (2017) provide two state-level estimates: an overall felony history percentage and a Black felony history percentage.”
InfluentialSelf-citationIncarceration exposure and epigenetic aging in neighborhood context.
Berg, M. T., Rogers, E. M., Riley, K., Lei, M.-K., & Simons, R. L. (2022) · Social Science & Medicine (1967) · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.115273 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
McElhattan, D. (2021) · Punishment & Society · doi:10.1177/1462474521989502 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Warner, C., Kaiser, J., & Houle, J. N. (2020) · RSF The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences · doi:10.7758/rsf.2020.6.1.06 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
“According to recent estimates, between seventy and one hundred million Americans have a criminal record (Vallas and Dietrich 2014), 7.3 million adults have been incarcerated (Shannon et al. 2017), and more than six hundred thousand are released from prison every year (Carson 2018).”
InfluentialVuolo, M., Schneider, L. E., & LaPlant, E. G. (2022) · American Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1086/722293 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“This difference is also meaningful at the population level, given that Black people are more likely to have a criminal record (Shannon et al. 2017) and that White people have disproportionately greater geographic access to felon-friendly employers (Rucks-Ahidiana et al.”
BackgroundInfluentialHarris, A., & Smith, T. (2022) · RSF · doi:10.7758/rsf.2022.8.2.02 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“…some form of criminal legal control (6.6 million), and those estimated to have a felony conviction (3 percent), we can safely assume that a large segment of the U.S. population has been charged with monetary sanctions at some point in their lifetime (Kaeble and Cowhig 2018; Shannon et al. 2017).”
BackgroundInfluentialEnhancing the Carceral State: Criminal/ized History Questions in College Admissions
Castro, E. L., & Magana, S. (2020) · Journal of College Student Development · doi:10.1353/csd.2020.0077 · Cited by 16
“For all men, the lifetime risk of imprison-ment is 1 in 9; for white men, it is 1 in 17, for indicate that approximately 23% of Black adults overall and 33% of Black adult males have felony records, compared with 8% of adults and 13% of adult males in the overall population (Shannon et al., 2017).”
BackgroundSimes, J. T., & Tichenor, E. (2022) · Social Service Review · doi:10.1086/719901 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“Practitioners across the spectrum of services including housing, employment, substance use, and reentry have direct connection to the more than 70 million people with felony records (Shannon et al. 2017).”
BackgroundBoch, S. J., & Ford, J. L. (2021) · Nursing Research · doi:10.1097/nnr.0000000000000522 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Homelessness among Formerly Incarcerated Men: Patterns and Predictors
Remster, B. (2021) · The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science · doi:10.1177/0002716221993447 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
“I the United States, approximately 626,000 individuals exit prison annually, and more than five million Americans have an incarceration history (Carson 2018; Shannon et al. 2017).”
BackgroundBinnall, J. M. (2018) · Psychology, Crime and Law · doi:10.1080/1068316x.2018.1528359 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
“Research estimates that 3 percent of adults have been to prison, and 8 percent of adults, 19 million American citizens, have been convicted of a felony (Shannon et al., 2017).”
BackgroundCox, R. S., & Cunningham, J. P. (2017) · Journal of policy analysis and management · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3035640 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Conviction, Incarceration, and Recidivism: Understanding the Revolving Door
Humphries, J., Ouss, A., Stavreva, K., Stevenson, M., & van Dijk, W. (2024) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.3386/w32894 · Cited by 13
Trivedi, C., & Ray, S. M. (2024) · New Horizons in adult education & Human resource development · doi:10.1177/19394225231223388 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
“Today, 19.6 million people live with a felony record and almost all of them live in dire poverty with one-third of this population being Black (Miller, 2021; Shannon et al., 2017).”
BackgroundInfluentialFatherhood, Behavioral Health, and Criminal Legal System Contact over the Life Course
McKay, T. E., & Tadros, E. (2022) · Journal of Health and Social Behavior · doi:10.1177/00221465221139246 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
The Proliferation of Criminal Background Check Laws in the United States
McElhattan, D. (2022) · American Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1086/718262 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Incarceration, Families, and Communities: Recent Developments and Enduring Challenges
Wakefield, S. (2022) · Crime and Justice · doi:10.1086/721741 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
“Clever scholars have pooled data sources to estimate the number of people who have been incarcerated (Pettit and Western 2004;Muller andWildeman 2016), have been convicted of a felony (Shannon et al. 2017), or have had a parent who experienced incarceration (Sykes and Pettit 2015).”
BackgroundSelf-citationThe waiting game: Anticipatory stress and its proliferation during jail incarceration
Turney, K., Sugie, N. F., Marín, E., & Kaiser, D. E. (2024) · Criminology (Beverly Hills) · doi:10.1111/1745-9125.12388 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
“In fact, we believe that the majority-Latino/a sample is a strength in a field dominated primarily by White–Black disparities (partly due to empirical challenges; see Shannon et al., 2017) despite highly disproportionate criminal legal contact among Latino/a individuals.”
