Cited by 894Economic Growth and ProductivityClimate Change Policy and EconomicsEnergy, Environment, Economic Growth

The DOI matches its Crossref record, with a small difference in title or year; 35 of the 36 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Dellink, Rob, Chateau, Jean, Lanzi, Elisa, Magné, Bertrand·2017·Global Environmental Change

DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004

Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004

Cites

35 of 35 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

We couldn’t retrieve this paper’s full text, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

A contribution to the theory of economic growth
Solow, R. M. (1956) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/1884513 · Cited by 24,483
A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth
Mankiw, N. G., Römer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/2118477 · Cited by 15,282
Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?
Hall, R. E., & Jones, C. I. (1999) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355399555954 · Cited by 8,336
World Energy Outlook
Thring, M. W. (1977) · Electronics and Power · doi:10.1049/ep.1977.0180 · Cited by 7,338
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., et al. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08823 · Cited by 6,467
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Gurney, J. (1985) · Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · doi:10.2307/3324639 · Cited by 6,313
Econometric policy evaluation: A critique
Lucas, R. E. (1976) · Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy · doi:10.1016/s0167-2231(76)80003-6 · Cited by 6,110
A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T. R., Mathur, R., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2 · Cited by 2,716
Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?
Edwards, S. (1997) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/1468-0297.00293 · Cited by 2,383
Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820–1992
Bourguignon, F., & Morrisson, C. (2002) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/00028280260344443 · Cited by 1,477

