Cited by 894Economic Growth and ProductivityClimate Change Policy and EconomicsEnergy, Environment, Economic Growth

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Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Dellink, Rob, Chateau, Jean, Lanzi, Elisa, Magné, Bertrand·2017·Global Environmental Change

DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004

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“We use the recently developed Socioeconomic Scenarios (SSPs6) (Riahi et al., 2017), which provide projections of GDP and population for 169 countries (Crespo Cuaresma, 2017; Dellink et al., 2017; Samir andLutz, 2017).”
Method
Residential electricity demand projections for Italy: A spatial downscaling approach
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Wang, T., & Sun, F. (2023) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.8174 · Cited by 9
“Consistent with the SSP database (Riahi et al., 2017) and the SSP narratives, national GDP (Dellink et al., 2017) were downscaled into 1-km grids first using the LitPop approach (Eberenz et al., 2020; Wang & Sun, 2022; Zhao et al., 2017).”
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“The SSP1, SSP2, SSP3 scenarios are initially designed to sketch out the assumption of being sustainable, middle-of-the-road, and regional rivalry, respectively, in order to represent low, medium, and high socio-economic challenges, respectively (Dellink et al 2017).”
Background
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Ghio, D., Goujon, A., Natale, F., Alfredo, A., & Petroliagkis, T. (2023) · Population and environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-023-00439-y · Cited by 9
“Previous studies have notably used the SSPs to develop projections including population by education levels (KC & Lutz, 2017), urbanisation patterns (Jiang & O’Neill, 2017), and economic indicators, such as economic growth (Dellink et al., 2017) and income inequality (Rao et al., 2019).”
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“…on the factors identified by Seum et al. [50], defining their data sources as follows: KC and Lutz [51] for population figures, Rob Dellink et al. [52] for economic development indicators, the European Commission [53] and OECD/ITF [54] for mobility statistics, TomTom [55] for the congestion…”
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“Future national demographic data and GDP at purchasing power parity are derived using data at 5‐year intervals from the IIASA‐WiC POP model (Samir & Lutz, 2017) and the OECD Env‐Growth model (Dellink et al., 2017) from the SSP Database, and averaged over a 75‐year period from 2015 to 2100.”
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“The GDP data is based on combining IMF-WEO historical data and the SSP projections from [41].”
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“…income High international trade in food and energy and wellconnected, globalised markets Significant exportation of coal Sources (Bauer et al. 2017; Dellink et al. 2017; Kok et al. 2018; Leimbach et al. 2017; O’Neill et al. 2017; Popp et al. 2017; Riahi et al. 2017; Samir and Lutz, 2017; Detlef…”
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“…ﬁ ve-year country-level GDP per capita and population projections for the 2020 – 2099 period under each SSP scenario from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) model 59 – 61 and from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Env-Growth model.”
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“A family of SSP scenarios embracing a variety of possible future socioeconomic features has been under discussion for some time [13, 14], with fve SSPs being eventually determined, namely, SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5.”
Background
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“…global-scale SSPs are now widely used by the community, outlining potential trends in socioeconomic development throughout the 21st century through qualitative narratives (O ’ Neill et al., 2017) and quantitative projections (e.g., Dellink et al., 2017; Jiang & O ’ Neill, 2017; Riahi et al., 2017).”
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“SSPs describe potential trends in the evolution of social and natural systems at both the global and regional levels throughout the 21st century (O’Neill et al., 2014, 2017; Dellink et al., 2017; Riahi et al., 2017).”
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“The reason of this result most probably is because the there are other important factors that influence the GDP. Dellink et al. (2017) also have come to some conclusion that countries such as Tanzania have more scope to boost economic growth by improving education levels than e.g. the United States…”
BackgroundInfluential
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“The quantification in terms of population and GDP pathways for the 5 SSPs are described in KC and Lutz (2017) and Dellink et al. (2017), respectively. ferent pathways for climate, with changes in the global mean temperature as one of the indicators.22 The system will also be influenced by…”
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“Dellink et al. (2017) forecasted the GDP and per capita income of 184 countries.”
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Background
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“…of economic growth namely population, human capital, employment, total factor productivity, physical capital and energy and fossil fuel resources (Dellink et al., 2017), technological progress, and human and physical capital formation (Leimbach et al., 2017), educational attainment and age…”
Global average socio-economic farm size may triple by 2100
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“For instance, when GDP grows faster and population grows slower (SSP1), the expansion of SFS could be much more rapid (about 620%, 7.8%yr − 1 ), whereas when GDP grows more slowly and population grows faster (SSP3), the expansion of SFS could slow down (about 260%, 3.3%yr − 1 ).”
Influential
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“GCAM adopts the demographic and economic assumptions from Kc and Lutz (2017) and Dellink et al. (2017), and the technology and policy assumptions developed from the SSP narratives (O’Neill et al., 2017) to implement SSPs (Table S2 in Supporting Information S1).”
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Background
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BackgroundMethodResult
Climate-driven elevational range shift and habitat loss of Ageratina adenophora in Nepal: Predicting invasion using ensemble modeling
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Authors: Dellink, R., Chateau, J., Lanzi, E., & Magné, B.
Affiliations: Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques (FR)
Corresponding author: Dellink, Rob
ORCID: Dellink, Rob
Lanzi, Elisa
Venue: Global Environmental Change
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2017-01
Volume: 42
Pages: 200-214
ISSN: 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004
OpenAlex: W793980422
Cited by: 893
References: 36
Citations by year: 2026: 50 · 2025: 92 · 2024: 121 · 2023: 106 · 2022: 117 · 2021: 129 · 2020: 69 · 2019: 85 · 2018: 56 · 2017: 37
FWCI: 93.18
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
Keywords: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, GDP per capita, convergence, total factor productivity, population growth, physical capital, employment, human capital, fossil fuel resources, energy resources, economic crisis

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