Criminal Justice Involvement, Self‐Employment, and Barriers in Recent Public Policy
Finlay, K., Mueller-Smith, M., & Street, B. (2022) · Journal of policy analysis and management · doi:10.1002/pam.22438 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
“1 Recent estimates suggest that 8% of all adult men have a felony conviction and 3% have been to prison, which is most pronounced within minority communities (Shannon et al. 2017).”
Dual Debtors: Child Support and Criminal Legal Financial Obligations
Horowitz, V. L., Spencer-Suarez, K., Larson, R., Stewart, R., Edwards, F., Obara, E. E., & Uggen, C. (2022) · Social Service Review · doi:10.1086/720016 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Self-citationScripting the Conviction: Power and Resistance in the Management of Criminal Stigma
Burch, M. (2021) · American Anthropologist · doi:10.1111/aman.13613 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Martin, K. D., & Fowle, M. Z. (2020) · Sociological perspectives · doi:10.1177/0731121420970599 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Smoking and Unemployment: A Photo Elicitation Project
Michalek, A. K., Wong, S. L., Brown-Johnson, C., & Prochaska, J. (2020) · Tobacco Use Insights · doi:10.1177/1179173x20921446 · Cited by 12
Institutional Castling: Military Enlistment and Mass Incarceration in the United States
Sykes, B. L., & Bailey, A. K. (2020) · RSF The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences · doi:10.7758/rsf.2020.6.1.02 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Corda, A., Rovira, M., & Henley, A. (2023) · Criminology & Criminal Justice · doi:10.1177/17488958231161437 · Cited by 11
Prisons and Health in the Age of Mass Incarceration
Schnittker, J., Massoglia, M., & Uggen, C. (2022) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190603823.001.0001 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Economic Costs of Pretrial Detention
Dobbie, W., & Yang, C. S. (2022) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.1353/eca.2021.0005 · Cited by 11
Criminal Justice Contact, Residential Independence, and Returns to the Parental Home
Warner, C., & Remster, B. (2021) · Journal of Marriage and the Family · doi:10.1111/jomf.12753 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Adams, M., Klinsky, S., & Chhetri, N. (2019) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12010220 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
“The stigma of the felony label has lifelong consequences [63,74].”
BackgroundInfluentialKirk, D. (2019) · RSF · doi:10.7758/rsf.2019.5.1.11 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
“In total, roughly five million formerly imprisoned individuals live in U.S. neighborhoods at this moment (Shannon et al. 2017).”
Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation
Agan, A. Y., Garin, A., Koustas, D. K., Mas, A., & Yang, C. S. (2024) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.3386/w32394 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Testa, A., Mungia, R., Lee, J., Jackson, D. B., Fahmy, C., Neumann, A. C., & Samper-Ternent, R. (2023) · The Journal of the American Dental Association (1939) · doi:10.1016/j.adaj.2023.10.011 · Cited by 10
The Disproportionate Mental Health Burden Among Incarcerated Transgender and Gender Diverse People
Rogers, E. M., Krajewski, A. T., & Shuster, S. M. (2022) · Journal of correctional health care · doi:10.1089/jchc.21.10.0109 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
“More than one million individuals are currently held in state or federal prisons in the United States (Carson, 2021), with millions more formerly imprisoned (Shannon et al. , 2017).”
Beyond the Penal Code: The Legal Capacity of Monetary Sanctions in the Corpus of California Law
Verma, A., & Sykes, B. L. (2022) · RSF · doi:10.7758/rsf.2022.8.1.02 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
“Third, there are racial disparities in felony arrests and convictions for possession of a controlled substance (Mooney et al. 2018; Shannon et al. 2017).”
BackgroundLegal Civic Orders and Equitable Lived Citizenships
Smith, R. M. (2021) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s000305542100068x · Cited by 10 · see citing works
“38 Though not explicitly provided for in the U.S. Code, dual citizenship is recognized in, e.g., Title 26, Subtitle F, Chapter 79, §7701(a)50 (B). population, or over 26 million people (Shannon et al. 2017).”
BackgroundMcCauley, E. J. (2021) · Social Science & Medicine (1967) · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.113718 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Support seeking, system avoidance, and citizenship: Social safety net usage after incarceration
Bryan, B. (2023) · Criminology (Beverly Hills) · doi:10.1111/1745-9125.12351 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“…individuals—who now represent more than 2 percent of the total adult U.S. population and almost 7 percent of the adult African American population (Shannon et al., 2017)—face severe financial hardship in the years, and for some, decades, after their release (Bryan, 2019; Harding et al., 2014;…”
McKay, T. E. (2022) · Journal of Interpersonal Violence · doi:10.1177/08862605221106141 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Schnittker, J., Larimore, S., & Lee, H. (2020) · Social Science & Medicine (1967) · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113288 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationPublic perceptions of felon-juror exclusion: An exploratory study
Binnall, J. M., & Petersen, N. (2020) · Criminology & Criminal Justice · doi:10.1177/1748895819898518 · Cited by 9
Is it disqualifying? Practitioner responses to criminal offenses in hiring decisions
Kuhn, K. M. (2019) · Equality, Diversity and Inclusion: An International Journal · doi:10.1108/edi-10-2018-0182 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
The contingent effect of incarceration on state health outcomes
Uggen, C., Schnittker, J., Shannon, S. K. S., & Massoglia, M. (2012) · SSM: Population Health · doi:10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101322 · Cited by 9
Self-citationCriminal Record Stigma in the Labor Market for College Graduates: A Mixed Methods Study
Cerda-Jara, M., & Harding, D. J. (2024) · Sociological Science · doi:10.15195/v11.a2 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“Between 70 million and 100 million Americans have a criminal record (almost one-third of the country’s population), and eight percent of all adults have a felony record (Vallas and Dietrich 2014; Shannon et al. 2017).”