Show all 36 references

Sorted by citations

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 · Cited by 6,607
“…end, we present new SSP narratives (O ’ Neill et al., 2016a) and associated quantitative descriptions for key scenario drivers, such as population (KC and Lutz, 2016), economic growth (Crespo Cuaresma, 2016; Dellink et al., 2016; Leimbach et al., 2016), and urbanization (Jiang and O ’ Neill, 2016).”
InfluentialSelf-citation
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016 · Cited by 5,241
“, 2015) as well as quantitative descriptions for key elements including population (KC and Lutz, 2014), economic growth (Dellink et al., 2015), and urbanization (Jiang and O’Neill, 2015).”
The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century
O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004 · Cited by 3,359
“Other papers in this special issue describe the quantitative elements of the SSPs, including population and educational composition (KC and Lutz, 2014), urbanization (Jiang and O’Neill, 2014), and economic growth pathways (Crespo Cuaresma, 2014; Leimbach et al., 2014; Dellink et al., 2014).”
The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100
KC, S., & Lutz, W. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004 · Cited by 1,337
A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies
Grubler, A., Wilson, C., Bento, N., Boza-Kiss, B., Krey, V., McCollum, D. L., Rao, N. D., Riahi, K., Rogelj, J., De Stercke, S., et al. (2018) · Nature Energy · doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6 · Cited by 1,178
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Popp, A., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Stehfest, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Dietrich, J. P., Doelmann, J. C., Gusti, M., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002 · Cited by 1,070
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
(2019) · doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019 · Cited by 1,093
“(2007), where population and GDP trajectories are taken from the SSP scenario specifications (KC and Lutz, 2017; Dellink et al., 2015).”
BackgroundInfluential
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
Fricko, O., Havlik, P., Rogelj, J., Klimont, Z., Gusti, M., Johnson, N., Kolp, P., Strubegger, M., Valin, H., Amann, M., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004 · Cited by 1,075
“Gross Domestic Product (GDP) follows regional historical trends (Dellink et al., 2015).”
Background
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
van Vuuren, D. P., Stehfest, E., Gernaat, D., Doelman, J., van den Berg, M., Harmsen, M. J. H. M., de Boer, H. S., Bouwman, L., Daioglou, V., Edelenbosch, O. Y., et al. (2016) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.008 · Cited by 909
“Population (KC and Lutz, 2017) and GDP scenarios (Dellink et al., 2017) consistent with the SSP storylines were developed, and have been used here as input for the IMAGE Fig.”
Method
Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Jones, B., & O’Neill, B. C. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003 · Cited by 817
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Leimbach, M., Strefler, J., Baumstark, L., Bodirsky, B. L., Hilaire, J., Klein, D., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015 · Cited by 735
“Regional economic output is deduced from the SSP country-level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) by the OECD team (Dellink et al., 2017).”
Influential
Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely
Raftery, A. E., Zimmer, A., Frierson, D. M. W., Startz, R., & Liu, P. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3352 · Cited by 713
“Our predictive distribution of future world GDP per capita largely spans the range of scenarios used by the IPCC 20–22 , although there are large differences on a country-by-country basis.”
Influential
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
(2017) · doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017 · Cited by 685
“Future projections of national GDP are taken from the SSP database (Dellink et al., 2015, https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/ web-apps/ene/SspDb/).”
Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Gao, J., & O’Neill, B. C. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15788-7 · Cited by 709
Global Environment Outlook – GEO-6: Healthy Planet, Healthy People
McClain, S. N., McMullen, C., Abiodun, B. J., Armiento, G., Bailey, R., Balasubramanian, R., Barra, R., Bowen, K. J., Crump, J., Dankelman, I., et al. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108627146 · Cited by 748
Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change
van Ruijven, B. J., De Cian, E., & Sue Wing, I. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-10399-3 · Cited by 648
SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Masui, T., Takahashi, K., Herran, D. S., Dai, H., Hijioka, Y., & Kainuma, M. (2016) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.009 · Cited by 650
Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework
O’Neill, B. C., Carter, T. R., Ebi, K. L., Harrison, P. A., Kemp-Benedict, E. J., Kok, K. I., Kriegler, E., Preston, B. L., Riahi, K., Sillmann, J., et al. (2020) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0 · Cited by 666
A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda
Soergel, B., Kriegler, E., Weindl, I., Rauner, S., Dirnaichner, A., Ruhe, C., Hofmann, M., Bauer, N., Bertram, C., Bodirsky, B. L., et al. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01098-3 · Cited by 594
GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems
Calvin, K., Patel, P., Clarke, L., Asrar, G., Bond‐Lamberty, B., Cui, R. Y., Vittorio, A. D., Dorheim, K., Edmonds, J., Hartin, C. A., et al. (2019) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019 · Cited by 548
“12b) were developed by KC and Lutz (2017) and Dellink et al. (2017).”
Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100
Chen, Y., Guo, F., Wang, J., Cai, W., Wang, C., & Wang, K. (2020) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/s41597-020-0421-y · Cited by 539
The EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems
Rockström, J., Thilsted, S. H., Willett, W. C., Gordon, L. J., Herrero, M., Hicks, C. C., Mason-D’Croz, D., Rao, N., Springmann, M., Wright, E. C., et al. (2025) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(25)01201-2 · Cited by 621
Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming
Naumann, G., Cammalleri, C., Mentaschi, L., & Feyen, L. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01044-3 · Cited by 462
The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality
Calvin, K., Bond‐Lamberty, B., Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Eom, J., Hartin, C. A., Kim, S. H., Kyle, P. G., Link, R. P., Moss, R. H., et al. (2016) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010 · Cited by 454
Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits
Carleton, T., Jina, A., Delgado, M., Greenstone, M., Houser, T., Hsiang, S., Hultgren, A., Kopp, R. E., McCusker, K. E., Nath, I., et al. (2022) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjac020 · Cited by 18
Global iron and steel plant CO2 emissions and carbon-neutrality pathways
Lei, T., Wang, D., Yu, X., Ma, S., Zhao, W., Cui, C., Meng, J., Tao, S., & Guan, D. (2023) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06486-7 · Cited by 416
Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?
Moyer, J. D., & Hedden, S. (2020) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104749 · Cited by 351
A forecast on future raw material demand and recycling potential of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles
Maisel, F., Neef, C., Marscheider-Weidemann, F., & Nissen, N. F. (2023) · Resources, Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.106920 · Cited by 405
Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy consumption
Rode, A., Carleton, T. A., Delgado, M., Greenstone, M., Houser, T., Hsiang, S., Hultgren, A., Jina, A., Kopp, R. E., McCusker, K. E., et al. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03883-8 · Cited by 406
Estimating Global Impacts to Agriculture from Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation
Hultgren, A., Carleton, T. A., Delgado, M., Gergel, D. R., Greenstone, M., Houser, T., Hsiang, S., Jina, A., Kopp, R. E., Malevich, S. B., et al. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09085-w · Cited by 545
“Future projections of national incomes are derived from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) ENV-Growth model 63 and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) GDP model 64 , as part of the ‘socioeconomic conditions’ of the Shared Socioeconomic…”
Rethinking Global Food Demand for 2050
Falcon, W., Naylor, R., & Shankar, N. (2022) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/padr.12508 · Cited by 313
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Emmerling, J., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Hilaire, J., Eom, J., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Mouratiadou, I., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006 · Cited by 417
“For the SSP driver scenarios of population and economic growth, quantitative projections, that are developed in line with the SSP narratives, have been adopted by all models (Dellink et al., 2017; KC and Lutz, 2017; both in this issue).”
Urbanization: an increasing source of multiple pollutants to rivers in the 21st century
Strokal, M., Bai, Z., Franssen, W., Hofstra, N., Koelmans, A. A., Ludwig, F., Ma, L., van Puijenbroek, P. J. T. M., Spanier, J. E., Vermeulen, L. C., et al. (2021) · npj Urban Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s42949-021-00026-w · Cited by 374
Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model: Regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation
Doelman, J., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., Lassaletta, L., Gernaat, D., Hermans, K., Harmsen, M. J. H. M., Daioglou, V., Biemans, H., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.014 · Cited by 382
“The story-lines were used to derive demographic (KC and Lutz, 2017) and economic scenarios (Dellink et al., 2017)(see Table 1, Fig.”
Influential
Framing, Context, and Methods
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157896.003 · Cited by 429
Gridded population projections for the coastal zone under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Merkens, J.-L., Reimann, L., Hinkel, J., & Vafeidis, A. T. (2016) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.08.009 · Cited by 355