BackgroundFrom victimhood to victimcould: Hypothetical injury and the ‘criminalization’ of Donald Trump
Higgins, K. (2025) · European Journal of Cultural Studies · doi:10.1177/13675494251345268 · Cited by 8
“The convictions have added Trump to the ranks of the approximately 19 million US citizens with prior felony convictions (Prison Policy Initiative, 2020), among whom African American men are significantly overrepresented (see Shannon et al., 2017).”
Racial Equity in Eligibility for a Clean Slate under Automatic Criminal Record Relief LawsPreprint
Mooney, A. C., Skog, A., & Lerman, A. (2022) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4137869 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“The Plurality of Perspectives on Monetary Sanctions”: An Introductory Essay
Martin, K. D. (2020) · Sociological Perspectives · doi:10.1177/0731121420970676 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
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Handbook on the Consequences of Sentencing and Punishment Decisions
Huebner, B. M., & Frost, N. A. (2018) · doi:10.4324/9780429466380 · Cited by 8
“An additional 5 million people previously served time in prison and 20 million people in the U.S. have a felony conviction (Shannon et al., 2017; see also Muller & Wildeman, 2016).”
BackgroundBerg, M. T., Riley, K., Lei, M.-K., & Simons, R. L. (2024) · Journal of Aging and Health · doi:10.1177/08982643241257065 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“In fact, recent estimates suggest that more than two million individuals in the United States are incarcerated and nearly fi ve million were formerly in prison or on parole (Shannon et al., 2017).”
A raceless legal psychology in a system marked by race
Gonzales, R. M., & Plaut, V. C. (2024) · Journal of Social Issues · doi:10.1111/josi.12605 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Criminal Justice Reform and Inequality
Wakefield, S. (2022) · American Journal of Criminal Justice · doi:10.1007/s12103-022-09717-1 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“…to police surveillance and violence (Edwards et al., 2021; Geller & Fagan, 2019) and arrest (Brame et al., 2014) to misdemeanor (Kohler-Hausmann, 2013) and felony conviction (Shannon et al., 2017) and incarceration (Pettit & Western, 2004), stark disparities are entrenched and well-documented.”
BackgroundSelf-citationCumulative Risks of Multiple Criminal Justice Outcomes in New York City
Hepburn, P., Kohler‐Hausmann, I., & Medina, A. Z. (2019) · Demography · doi:10.1007/s13524-019-00781-7 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Calculating the posterior odds from a single-match DNA database search
Wixted, J., Christenfeld, N., & Rouder, J. N. (2019) · Law, Probability and Risk · doi:10.1093/lpr/mgz001 · Cited by 7
“For example, Shannon et al. (2017) estimated the size of the U.S. criminal population at 19.8 million (6% of the current U.S. population) as of 2010 based on the number of people who have ever been convicted of a felony, whether or not they served time in prison.”
BackgroundInfluentialAddison, H., Richmond, T. S., Ghose, T., & Jacoby, S. F. (2025) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.118244 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
- Authors
- Shannon, S. K. S., Uggen, C., Schnittker, J., Thompson, M., Wakefield, S., & Massoglia, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Georgia (US)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Portland State University (US)
- Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Corresponding author
- Shannon, Sarah K. S.
- Venue
- Demography
- Publisher
- Duke University Press
- Published
- 2017-09-11
- Volume
- 54
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 1795-1818
- ISSN
- 0070-3370 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-7790
- PMC
- PMC5996985
- OpenAlex
- W2755233168
- Cited by
- 356
- References
- 87
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 44 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 32 · 2022: 46 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 75 · 2019: 35 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 4
- FWCI
- 88.95
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Demography (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- PDXScholar (Portland State University) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P2CHD047873, P2CHD041023)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
- Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Keywords
- felony conviction, prison population, incarceration rates, state-level estimates, African American men, racial disparities in incarceration, criminal justice policy
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Black or African American, Crime, Demography, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Prisoners, Prisons, Socioeconomic Factors, United States, Life Tables, Databases, Factual, Geographic Information Systems, Racial Groups, Young Adult, Criminals, Spatial Analysis
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