The Shared Socio-economic Pathways: Trajectories for human development and global environmental change
van Vuuren, D. P., Riahi, K., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Emmerling, J., Fujimori, S., KC, S., Kriegler, E., & O’Neill, B. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.009 · Cited by 330
Self-citation
Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030
Tang, R., Zhao, J. C., Liu, Y., Huang, X., Zhang, Y., Zhou, D., Ding, A., Nielsen, C., & Wang, H. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28672-3 · Cited by 320
Income projections for climate change research: A framework based on human capital dynamics
Cuaresma, J. C. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.012 · Cited by 300
Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots
Byers, E., Gidden, M., Leclère, D., Balkovic, J., Burek, P., Ebi, K., Greve, P., Grey, D., Havlik, P., Hillers, A., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf45 · Cited by 295
“New, socioeconomic projections with consistent 21st Century narratives are available for the SSPs for population [38], urbanization [39] and gross domestic product [40].”
Background
Impacts of urban expansion on ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China: A scenario analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Zhang, D., Huang, Q., He, C., & Wu, J. (2017) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.06.003 · Cited by 294
“For example, Jiang and O’Neill (2017) successfully projected global urbanization from 2010 to 2100 based on the five SSPs. Dellink et al. (2015) forecasted country-level economic growth for 184 countries from 2010 to 2100 under the five SSPs.”
BackgroundInfluential
Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach
Leimbach, M., Kriegler, E., Roming, N., & Schwanitz, J. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.005 · Cited by 286
The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050
Pastor, A. V., Palazzo, A., Havlík, P., Biemans, H., Wada, Y., Obersteiner, M. H., Kabat, P., & Ludwig, F. (2019) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0287-1 · Cited by 306
Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries
van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Boskaljon, W., Neelis, M. L., Saygin, D., & Patel, M. K. (2016) · Resources, Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.04.016 · Cited by 305
Population development as a driver of coastal risk: Current trends and future pathways
Reimann, L., Vafeidis, A. T., & Honsel, L. E. (2023) · Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures · doi:10.1017/cft.2023.3 · Cited by 269
Key determinants of global land-use projections
Stehfest, E., van Zeist, W.-J., Valin, H., Havlik, P., Popp, A., Kyle, P., Tabeau, A., Mason-D’Croz, D., Hasegawa, T., Bodirsky, B. L., et al. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w · Cited by 247
Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System
Brown, M. E., Antle, J. M., Backlund, P., Carr, E. R., Easterling, W. E., Walsh, M. K., Ammann, C. M., Attavanich, W., Barrett, C. B., Bellemare, M. F., et al. (2015) · doi:10.7930/j0862dc7 · Cited by 269
Projected environmental benefits of replacing beef with microbial protein
Humpenöder, F., Bodirsky, B. L., Weindl, I., Lotze‐Campen, H., Linder, T., & Popp, A. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04629-w · Cited by 272
Changes in China’s lakes: climate and human impacts
Tao, S., Fang, J., Ma, S., Cai, Q., Xiong, X., Tian, D., Zhao, X., Fang, L., Zhang, H., Zhu, J., et al. (2019) · National Science Review · doi:10.1093/nsr/nwz103 · Cited by 228
REMIND2.1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits
Baumstark, L., Bauer, N., Benke, F., Bertram, C., Bi, S., Gong, C. C., Dietrich, J. P., Dirnaichner, A., Giannousakis, A., Hilaire, J., et al. (2021) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-14-6571-2021 · Cited by 245
Income, consumer preferences, and the future of livestock-derived food demand
Komarek, A. M., Dunston, S., Enahoro, D. K., Godfray, H. C. J., Herrero, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., Rich, K. M., Scarborough, P., Springmann, M., Sulser, T. B., et al. (2021) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102343 · Cited by 221
“Data on income and its change over time were based on the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) interpretations of the SSPs (Dellink et al., 2017).”
MethodInfluential
Global gridded GDP data set consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways
Wang, T., & Sun, F. (2022) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/s41597-022-01300-x · Cited by 220
The carbon costs of global wood harvests
Peng, L., Searchinger, T. D., Zionts, J., & Waite, R. (2023) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06187-1 · Cited by 239
“(2) Converting a secondary forest into a plantation Harvest scenario Monod function at the age of harvest Harvested after each rotation cycle and grows at plantation growth rate Non-harvest scenario Monod function at the age of harvest Continue growing at Monod function (3) Harvesting an existing plantation Harvest sc…”
Background
Global mitigation potential of carbon stored in harvested wood products
Johnston, C. M. T., & Radeloff, V. C. (2019) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1904231116 · Cited by 215
The Inequality of Climate Change From 1.5 to 2°C of Global Warming
King, A. D., & Harrington, L. J. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl078430 · Cited by 208
Eight grand challenges in socio-environmental systems modeling
Elsawah, S., Filatova, T., Jakeman, A. J., Kettner, A. J., Zellner, M. L., Athanasiadis, I. N., Hamilton, S. H., Axtell, R. L., Brown, D. G., Gilligan, J. M., et al. (2020) · Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling · doi:10.18174/sesmo.2020a16226 · Cited by 205
“With no feedbacks between the modeled dynamics of an environmental subsystem and the fixed social trend in ‘Scenario’ approach, the modeling may produce impossible or illogical results, such as continued exponential population growth after environmental destruction (Dellink et al., 2017).”
Background
Global construction materials database and stock analysis of residential buildings between 1970-2050
Marinova, S., Deetman, S., van der Voet, E., & Daioglou, V. (2019) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119146 · Cited by 201
“The future population projections are based on various assumptions related to economic, educational, policy and technical development of the globe and the individual regions, and are shaped by demographic rates and migration flows (van Vuuren et al., 2017; Dellink et al., 2017).”
Background
Effect of Fertility Policy Changes on the Population Structure and Economy of China: From the Perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Huang, J., Qin, D., Jiang, T., Wang, Y., Feng, Z., Zhai, J., Cao, L., Chao, Q., Xu, X., Wang, G., et al. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2018ef000964 · Cited by 200
“…by the IIASA, three gross domestic product (GDP) projections have been developed and are available from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the IIASA (Cuaresma, 2017; Dellink et al., 2017; Leimbach et al., 2017).”
Method
The impact of climate change on incomes and convergence in Africa
Baarsch, F., Granadillos, J. R., Hare, B., Knaus, M., Krapp, M., Schaeffer, M., & Lotze‐Campen, H. (2019) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104699 · Cited by 226
“GDP per capita in the low and high warming scenario is estimated for the period 2015–2050 using the SSP2 scenario as a baseline (Dellink et al., 2015).”
Method
Agricultural Development and Land Use Change in India: A Scenario Analysis of Trade‐Offs Between UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Hinz, R., Sulser, T. B., Huefner, R., Mason-D’Croz, D., Dunston, S., Nautiyal, S., Ringler, C., Schüngel, J., Tikhile, P., Wimmer, F., et al. (2020) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2019ef001287 · Cited by 202
“For this pathway, it is assumed that India's population will grow to more than 1.5 billion by the year 2030 while the economy is characterized by strong gross domestic product increases (Dellink et al., 2017; Samir & Lutz, 2017).”
BackgroundInfluential
Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity
Andrijevic, M., Cuaresma, J. C., Muttarak, R., & Schleussner, C. (2019) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0405-0 · Cited by 189
Combining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty
Soergel, B., Kriegler, E., Bodirsky, B., Bauer, N., Leimbach, M., & Popp, A. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22315-9 · Cited by 150
Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change
Buhaug, H., & von Uexkull, N. (2021) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708 · Cited by 187
Identifying effects of land use cover changes and climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and carbon stocks in Mexico
Mendoza‐Ponce, A., Corona-Núñez, R. O., Kraxner, F., Leduc, S., & Patrizio, P. (2018) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.004 · Cited by 183
Land use projections in China under global socioeconomic and emission scenarios: Utilizing a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework
Dong, N., You, L., Cai, W., Li, G., & Lin, H. (2018) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.04.001 · Cited by 172
Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and BenefitsPreprint
Carleton, T. A., Delgado, M., Greenstone, M., Houser, T., Hsiang, S., Hultgren, A., Jina, A., Kopp, R. E., McCusker, K. E., Nath, I., et al. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3224365 · Cited by 173
“Future projections of national incomes are derived from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Env-Growth model (Dellink et al., 2015) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) GDP model (Samir and Lutz, 2014), as part of the “socioeconomic conditions” (population,…”
Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth
Christensen, P., Gillingham, K. T., & Nordhaus, W. D. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1713628115 · Cited by 166
“but they do illustrate a substantial variance in global GDP levels by the end of the century” (41).”
Background
Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050
van Meijl, H., Havlík, P., Lotze‐Campen, H., Stehfest, E., Witzke, P., Domínguez, I. P., Bodirsky, B. L., van Dijk, M., Doelman, J., Fellmann, T., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabdc4 · Cited by 164
Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development
IPCC (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157940.004 · Cited by 203
Global multi-pollutant modelling of water quality: scientific challenges and future directions
Strokal, M., Spanier, J. E., Kroeze, C., Koelmans, A. A., Flörke, M., Franssen, W., Hofstra, N., Langan, S., Tang, T., van Vliet, M. T. H., et al. (2018) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2018.11.004 · Cited by 160
Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios
Frame, B., Lawrence, J., Ausseil, A.-G., Reisinger, A. R., & Daigneault, A. (2018) · Climate Risk Management · doi:10.1016/j.crm.2018.05.001 · Cited by 153
IPCC baseline scenarios have over-projected CO 2 emissions and economic growth
Burgess, M. G., Ritchie, J., Shapland, J., & Pielke, R. A. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abcdd2 · Cited by 168
“…relatedly, authoritative economic growth forecasts, including the IMF’s (upon which IEA’s 2020–2040 and SSPs’ pre-2018 projections are largely based; Dellink et al 2017, IEA 2019a), have historically tended to over-project growth on average, partly due to under-projecting business-cycle…”
BackgroundInfluential
The Carbon Inequality Era: An assessment of the global distribution of consumption emissions among individuals from 1990 to 2015 and beyond
Kartha, S., Kemp-Benedict, E. J., Ghosh, E., Nazareth, A., & Gore, T. (2020) · doi:10.21201/2020.6492 · Cited by 166
“We drew on the national GDP figures prepared by the OECD (Dellink et al. 2017) for SSP1 and SSP4.”
Method
The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060
Dellink, R., Lanzi, E., & Château, J. (2017) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1007/s10640-017-0197-5 · Cited by 168
Self-citation
Solar, wind and logistic substitution in global energy supply to 2050 – Barriers and implications
Lowe, R., & Drummond, P. (2021) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2021.111720 · Cited by 161
“This 2050 value lies between the (inflation-adjusted) projections for SSP3 and SSP4 produced by Dellink et al .”
Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger
Mason-D’Croz, D., Sulser, T. B., Wiebe, K., Rosegrant, M. W., Lowder, S. K., Nin‐Pratt, A., Willenbockel, D., Robinson, S., Zhu, T., Cenacchi, N., et al. (2018) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.12.006 · Cited by 169
Growing stocks of buildings, infrastructures and machinery as key challenge for compliance with climate targets
Krausmann, F., Wiedenhofer, D., & Haberl, H. (2020) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102034 · Cited by 146
Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050
van Vuuren, D. P., Zimm, C., Busch, S., Kriegler, E., Leininger, J., Messner, D., Nakićenović, N., Rockström, J., Riahi, K., Sperling, F., et al. (2022) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2022.01.003 · Cited by 152
Incorporating health co-benefits into technology pathways to achieve China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal: a modelling study
Zhang, S., An, K., Li, J., Weng, Y., Zhang, S., Wang, S., Cai, W., Wang, C., & Gong, P. (2021) · The Lancet Planetary Health · doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00252-7 · Cited by 145
Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context
Palazzo, A., Vervoort, J., Mason-D’Croz, D., Rutting, L., Havlík, P., Islam, S., Bayala, J., Valin, H., Kadi, H. A. K., Thornton, P. K., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.002 · Cited by 144
How much energy will buildings consume in 2100? A global perspective within a scenario framework
Levesque, A., Pietzcker, R., Baumstark, L., Stercke, S. D., Grübler, A., & Luderer, G. (2018) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.01.139 · Cited by 150
“Gross Domestic Product projections stem from Dellink et al.[41].”
Background
Assessing hydrological effects and performance of low impact development practices based on future scenarios modeling
Wang, M., Zhang, D. Q., Su, J., Dong, J. W., & Tan, S. K. (2018) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.01.096 · Cited by 143
Evaluating the effects of urban expansion on natural habitat quality by coupling localized shared socioeconomic pathways and the land use scenario dynamics-urban model
Song, S., Liu, Z., He, C., & Lu, W. (2020) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106071 · Cited by 137
Welfare in the 21st century: increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies
Lomborg, B. (2020) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119981 · Cited by 134
Low carbon transition of global building sector under 2- and 1.5-degree targets
Wang, H., Chen, W., & Shi, J. (2018) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.090 · Cited by 129
Improving poverty and inequality modelling in climate research
Rao, N. D., van Ruijven, B. J., Riahi, K., & Bosetti, V. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0004-x · Cited by 133
Projecting Global Urban Area Growth Through 2100 Based on Historical Time Series Data and Future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Li, X., Zhou, Y., Eom, J., Yu, S., & Asrar, G. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2019ef001152 · Cited by 133
“For example, SSP1 (sustainability) has the slowest pace of population growth and relatively rapid GDP growth, which is opposite to the SSP3 (region rivalry) scenario (Dellink et al., 2017; Kc & Lutz, 2017).”
Background
Influence of climate change impacts and mitigation costs on inequality between countries
Taconet, N., Méjean, A., & Guivarch, C. (2020) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02637-w · Cited by 133
Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties
Rogelj, J., Fricko, O., Meinshausen, M., Krey, V., Zilliacus, J. J. J., & Riahi, K. (2017) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms15748 · Cited by 130
Income inequality projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
Rao, N. D., Sauer, P., Gidden, M., & Riahi, K. (2018) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2018.07.001 · Cited by 133
Allocating planetary boundaries to large economies: Distributional consequences of alternative perspectives on distributive fairness
Lucas, P., Wilting, H. C., Hof, A. F., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2019) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.102017 · Cited by 143
“As there are large uncertainties in future developments in population and economic development, three distinct projections of population and GDP from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are used for the sensitivity analysis (Dellink et al., 2017; KC and Lutz, 2017).”
Method
Quantification of an efficiency–sovereignty trade-off in climate policy
Bauer, N., Bertram, C., Schultes, A., Klein, D., Luderer, G., Kriegler, E., Popp, A., & Edenhofer, O. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2982-5 · Cited by 127
Overcoming gender inequality for climate resilient development
Andrijevic, M., Cuaresma, J. C., Lissner, T., Thomas, A., & Schleussner, C. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19856-w · Cited by 127
Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C: a tale of turning around in no time?
Kriegler, E., Luderer, G., Bauer, N., Baumstark, L., Fujimori, S., Popp, A., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2018) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0457 · Cited by 133
“9 and SSP2-1.”
Influential
Dynamic linkage between natural resources, economic complexity, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Africa
Tabash, M. I., Mesagan, E. P., & Farooq, U. (2022) · Resources Policy · doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102865 · Cited by 125
Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects
Kreidenweis, U., Humpenöder, F., Stevanović, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Kriegler, E., Lotze‐Campen, H., & Popp, A. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/085001 · Cited by 121
Description of the REMIND Model (Version 1.6)Preprint
Luderer, G., Leimbach, M., Bauer, N., Kriegler, E., Baumstark, L., Bertram, C., Giannousakis, A., Hilaire, J., Klein, D., Levesque, A., et al. (2015) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2697070 · Cited by 119
Will the Sustainable Development Goals be fulfilled? Assessing present and future global poverty
Cuaresma, J. C., Fengler, W., Kharas, H., Bekhtiar, K., Brottrager, M., & Hofer, M. (2018) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-018-0083-y · Cited by 118
CCUS in China’s mitigation strategy: insights from integrated assessment modeling
Yu, S., Horing, J., Liu, Q., Dahowski, R. T., Davidson, C. L., Edmonds, J., Liu, B., McJeon, H. C., McLeod, J., Patel, P., et al. (2019) · International journal of greenhouse gas control · doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.03.004 · Cited by 118
Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Marangoni, G., Tavoni, M., Bosetti, V., Borgonovo, E., Capros, P., Fricko, O., Gernaat, D., Guivarch, C., Havlík, P., Huppmann, D., et al. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3199 · Cited by 125
“These are obtained by dividing the GDP level projections obtained with the ENV-Growth model by OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) specialists for the SSP scenarios 36 with the population levels above.”

Authors: Dellink, R., Chateau, J., Lanzi, E., & Magné, B.
Affiliations: Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques (FR)
Corresponding author: Dellink, Rob
ORCID: Dellink, Rob
Lanzi, Elisa
Venue: Global Environmental Change
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2017-01
Volume: 42
Pages: 200-214
ISSN: 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004
OpenAlex: W793980422
Cited by: 893
References: 36
Citations by year: 2026: 50 · 2025: 92 · 2024: 121 · 2023: 106 · 2022: 117 · 2021: 129 · 2020: 69 · 2019: 85 · 2018: 56 · 2017: 37
FWCI: 93.18
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
Keywords: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, GDP per capita, convergence, total factor productivity, population growth, physical capital, employment, human capital, fossil fuel resources, energy resources, economic crisis

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Overview

Integrity signals

Verification

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Citations

Cites

Cited by

Related

Metadata

Record

About these checks